Sign in

Circudyne

@christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy
2 followers 0 following 56 posts

Circular economy transformation through cultural storytelling, worldbuilding, and strategy. Join The Circudyne Letter or work with Circudyne Studio to build the future. 🌉 bridged from ⁂ www.circudyne.com, follow @ap.brid.gy to interact

PostsRepliesMedia
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 05/10/2026
Most leaders know their company must change. But there is not a lot of change happening. Before asking how circularity transformation works, we ask whether it can happen at all.
circudyne.com
Possibility of Change
Last week I closed Summer Reading 2026 with a promise: this new season of the _Letter_ would examine the nature of transformation itself. I meant the anatomy of the process: what do Lean, Six Sigma, Agile, and their cousins have in common? As their successor, what would circularity need to emulate? We'll get there. But a few days of thinking about it have led somewhere more basic. Before asking how circularity transformation works, it seems fair to ask whether it can happen at all. Are firms, as presently constructed, capable of change on a scale circularity requires? The answer is a conditional _yes._ This season, we'll explore the conditions. ## The spirit is willing Every year PwC asks thousands of chief executives how they see the road ahead. It poses an incisive recurring question: if your company continues on its current path, how long will it remain economically viable? In the 2025 summary (the last time they publicly disclosed the response to that question), 42 percent said ten years or less. That is a remarkable statistic. And it is more than idle worry. In the same survey, nearly two-thirds of CEOs said they had taken at least one significant step in the past five years to change how their company makes money. Yet new businesses accounted for only about 7 percent of revenue over that span. The intent is there. The results are lacking. The 2026 survey, fielded last fall among 4,454 CEOs, shows a differential focus. On average, CEOs spend 47 percent of their calendar on matters that resolve within a year, and 16 percent on matters five years out or more. In a finding PwC itself calls counterintuitive, the CEOs most worried about their company's long-term viability spend _more_ time than their peers on the short term. The question that concerns CEOs most, by a clear margin, is whether they are transforming fast enough to keep up with technology, including AI. Only three in ten say their company tests new ideas rapidly with customers. PwC titled the closing section of its report "Dynamism or denial?" These CEOs are not fools. Last summer, citing the logic of Clayton Christensen, I argued that incumbents usually stumble while doing exactly what they were built to do, and doing it well. Next quarter's KPIs set the rhythm of what passes for good management these days. The Innovator’s Dilemma and Circularity TransformationClayton Christensen’s iconic analysis reveals why well-run companies at the peak of their powers are routinely vulnerable to disruption. We examine his thesis through the lens of circularity disruption.CircudyneChristian Rishel The _urgent_ crowds out the _important_ , and the habit is self-reinforcing. ## Seeing red from the other side of the counter If leaders are stuck, their customers are restless. They have been for a while. A Future To Look Forward ToThe linear economy traps us in novelty, obsolescence, and extraction. Circular systems offer liberation: more wealth, more beauty, more meaning.CircudyneChristian Rishel A year ago, in A Future To Look Forward To, I listed the anxieties of the moment. The first was a question: will our children be better off than us? The 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer has since given an answer. Across 28 countries, 32 percent say yes, down four points in a year. In France and Germany it is fewer than one in ten; in the United States, about one in five. Contentment follows progress, and most wealthy countries no longer believe they are making any. An exception is Australia, where the figure rose five points. Australia also has one of the densest fleets of rooftop solar on earth. Keep that in mind later in the season when we get to the catalysts of change. Underneath the numbers is something more specific. Whole segments of customers have changed what they need, what they like, and what they want, and the brands they depend on have not kept up. What they want has been moving toward enough: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. Luxury has begun to mean joy, craft, and fit rather than scarcity. People sense the care nobody was supposed to see, as Walt Disney understood decades ago. And they notice its absence just as quickly: many serve themselves when institutions like brands and governments offer chaos instead of value. More Joy, Less WorkAbundant energy and intelligence are arriving just as the culture demands simplicity. The brand that sells “enough” will own the biggest business opportunity in history.CircudyneChristian RishelReassurance is a Strategic CapacityThe performance economy, at its best, creates the conditions for play. At its worst, it creates the conditions for vigilance.CircudyneChristian RishelAre You a Punk?When institutions produce the chaos, order becomes the rebellion. The punks of 2026 don’t sneer. They say “no thank you” and build something without you.CircudyneChristian Rishel What they get instead is manufactured dependence. A firm that has lost the capacity to serve its customers manufactures reasons for them to stay. On platforms the same decay has a less polite name. When customers balk at a worse deal, the say-do gap gets blamed on them. More often the firm has lost the imagination to make what they asked for. So customers leave, quietly. They make their old stuff last. There is no boycott and no angry letter. These conscious non-consumers don't register on anyone's dashboard, because demand models work like a metal detector: very good at finding what's there, and unable to discern what's walked away. Two-thirds of the CEOs in PwC's survey reported trust concerns last year. They can see the customers who complain. They can't see the ones who left. Douglas Holt would recognize this as a myth market, and a wide-open one at that. The mythology gap, the distance between how people live and how they want to live, is wide, and very few brands are telling a story that closes it. Gaps like this do not stay open for long. In Holt's history, the brands that became icons were the ones that sided with the counterculture first. Someone will fill this one. The rebels are already making a New Deal for themselves. What they lack are allies. Building Cultural Momentum: The Connection DomainCultural mythology shapes what people want more than rational analysis. We adopt behaviors and identities by watching others embody them successfully. Shared experiences accelerate the cultural momentum that makes circularity feel inevitable.CircudyneChristian RishelClosing the Mythology GapWhen change outpaces our stories, organizations lose coherence. Here we explore how cultural renewal shapes fitness for the Circular Century.CircudyneChristian RishelA New Deal You Can Acquire For YourselfThe circular economy means personal sovereignty over your energy, attention, time, and things. A New Deal you acquire for yourself.CircudyneChristian Rishel ## An evergreen example So is change possible? The best evidence I know comes from the example of Lean, which started off as the Toyota Production System. Toyota Production System: Lean Was Born CircularLean’s founding text by Taiichi Ohno shows that the most celebrated efficiency revolution in business history was circular from the start — and hands circularity transformation its strongest precedent.CircudyneChristian Rishel In his account, Taiichi Ohno recalls that before the oil crisis of 1973, when it came to industry's position towards Toyota's methods, he "found little interest." Inside the company, the system was already mature. Kanban had been proliferating for years. But hardly anyone outside it cared. Then the oil embargo hit. By 1974 Japan's economy had fallen to zero growth, and many automobile companies were suffering. But Toyota's fortunes were on the upswing. Suddenly everyone wanted to know its secret. There are two lessons to draw from that history. The first is hopeful: change from inside an incumbent is possible. Ohno was an executive at a family-controlled company that was about as establishment as it gets. And he changed the game anyway. The second is sobering: the remedy everyone needed waited years to be adopted. The oil embargo provided the needed motivation to drive the system's interest, but the underlying value was always there. Circularity's situation resembles Lean's in those pre-1974 years. The value is there to be captured, but the imperative to apply it does not line up with the incentive and permission structures of the people who could use it best. This season we will focus on closing that gap: how a company comes to embrace the change without waiting for the forcing function. ## Possibilities _for_ change The season follows three lines of inquiry. * **Is change possible** within existing firms to the degree circularity requires? We will take inventory of the great transformations of the last century — Lean, Total Quality, Six Sigma, Agile, and some you may have forgotten, like Y2K and omnichannel — and ask what made the durable ones last. * **What drives it?** My bet is that the push comes from below, from customers who have quietly started repairing, keeping, and non-consuming. Our institutions that once promised order now produce chaos. That is the _casus belli_ of today's counterculture. * **What catalyzes it?** Here we return to the Three Dynamos — distributed power, ambient intelligence, and recombinant matter — the bill of materials for the Circular Century. Ohno began at the end of the line and worked backward, letting each process pull what it needed from the one before it. In time the pull reached all the way to the dealer's showroom. This season starts at the end too: at the Last Moment of Truth, the moment a product's first life ends and something must happen next. It is the moment the customer knows the product best. It is where a product either goes on to another life or simply stops. And it is the only place a claim of circularity can be checked. ## The takeaway Most leaders already know they must change. This season asks what it takes for a company to actually do it. The best answer we have says to start at the end. _Below the line are practitioner insights reserved for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats are saved for the builders._ Join the Dynamos * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 28/09/2026
A season spent with canonical works on circularity, systems, strategy, Lean, and craft.
circudyne.com
Summer Reading 2026
## Summer 2026 series conclusion This season of _the Circudyne Letter_ marked the beginning of what I intend to make an annual tradition: summer reading. A time to revisit books I haven't read in a while (this time through the lens of circularity transformation), or make time for books I should have read by now but haven't. I was keen to get a broader understanding of some of the foundational works of circularity, and return to some familiar works that have influenced my thinking about how to advance the transformation. Writing this as I am during a September nor'easter, summer seems a long time ago. But the takeaways are still fresh. > 🔜 Next week the _Letter_ begins its sixth season, in which we will examine the nature of transformation architecture itself. Brace yourself for change. ## Throughlines ### There is no data from the future One of the conceits of the present moment I'm keen to help moderate is the substitution of data for imagination. Data is a popular bet settler and argument ender, and has its place in guiding decisions. But what happens when data is not available — as is the case with the future? Meadows, Forrester, Popper and Kuhn, and Fadell each arrived at this notion in their particular way. And of course, Martin has popularized the bifurcation of business knowledge based on the availability of data. ### Known limits Perhaps it's primacy bias, but one of the indelible remarks of the season came from Stahel in his introductory invocation of Saint-Exupéry's admonition: > When you want to build a ship, do not begin by gathering wood, cutting boards and organising work gangs, but rather create the longing for the sea, awaken within men the desire for the vast and endless sea. The founders of circularity, and the disciplines that precede and undergird it, can be well understood by the limits they saw in their project. Their list of known unknowns is long, and almost always revolves around the behavior of human beings, their understanding of complicated ideas, and their ability to change. Stahel saw the need to make men long for circularity, and then set out to persuade them of it instead. The desire for the vast and endless sea — as it were — beats in far too few hearts. That's our challenge. ### The lineage of modern circularity It's a straight line back from Stahel to Meadows to Forrester. Forrester is a curious node in the system map of intellectual history; not only can _the_ _Limits to Growth_ crowd trace back to him, but also today's move-fast-and-break-things algorithm builders. Based on his book, I think Forrester would embrace the former but lament its villainization of growth, and be shocked by and possibly aghast at the chaos unleashed by the latter in the pursuit of growth. This may explain why circularity has not taken hold in the Silicon Valley culture to the degree one might have expected. ## Notable takeaways Ohno's origin story of Lean exposed hard points upon which to extend its principles into the realm of circularity. Alexander, McLuhan, and Fadell showed how to make objects in the Circular Century beautiful, legible, and buildable. Chip and Dan Heath offered a digestif: how to wrap it all up into a story that sticks. Quite by accident, the syllabus of this season exemplified the theory of art and science that Forrester put forth: that art comes first, science organizes and compresses it; and yields the foundation for new art. ## The Season at a glance ### Circular foundations The founders tackle questions of limits, waste, and time. The Circular Economy: A User’s GuideThe summer reading season opens with Walter Stahel’s introductory text — a book that reaches for what’s still missing: a longing for the circular economy.CircudyneChristian RishelCircularity Summer Camp: The Movement’s Founding TextsThe founding texts of circularity — Benyus, McDonough & Braungart, and Stahel — read together. Three merit badges earned, and one still on the table.CircudyneChristian Rishel ### Systems A shared understanding and vocabulary of stocks, flows, and feedback; thoughts on paradigm shifts. Thinking in SystemsDonella Meadows built an exquisite analytical toolkit, then told us exactly where its utility ends. The future can only be envisioned, not analyzed.CircudyneChristian RishelIndustrial Dynamics: The Wellspring of CircularityThe summer reading series arrives at the wellspring: Jay Wright Forrester’s 1961 book, the bedrock beneath circularity’s systems thinking.CircudyneChristian RishelThe Logic of Scientific Revolutions — The Circudyne LetterTwo esteemed points of view on the nature of progress, how it applies to strategy, and what it means for circularity transformation.CircudyneChristian Rishel ### Strategy How to choose a future without perfect information; why it's risky not to choose; why good management, in the wrong circumstances, is often the culprit. Playing to Win — The Circudyne LetterStrategy is a choice, so you might as well choose to win. For circularity leaders, the framework offers an opportunity and a moment of truth.CircudyneChristian RishelThe Innovator’s Dilemma and Circularity TransformationClayton Christensen’s iconic analysis reveals why well-run companies at the peak of their powers are routinely vulnerable to disruption. We examine his thesis through the lens of circularity disruption.CircudyneChristian Rishel ### Lean The celebrated efficiency revolution, and the seed of circularity that it contains. Toyota Production System: Lean Was Born CircularLean’s founding text by Taiichi Ohno shows that the most celebrated efficiency revolution in business history was circular from the start — and hands circularity transformation its strongest precedent.CircudyneChristian Rishel ### Craft, media, build Systems-level beauty; what McLuhan meant by media; and a repeatable method for making (and improving) new-to-world products. A Pattern Language — making places that serve human needsChristopher Alexander built a language for making places that serve human needs beautifully and economically. It doubles as a manual for choosing well where no data exists — the exact position circularity strategists occupy today.CircudyneChristian RishelUnderstanding Media: Why Circularity Needs a Media StrategyMarshall McLuhan is as pertinent today as he was in 1964, and the reason is his definition of media, which is broader than ours. Circularity transformation needs a media strategy in his sense of the word. Here is what he meant.CircudyneChristian RishelBuild: Fadell’s Repeatable Method for Disruptive ProductsCircularity transformation needs a cornucopia of new-to-world products, made quickly and well. Tony Fadell’s method for making them is repeatable.CircudyneChristian Rishel ### A digestif Turning all of the above into something people can swallow. Made to Stick: Circularity Needs More Cannes, Less DavosCircularity is a complicated idea that needs to be simplified to be remembered. The Heath brothers wrote the book on that, and it points to a story we should have been telling all along.CircudyneChristian Rishel ## Parting thought The science of circularity is far ahead of its art. I think that's the problem. It's time to tell the story. > 📬 _Thank you for reading along this summer._ * * * _Next season we examine best practices in transformation architecture. Dynamo members support the mission and receive unabridged content._ Join the Dynamos
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 14/09/2026
Circularity transformation needs a cornucopia of new-to-world products, made quickly and well. Tony Fadell's method for making them is repeatable.
