Looking at the 0.5”/50th% cluster analyses from @gingerwx.bsky.social from the 28/1200 UTC model cycle, it seems to be an ECMWF (wetter) vs. GFS/GGEM (drier) battle. Subtle changes will have an outsized influence on the final outcome.
I study high-impact weather, help develop high-resolution models to improve weather forecasts, and mentor scientists. Constantly striving to help those around me flourish. My views expressed here are mine alone.