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chuckcbpp.bsky.social

@chuckcbpp.bsky.social
1.9K followers 56 following 218 posts
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
While the potential economic upsides of AI are immense, so are the potential economic downsides. Tax policy needs to help us prepare for those risks. news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and...
news.bloomberglaw.com
Raise the Corporate Tax Rate to Stem AI-Related Economic Inequity
Opinion: AI’s economic impacts may include more inequity and job dislocations and losses. A higher corporate rate would raise substantial revenue from the wealthy without stifling innovation or growth...
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Also, even key tech leaders recognize that the current tilt in tax treatment in favor of capital over paychecks makes no sense in an AI economy. moores.samaltman.com?isPin=false
moores.samaltman.com
Moore's Law for Everything
We need to design a system that embraces this technological future and taxes the assets that will make up most of the value in that world–companies and land–in order to fairly distribute some of the c...
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
A higher corporate rate of say 30% wouldn’t rebuild our revenue base by itself, but it could anchor a broader tax-reform package, eg. restricting interest deductibility given expensing, deter profit shifting, higher rates for pass-throughs www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
hamiltonproject.org
Taking on tax: Toward progressive revenue-raising business tax reform - The Hamilton Project
Hamilton Project director Aviva Aron-Dine discusses three new Hamilton Project proposals that offer ideas to raise revenue from business tax reform.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Research suggests that nearly all of the corporate tax falls on excess profits. Market concentration implications of foundation models: The Invisible Hand of ChatGPT | Brookings
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Excess profits are rising, in part, because of declining competition and increasing concentration among corporations, a trend that AI may reinforce.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The corporate tax would be a relatively efficient way to raise revenue because a large and growing share of the corporate tax base consists of “excess profits” or “rents” www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
cbpp.org
Policymakers Should Raise Corporate Tax Rates as Alternative to Harmful and Regressive Tariffs
Policymakers should abandon the Administration’s economically harmful and regressive tariffs and pursue more efficient and equitable revenue-raising policies.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
There’s lots of room to raise it after Trump and Rs cut it below what even corporate lobbyists were asking for and it failed to deliver on their promises:
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
A progressive tax on capital that raises lots of $ -- Bingo – raise the corporate tax rate.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The labor share of national income has been falling for decades and now many economists warn widespread AI adoption could cause even more income to flow to capital owners – and, therefore, so should taxes.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
After taxes and transfers, our country is the most unequal among our wealthy peers. And, AI could increase inequality, i.e. the revenue we need to raise should be progressive.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
In 2025, federal revenue was 17.2% of GDP, the same as in 1963 (before Medicaid and Medicare were even enacted). As a result, despite a growing economy, the deficit last year exceeded $1.75 trillion. We need more revenue.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Our UI system, even before AI, needed extensive updating. Policymakers should also take a fresh look at wage insurance, which has been used successfully on a small scale to help some workers facing globalization-related job losses. www.nber.org/papers/w32464
nber.org
Wage Insurance for Displaced Workers
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
On so many levels, we are not ready for AI, including fiscally. We already had large budget and investments deficits. Trump made them worse by taking away food assistance and healthcare. With AI now in the mix, it could lead to labor market disruption
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
New: Even before the rise of AI, the case for raising the corporate tax rate was compelling. Now, I think it’s overwhelming. news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and...
news.bloomberglaw.com
Raise the Corporate Tax Rate to Stem AI-Related Economic Inequity
Opinion: AI’s economic impacts may include more inequity and job dislocations and losses. A higher corporate rate would raise substantial revenue from the wealthy without stifling innovation or growth...
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Kudos to Senators Warren and Moreno for coming together to work on a serious bipartisan proposal, and for helping start a serious bipartisan conversation.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Senators Warren and Moreno themselves recognized the need to not just rely on taxing the very wealthiest. They rightly didn’t exempt earnings between the current cap and a new cap from Social Security taxes (i.e. their proposal has no “donut hole”).