circudyne.com
Build
The summer reading series, like the season it's named for, is nearing its close. For this penultimate week I chose _Build_ by Tony Fadell, the product manager and entrepreneur behind the iPod, the iPhone, and the Nest thermostat. ‎Build‎Business & Personal Finance · 2022Apple BooksTony Fadell The series has been heavy on theory and strategy. Circularity depends on both, so I hope you understand the emphasis. But _Build_ is a pivot toward execution, and it arrives at the right moment. We have spent a summer with Christensen on why incumbents fail to disrupt themselves, with Martin on how to choose a future before the data exists, and with Ohno on how a discipline outlasts its founder. Fadell exemplifies these and more, and gave us a map to follow. I'm interested in his perspective because he is arguably our foremost, and most consistent, creator of disruptive products. What makes his record worth studying is less the stature of the products (exalted as they are) than the fact that he did it three times, at three companies, and can explain the method. Circularity transformation is a disruptive prospect that has to please customers even as it moves quickly. It needs a repeatable playbook for making crowd-pleasing, new-to-world products. _Build_ offers one. ## The book in brief Fadell organizes the book along the arc of his career: the noble early failure at General Magic, the journeyman years at Philips, the iPod and iPhone at Apple, and the founding of Nest. The chapters are short and have fun titles ("Assholes," "I Quit," "Heartbeats and Handcuffs"), and each carries a story from his arc. The through-line is the "General Magic problem," what he calls building the right technology a decade too soon, alleviating a pain point that does not yet exist for most people. I recall General Magic with a fondness that borders on reverence. Yet, I've never actually held, let alone used, its product. That's because Palm beat them with a far less ambitious product that they actually delivered. That failure is the fuel of Fadell's fire to this day. It is the shared inspiration for almost every imperative presented in the book: find the "why" before the "what"; make the intangible tangible; ship V1 to early adopters, fix it in V2, build the business in V3; and when the landscape is about to shift under you, shift it yourself. Disrupting the iPod with the iPhone is the canonical example of self-disruption, and his telling of that is a canonical reference for Christensen's theory. Why Self-Disrupt?The environmental imperative is the reason to begin. This is about why you’ll be glad you did it. Have to versus get to. Part I of a two-part conclusion.CircudyneChristian Rishel He writes as a practitioner rather than a theorist, but the theory is apparent for anyone who has read Christensen and Martin. Fadell's lived experience is disruption theory with the names filled in. ## Shoveling data into the void Fadell is interested in decisions. He sorts the big ones into two kinds. Data-driven decisions can be studied and defended, and most of the team will agree. Opinion-driven decisions are the ones you make "without the benefit of sufficient data to guide you or back you up." His rule is that a first-generation product is governed by the second kind of decision, whether the team likes it or not. "If a product is really new, there's nothing to compare it to, nothing to optimize, nothing to test." Teams that keep asking for research anyway are, in his phrase, shoveling data into the void. "There was never going to be enough data to make an assured choice." I accept the distinction and push back on his choice of words. "Opinion" implies caprice, a because-I-said-so. What Fadell is describing is _judgment_. A lack of data does not mean uninformed. Data is not distributed evenly across every decision space; it clusters where the past has already happened. Disruption means new-to-world, and new-to-world means real feedback lies in the future. There can be no data from the future, which is where our Circular Century currently lives. What stands in for data is judgment, and Fadell tells us what makes judgment feel assured rather than arbitrary: vision. "Vision provides assurance" is my gloss of his approach, and the sequence holds its magic. For V1, vision first, customer insight second, data third. For V2, once there are paying customers, the order flips. His own example is the iPod's move to Windows, which he and his colleagues had to win against Steve Jobs with revenue numbers. The vision had done its work; it was time to put it third. Two things make this more than a vocabulary quibble. First, Fadell's version of A/B testing is the cleanest statement of a point I made previously: you can test where the Buy button goes, but "if the basic functionality can flex and change depending on the whims of an A/B test, then there is no core." That is why I've argued that "What would have to be true?" is a better opening question than "How might we?" for disruptive work. “What Would Have To Be True?”You cannot A|B test your way to system change. Why circular transformation requires asking ‘What Would Have to Be True?’ instead of ‘How Might We?’CircudyneChristian Rishel Second, he identifies what makes judgment something other than one person's opinion. The superpower of every great product manager, he says, is empathy. I've called it a strategic capacity. He calls it a job requirement. Empathy Is a Strategic CapacityIt enables worldbuilding where time and value are not yet fixed, providing a path to product–market fit before markets, metrics, or demand signals exist.CircudyneChristian Rishel ## Promethean glimpses The collection of prototype photos is one of the book's most charming ingredients. The first iPod's was a chunk of styrofoam. The early iPhone prototypes bear little resemblance to what shipped. The Nest box, printed and held and rewritten a year before launch, is where the story of the product was written, because the physical limits of the cardboard package forced the team to decide what a customer should understand first, second, and third. Fadell credits design thinking by name, and the evidence is on the page: prototyping aligned the team, managed progress, and kept the customer's welfare in the room. I won't second-guess that emphasis. But reading him I kept thinking of something Roger Martin says about prototypes. Although there is no data from the future, you can steal a slice of it and run an experiment. That is what a prototype is: a Promethean glimpse of a possible future, smuggled into the present where it can be handled. Fadell's habit of writing the press release before the product is the same kind of theft with words. If you launched today, could you send it out and have it be mostly true? That's how you know when you're done. The practice calls to mind Julian Bleecker's design fiction, with its whimsical artifacts from the future made to provoke the imagination. What Fadell adds is discipline: the artifact exists to manage internal stakeholders on a product, to get engineering and marketing and the CEO to see the same thing before it exists. That is worldbuilding at product scale. The question for circularity is what happens when the audience for the prototype is the customer. ## The package is hot, the pavilion is cool Fadell has a rule of compression. It's his ticket to simplicity: ideas must be distilled down in order to fit certain formats and contexts. Packaging is a microcosm of the marketing. A complex feature on the Nest thermostat that took 150 words to explain resolved down to three: Rush Hour Rewards. "You can't say everything everywhere." His messaging architecture, a grid of pains and painkillers and the emotional and rational reasons to buy, exists so that every touchpoint says one true thing. And his customers do not distinguish among those touchpoints: "your advertising and your app and your customer support agents, all of it is your company. Your brand. All of it is one thing." That is a product guy's reformulation of the Lee Clow axiom "everything a brand does is media." The Element of Integration: Crafting Circular AdvantageIn which we use Apple as a lens to understand the power of treating brand, strategy, and organization as a single unit. Circular business models require this same unified approach to succeed—tomorrow’s integrated firms will represent an evolutionary step beyond today’s models.CircudyneChristian Rishel It also connects to Marshall McLuhan, whom we read last week. McLuhan is the reason I think Fadell's compression applies to the message and not to the medium. A package sells what is in it. A press release fits on a page. Both are hot media, filled in for you. Fadell, as much as anyone, helped make the Apple keynote format what it is: a hot medium of unusual power, where the messaging platform and the product heartbeat merge into a singular go to market event, and the story rehearsed daily for months drove the product itself. It works for Apple. Understanding Media: Why Circularity Needs a Media StrategyMarshall McLuhan is as pertinent today as he was in 1964, and the reason is his definition of media, which is broader than ours. Circularity transformation needs a media strategy in his sense of the word. Here is what he meant.CircudyneChristian Rishel What circularity is selling is different. It is not a single product but a way of living. That calls for a cool medium, the kind the audience participates in. Alex McDowell says the worldbuilder's job is not to imagine the world and show it, but to build a street corner in that world and put the participant on it. Worldbuilding for Circular Transformation | CircudynamicsWorldbuilding creates experiential prototypes of circular futures, releasing emotional energy that powers transformation beyond logic.CircudyneChristian Rishel A World's Fair pavilion does that. It promotes a feeling, a multisensory what-if that the visitor walks through at her own pace. Even that needs economy of thought. Nobody remembers what Pepsi's expo pavilion said about Pepsi in 1964. Everyone remembers the song ("It's a Small World"). Nobody remembers General Electric's product claims; everyone who visited them there remembers that there's "A Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow." The refrain is Fadell's compression applied to a feeling: there is goodness in the world, and we're making it better. The package and the pavilion are both true, and both needed. The package sells the product. The pavilion sells the world the product belongs in. * * * ## Four of five Early in the book Fadell lists the characteristics of a company likely to change the status quo. It is wholly new, or combines existing technology in a way the competition can't make or understand. It solves a real pain that a lot of people feel daily. The technology can deliver on the vision, infrastructure included. Leadership is not dogmatic about what the solution looks like. And it thinks about the problem in a way that's new, but makes sense the moment you hear it. Readers of this Letter will notice that four of those map onto the domains of Circudynamics without strain. The novel combination is Craft. The daily pain in a large market is Connection. The deliverable technology is Catalysts. And the non-dogmatic leadership is Horizons, in which the strategy assumes the outcome first and serves that. The path is held loosely; empathy steers it in V1 and data in V2. Fadell's word for it is not being dogmatic. Steve Jobs' frame was strong opinions, loosely held. The domain missing from the list is Living Futures, and I don't think that is an accident. Fadell learned the method at a company that pursues an integrated product strategy, which leaves it structurally uninterested in worlds beyond its ecosystem. Apple could build the best expo pavilions on Earth if it chose to. As it has drawn its strategy, it has no reason to. The fifth characteristic, then, is ours to supply. ## The last step Fadell draws the customer journey as a chain. It begins when someone first hears of your brand and ends, in his words, "when your product disappears from their life, returned or thrown away, sold to a friend or deleted in a burst of electrons." Every step in between is a place the customer can stumble, and his most useful advice is to prototype all of it, the box and the install and the support call, with the care you lavish on the device. The Nest screwdriver, a dollar-fifty tool in every box that the accountants wanted cut, is the emblem: it was a marketing expense and a support expense wearing a COGS line item's clothes, and it made the install a buttery, warm, joyful experience. His chain stops one step short, and I mean it as a tribute to extend his logic to the final possible step. Where he writes "returned or thrown away," a circular business writes the Last Moment of Truth: the moment a product's first life ends and something has to happen next. In a linear journey that moment is terminal. In a circular one it is a handoff, and it is where the next customer's journey begins, on the resale listing, at the atelier counter, in the refill. Where the linear funnel has one entrance, the loop has many. Fadell already knows the post-sale journey matters; he just draws it as retention. Close the loop and the same prototyping discipline he applies to the box applies to the return. But Fadell is clear about one thing. Nobody buys the method. Nobody buys the Toyota Production System, but it is the secret sauce that makes possible products like the original Lexus LS400. Superior to and less costly than the Mercedes it sought to displace, the first Lexus made its customers feel happy _and_ smart for choosing it. And nobody will buy circularity. They will buy the "painkilling" solution a circular business makes possible, or does better than its linear counterpart. Fadell's test for that is unforgiving: does it solve a pain people feel this week, or is it a vitamin? I don't yet know which product will be the Lexus of the Circular Century. That feeling the LS400 gave its customers points us in a number of directions. I took a few guesses in the Carousel of Plenty. What I conjecture is that when it does arrive, it will have been built the way Fadell builds in _Build_ , with one more step — LMOT — at the end. * * * _The bench is reserved for Dynamo members, the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. The rest of the build is below._ Join the Dynamos! ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
021
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 07/09/2026
Marshall McLuhan is as pertinent today as he was in 1964, and the reason is his definition of media, which is broader than ours. Circularity transformation needs a media strategy in his sense of the word. Here is what he meant.
