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Burkina Faso - Key Message Update: Agropastoral production prospects negatively affected by El Niño conditions, September 2026 - January 2027
Country: Burkina Faso
Source: Famine Early Warning System Network
Please refer to the attached file.
Key Messages
Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes persist in Karo Peli Province in September. Poor rainfall is limiting the availability of wild foods as well as constraining early harvests. Despite the availability of cereals on the market, household incomes are insufficient to purchase enough food. Households are therefore forced to reduce both the quantity and number of meals consumed per day. However, food assistance received in previous months remains the main source of food and is helping prevent severe food consumption gaps. Households will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between October and January 2027. Harvests expected from October onward will be marginal due to the limited area cultivated and the negative impacts of dry spells. Food purchases, although limited, and additional market garden production will help limit extreme coping strategies, such as going an entire day without food.
Households in provinces facing significant security challenges in the north and east are facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in September. Despite diversified income sources, including artisanal gold mining, remittances from relatives, and firewood sales, access to cereals on the market remains limited. Food assistance is helping to reduce food consumption gaps. Between October 2026 and January 2027, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected. New harvests, although reduced due to prolonged dry spells and attacks by grain-eating birds, will represent a primary source of food. Dry season production around accessible water catchments and food purchases at relatively more favorable prices will help reduce food consumption gaps.
Agropastoral production prospects are expected to be below those of last season. Although access to fields has improved somewhat, the late onset of the season limited the area planted. Longer dry spells recorded between August and September in most regions negatively affected yields, particularly for maize, the main crop. Poor and unevenly distributed rainfall also negatively affected pasture development and the replenishment of water catchments, particularly in the north of the country. In addition, since September, grain-eating birds have caused significant losses to cereal crops, including millet, sorghum, and rice, in the Soum and Liptako regions and surrounding areas of the Yaadga and Koulsés regions.
Insecurity, characterized by attacks by armed terrorist groups, remains the main factor limiting household access to food and typical sources of income. Security incidents remain high, particularly in the north and east of the country, and continue to drive internal population displacement, with 11,316 people displaced in August, although the overall trend is toward populations returning to their areas of origin. These incidents disrupt regular market supply, particularly in the north and east of the country, with food prices remaining atypically above average in Diapaga (47 percent for maize) and Gayéri (37 percent for sorghum).