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
But it’s also arguable that it could be more politically viable to raise taxes more broadly in the Social Security context, which could allow some of the revenue from the highest earners from raising the cap to be left for other purposes.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
There’s no question there are also other progressive taxes on capital income & corporations, which could help fund these kinds of investments.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Raising the wage cap all the way up the earnings scale and using it for Social Security solvency means that this revenue won’t be available for these other needs.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Critics have pointed out the opportunity costs that policymakers need to wrestle with, & they have a point. We have many needs - too many ppl can’t afford food, rent, and health care & we need to invest in bldg blocks of our economy like educ, science, & clean energy.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
While granting it was smaller, it seems worth highlighting there’s precedent for this approach: in 1994, policymakers eliminated the Medicare tax wage cap, which was once the same as Social Security’s.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
It is also sound policy, if supplemented with policies to limit tax avoidance by preventing the wealthy from shifting their earned income to lower-taxed sources.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Instead, some have criticized that it does not solve the entire solvency problem on its own. But it’s unlikely that any one policy change will be the full solution; getting more than halfway there would be a good start.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
One might expect fiscal hawks to welcome a serious proposal that could close more than half of Social Security’s financing gap while reducing the overall deficit.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Senators Warren and Moreno recently proposed a plan to lift the Social Security wage cap to help avoid benefit cuts and reduce its financing gap. This is a serious bipartisan proposal and fixing Social Security will likely require bipartisan compromise. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Bernie Moreno and Elizabeth Warren: Our Plan to Save Social Security
To save the program, we need to eliminate the payroll tax cap.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Going fwd, the Trump Admin plans to dramatically cut the number of audits Biden planned. Today House Republicans take a step toward that by proposing a destructive $1.4B enforcement cut. Congress should not signal that tax cheats can proceed w limited oversight.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Going fwd, the Trump Admin plans to dramatically cut the number of audits Biden planned. Today House Republicans take a step toward that by proposing a destructive $1.4B enforcement cut. Congress should not signal that tax cheats can proceed w limited oversight.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Fewer sophisticated auditors means that fewer wealthy people will be audited. See below how audits of wealthy people plummeted since 2010 when Republicans began their latest round of gutting the IRS.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Fewer sophisticated auditors means that fewer wealthy people will be audited. See below how audits of wealthy people plummeted since 2010 when Republicans began their latest round of gutting the IRS.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Currently, *the IRS has fewer auditors than it has had since the 1950s* – not a typo! – because Republicans have previously gutted the enforcement budget.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
House Republicans proposed another reckless cut in the IRS budget. The proposed 9% cut would take the IRS budget to 44% below its 2010 level. This gutting of the IRS is a betrayal of honest taxpayers. It should be rejected out of hand
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Most troubling: Looking at the poorest 40% of kids of tax filers, 3 in 4 get $0 from the proposal (prelim estimate). This is challenging given that low-inc fams have been hit hard by the Trump tariffs and tend to already face the most pressing affordability challenges.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
For example, a married couple with 2 kids & income at $50k gets $780, while a couple without kids & income at $50k gets $1,780. A married couple with no kids & income at $92k gets over $6,000.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Problem 2: The proposal gives more to many ppl w/out kids than to families w/ kids, even though raising kids is expensive. While it uses the MIT Living Wage Calculator, which shows basic $ needed for different fam sizes, the proposal itself doesn’t make adjustments for # of kids.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Problem 1: People w/ larger affordability challenges get less (or nothing): a single worker making $20k, far below their $46k cost of living income target, only gets $390. A person w/ inc at the $46k target gets $3,340. (It’s good that ppl with high incomes don’t benefit.)
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
The Van Hollen-Beyer et al tax cut bill was released today so just re-upping our prior thread and adding a few tweets with numbers now that more details are available:
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
For example: a single adult making just above the poverty line ($17,250) would receive an EITC of $630, up from $175 under current law.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
These are adults not raising kids at home who work for low pay and who currently receive a tiny or no EITC & pay a lot in payroll taxes. Sen. Booker proposes to restore the modest expansion that was enacted during the pandemic.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
EITC: The Booker proposal recognizes – as all policymakers should – that it makes no sense for the federal government to tax 6 million working adults who aren’t raising kids at home into or deeper into poverty.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Sen. Booker’s proposal fixes this glaring gap by providing children in families with lower incomes the same Child Tax Credit as children in higher-income families. He also proposes an increase in the maximum CTC.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
CTC expansion: One of the most disappointing aspects of OBBBA is that Rs expanded the CTC but structured it so that 19M kids get less than the full $2,200 credit, even though 169 House Rs voted in 2024 for a CTC expansion that would have reached most of these kids.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
In better news, the proposal includes two key provisions that help people with the greatest affordability challenges and have high bang for the buck: a Child Tax Credit expansion and an EITC expansion.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
The sheer cost of the standard deduction proposal could leave little progressive revenue for other priorities.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
The problem: there are many compelling claims on these progressive revenues, including policies that address critical affordability problems-eg reversing Medicaid & food assistance cuts, restoring PTC enhancements so ppl can afford ACA coverage, investing in housing & child care.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
After Trump’s latest round of costly tax cuts for the rich, Booker proposes needed correctives: – an increase in the corp tax rate & other corporate tax improvements – higher taxes on stock buybacks – higher top tax rates – stricter limits on exec compensation deductions
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
The proposal does have a solid set of offsets.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
A few examples – assume all married couples with no kids: - Household w/30k in earnings does not benefit. - Household w/$50k in earnings gains $1,780. - Household w/$300k in income gains $10,272.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
So increasing the standard deduction further doesn’t help many low/moderate income families much (& many not at all). And if not phased out, it gives big tax cuts to higher income people.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
As a result, today more people’s incomes are already below the current law standard deduction & many more high-income people take the standard deduction today than before the TCJA – 8 or 9 out of 10 compared to about 2 out of 3 previously.
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chuckcbpp.bsky.social @chuckcbpp.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Why doesn’t it help low-inc ppl more? The TCJA and OBBBA already more than doubled the standard deduction and expanded the CTC, paid for by eliminating the personal exemption. In an otherwise regressive law, these were efficient reforms.
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