circudyne.com
Understanding Media
One of my foundational beliefs in starting Circudyne was: circularity needs more Cannes than Davos. More creativity than policy. Imagining more things people want than mandating stuff they're told they need. To support this claim, this week I'm covering _Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man_ by Marshall McLuhan. Understanding Media: The Extensions of ManUnderstanding Media: The Extensions of Man - Kindle edition by McLuhan, Marshall. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man.AmazonMarshall McLuhan (Author) Format: Kindle Edition The book has thirty-three chapters. The last thirty-one are case studies, taken one medium at a time. The first two chapters are the theory, and the theory is where I'll focus. ## The book in brief McLuhan was a Canadian professor of English who, in the early 1960s, became one of the most famous public intellectuals in the world. He has a fantastic cameo in _Annie Hall_. He is remembered for the phrase, "the medium is the message." The argument behind the catch phrase is what survives scrutiny sixty years on. The argument goes like this. A medium is any extension of ourselves (hence the subtitle _The Extensions of Man_). The wheel extends the foot. Clothing extends the skin. Writing extends the eye and money extends the hand. Electricity extends the central nervous system. Every one of these prostheses changes the scale, the pace, or the pattern of human affairs, and that change, not whatever the medium happens to carry, is its message. The content of a medium, he says, "is like the juicy piece of meat carried by the burglar to distract the watchdog of the mind." By that definition, gunpowder is a medium. Napoleon "understood the grammar of gunpowder," and McLuhan means it literally. Money is a medium. The electric light is a medium with no content at all, which is why nobody regards it as one. And a television network is a medium regardless of what it broadcasts, which is where McLuhan picks a fight. General David Sarnoff of RCA had said that the products of science are neither good nor bad in themselves; it's how they're used that counts. McLuhan calls that "the voice of the current somnambulism," and rewrites the sentence with firearms in place of television to show it doesn't work. A technology never simply adds itself to what we already are. It rearranges us. ## A word that shrank We use the word "media" now to mean the content business. McLuhan specifically delineated the two. But we ignore the distinction constantly, because we are drowning in content. Content is king. The extensions of man have multiplied so fast that they demand more content than any previous generation could produce. But the misnomer has shrunk our understanding. When we say media we mean channels and feeds and the people who fill them. McLuhan meant the prosthesis itself. _Everything a brand does is media_ , Lee Clow said, and the line only works in McLuhan's sense: the packaging, the retail architecture, the product design are all extensions of the brand into the customer's life. Their message is what they do to the scale and pace and pattern of that life, whatever the campaign says. The Element of Integration: Crafting Circular AdvantageIn which we use Apple as a lens to understand the power of treating brand, strategy, and organization as a single unit. Circular business models require this same unified approach to succeed—tomorrow’s integrated firms will represent an evolutionary step beyond today’s models.CircudyneChristian Rishel Once we restore McLuhan's meaning of the word, three things come into focus: AI, mythology, and strategy. ## A medium we can only see as a technology McLuhan closes his introduction with a prediction. After the mechanical age extended our bodies in space and the electric age extended our nervous system around the planet, "we approach the final phase of the extensions of man," which he calls "the technological simulation of consciousness, when the creative process of knowing will be collectively and corporately extended to the whole of human society." He wrote that in 1964. It is an uncanny one-sentence description of artificial intelligence written as media theory, not computer science. We talk about AI as a technology and as an economic force. We rarely talk about it as a medium, which is the thing it most obviously is: an extension of thought, which will change the scale, pace, and pattern of everything it touches, regardless of what anyone uses it for. Scale, pace, and pattern are his words. He would probably say that the content — the chatbots and the images and the code — is the meat for the watchdog. For our purposes, AI is a component of the Three Dynamos, the enabling technologies that converge to make the Circular Century possible: Ambient Intelligence, Distributed Power, and Recombinant Matter. Reading McLuhan encourages me to think about all three as media. Each is a prosthesis. Each will rearrange us. The question is what discipline arrays them. ## We are as gods Four years after McLuhan wrote _Understanding Media_ , Stewart Brand opened the _Whole Earth Catalog_ with "We are as gods and might as well get good at it." I think these are related ideas. The extensions of man confer powers that every earlier civilization reserved for the gods. That is why the oldest stories we have are about mortals mingling with gods, borrowing their powers, cheating them, paying for it, and coming home. Stephen Fry, introducing his _Odyssey_ , notes that the Trojan War was "a mortal enterprise," suffered and endured by ordinary people with the gods intruding at the edges, and that the _Odyssey_ begins where the war ends: a profoundly human story with gods and monsters playing their part. That blending of the earthly and the heavenly is what ancient and modern audiences alike want from myth. It's clear why. A myth is a case study in successful passage from one world to another. _We did it before; we can do it again._ That is the _regenerative_ power George Lucas reached for when he decided, after making two angry films, that pessimism only makes people accept the conditions that prevail, and that what the country needed was to "regenerate optimism." He read Campbell, saw what needed doing, and did it, without a commission, as an artist. McLuhan says the serious artist is the only person who can encounter new technology with impunity, because the artist is the expert in changes of sense perception. In McLuhan's sense, Lucas is a serious artist. Douglas Holt has shown that brands become icons by siding with a cultural longing and giving it a voice; I've called the distance between how people live and how they want to live the Mythology Gap. Holt's diagnosis and Lucas' prescription are possible because of McLuhan's diagnosis. The media people are reaching for right now, like an _Odyssey_ in theaters, are the tribal, oral, participatory forms that predate Plato. People are not looking for better arguments. They are looking for a formative myth to carry them from this world to the next. The brands that supply one will extend themselves into the future as icons. Closing the Mythology GapWhen change outpaces our stories, organizations lose coherence. Here we explore how cultural renewal shapes fitness for the Circular Century.CircudyneChristian Rishel * * * ## What McLuhan means by a media strategy Every brand is doing media already, in the full sense. The strategy question is whether it is doing it on purpose. McLuhan's metaphor for that question is temperature. A _hot_ medium is high definition, filled in for you, and asks little: print, radio, film, the lecture. A _cool_ medium is low definition and has to be completed by its audience: the telephone, the seminar, the cartoon, the television of his day. Hot media are low in participation. Cool media are high in participation. He also observed that the mechanical age was fragmentary and centralist while the electric age is "integral and decentralist in depth," and that the electric acceleration, unlike every specialist technology before it, retribalizes. Put those together and a pattern appears that fits the Circular Century almost too well. _Decentralized is cool is participatory is tribal_. A power plant five states away is hot; the solar panel you own is cool. A fast food drive-through is hot; the neighborhood kitchen is cool. A subscription that enshittifies on schedule is hot; the repairable durable good you maintain is cool, and the community it engenders looks a lot like a tribe forming around order. Clayton Christensen would recognize the same pattern as disruption from the low end, closer to the user, good enough, and growing. This is why circularity transformation needs a media strategy. The Three Dynamos make the tribe materially possible. What the tribe lacks is the formative myth to rally around. That myth has to arrive first, as perception, before the demand is measurable. I argued several seasons ago that the funnel starts earlier than awareness, and that if we want different outcomes we have to intervene earlier, at the level of experience. McLuhan explains why. "Everybody experiences far more than he understands. Yet it is experience, rather than understanding, that influences behavior, especially in collective matters of media and technology, where the individual is almost inevitably unaware of their effect upon him." Most brands today _receive_ perception. They measure the demand that already exists because it can be sized, and they arrive too late in the funnel to affect anything. The alternative is to _shape_ it, which means participating in the myth rather than responding to it. Disney understood this when he built on fairy tales. Apple understood it when it planted itself at the crossroads of technology and the liberal arts. _Everything a brand does is media._ ## Discipline, not destination Circudyne promotes "a world without waste," and it would be easy to mistake that for the goal. It isn't. Elimination of waste was never Toyota's purpose either. Taiichi Ohno's book is explicit that higher imperatives came from the Toyoda family: raise the originality and consciousness of Japanese industry, catch up with America in three years, develop human ability to its fullest capacity. Waste elimination was the organizing principle that arrayed the tools toward those ends. Circularity plays the same role. It is the discipline by which we point the prostheses at goals worth having, and the goal at the top of the list, as I've argued before, is joy, which among other things offers a gracious exit from the hedonic treadmill. McLuhan would ask whether any discipline can hold a medium to a purpose, since media rearrange us while we use them. I don't have a theory of progress to offer against that. I have the observation that Toyota is still _muda_ -free decades after Ohno, that Disney and Apple still embody their founders' values imperfectly enough that people keep asking what Walt or Steve would do, and that progress has never been a steady state anyway. What we can expect of ourselves is the initiative to start the project in earnest. We'll be lucky to have McLuhan's problem one day. It will mean the transformation is under way. * * * _McLuhan would say the rest of this letter is a cool medium: it needs you to complete it. Dynamo members, the people building plenty with us, read on. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 31/08/2026
Christopher Alexander built a language for making places that serve human needs beautifully and economically. It doubles as a manual for choosing well where no data exists — the exact position circularity strategists occupy today.
circudyne.com
A Pattern Language
‎A Pattern Language‎Arts & Entertainment · 2018Apple BooksChristopher Alexander A logical consequence of living in a world where things are disposable is that the cost of ugliness goes down. If an object fails to please the eye or otherwise delight the senses, you can just wait to replace it. As objects become more durable — fixtures in our lives — that cost goes up. So good design matters in the Circular Century. I’ve always been struck by Jony Ive's frequent use of the word "intention." He speaks often of designing with intent. I wanted to see where the language of intent comes from. So this week I read one of his influences, _A Pattern Language_ by Christopher Alexander. It provided an interesting counterpart to last week’s book: _Toyota Production System_ by Taiichi Ohno. Ohno’s book is about building abundance in a context of scarcity by using systems. This one is too. ## The book in brief _A Pattern Language_ was published in 1977 by Alexander and his colleagues at Berkeley. It is one half of a single work; _The Timeless Way of Building_ is the theory, and _A Pattern Language_ is the practice. The practice is 253 patterns, arranged from the scale of regions down to decor. Each pattern names a problem that recurs in our environment, then gives the core of its solution — stated, in the book's words, "in such a way that you can use this solution a million times over, without ever doing it the same way twice." The patterns form a network. Each one is completed by the larger patterns above it and completes the smaller ones below it. Alexander draws the consequence in a sentence I marked as the essence of the book: when you build a thing, "you cannot merely build that thing in isolation, but must also repair the world around it, and within it, so that the larger world at that one place becomes more coherent, and more whole." Two pieces of the machinery matter most for our purposes. First, every pattern is offered as a hypothesis. Alexander marks each with asterisks that "represent our degree of faith." Two asterisks claim an “invariant” — a property of every well-formed solution to that problem, expected to endure for 500 years. One asterisk claims progress toward understanding. No asterisk is an open admission: we have not solved this one. And a rule of use follows: when in doubt about a pattern, leave it out. Second, the language can be spoken as prose or as poetry. Compress many patterns into one dense place and you get "the most ordinary economy of space" — and, Alexander says, the only way to make "buildings which are poems." Economy and beauty are one act. Ohno would have understood. ## A language I recognized Regular readers know that we maintain a canon. One entry is Systemic Beauty: the design discipline that makes a circular system worth living with across decades. It has three elements. Compositional Logic — the parts compose in space. Instructional Design — the system teaches itself to its user. Timelessness — the parts compose in time, so old elements give continuity while new ones add capability. I assembled that trio to apply to products in the context of circularity: products as services, products that last a long time, products built for loving maintenance. Reading Alexander, I found a counterpart, written half a century earlier, derived from buildings. Alexander’s rule Structure Follows Social Spaces (205) is compositional logic for place-making. The pattern format itself — problem, evidence, instruction — is instructional design; the book teaches the reader to build without gatekeepers. The two-asterisk invariants are the essence of timelessness. I want to be careful about what this convergence means. Alexander did not anticipate our framework, and we did not borrow his. He wrote for place-makers. We write for object-makers. He could distill his patterns from 10,000 years of places that already work. Our exemplars do not exist yet, so we must reverse-engineer them from the future — asking, with Roger Martin, what would have to be true. Two pattern languages, built from different disciplines, with similar grammar. ## Confidence pips The asterisks deserve special attention, because they solve a problem afflicting strategists looking towards an uncertain future — which means pretty much all of us. Martin borrows two of Aristotle's intellectual virtues: _episteme_ , the systematic knowledge that can be taught and replicated, and _phronesis_ , the practical wisdom required where precedent does not apply. The boundary dictates the approach. Before acting on any analysis, ask whether you are willing to assume the future will be identical to the past. If yes, follow the analysis. If no, do not use it. 📐 Data-centered decision-making carries a strong bias against decisions that require hard-to-acquire data. And there is no data from the future. So the future gets discounted. Alexander's asterisks embody epistemic degrees of confidence. Two asterisks mark the places where the past is deep enough to trust — where the whole history of human dwelling offers proof of concept. The unstarred patterns hand the problem back to your judgment, and say, _Go_. The modern enterprise has organized itself around the opposite habit. Data-centered decision-making carries a strong bias against decisions that require hard-to-acquire data. And there is no data from the future. So the future gets discounted. The longer horizon becomes less knowable, so the shorter one wins by default. Our built world shows the results: places built down to a budget rather than up to a purpose. Alexander offers the alternative: heuristics, expressed as such, ranked by declared faith, open to improvement by anyone. A system for industrializing the creation of beautiful work — and for justifying humanistic service at scale. (He expresses confidence in terms of faith, which is kind of interesting. That’s given me something to think about.) ## What the book means to me Alexander built his language for towns facing economic ruin. Ohno built his system in a country recovering from obliteration. Circularity answers imperatives of its own. The revealed pattern: constraint is the parent of the beautiful outcome, not its enemy. That is why the argument in favor of circularity should not be one of denial. Circularity decouples value creation from resource extraction by daring to imagine the alternative, and the abundance it creates is a clear-eyed embrace of a finite planet. The Earthrise photograph and Carl Sagan’s Pale Blue Dot soliloquy are celebrations, not lamentations, of finiteness. The beauty of our home, seen at any scale, is a function of its fragility. To make a durable, lovely home here — at once in defiance of that fragility and in harmony with it — is the fullest expression of consciousness I can conceive. The point is not to survive, but to live. Not just as individuals; as a planet full of different forms of sentient beings. We should not sacrifice that potential to the exigencies of the workweek and the pull of the lowest common denominator. The resignation to take what comes is a disease. Books like _A Pattern Language_ are part of the cure. Alexander wrote it, he says, "as a first step in the society-wide process by which people will gradually become conscious of their own pattern languages, and work to improve them." That is as fine a description of this letter's ambition as I could write myself. * * * ## The long lead time The Towns patterns are where the book's critics wince. World government of independent regions. Farmland open to all. Scattered work. It is easy to file this under 1970s Berkeley and move on. I think that understanding is a mistake — and the mistake is instructive. These patterns (to which Alexander assigned numbers, see below) did not fail on the merits. They failed on timing. The centralizing technologies of the twentieth century — steel and stamping, then chip fabrication — undermined Scattered Work (9). Big box retailers overtook Individually Owned Shops (87). Platform enshittification replaced Small Services Without Red Tape (81). The economics of the era ran against the grain of the patterns, and the incumbents those economics created have concentrated resources to prolong their moment. But the pendulum has reached its apogee. The enabling technologies of the Circular Century — Distributed Power, Ambient Intelligence, Recombinant Matter — are _de_ centralizers, just as the grid, the automobile, and mass production were centralizers a century ago. Read Alexander's Towns section again with that lens, and it stops being a utopian artifact. It becomes a catalog of what is about to become buildable. The forces of decentralization are arrayed in favor of order now; it is the incumbents who deal in chaos. Are You a Punk?When institutions produce the chaos, order becomes the rebellion. The punks of 2026 don’t sneer. They say “no thank you” and build something without you.CircudyneChristian Rishel * * * _Alexander says no pattern can live in isolation — and neither can this letter. The rest is for Dynamo members, the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 24/08/2026
Lean's founding text by Taiichi Ohno shows that the most celebrated efficiency revolution in business history was circular from the start — and hands circularity transformation its strongest precedent.
circudyne.com
Toyota Production System
‎Toyota Production System‎Business & Personal Finance · 2019Apple BooksTaiichi Ohno My first impression of circularity, when I encountered it, was how much it resembled Lean. I had done Lean engagements as a consultant earlier in my career, and by then the firm I worked for was promoting Lean well beyond its original reputation as a cost-reduction method. Lean had come to be understood as a path to organizational health, and organizational health correlates with enterprise value. Firms seeking higher enterprise value were advised to try Lean if they hadn't already, in the hope of earning a higher multiple. Sustainability, meanwhile, was a cost center. As I saw the practice in those days, it was oriented toward mitigating bad behavior rather than creating new kinds of beneficial value, and I doubted its long-term prospects inside any profit-oriented organization for exactly that reason. So when I found that circularity achieved sustainability goals while closely resembling the method that led to organizational health and enterprise value, I sensed an undiscovered concatenation. My training confirmed the prior: I had been taught to begin Lean engagements with value chain analysis, and that is precisely where my circularity training began too. Ever since, I have written about, spoken about, and tested the proposition that circularity is the logical extension of Lean — what I call Lean 2.0. This week I went to the source and read what is arguably the Old Testament of Lean: Taiichi Ohno's _Toyota Production System_. The book confirmed the thesis more literally than I expected. ## The book in brief Ohno wrote the book in 1978, and it offers far more historical context than I anticipated. He was conscious of lineage. He spends a good part of the book on Henry Ford and the Ford process, and on Alfred Sloan and the way General Motors bent the automobile business away from Ford's original principles. Ohno placed Toyota in that sequence: Ford, then General Motors, then Toyota. The cultural context matters just as much. In August 1945, Toyoda Kiichirō, then president of Toyota, declared that the company must catch up with America in three years or Japan's automobile industry would not survive. The productivity gap was said to be nine to one. Ohno asked the obvious question: could an American really exert nine times the physical effort? Surely the Japanese were wasting something — and if the waste could be eliminated, productivity should rise by a factor of ten. That question was the spark of the Toyota Production System (TPS). It was postwar national pride put to productive purpose, and it was born of necessity rather than abundance. The other thing Ohno was reckoning with was the world of 1978 itself. The book returns again and again to the "low growth" period — the oil crisis had ended the era when any manufacturer could lower unit costs through mere volume. Fordism ran on pure economies of scale: big lots, standardized product, wringing the most out of every die change. Ohno argued that TPS was uniquely suited to a world where that logic was too rigid to adjust to a low-growth environment. A system built for an age of constraint is precisely what an age of constraint calls for. ## An effect mistaken for a cause The famous numbers in the book concern tool changes. In Detroit, switching dies on a press could take the better part of a shift, which placed a premium on standardization and big lots. Toyota drove the same changeover down to as little as three minutes. That opened the line to different models and variants interspersed with one another, and to the load balancing at the core of how TPS works. But Ohno is clear that quick changeovers were an effect of the system rather than its cause. Toyota's sales process was far more tightly integrated with production than Detroit's, so Toyota could see that every car is sold one at a time, to one buyer, who regards it as an individual product. Production had to respect that. The system followed from the demand, and the demand was for variety, of kind and in volume. ## The two pillars TPS rests on two pillars. The first, "autonomation" — distinct from automation — is a clever blending of human and machine. Ohno's machines stop themselves the moment they detect an abnormality, which means a worker no longer stands watch over one machine but moves among many. Detroit made people behave more like machines; Ohno's arrangement made people more powerful, more flexible, and more multi-skilled. The dexterity of the worker and the intelligence of the machine reinforce each other. The second pillar is kanban. Ohno's kanban is distinct from the chart the contemporary lexicon has named after it. In Ohno's meaning, it was a slip of paper in a vinyl envelope that traveled with every part — carrying what the part is, where it came from, where it goes, how many are needed. What struck me is that kanban is metadata for things in the real world. It reminded me of YAML frontmatter in a Markdown document: the object carries its own description and intent. And the discipline had inbuilt limits. Nothing moves without its kanban, defective parts must never be passed to the next station, and the autonomous machines stop on any fault. The effect is that the line has its own reflex — that's the "autono-" in autonomation. The legend that any Toyota worker can stop the line understates the fact — the system stops itself, without requiring judgment or courage at the moment of failure. ## Looking backwards up the line It was Ohno's unique perspective that gave me the book's biggest thrill: a foreshadowing of the reverse logistics that power the Circular Century. Ohno tells us he has "always tried to view things upside down," and the invention of just-in-time is his masterpiece of inversion. In his _status quo ante_ , the flow supplied materials from an earlier process to a later one. Ohno reversed it: the later process goes to the earlier process and withdraws only what it needs, when it needs it, in the quantity it needs — and the earlier process makes only what was withdrawn. The kanban provides the communication channel. The whole system, from finished car back to raw material, is pulled from the end rather than pushed from the beginning. Ohno used reverse-logistics thinking to solve for efficiency in forward production. The founding gesture of Lean was to make the factory think backwards — to let the downstream state command the upstream flow. Circularity applies the identical logic one step further: the disposed product, moving back against the current, commanding what gets made, remade, and recovered. That loop was always present, if latently so, in Lean's DNA. It was simply cut short at the loading dock, where the value chain stopped, and where responsibility was handed to the customer and the landfill. This is why I no longer present Lean 2.0 as an analogy. It is a continuation. The most celebrated efficiency revolution in business history was, at its origin, a circular one. There is a second inversion worth mentioning. Ohno read Ford's legacy as something to embrace and extend, not subvert. He admired Ford's "brilliant inverse conceptions" — Ford asking whether cotton was really the best material for the job when flax was a locally sourced and better-suited material. Readers of Playing to Win will recognize the perspective. Ohno, and Ford, posed a variation of what Roger Martin refers to as the most important question in strategy: what would have to be true? It is also the reasoning posture Horizons asks of every circularity strategist. ## A revolution in consciousness Ohno offers a curious phrase to describe a sine qua non for implementing TPS: "a revolution in consciousness." Holding inventory was once wisdom — a hedge, a granary. He declares the hoarding instinct obsolete: industrial society must develop the courage, or rather the common sense, to procure only what is needed, when it is needed, in the amount needed. Almost half a century later, I cannot improve on that sentence as a statement of circularity principle. He also saw that waste compounds — excess workers, equipment, and product generate secondary waste, the cost of managing what should never have existed. We would call these externalities. And notably, when Toyota's method reached its suppliers, Ohno's people went and taught them. Contrast that with the current fashion of burdening suppliers with scope 2 and 3 targets and calling it engagement. The transformation Ohno demanded was a change of attitude before it was a change of tooling — which is, as it happens, the position this letter has argued from its first issue. We've often lamented that the circularity transformation lacks its Toyota — its emblematic proof of concept. In providing this authoritative portrait of Lean's, we can better understand the standard that circularity's exemplar has to reach. * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 17/08/2026
Clayton Christensen’s iconic analysis reveals why well-run companies at the peak of their powers are routinely vulnerable to disruption. We examine his thesis through the lens of circularity disruption.
circudyne.com
The Innovator's Dilemma
Regular readers of this letter will be familiar with the name Clayton Christensen. He has been mentioned here 23 times, more than almost anybody else. There are two reasons for his prominence. First, his various theories are critical enablers for our circularity transformation architecture. But perhaps more importantly, his insight helps make sense of a world that is growing ever more complex and stupefying. _The Innovator’s Dilemma_ came out the year I started business school. It was more than required reading: it was what everyone was reading. It entered our collective bloodstream. But strong as that memory remains, a stronger one is a lecture of his at a conference a couple of decades later. ‎The Innovator’s Dilemma, with a New Foreword‎Business & Personal Finance · 2024Apple BooksClayton M. Christensen Still recovering from a stroke, he gave the lecture sitting down. His voice was subdued and he sometimes struggled to find the right word. It was a powerful moment. I came away from the experience quite in awe, because even though the messenger was weak, the message was strong. Its striking theme: bad management doesn’t kill great companies. Good management in the wrong circumstances does. ## **The book in brief** To define the circumstances, Christensen distinguishes sustaining technology from disruptive. A **sustaining** technology improves a product along the dimensions that current customers already value. It is serious work, in a known direction. Established firms win these contests almost every time. A **disruptive** technology performs worse on the usual scale. It may be cheaper, smaller, simpler, or more convenient, and its market is unknown. But it contains the seed of new growth, and a small number of unusual customers value it at the start. Established firms lose these contests almost every time. The disruptive innovation scenario is Christensen’s area of interest. An established firm sits inside what he calls a value network: the system of suppliers, customers, and end users the firm operates within. It sets expectations on product qualities and profit margins. That inflects the firm’s perspective. A proposal that serves the existing value network tends to look sensible. A proposal that serves a different one looks risky at best. The firm does not reject a disruptive proposal because the firm is foolish. The firm rejects it if it violates the firm's theory of success. ## **Market and technology measures** Re-reading _Innovator’s Dilemma_ after almost thirty years resolved a mistake I’ve been making about innovation strategy theory. Before this week I treated "radical" and "disruptive" as synonymous. They are not that. They come from two different theories and measure two different things. According to Christensen (and my friend Professor Raja Roy), Rebecca Henderson and Kim Clark’s theory classifies **technology**. An innovation is incremental or radical depending on how far it departs from what came before. Christensen’s theory classifies the **market**. An innovation is sustaining or disruptive depending on whether it serves the existing value network or a new one. The two measures are independent. Put them on separate axes and you get four categories. 1. **Incremental and sustaining**. Routine improvement. The next model year. Established firms win. 2. **Radical and sustaining**. A step change in technology that serves the existing value network. Established firms also win here. Gasoline power replaced steam power in excavators. 23 of the 25 largest steam shovel manufacturers survived the transition. 3. **Incremental and disruptive**. Simple technology and a new value network. This is where established firms die. Hydraulic excavators used off-the-shelf parts. Minimills melted scrap. 4. **Radical and disruptive**. Both at once. This is difficult for everybody. I have two somewhat provocative examples. Ford's universal EV platform is radical and disruptive. Its “assembly tree” production process is a step change. The downmarket, car-like Fathom truck built on the platform also implies different customers, a different cost structure, and a different definition of the product. Developed by a skunkworks. Christensen refers to this approach as matching the size of the organization to the size of the market. In the way that most large organizations are deploying them, frontier AI models are radical and sustaining — not disruptive. The technology is a step change. The deployment is not. There is no hesitation by established firms to invest in the technology to serve existing customers in familiar use cases. That’s how you know it’s sustaining. It does not mean that artificial intelligence cannot be disruptive: local models promise to offer acceptable performance for an underserved market as frontier models overshoot on performance — a hallmark of vulnerable established firms. ### **Where circularity sits** Now let’s apply the matrix to circularity transformation. The average circularity play these days is usually **incremental and disruptive**. That is a dangerous category for established firms, the worst of both worlds: marginal benefit, high risk. Consider what a circular business model requires. Repair, remanufacturing, and the sale of performance instead of product are not step changes in technology. The engineering is well understood in most cases. The value network is the problem. A circular model serves partly different customers. It earns revenue on a different timeframe. It accepts margins the established firm has adapted to refuse. It measures success against priorities the established firm does not value and finds hard to measure. So the established firm looks at circularity and sees a bad investment. It’s not wrong. The assessment is correct inside its value network. This is what I really value about Christensen. He found a way to remove blame from the diagnosis. The client who declines a circular proposal is not a cynic and is not asleep. The client is applying sound management to a situation where sound management gives the wrong answer, at least as circularity’s benefits are concerned. ### **The three questions** In the summary of his second chapter, Christensen gives us a test to determine an innovation’s category. 1. Will the value network the firm already serves value the performance attributes of this innovation? 2. Must other value networks be addressed or a new one created for the innovation to produce value? 3. Will the market trajectory and the technology trajectory eventually intersect? Let’s measure circularity against these questions candidly. The answer to the first is usually no. This goes to the heart of the say-do gap. Consequently, the answer to the second is usually yes; a new value network is required. The answer to the third depends on regulation, material cost, and demand rather than on engineering. As long as this is unknown, it breaks the tie on the other two. And because it is unknowable (as the answer lies in the future except in the case of compulsory regulation), it is usually determinative. We have our work cut out for us. We have to map the circular value network archetypes. We have to chart new archetypes a practitioner could apply. We have to imagine a breed of new solutions that are good enough today to accelerate the transition to circularity tomorrow. ### **The way forward** For established firms intent on circularity transformation, Christensen’s best prescription is a change of organization. You cannot win this fight inside the established organization. The resource allocation process will defeat you. It is designed to kill proposals that current customers do not want and it performs that function well. (A former colleague and co-founder called this “the immune response.”) The remedy is the skunkworks. Build a separate unit sized to the market it serves. Christensen's rules are: 1. Give the project to an organization whose customers need the innovation. Resources then flow toward it without a fight. 2. Make the organization small enough to be excited by small wins. 3. Plan to fail early and cheaply. Treat the first attempts as learning and not as execution. 4. Use the technology as it is. Do not hold it in the laboratory until it satisfies the mainstream market. The most colorful example of this approach in the book was Quantum. It financed a separate company to build the next category of product, kept 80 percent ownership, and housed it offsite. When it succeeded, the parent company replaced its leadership with the skunkworks’. ### **Patient for growth, impatient for profit** A new circular venture should be required to become profitable quickly at small scale. It should not be required to become large quickly. That's the antithesis of the value network of venture capital. Risk capital prioritizes growth. A venture-backed entrant is patient for profit and impatient for growth. That approach is correct for a fund that needs one holding in twenty to return the whole portfolio. It is wrong for a circular venture inside an established firm. (This is another indicator that frontier AI models are not disruptive in Christensen's sense of the word.) I recall a line from Christensen’s lecture, which went something like: “the established firm has a brand, a process, a value network, and capital. The only thing an entrant has is a clean sheet of paper. And that’s usually enough to beat the established firm.” The trick is enforcing that clean sheet of paper, and sizing the skunkworks organization such that it will thrive by serving an emerging market. ### **What Clayton Christensen means to me** Christensen’s lecture at the conference was followed by Scott Galloway, who was in a particularly rock-and-roll mood that day. In the feedback to the conference organizer, I remember writing, “I feel like I just saw a double billing of Mr. Rogers and the Sex Pistols.” I think the similarity between Fred Rogers and Clay Christensen has only grown for me since then. They both taught us to see what’s right with the world, and how to make us make our way through it without losing our sense of wonder. Like every other epochal socioeconomic shift, the Circular Century requires disruption. The old world must make way for the new. _The Innovator’s Dilemma_ is not just a strategy compass. It’s a moral one too. * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 10/08/2026
Strategy is a choice, so you might as well choose to win. For circularity leaders, the framework offers an opportunity and a moment of truth.
circudyne.com
Playing to Win
This season's Roger Martin appreciation theme culminates with _Playing to Win_ (2013), the eponymous volume based on the strategy framework copiously cited in these letters and relied upon in our transformation architecture. Credited both to A.G. Lafley and Martin, the book is a memoir as much as a manual: the story of P&G's choices between 2000 and 2009, told by the chief executive who led it and the strategist he called his "alter ego and partner." ‎Playing to Win, Expanded with Bonus HBR Articles‎Business & Personal Finance · 2025Apple BooksA.G. Lafley I am a regular and, obviously, ardent reader of Martin's practitioner essays, so much of the book was as expected. But there were at least a couple of enlightening surprises: an origin story, which I will cover below; and a realization about what kind of object this book is. It is a realized artifact of strategy. And it was refreshing to dive back into the world of P&G in its heyday. There was also one major unexpected synthesis about moments of truth that is of particular relevance to the task of circularity transformation. ## Five choices — and a product Strategy, the authors insist, is a dynamic concatenation of questions to be answered: What is your winning aspiration? Where will you play? How will you win? What capabilities must be in place? What management systems are required? The middle pair — where to play, how to win — is the heart, and the five form a cascade in which choices at the top set context for the ones below, while the ones below reach back up and revise the top. As innovation, _Playing to Win_ is sustaining. It presents itself as an agile synthesis of prior work: it cites Michael Porter's five forces and activity system, the fork between cost leadership and differentiation. The book is dedicated to Peter Drucker, whose immortal lesson is translated into P&G's house dialect: the consumer is boss. The cases are lively and relatable — Olay rebuilt to serve a new segment, Gillette learning India by shaving alongside its customers, a diaper priced for parity with an egg. The remarkable thing about this book is that it exemplifies its method. It is a product, not a treatise. Lafley's objective was to make strategy accessible across an organization, easier to communicate, repeatable at every level, from the company to the category to the function. Both authors praise the approach in terms you would use for a well-designed good. P&G codified its brand-building craft as a framework called BBF 1.0 and shipped upgrades through 4.0, the way it shipped Tide improvements — or software updates. For Lafley and Martin, the practitioner is their consumer. Their prescription fits a credible diagnosis. It is accessible, without sacrificing depth. ## Ego is the enemy (of strategy) The most delightful part for me was learning the origin story of a keystone concept. Early in his career, Martin sat with a mining company facing a brutal choice: shut the operation down, or invest to save it. He had a strong view about which option was best. He had just dealt with a client who fatefully and catastrophically ignored his advice in a comparable situation; that experience weighed heavily and he wondered if the cycle was about to repeat. It stressed him out. Then came his career-making realization. It did not matter "a whit" what he thought. The people around the table — the mine managers on one side, head office managers on the other — were the ones who would have to act. His opinion, however good, could not do the acting for them. His job was to serve them. Out of that diminution of ego came the "most important question in strategy": what would have to be true? Not _what do I believe_. Not _who is right_. For each option on the table: what would have to be true — about customers, about capabilities, about costs — for this possibility to be a great choice? The question removes the self from the argument so the argument can work. In the process the book builds around it, skeptics are asked to name the exact source of their skepticism instead of denouncing the idea. No one owns a possibility, so no one has to die on a hill for one. Opinions about whether the conditions are true are, in the authors' word, counterproductive; the work is identifying the conditions and testing the shakiest one. Last week I called Martin a philosopher's strategist, or a strategist's philosopher. He lives up to that again this week. The fact that the Playing to Win approach to strategy came from an act of ego destruction comes as no surprise. The philosophy and the strategy are the same move. The story provides an unexpected coda for last week's letter. A Popperian conscience is hard for humans because refutation feels personal; what-would-have-to-be-true is falsification with the self taken out. And notice what the question can do that its complement can't: _what is true_ can only contemplate things that already exist. _What would have to be true_ can contemplate things that do not exist yet. There is no data from the future. But there are conditions, and conditions can be tested. ## The edge of the map By its authors' own designation, PTW is a strategy machine rather than an innovation machine. Lafley kept innovation with separate advisors — the book credits Clayton Christensen and Innosight on disruption, and Connect + Develop for open innovation — and the strategy choice cascade is quieter about what to do when the playing field itself must be invented. There is an interesting point of entry for radical innovation, though. In the discussion of segmentation, the authors observe that the accepted industry maps are imperfect — like the old maps of a flat world, with edges you could sail off — and they instruct the reader to explore segments that do not currently exist. That is the framework's one door out of its own remit. That's the portal for circularity transformation. At scale, incumbents today are behaving well according to the linear industry map, and they are being rewarded for it. The problem is the map. It is past its expiration date. When Crest expanded from toothpaste to a full oral-care regimen, that was a border adjustment — smart, incremental, and entirely inside the old projection. A circular industry map is a change of projection. A category difference in segments, success criteria, and shape. The proof of the old map's obsolescence is the new territory beyond its borders: the conscious non-consumers who communicate through absence, economic dark matter for linear brands. They live past the edge of the incumbent's map, out where the old cartographers wrote their warning. Here be dragons. To brands transformed for circularity, they appear as an underserved segment with potent cultural power. How this extension sits with Martin, I honestly do not know. I hope to ask him one day. ## The Last Moment of Truth Among the tools P&G has wielded to good effect is a pair of moments of truth: the first, when a consumer encounters the product on the shelf; the second, when she first uses it at home. A former colleague of mine at Google, Jim Lecinski, wrote ZMOT and defined the Zero Moment of Truth — the research a shopper now does before ever reaching the shelf. P&G later added a third, when a delighted consumer becomes an advocate. Notice where every one of these moments lives: at the beginning of a product's life. That is the linear economy's field of vision. It sees the courtship and the wedding, and nothing after. Circularity's moment arrives at the other end. Call it the **Last Moment of Truth** : the moment when a product's first life ends and something must happen next. The repair. The refill. The return. The resale. The name works on three levels. Marie Kondo has written a liturgy for the last moment you are with the product: thanking the object for its service, a parting with intention and grace. Circularity as the transformation after which no further transformation is needed. And closing the loop — the final stage in a process. In a circular economy, the Last Moment of Truth is not terminal. One person's last moment restarts the sequence for someone else — and it can restart anywhere: at the listing, on the atelier shelf, or straight into a new home. The returned coat becomes a discovery; the refurbished phone becomes an unboxing. What linear thinking treats as an ending, circular thinking treats as a handoff. And where the linear funnel has one entrance, the loop has many. Last week's letter called for a vision worth choosing and a theory honest enough to avoid becoming dogma. PTW is the machine that builds both. And the Last Moment of Truth is where a circular strategist should point it first. _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats are reserved._ Join the Dynamos_._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 03/08/2026
Two esteemed points of view on the nature of progress, how it applies to strategy, and what it means for circularity transformation.
circudyne.com
The Logic of Scientific Revolutions
When compiling this list of summer reading, I knew it had to include two books that Roger Martin calls “required reading if you want to be a great strategist”: Karl Popper's _The Logic of Scientific Discovery_ (1959) and Thomas Kuhn's _The Structure of Scientific Revolutions_ (1962). I read Popper in college. Kuhn was new to me. ‎The Logic of Scientific Discovery‎Nonfiction · 2005Apple BooksKarl Popper‎The Structure of Scientific Revolutions‎Science & Nature · 2012Apple BooksThomas S. Kuhn I have made no secret of my debt to Martin’s leadership and ideas. That he considered these books compulsory reading was good enough for me. But the genius was in pairing the two. The books are important, but the dialectic between them is essential. Martin is a philosopher's strategist, or a strategist's philosopher; that is why I have found him good company on my particular journey. He flies at the right altitude for the question that nags our enterprise: why the Circular Century we can already imagine is taking so long to get here. The debate between Popper and Kuhn, literal and figurative, provides philosophical and historical perspective. **A dialectic on the nature of progress** Popper was a philosopher, and his objective was finding truth. You can think of his book as a defense — and radicalization — of the principle underlying Sherlock Holmes’ famous line about deduction: that when you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, is the truth. Except for Popper, the process of elimination never ends. He established an exclusive definition of science, embodying a strict standard of testability. No number of confirming observations can prove something is true. No number of white swans establishes the claim that all swans are white, while a single black swan refutes it. Proof of fact being off the table, what science can do is falsify the unfactual. A theory becomes scientific only by sticking its neck out, and the scientist's job is to expose the best available theory to what Popper called the fiercest struggle for survival. It never ends. Whoever decides that a statement is settled and needs no further test, he wrote, needs to retire from the game. Kuhn was a historian, and his objective was solving problems. Science is organized around paradigms, inside the boundaries of which the role of the scientist is to “solve puzzles.” Paradigms contain worlds, comprised of four kinds of commitments: conceptual, theoretical, instrumental, and methodological. It’s a profoundly inductive approach. He emphasized the role that textbooks play in establishing a paradigm’s governing narrative. Most science is what he called "normal science" — refining the paradigm, and pruning observations that won’t fit. The misfits that survive this pruning process accumulate as anomalies. A small number of anomalies are tolerated as exceptions that prove the rule. A large number of anomalies breeds crisis. After that, rarely, a revolution: a rival paradigm that explains the old anomalies, and a community that converts to it. The function that tips the conversion to a new paradigm is a social choice, not a logical one. Persuasion plays its part. The account of their debate at a colloquium in London in 1965 covers this dynamic of paradigm shift. Popper thought normal science was science's failure mode — puzzle-solvers trained out of the critical attitude. Kuhn thought falsification described an ideal of science that has never prevailed; if every misfit killed a theory, all theories would die at birth. That was when I realized Martin slipped something sneaky into his prescription for reading these two books. Once I perceived Popper and Kuhn’s quarrel, I expected to have to choose a side. But what I left with was a cleaner way to understand the space between. Both men believed in solving problems. They disagreed about what the solving answers to. Popper's scientist answers to reality: solve the problem to get nearer to the truth. Kuhn's answers to the community: solve the puzzle to extend the paradigm, and when the paradigm fails, win the revolution by conversion — because proof alone is not sufficient for change. Truth on one side. Working agreement on the other. The two sides of progress. **A movement before its paradigm** Kuhn offers a diagnostic for telling where a discipline stands. Before its paradigm arrives, he says, you find deep and recurring debates over legitimate methods, problems, and standards of solution — debates that define schools rather than produce agreement. If you have spent time in the circular economy literature, you may feel a shock of recognition. Metrics that disagree, frameworks that multiply, subscale experiments that peter out when the community loses interest. Kuhn would regard this disarray sympathetically: as the signature of a discipline whose paradigm has not yet been founded. What is missing is the founding achievement itself — the demonstration unprecedented enough to pull adherents away from competing approaches and open-ended enough to hand them a generation of work. I have written before that circularity is Lean 2.0, but the circular Toyota has not yet emerged. Kuhn gives us the reason why that absence matters so much. Until the exemplar exists, there is nothing to inspire conversion. **The double stall** Meanwhile the incumbent paradigm behaves exactly as Kuhn says paradigms behave. The linear economy's anomalies are hardly hidden — the say-do gap between what people profess to want and what the market gives them to buy, the externalities that squirrel costs under somebody else's carpet, the resource scarcity choices that evade ratification. Each is perceived as an exception, a cost of doing business, a problem for a later quarter. Popper saw this kind of maneuver for what it was: whenever the classical system of the day is threatened, the system will appear unshaken to the "conventionalist," who explains the inconsistencies away. > A paradigm that does not yet exist cannot be verified into existence The challengers make the opposite error. We keep trying to win by verification — searching for the settled proof, the definitive case study, a metric that ends the argument. But there is no data from the future. A paradigm that does not yet exist cannot be verified into existence, and Kuhn is blunt about why: paradigm debates concern which candidate should guide work on problems neither side can yet claim to solve. Demanding proof before commitment gets the logic exactly backwards. So the transition stalls twice over. An old paradigm defends itself the way paradigms always do, and a successor has not yet learned that it cannot win by proof. As Gramsci put it, the old is dying and the new cannot be born. The choice between Popper and Kuhn looks, on its face, like a dilemma. But it behaves like a set of instructions. Like a certain binary I wrote about in June, it disallows indifference — and whichever side you choose, the work turns out to be the same. Posit your theory honestly. Hunt the anomalies. Build the thing a community can convert to. That is the position Martin stakes out between the two philosophers, and it is why he recommends strategists read both books. One's strategy, he writes, is in essence a paradigm — a theory of winning, never the truth, only the best construction available at the moment. You hold it with a Popperian conscience: watch for the anomalies, and keep asking what would have to be true for a theory that makes them expected. And you advance it by Kuhnian means, because markets, boards, and organizations are communities, and communities are converted rather than compelled. Circudyne's project is to carry that lesson one step past strategy — to point it at circularity transformation, where the paradigm waiting to be founded is larger than any one firm. A vision of a better future and a theory of success are the chicken and the egg. **Golden ages are chosen** Carlota Perez mapped how technological ages turn over: each great surge installs its technologies first, and only afterward — sometimes long afterward — opens into the broad prosperity she calls a golden age. The turn is conditional. The installed technologies can become a golden age if we aim them at something worth having. I wrote about her pattern in June, and the line I keep returning to is the one that assigns us the work: golden ages are chosen, not delivered. The infrastructure points the way. It does not walk the road. Popper and Kuhn, read together, explain why our time for choosing is past due. The choice is a paradigm shift. And a paradigm shift requires exactly that pairing: a vision compelling enough that a community converts to it, and a theory of success honest enough to keep the new paradigm from settling into the next dogma. A Kuhnian act, performed with a Popperian conscience. That is why this moment calls for philosophy and strategy at once — and why, midway through a summer of reading, a report on two philosophers of science belongs in a story about economic and cultural transformation. There is a pair of first principles to consider. Science reconciles us to what is true. Strategy commits us to what we choose. The Circular Century will be founded by people who can do both at once. _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats are reserved._ Join the Dynamos_._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
030
Reposted by Circudyne
Casey Newton @caseynewton.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 22/07/2026
Talked to Raycast/Glaze founder Thomas Paul Mann about why soon half the apps on your computer might be ones you made yourself — and what that means for jobs www.platformer.news/glaze-raycast-c…
Newton: I want to try to project a little bit into the future. If you had to make a guess: in,
at's say, three years, what do you think is the mix on my Mac between software I made
software my friends made, and software a company made? If you have to picture the
dock, what is the mix?
Mann: I think software that a company made is the lowest. Software that you made is
maybe 30 to 50 percent — the stuff that you made to use every day. And then the rest
comes from your internal tooling, from your friends, from something you found from
somebody else and potentially adjusted to work like you want. That's what I would say.
023
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 20/07/2026
Donella Meadows built an exquisite analytical toolkit, then told us exactly where its utility ends. The future can only be envisioned, not analyzed.
circudyne.com
Thinking in Systems
> Systems thinking makes clear even to the most committed technocrat that getting along in this world of complex systems requires more than technocracy. > — Donella Meadows, _Thinking in Systems_ * * * Summer reading continues! In last week's Letter, we read the trio of founding texts that inform the substance of circularity: Biomimicry, Cradle to Cradle, and the Performance Economy. This week we pick up the book that gave us its mindset. _Thinking in Systems_ by Donella Meadows provides a shared vocabulary for everyone interested in circularity: stocks, flows, feedback loops, leverage points. ‎Thinking in Systems‎Business & Personal Finance · 2008Apple BooksDonella Meadows I finished it this week and found something new. The book ends, compellingly, with the message that the toolkit is necessary, but not sufficient, for making change. ## A toolkit that works Meadows diagrams capital stock as two loops in tension. Investment feeds the stock and compounds — a reinforcing loop. Depreciation drains it — a balancing loop. Whichever loop dominates decides whether the system climbs exponentially (and crashes when resources run out) or reaches equilibrium. Obsolescence is a peer to depreciation. You raise a stock by slowing its outflow as surely as by speeding its inflow. That statement is Stahel's "era of R" in systems vocabulary. Service-life extension _is_ outflow reduction. Repair, remanufacture, upgrade — every one of them slows the discharge. Now consider our status quo. Planned obsolescence speeds the outflow on purpose. Accelerated depreciation does the same thing on the balance sheet. Two faces of one coin, both shortening the working life of the stock. Meadows describes the balancing loops of a house, a furnace, and a thermostat. The furnace runs according to the weather outside. Make it artificially colder and the furnace runs harder. The harder it runs, the earlier it meets its "breakdown point." That describes the linear economy's relationship with everything it builds. We manufacture a hostile climate for our own capital stock and act puzzled when nothing lasts. Premature breakdown points proliferate. As Dark Helmet exclaims in Spaceballs: "...even in the future, nothing works!" Meadows strikes a subversive note. She ranks the interest rate among humanity's worst ideas, because it biases financial analysis against the long view. Manufactured dependence does the same thing. ## System understanding does not confer control Her concluding message in the book is a confession of sorts, about her own failures to influence systems under her direct control. She (and her colleagues) lectured on the structure of addiction and could not quit coffee. They mapped the trap of eroding goals and watched their own routines erode. They taught the dynamics of escalation, then built escalation into their marriages. The substance underneath that revelation is pertinent to all who would apply system analysis to the real world. Self-organizing, nonlinear, feedback systems are unpredictable. They cannot be controlled. Any objective worth pursuing is complex enough to defy predictive analysis. We cannot optimize because we don't know what variable to optimize, or even which direction to move it. Then she takes this observation to its logical endpoint. _Understanding_ a system and _managing_ one is a category difference. Analysis can only take you so far. This is a rather important point that you seldom see in the literature of the circular economy. ## Aristotle figured it out a while ago Regular readers will know how much I have come to admire and depend on Roger Martin and his work. He has an essay I keep returning to, about epistemology and its application to strategy. Its memorable takeaway: "There is no data about the future — ever." Martin cites Aristotle's two kinds of knowledge. * Part of the world where things _cannot_ be other than they are. Drop a ball and it falls. It will fall the same way tomorrow, so a sample from the past represents the future perfectly. Analysis works beautifully there. * The rest of the world is where things _can_ be other than expected, because it involves people, and people change. A survey about smartphone use in 1999 tells you nothing about what will happen in 2020, since in 1999 nobody knew what a smartphone was. Martin's lament is that business education in its current state trains people to apply Aristotle's first method to the second world. Look at Meadows through that lens and the two perspectives lock together. Her definition of a system — self-organizing, nonlinear, unpredictable — _is_ Aristotle's second category. They mapped the same boundary from opposite directions. Martin found it through strategy. Meadows found it through ecosystems. The road to the Circular Century runs through far side of that line. It offers opportunities for people to own different, buy different, want different. No amount of past consumer data will tell you how that is going to work out. "The Circular Century offers opportunities for people to own different, buy different, want different." ## Both of them prescribe imagination Martin invokes Aristotle's remedy. Imagine the possibilities, then choose the one you can argue for most compellingly. After that, prototype: build a small version and turn the future into the past, so that at last you have data about it. Meadows lands in a similar place. The future cannot be predicted. It can be envisioned, and brought into being with care. Her conclusion waxes lyrical: > Systems thinking... says that there is plenty to do, of a different sort of “doing.” The future can’t be predicted, but it can be envisioned and brought lovingly into being. I think she uses that word "lovingly" with a rigorous intention. Which raises a stubborn objection. So let's talk about it. Imagination without discipline is daydreaming. What separates the two is judgment, theory, and the scientific method. Finding truth starts with a hypothesis. Building a better future starts with a dream. Envisioning a future we would choose to live in wastes nobody's time. It is the first step of progress. Circularity owns a surplus of models and runs a deficit of dreams. Meadows told us which one was missing. More of us should read this book to the end. _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people reading along with us. If you're here as a guest, you're welcome at the table. The marginalia is reserved._ Join the Dynamos_._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
031
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 06/07/2026
The summer reading season opens with Walter Stahel's introductory text — a book that reaches for what's still missing: a longing for the circular economy.
circudyne.com
The Circular Economy: A User's Guide
Summer is here, and that means it's time for a new season of _the Circudyne Letter_. I've decided to start a new tradition that lives in harmony with the season: summer reading. My school mandated a slate of books to be read over the vacation. I suppose that while the compulsory aspect was not so welcome, it was nice to have another reason to settle down with books amidst all the celebratory and sensual delights of the season. I intend to make summer reading an annual event here at _the Letter_. This year, I'd like to revisit some of the canonical texts informing the conceptual framework of my practice. The best place to start is at the beginning. The book we'll look at today had the working title _Circular economy for beginners_. It's by Walter Stahel, who has been mentioned often in these letters and who subsequently reached out on LinkedIn with a link to it. ‎The Circular Economy‎Business & Personal Finance · 2019Apple BooksWalter R. Stahel I decided to build a larger list around and behind it — a few core circular-economy texts first, and then some volumes underlying some of the themes of Circudynamics: systems, strategy, Lean, the philosophy of science, the science of beauty and aspiration. If you'd like to follow along, please do. The complete reading list is outlined below. So the season starts where the field starts. _The Circular Economy: A User's Guide_ is Stahel's summary of his work leading up to the concept of circularity as we know it today. In the very beginning of the book, he invokes his muse. He quotes Saint-Exupéry: > When you want to build a ship, do not begin by gathering wood, cutting boards and organising work gangs, but rather create the longing for the sea, awaken within men the desire for the vast and endless sea. The shift to a circular economy, Stahel says, depends on that same longing — a bottom-up desire strong enough to make the whole transition self-propelling. He sets the question at the front door of his own book. Does he answer it? Hold that thought. ## An economy built around "YOU" Stahel thinks in epochs. For most of the human story, circularity needed no advocate, because scarcity compelled it. When a castle outlived its politics, its stones became bridges. Then coal and iron broke the constraint, leading to what he calls the _Linear Industrial Economy_. With that framing, he strips the linearity of any vestige of being the natural order of things. It's one epoch among several — a 250-year experiment, bracketed on one side by the circular society of scarcity and, if he has his way, on the other by a _Circular_ _**Industrial**_ _Economy_ of abundance. The old circularity was imposed. The new one must be chosen. The work happens in two theaters. "The era of 'R'" keeps objects at their highest value and utility: _re_ use, _re_ pair, _re_ manufacture; technological upgrade. "The era of 'D'" recovers molecules at their highest purity: _de_ -polymerize, _de_ -alloy, _de_ -laminate, _de_ -vulcanize. I was struck by how completely these two era-names carry this book on their shoulders, far more prominently than in any of the later literature on circularity I've encountered. The theme runs through every chapter. Manage stocks. Maintain value. Let _use value_ take the throne that _exchange value_ has held since the beginning of the industrial age. Stahel's device against thesis sprawl is a recurring line, and it is endearing and somewhat startling: _"The centre of the circular economy is YOU."_ His emphasis. Then he specifies: * YOU, the owner-user, keeping what you own in service instead of tossing and replacing. * YOU, the owner-manager of used objects, dismantling and remarketing. * YOU, the salesman, backing your goods with lifetime repair. * YOU, the policymaker, closing the liability loop. * YOU, the manager of a fleet. By the closing pages it is simply _you and me_. The book calls us where we are. Every reader leaves with an assignment, and nobody gets to be a spectator. ## A certain kind of caring And what is the nature of the assignment? A shared remedy: _caring_. A specific kind of caring, to be precise. His origin story is the Saxon foresters of 1713, where the word _sustainability_ was coined by men who tended forests because forests were the source of their wealth. His household example is Pirsig's motorcycle. His industrial example is Rolls-Royce, watching its engines in flight enabling repair while on the wing. This is husbandry — a long, custodial, economically interested relationship with a _stock_. You take care of the thing because the thing takes care of you. Somewhere in the margins of chapter one, I made this note: _caring is a substitute for planning._ It may be the book's hidden message. Nature has no master plan, Stahel observes, and neither did the circular economy of scarcity. What it has instead is millions of custodians, each holding a long relationship with a stock of things (and presumably, with each other). Caring acts as, or at least stands in for, the distributed governance that hasn't fully shown up yet for a transition to a circular industrial economy. ## Reflections Read through the lens of Circudynamics, the book grounds arguments in systems language that I have been making, if I'm honest, from intuition and experience. His account of premature obsolescence and restricted repair is his characterization of manufactured dependence. His regional workshops remanufacturing mass-produced goods parallel the atelier. And one sentence near the end was striking: if users had a voice and were heard, he allows, they could become the major change agents of the shift. There is the Circudyne hypothesis, endorsed in passing. He plants the flag and moves on. We differ, honestly, in two places. He expects the circular economy to substitute labor for energy; I think energy and machine intelligence are getting too cheap for that trade to pencil out. He files desire under sentiment — vintage-car rallies, heritage pride — and treats it as a minor driver. I think joy is the major one. But these are quarrels inside an agreement. ## Longing for the sea — not quite. Stahel is modest. He concedes his invocation to the muse goes unanswered. The book has structured and illustrated the principles of the circular industrial economy, he writes — but it may not have answered how to create the longing for the sea. His remaining suggestion: perhaps moving the legal gateposts — depreciation schedules, liability rules, taxing resources instead of labor — is how policymakers might spark some interest. A great economist walks to the edge of his discipline, and sees in the final step a choice between persuasion and compulsion. He chooses regulation. I'm more interested in where he started: by creating a longing for the sea. The concession matters, because the metaphorical longing to which he refers is a stand-in for something fundamental. Stahel admonishes us to remember that the circular _economy_ is about economics, and it's hard to argue against that. But economics involves the study of the relationship between supply and demand, and this book — like the field its author helped create — is a supply-side masterwork. Reverse logistics, remanufacturing returns, liability loops, mini-mills: supply, supply, supply. Demand is delegated to policy and to poetry, and so nobody owns it. My operating hypothesis — for this essay and for Circudyne — is that this is the field's debilitating blind spot, and it explains much of why a sensible, profitable, natural next epoch keeps failing to take hold. It's worked out backwards: the engineers built the ship. But hardly anyone is longing for the sea. ## No showroom As Stahel puts it: the circular industrial economy has no showroom. The linear economy is practically made of showrooms — the auto salons, the launch keynotes, the whole luminous apparatus of the point of sale. Circular work as presently conceived and practiced is quiet, local, dutifully whispered mouth to ear. No stage. No window display. No place where longing gets manufactured. Past epochs handled this differently. When the industrial future needed to spark demand, it built showrooms the size of cities. The great expositions — above all in 1939, where the World of Tomorrow turned a picture of prosperity into a dream that a nation later fulfilled and surpassed — did for their century exactly what Stahel says our century is missing. The Circular Century deserves one of its own. That is a longer argument, and readers of this letter have watched me make it for over a year now. Stahel's honesty is instructive. The field's user's guide ends by calling for a longing it fails to create. Creating that longing is the work of this moment. * * * ### Summer Reading 2026 1. Stahel, _The Circular Economy: A User's Guide_. 2. McDonough & Braungart, _Cradle to Cradle_ + Benyus, _Biomimicry_ + Stahel, _The Performance Economy_. 3. Meadows, _Thinking in Systems_. 4. Forrester, _Industrial Dynamics_. 5. Popper, _The Logic of Scientific Discovery_ + Kuhn, _The Structure of Scientific Revolutions_. 6. Martin, _Playing to Win_. 7. Christensen, _The Innovator's Dilemma_ + _The Innovator's Solution_. 8. Womack/Jones/Roos, _The Machine That Changed the World_ + Ohno, _Toyota Production System_ + Deming, _Out of the Crisis_. 9. Alexander, _A Pattern Language_ + Brand, _How Buildings Learn_. 10. McLuhan, _Understanding Media_. 11. Fadell, _Build_. 12. Hall, _Where Is My Flying Car?_ * * * _Image prompt: First-person point of view from a quiet New England beach looking out to sea, an elegant modestly-sized sailing sloop plowing the waves in the far distance, a single closed navy-blue hardcover book resting on the pale warm sand in the near foreground, dune grass at the margins, calm bright summer daylight, gentle surf and a broad open sky, mid-century travel-poster illustration style, 1960s World's Fair poster aesthetic, bold confident graphic design, flat color areas with clean edges, warm optimistic palette anchored by citrine yellow (#FEC400) sunlight with teal (#00B7B0) sea and sky, deep space navy (#1B2951) for depth and the book, a small coral red (#F14432) spot accent on the distant hull, pearl gray negative space, gouache and screenprint texture, serene and inviting, no people, no text_ * * * _Below the line: the equipment — three arguments this book puts in your hands — plus the takeaway and a preview of next week's reading._ ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 29/06/2026
The season's real subject turned out to be the good life — and the kind of luxury that comes from a better place than scarcity.
circudyne.com
The Carousel of Plenty
This is the end of the Carousel of Plenty series, and the 52nd consecutive weekly _Circudyne Letter_. One letter a week, every week for a year. Worth a moment of reflection. There seem to be as many ways of running this kind of enterprise as there are entrepreneurial writers. The goal of presenting circularity transformation as something more than a sustainability play — that it's the next form of progress, that it is Lean's successor, that it pays, that the culture is already turning toward it — has pulled me in several directions. My instinct at the outset, which I think has been validated, is that collecting essays into series would provide discipline and creative constraint. Each of these four seasons has felt as much like a semester at school as a quarterly deliverable. It's been a joy, and educational. _Carousel of Plenty_ is more than an abstraction. Like the Circular Century, it's a place to go. A destination you cannot picture is a destination you cannot want. So this season we went and furnished the place. Patterned on a great medium from the last century: The GE Carousel of Progress. Like its predecessor, this carousel ride runs through aspirational wonders, like the Robot Milkman, the home that improves with age, a tailored and timeless wardrobe, and a cheap place to eat that's built like a temple. I expected, setting out, that the season would be a catalog. It turned into an argument about the good life. ## Luxury decouples from scarcity Luxury is the business of aspiration. Aspiration is easy to stimulate when there is a competition for goods, and the whole machinery of marketing runs on staging that competition. But the competition changes character depending on where you stand on Maslow's pyramid. Down at the base it is existential. "If I don't get that loaf of bread" is a sentence about survival. Near the top it is a proxy fight. "If I don't get that sports car" is a sentence about standing. The two could not be more different in substance. The feeling underneath them is identical: _I have to have it._ That feeling is the marketer's product. Scarcity enables it, and the linear economy learned how to make it out of nothing. Manufactured dependence takes several forms. It embodies things like planned obsolescence, which we have all learned to disdain but have not yet systemically resolved, or evolved to resist. That changes in the Circular Century. Three forces press new forms of abundance into everyone's hands. When you make your own power, when intelligence is wired into everything like electricity, when nothing is wasted and stuff is conserved into the form of equal or better stuff, the hustle loses its cultural and psychological grip. The competition slips ever higher up Maslow's pyramid, until one day the only things left to argue over are art and philosophy. The idea of _that_ world turned out to be the center of gravity in this season. When abundance is real and beauty is everywhere, rarity can no longer be the thing that makes something luxurious. The discriminator moves to joy, to craft, to fit, to meaning. Offered caviar or cherries with the scarcity premium stripped away, a person might honestly choose the fruit, because what they want is the thing that fits their life, not what impresses the neighbors. ## Aristocratic bearing for the rest of us We dwelled for a time on _aristocratic bearing_. In today's context, that connotes snobbery. But bearing is not snobbery. Bearing is comfort with one's place in the world. It is the posture of a person for whom the question of material survival is settled and stays so. Despite living in a far more prosperous age, today few people ever feel it; just when somebody makes it, the race for more just restarts. Substantial wealth is not the same as _enough_. The treadmill does not care how fast you are already running. To the luxury trade, and in the good life as it has been sold to us, "enough" is a word that is seldom uttered. General Electric, the sponsor of the Carousel of Progress, used to say: _we bring good things to life._ That was progress: the good life is more things. A hundred or so years ago, that is what we needed to hear. Today, it's the sound of the century we are leaving. And it is the precise opposite of what the Circular Century offers, which is _enough_ — the right amount, kept, maintained, yours. It is aristocratic bearing for the rest of us. Which raises the question. If aspiration is the raw material of the good life, is there anything left to long for where "luxuries" are common? There is, and this is the point. When beautiful objects are everywhere, owning what's scarce is no longer the source of pleasure. That is the _noblesse_ — the nobility that comes from the pursuit of higher goals than the hustle. Noblesse is the "so what" of joy. It is the working knowledge that you own your joy in the material world, that it cannot be rendered obsolete by the next product cycle. Quality was the dividend of Lean. Circularity turns that value into a Quality Cascade, at the end of which sits a kind of dignity that can reach not only every person but, because the waste has been designed out of how we make things, every living thing. Circularity is the decoupling of value from extraction. The good life in the Circular Century is a similar decoupling: the good life unhooked from the economic and environmental hustle that has always been its price. ## A carousel that moved in a straight line The General Electric _Carousel of Progress_ opened at the 1964 World's Fair and runs to this day at Walt Disney World, an Audio-Animatronic family man narrating the march of household progress across the decades, all of it resolving into the Sherman Brothers song _There's a Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow._ We encounter it today as nostalgia. Read it the way Marshall McLuhan taught us to read things, and it becomes something more peculiar. Look at the medium, not the appliances. The audience sat still while the theater revolved around fixed stages. Progress was a thing that happened _to_ you, automatically, while you were carried past it in a comfortable chair. The past stayed put as a diorama you left behind. Tomorrow stayed permanently one act ahead, never arriving, because the show had to loop and the buying had to continue. The medium was a circle. The message was a straight line that never reached its end. A story about a treadmill. Beneath the warm family scene, the good life was something you consumed. The Carousel of Plenty keeps the metaphor and fixes the message. This time the content is finally as circular as the form. Tomorrow stops receding, because the season's promise is not _more_ but _enough_ , and enough is a place you can actually step off the treadmill. ## The season at a glance The Carousel of Plenty was conceived as a catalog, and it reads best as one. Twelve scenes, each depicting something the Circular Century makes ordinary, arranged from the infrastructure outward to the self and its freedoms. The Robot Milkman _The delivery that arrives full and leaves with the empties._ The season opened on the humblest possible image, a little robot that delivers goods _and_ picks up the empties. It symbolizes the larger machine: a business that profits from the return trip, not the replacement sale. → When the maker is paid to take it back, abundance and waste finally stop traveling together. The Atelier _The workshop that keeps alive what you already own._ The institutional form behind the season. Not a store that sells you the next thing, but a house that maintains, alters, and renews the things you have, the way the wealthy have always kept a tailor. → The atelier of democracy: the artisan's relationship with objects, available to everyone. The Neighbors _Production moves back onto the street._ Distributed making, local energy, the productive neighborhood. The supply chain shortens until it runs down your own block. → Sovereignty is partly a matter of distance. The shorter the line, the freer the household. The Living Home _How it feels to live in a home that gets better with time._ The dwelling as the test case for everything. A house that appreciates through care rather than depreciating through neglect. → Maintenance is not a chore you owe the house. It is the house returning the favor. Energy Sovereignty _The house that powers itself, and the grid that thanks it for it._ The three Dynamos made domestic. Distributed power, storage, and intelligence turn the home from a meter into a small, generous utility. → The clearest taste of bearing the season offers: a household that owes the system nothing it cannot supply itself. The Companion Device _The device fitted to you on your first day of school, still yours a lifetime later._ The anti-upgrade. A device that ages like a baseball glove, grows with you and earns its character through the long collaboration between maker, owner, and time. → Systemic Beauty over the spec sheet. The object becomes a record of a life rather than a reject in a landfill. Something Borrowed _Owning, borrowing, pooling: three modes of access, three new freedoms._ The performance economy comes home. You buy the outcome, not the hardware, and the maker stays on the hook for the whole life of the thing. → Access unbundled from ownership is access unbundled from burden. The Curated Wardrobe _Your style — not the season's, not the algorithm's — fitted, refreshed, expertly maintained._ The closet as studio. Clothing chosen for fit and meaning, kept in good order, free of the churn that fashion manufactures. → The morning starts settled. The settledness is the luxury. The Commissary _The good meal, made near you, served like a civic right._ The automat reimagined as a temple of democracy: everyday craft and local food offered with a dignity usually reserved for the costly. → Plenty is not a private hoard. At its best it is a shared room. Personal Mobility _The right vehicle for every trip, owned by no one in particular._ Mobility unbundled from the car in the driveway. Here the season named its own terms: conspicuous consumption giving way to inconspicuous craft, and the Sufficiency Frame arriving as a stated idea. → The freedom is not the second car. It is no longer needing it. Coping with Abundance _What people do once the struggle for enough is finally over._ The turn from catalog to sociology. How earlier breakaways from scarcity — the old aristocracy, the digital generation — handled their abundance, and what the Circular Century can learn from both. → Abundance is not the end of the story. How a culture _carries_ it is. The Circular Century — So What _The last letter asks what all of it is for._ The finale convened a council of the departed and put one plain question to the season: so what? The answer: nothing less than the evolution of humanity into something we can be proud of. → Sovereignty, joy, and worth, folded into one. The _telos_ the furniture was always serving. ## What it was all for Read forward, the season is a showroom. Read backward from the finale, it was never about the robot or the wardrobe. The objects were means. The end was the bearing they produce: a life in which your joy is your own, the material question stays settled, and the dignity of _enough_ extends, for once, to the rest of the living world as well as to you. That is the noblesse the Dynamos make possible, and it is the closest thing to a moral the season has. ## The seat we left empty Every pavilion at a World's Fair had a sponsor. Progressland had General Electric, and the arrangement was honest: the sponsor's products _were_ the content. Progress meant appliances, and GE made appliances. So who sponsors the Carousel of Plenty? By the same logic, it should be the firm whose product _is_ the Circular Century's furnishings — the one the finale called the Toyota of Circularity, the company that proves circularity like Toyota proved Lean. The trouble is that this firm does not exist yet. And it cannot be a company built in GE's image, because GE's whole ethos was _more, forever_ , and the Circular Century's promise is _enough._ The right sponsor is whoever first figures out how to build a great business out of sufficiency, which sounds, in the old grammar, like a contradiction. So we have left the seat empty on purpose. The Carousel of Plenty is, among other things, a casting call. It describes the pavilion in enough detail that the right tenant should recognize the address. > 🔎 _Coming up next season: an answer to the casting call._ ## Parting thought When the season began, the Circular Century was an idea. By the end it was an address, with a robot and a kitchen and a home that ages well. But the thing worth betting on is not these furnishings. It is the decoupling underneath them — the good life finally separated from the hustle that always used to be its rent. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume. The circular economy promises enough, and delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening, and the bearing that comes with knowing it will stay. > 📬 _Thank you for reading this season of The Circudyne Letter._ * * * _Image prompt: A large circular mid-century-modern theater on a sunlit Edwardian country-house lawn - a graceful domed rotunda, taller than the trees around it but settled into the landscape, its curved wall and low segmented dome rising just above a surrounding grove, large enough to dwarf the small empty wicker chairs and tea table on the grass in the foreground, a grand manor house on a rise in the middle distance, deep generous lawn, eye-level view, calm and quiet and faintly uncanny, muted gouache painting, soft painterly flat color, restrained warm palette with silver-teal accents, Rod Serling stillness, no people_
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 22/06/2026
Clarke said that whether or not we are alone in the universe, the prospect is terrifying. This season's final letter asks what would make us worthy of the answer.
circudyne.com
The Circular Century — So What
_This letter is part of the_ Carousel of Plenty_, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the_ Circular Century_. All season we have shown you its furnishings — one solution at a time, things you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world built for permanence rather than disposal. These last two letters set the catalog down and step back to the questions the whole season was built to reach: why this abundance is different from every one that came before it, and what, in the end, it is for. This is the conclusion._ * * * When I was a kid, I really enjoyed reading Arthur C. Clarke. One of his observations has endured in the popular collective consciousness: "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." It's a pretty good line. Tech founders use it a lot. But I'm fonder of a more obscure remark of his: "Either we are alone in the universe or we aren't — and either prospect is terrifying." I call it Clarke's Binary. I like the way Clarke formulated this observation, because it disallows complacency. The moment you consider the choice, the failsafe option — indifference — falls away. If we _are_ alone, then we have to reckon with representing, on our own, the full potential of the entire universe. And if we are _not_ alone, then somewhere out there is someone older and wiser, and one day we may have to account for ourselves to them. I used to think of this as Clarke's "paradox." But it's not a paradox. It's a choice, really. And it's clever because to understand it is to be compelled by it; as there is no logical alternative, there is no procedural opt-out. That's why I've come to think of it as a binary. It's one thing, or the other. Also, it is a set of instructions. Because whichever way it breaks, the work is the same: to make ours a civilization worthy of either answer. This is the last letter of the _Carousel of Plenty_ season. Its mission: to show how life in the Circular Century will feel. Better living through circularity. Hopefully, if you've been following along, it's given moments of hope, maybe aspiration. But even if it has, there is a larger question this (or any) vision of the future has to answer: _so what?_ If the Circular Century is just the latest update on consumer welfare, aren't we just repeating a cycle? It can be something more, but to prove it, we need to account for it. We need to know what the Circular Century is _for_. ## Picturing the unimaginable Let's go back to Clarke's idea. Suppose the reckoning actually came. Suppose, one ordinary morning, a ship set down. In the movies, it usually happens in Washington. For our purposes, let's keep it personal. Let's say the ship lands on the long lawn from last week's letter — the one going gold at the edges, the white chairs, a tennis match half-played. The door opens. The visitors have come to see what we made of the place. Could we walk out across that grass and meet them as neighbors? Could we stand there and answer for ourselves, without flinching? I find I cannot really picture it. Not because it frightens me. Because it sits outside everything any of us has ever lived. We have no memory to reach for, no extraordinary moment that felt remotely like it. The mind just slides off. So let me trade it for a reckoning we can feel. Let's pick a different scene from a different movie. Picture a council of force ghosts, like Obi-wan Kenobi. A small group of luminaries we have lost. People many of us revered, called back for one evening to look us in the eye. This thought experiment is easy for me. I know instantly who I'd hope to be visited by. Two groups of three. Three who loved the living world: Jane Goodall, Jacques Cousteau, Carl Sagan. And three who loved the made world: Steve Jobs, Clayton Christensen, and Peter Drucker. Wise masters all. Here is the thing about this council. They used to be us. They walked the same ground, paid the same taxes, lost sleep over the same headlines. They are on our side; they want us to make it. So their questions would be plain, and answerable, the kind you could actually take up on a normal day. And because they are sitting together as one body, their questions would not contradict each other or leave gaps. Six people. One verdict. We will hear from them. But first, let's consider an alternative perspective. ## Part One — How we got here There are two ways to understand something like the _telos_ of the Circular Century. You can reason forward from where we have been. Or you can reason back from first principles. Let us do both — and see if they arrive at the same place. That is usually how you can tell a thing is true. Start with where we have been. The clearest record of the modern economy we have is the history of the automobile. In 1913, the finest car on earth was a Rolls-Royce. To prove how smoothly it ran, salesmen would stand a coin on its edge on the running engine, and the coin would stay put. It was a beautiful machine, and almost no one would ever have one. Rolls-Royce built a few thousand of the best cars in the world. In the same years, Henry Ford built fifteen million ordinary ones. If you had a dollar to invest in 1913, you put it on Ford, not on Rolls. Craft, perfected, reached its asymptote. By its nature it served only a few. Now skip ahead seventy years. By the 1980s, the smart money was not on Ford anymore. It was on Toyota. Toyota had figured out how to build with Ford's scale and something close to Rolls-Royce's care, at the same time — a way of working we came to call Lean. And Lean gave the world Lexus. There was an ad: a champagne glass tower balanced on the hood of a running LS400, the wine trembling and never spilling. It was the Rolls-Royce coin trick from eighty years before — only now you could drive it home for the price of a good Buick. The circle closed. A car built in the numbers of a Ford and quality of a Rolls, with the cost structure of Toyota. We are standing at comparable fork right now. Today's way of making things is finely honed and, like the Rolls, indiscernibly limited — it runs in a straight line from raw material to landfill, and that line has an end. The step-change is circularity: things made to come back, to be remade, to keep going. Somewhere out there, to be determined in the fullness of time, is circularity's Toyota. And whoever they turn out to be, they will be as far past where we stand today as that Lexus was past the Rolls-Royce Phantom. Industrial gave way to Lean. Linear is giving way to circularity. Call it Lean 2.0 — _craft_ , at _scale_ , that also _lasts_. That is the production story. Two more forces sit underneath it. The first is that we have come into sudden plenty before, and mostly we have fumbled it. Last week's letter walked through two of those windfalls — an aristocracy that mistook its luck for virtue, and a digital generation handed the whole library of the world but left anxious and scattered by the gift. Having plenty is not the same as knowing what to do with it. The second is a choice we made once and can make again. After World War II, there was significant productive overcapacity. We had options for how to use it. The choice we made was to engineer demand to meet the overcapacity: planned obsolescence and its cousins, what I call manufactured dependence. We taught people to want more than they needed, hired the best minds of the age to do it, and pointed the whole apparatus at manufacturing desire. Carlota Perez' analysis has identified the pattern: at the transition from one age to the next, a moment like this one, when a new set of technologies has been built and is ready to be spread, can become a golden age — _if_ we aim it at something worth having. So where does the new plenty actually come from? Not from making more, faster, and burning it off quicker. From three plain things working together. Power you make yourself. Intelligence woven quietly into ordinary objects. And matter that comes back around instead of going to the dump. Supply, on one side. A sense of enough, on the other, so the surplus is not simply squandered. And things made beautiful enough to be worth keeping. Put them together and the surplus is real — and for once, we get to keep it. ## Part Two — What it's for Now the other road. First principles. Let's return to our council. It's not a trial, or a sermon, but a kind of lesson. They teach by asking questions. Drucker speaks first. Are you anticipating the future, he asks, or making it? Are you running on yesterday's logic, or on something new? Christensen leans in. What is the job that actually needs doing? And are you willing to disrupt yourself to do it? Then Jobs. What is it about the world you inherited — built by people no different from you, who came before — that needs changing? And what will you build that other people can use to change it? Now the three who loved the living world. Cousteau, who with a friend invented the Aqua-Lung so he could breathe underwater: Are you called by the wonder of the world? What will you invent to get closer to it? Sagan, who believed our purpose is to be the way the cosmos comes to know itself: Are you a fair witness to the universe as it actually is? And what is your part as a citizen of the pale blue dot, the only home we have ever had? And Goodall: have you treated nature with the respect it deserves? Have you given people the hope they need? Listen to them together and they turn out to be asking one question, posed six ways. It is a charge to lead, and to build, in service to the living world. The people who made things and the people who loved the planet are supposed to be on opposite sides. Sitting on one council, they ask for the same nice thing. That is what the Circular Century is for — to make us _feel_ that not only is it going to be alright, it's actually going to be pretty nice. Most of the time, the right thing feels good — and given enough time, it turns out to be good for everyone. That is pretty much it. But it requires leadership, which is a choice. The choice that feels good in the living up to it. The choice our grandchildren will thank us for. Sovereignty, joy, and worth — they are the same plain truth expressed three ways. Which brings us back to Clarke. If we swap two words around, his admonition lends us quite a bit more agency, and with it, responsibility: "Either we are alone in the universe or we aren't — and _the prospect of either_ is terrifying." Being forced to face reality is hard. Reckoning with logic that deprives us of our comfortable indifference is rough. But that is the nature of progress. The alternative is worse. Recall our council. The point wasn't about discovering whether we are alone or not. It is whether we are worthy of either possibility. A civilization that builds to last, that treats the living world with respect, that keeps faith with its children — that is a civilization worth meeting. And worth being, even if there is no one out there to meet it. That is the moral of the story of the _Carousel of Plenty_. ## The last word I want to save the last word for one of the six members of our imaginary council. Jane Goodall died last October. Before that, she sat alone with a camera and recorded what she wanted said once she could no longer say it herself. Of everyone on the council, she is the one who truly came back to speak to us — underscoring the value of it. These are people who used to be us, who wanted us to make it. She left this proof: > _I would say I was somebody sent to this world to try to give people hope in dark times, because without hope, we fall into apathy and do nothing. And in the dark times that we are living in now, if people don't have hope, we're doomed. And how can we bring little children into this dark world we've created and let them be surrounded by people who've given up? So even… even if this is the end of humanity as we know it, let's fight to the very end. Let's let the children know, you know, that there is hope if they get together. And even if it becomes impossible for anybody, it's better to go on fighting to the end than just to give up and say, "Okay."_ In other words, without hope we fall into apathy and do nothing — and that we owe ourselves more than that. That is the answer to the terror. Hope is what you do with clear eyes. It is how a civilization stays worthy of whatever the universe has in store. So. The Robot Milkman, the atelier, the wardrobe, the commissary, the car.... Twelve letters, twelve possibilities. Add them up and what they bought back is time, and attention, and the freedom to become — the freedom that every age of plenty before this one rationed out to a lucky few. That is what the Circular Century is for. Not more. Better. Worthy of the cosmic answer, whichever it is. _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos_._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 15/06/2026
Every age of plenty before this one was fleeting — squandered by an economy that profits from more. The Circular Century is the first abundance built to stay. Which leaves only the question of how to cope with it.
circudyne.com
Coping with Abundance
_This letter is part of the Carousel of Plenty, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the Circular Century. All season we have shown you its furnishings — one solution at a time, things you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world built for permanence rather than disposal. These last two letters set the catalog down and step back to the questions the whole season was built to reach: why this abundance is different from every one that came before it, and what, in the end, it is for. This is the first._ We keep rebuilding one particular summer. It is the summer of 1913, or a summer like it. A house in the country. A long lawn going gold at the edges. White flannels, a game of croquet nobody is trying very hard to win, with tea. The light is generous. Nobody on that lawn knows that the world which made the afternoon possible has about fourteen months left to live. We have rebuilt that afternoon in our novels and our films more times than anyone can count. We park our cars in garages and call them carriage houses. We buy suits cut to a pattern perfected in Edwardian tailoring rooms. We are, a century on, still a little in love with a class most of us would have served rather than joined. Let's be honest with ourselves about it. The love is real and the reasons for it are mixed. So set aside, for a moment, everything that was unjust about that world, because the thing we actually miss is not the injustice and not the money. It is the bearing. ## Golden age elegy The people on that lawn had been handed a rare gift: the question of survival was settled, and they knew it. The matter of staying alive, staying fed, staying warm — closed. What remained was the question of what to do with a life once that weight is lifted. They answered it with literature and philosophy and a code of conduct they took seriously even when they failed it. There was a _noblesse_ to the nobility. They expected to become their best selves, and they expected it of each other. It was a whole age that prized that kind of self-possession, and it left us these words for it: _I am the master of my fate, I am the captain of my soul._ It was something they believed. Do we? I'm not so sure, as a culture, that we do. It sounds, in 2026, like a platitude printed on a motivational poster. It would be easy to assume a sentiment like that came from that stately lawn. It did not. William Ernest Henley wrote it in 1875, from a hospital bed — the son of a struggling bookseller, one leg already lost to tuberculosis, the surgeons fighting to save the other. He had no estate and no station to fall back on. What he had was a conviction that ran right through the culture of his century: that a person is the author of his own life. That self-possession grew out of an age the economic engine had made independent. But it settled into the culture, not just the class that benefitted most from it. What reached Henley, several degrees removed from that wealth, was the conviction, not the income. The estate did not travel. The bearing did. A penniless invalid could lay as much claim to it as the gentry, because it belonged to the age more than to any estate, or class. You do not need a long lawn to stand the way Henley stood. You need a moment when the weight lifts — and the nerve to use it. That summer afternoon was such a moment. The people on the lawn stood between the mean centuries of feudalism behind them and the grubby machine-century closing in ahead, balanced for a while between the two — survival settled, the deluge not yet arrived. The abundance was new enough to enjoy and not yet old enough to take for granted. There was no slouching, literally or figuratively. And then it was over. The afternoon passed, the way those afternoons do. What we feel looking back — the particular ache of it — is bound up in the brevity: we know, as the people on the lawn could not, how little of it was left. It was a threshold. And the thing about a threshold is that you only ever dwell there for a while. ## We had our own threshold, and we miss that too You do not have to reach back a hundred years to find another one. We had ours, and most of us were there for it. Picture the years between the arrival of the web and the arrival of the smartphone — call it 1991 to 2007. Information had become cheap and close in a way it never had been, and it had not yet become a flood. You went to the internet, and then you left it, and it stayed there. The phone in your pocket was just for calls. That threshold has a perfect monument, and it is the television comedy of the era. _Seinfeld._ _Friends._ _The Office._ Watch them now and notice what the characters get to worry about. A bad date. An awkward lunch. Who said what to whom. These are the troubles of people whose survival is handled and whose attention is still their own. They are comedies of manners, which is the kind of story a culture produces when it finds itself, briefly, with room to breathe. They are the Jane Austen novels of the dial-up age. We are nostalgic for them for the same reason we are nostalgic for the lawn. But again, we should be honest with ourselves. Nobody wants dial-up back. Nobody sane wants the landed estate back. The longing is not for the technology and not for the hierarchy. It is for the balance — for a threshold we were allowed to stand in for a while before it gave way. The ache is not a wish to return. It is evidence of our appreciation of life in the balance. It indicates our longing for a kind of life we keep reaching for and keep losing. ## Every threshold has closed, and some closed in the trenches Because they do give way. That is the bitter fact under the sweetness. The Edwardian summer ended in the literal trenches of the Somme. The young men from the lawn went into the mud and a great many of them did not come back, and the world that produced the afternoon never reassembled. The threshold did not fade politely. It collapsed, all at once, into the worst violence humanity had yet seen. Ours is closing too, and we are already in the trenches of it. We are dug into the feed. We fight a daily war of attrition against a flood that never crests — the notifications, the tabs, the refresh, the monetization of our own attention against us. Somewhere underneath all of it is a person who, as I wrote in a letter last season, just wanted to read a book tonight. The abundance of information that once felt like dipping a toe into an ocean of knowledge now feels like drowning. The tide pulled us in. As it always seems to do. ## The reason has a name Why does every threshold end this way? Is it bad luck, or foolish people making bad choices? Or is it part of the design? Economist Carlota Perez mapped how this works. Each great wave of new technology, she shows, moves through the same stages — an eruption of the new, then a frenzy of money chasing it, then, if we are fortunate, a long stretch of broad prosperity she calls a golden age, and finally maturity and exhaustion, just as the next eruption begins. It is last season's namesake bubble, dignified into a model. The sweet spot — the balanced threshold we keep mourning — is never a place to rest in her account. It is a way-station on a curve that is still accelerating. The frenzy is always coming. The thing always gets overdone. The engine that does the overdoing has an old name. Jevons paradox: make a thing more efficient or more abundant, and we do not bank the surplus, we spend it on more. Clay Christensen described it more plainly — _we husband what is scarce and squander what is plentiful_. The cycle has repeated for a hundred and sixty years. It is the reason the lawn became the Somme and the reason why we're drowning in information. Every honeymoon ends because the engine underneath it cannot idle. I have argued in these pages before that Jevons is a paradox and not a law, and that the cycle finally dies in one specific place: inside the books of a company that earns more by selling less. I will not re-litigate that case here. I will stand on it. Let's stipulate that the link between abundance and excess can be cut, the way harder links have been cut before. The question this whole season has been circling is the next one. Suppose it can be cut. Suppose we build a real abundance, the Circular Century we keep describing. Is it just the next threshold — wonderful for a while, and then overrun like all the others? ## The first abundance built to stay This is where I want to make a friendly corollary to Perez, because her model presents an opportunity for a variant we are in a position to realize. Her cycle has a slot for the golden age. But the golden age is always fleeting. The reason is simple: each paradigm in her analysis ran on scarcity. Its returns came from getting more of something other people could not get — more land, more coal, more oil, more attention, more data. Scarcity-capture is a race with no top speed, and a race with no top speed is what produces the escalation, the frenzy, the eventual crash. She never had a paradigm whose returns came from _enough_. Circularity is that paradigm. It is the first abundance that is self-limiting by design, and it limits itself in two ways at once. A circle feeds itself: its outputs are its inputs, so it cannot run away into the kind of bottomless extraction that always ended in a wall. And its money is made differently. When a company profits from the long life of a thing rather than its rapid replacement, every avoided sale is margin, and the appetite for more — the engine of every past collapse — is simply not in the building. The restraint is not a virtue anyone has to summon. It is in the wiring. Think of the difference in the machines. The old economy ran like a steam engine: a violent stroke of power, then a collapse, then another stroke, faster and harder as it grew. The circular economy runs like an electric motor on a battery that fills from the sun. It does not need the explosion. It is happiest at a steady hum, and it can hum for a very long time. So the threshold need not close. The balance we keep losing — new enough to enjoy, not yet taken for granted — can, for the first time, be the permanent condition rather than a way-station the curve is dragging us past. The window that has slammed on every generation since the steam engine can be made, this time, not to. A golden age that doesn't contain the seeds of its own collapse: that's the promise of the Circular Century. ## A carousel is a circle that does not punish you We have been living, all of us, on a treadmill. It is a circle. You move and move and stay exactly where you are, and the longer you're on it the harder it becomes to stay there. The raise that wears off. The house that becomes normal. The feed that refreshes. Everyone reading this knows the machine, because no one alive has known anything else. The escalation has been the background hum of every human life in living memory. A carousel is also a circle. You go around on it too. But there is music, and a child's delight, and the whole point is the going-around. Same geometry. Opposite life. The difference is entirely in the engine underneath — one that wears you down the longer you stay on it, one built to turn at the pace of a song. The treadmill did not only bury us in things and noise. It took our agency. It turned us into inputs — into the raw material of someone else's growth, measured by what we consumed and how long we stared. You cannot be the master of your fate while you are an input. Stop the escalation, and the condition that made that old couplet sayable comes back. Not the estate. The bearing. The settled question, the room to breathe, the nerve to stand up straight — available now without a lawn, and in a world we are never going to unplug from. That is the unburdening this season has been promising, and it goes deeper than a clean conscience. A clean conscience is relief from guilt. This is relief from the machine itself. Which leaves us, at last, with the joke buried in this letter's title. We have spent a whole season describing an abundance so complete, so handled, so calmly yours, that the only thing genuinely left to figure out is how on earth to cope with it. What does a person do with a life when the weight is finally, permanently lifted — when the question is not how to survive, or how to keep up, but simply how to live? That is next week's letter. For now, it is enough to know that the threshold can become a home. _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos_._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 08/06/2026
The right vehicle for every trip, owned by no one in particular — how the Circular Century unbundles mobility from the car in the driveway.
circudyne.com
Personal Mobility
_This letter is part of the Carousel of Plenty, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the Circular Century. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each letter presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ ### Turn Sunshine into Freedom. And Fun. > Friends, let me tell you about the recipe for turning sunshine into freedom — and fun. > At our house, it starts with panels in the yard. That sunshine — free every morning, never late for the job. Part of that energy goes to a battery. The rest, to a sleek box out back, no bigger than a deep freezer, that drinks the light in and holds onto it. And out of that box comes what we need to carry us through the day and then some. > The sleek box makes the hydrogen that fills up our converted old truck. That truck is more than a dependable old friend. It is a symbol of freedom. Fueling it up requires no station, no pipeline, no bill from anybody downtown. That's my conveyance of choice. > The boy prefers his bicycle. It charges on the porch rail overnight and runs him to school in the cool of the morning. And when Marie has to get clear across town, she taps the glass by the door and a tidy little car comes round the corner, just the right size for the errand, carries her there, and goes on about its business. She doesn't park it. She doesn't own it. She just goes. > Time was, a family needed one big machine to do every last thing, and paid for the whole of it whether it moved or sat. Now we keep the right thing for each thing, and we run it all on light we caught ourselves. > And the wonder of it is the whole street's at it now. Every roof a little powerhouse. When the lights flicker over in the next county, ours stay lit — because the power is ours, made at home, and shared right down the row. > We gave up nothing we loved to get a cleaner, quieter day. We just stopped renting our freedom by the gallon. > Now — that's progress. ### For the Consumer Consider ketchup. For most of the last century it stood alone on the American table. It was the necessary and sufficient condiment because it complemented the same small flight of dishes that most people ate all the time. One red bottle could sit at every elbow and do the whole job. Then the table opened up. A country that once argued over a single condiment learned to cook a hundred cuisines, and to stock its shelves with herbs and grains and peppers to satisfy a more sophisticated palate. The strange and happy result is that we eat better now _and_ enjoy it far more. Now we reach for the ripe avocado or the bowl of pho because it tastes good. The health came along for the ride. Cars are like ketchup. **For a hundred years, one machine had to be and do everything.** The school run and the cross-country haul. The trip for a loaf of bread and the long drive home at the holidays. So each of us bought, and built lives and a society around, the machine that could manage our hardest, rarest day — five seats, a big motor, room for the lumber — and then drove it empty and oversized through all the ordinary ones. A compromise, repeated countless times. **There is a reason that machine kept growing.** The car has carried us, thrilled us, and set us free, and no one is taking that away from it. But look at why it weighs what it weighs. It moves by burning, and burning is a violent business, so the machine has to be heavy enough to contain the violence and armored enough to survive it. Armored, it feels safe, so we drive it faster. Faster, it grows heavier still. Heavier, it grows more dangerous — to the people inside it and everyone outside it — so it calls for more armor. Round and round the spiral goes. The hulking shape of the thing in the driveway is the shape of that spiral, drawn in steel. **The waste is not where you think it is.** We have always assumed the harm a car does is in the driving. Some of it is; much of it is not. By the time a new car reaches the driveway — before it has rolled a single mile — it has already done close to half the environmental damage it will ever do, in the mining and the smelting and the making. The environmental impact is cash on the barrelhead in more ways than one. Which turns the whole matter over. The real waste is not the motion. It is the stillness. And these machines are almost always still. The typical car sits parked about ninety-two percent of its life. When it does move, it carries one and a half people in five seats and turns barely a tenth of its fuel into forward motion — the rest lost to heat and to hauling its own dead weight, some twelve pounds of machine for every pound of person aboard. To keep all of this standing ready, we have given over half the land of the modern city to roads and parking. And the toll in lives we agreed, long ago, to stop seeing. A thing that does its damage at the start and then sits idle is the most wasteful arrangement we could have made. The only way to redeem the harm already spent is to use the thing hard and keep it long. A parked car redeems nothing. **We couldn't have done better before. Now we can.** The car was never really chosen so much as forced — the only sensible answer in a world where summoning the right ride was impossible, where fuel came by the tankful from far away, and where a worn-out vehicle had nowhere to go but the crusher. Three things have changed, quietly and at once. We can now call the right vehicle to the right trip about as easily as we once turned a key. We can make and keep our own power. And we can build a machine to come apart and go round again. Put those together and the one compromise machine breaks into a whole table of them — the right size for each trip, summoned and surrendered, sometimes owned by no one in particular. **We have seen both of these futures drawn before.** At the 1939 World's Fair, the most beloved thing in it was a vast model of an America remade for the car — every need answered by more highway and more horsepower. We built that one, more or less, and got the sprawl and the spiral along with it. A generation later a different man sketched a different city: one where each kind of movement had its own proper place, and the street was handed back to the people walking it. We never built that one. We can build it now. **And in places, we have started.** Paris has been determinedly taking the curb back from cars and giving it to café tables, trees, and room to stroll. The Dutch decided several oil crises ago (who's counting?) that getting around should mean choosing easily among trains and bikes and your own two feet, and laid out their towns to make it work. In New York, the companies that make deliveries are swapping double-parked vans for pedal carts that thread the same streets faster. None of this waited for permission. It is the walkable block of The Neighbors and the home-made power of Energy Sovereignty arriving on the street as ways to move. And out at the far edge of it is the thing the fellow on the porch was getting at: a family making its own fuel from its own roof, beholden to no oil company, no utility, no carmaker — the whole stack of it unbundled, right down to the light that turns the wheels. For most of a century we were told to choose: freedom or thrift, the open road or the light footprint. The unbundled world hands you the whole table and asks you to give up none of it. Freedom, lightness, and fit, all at once. In the Circular Century, we will have it all. We know how to outgrow ketchup. We'll do it again. ### By the Producer Begin with the question every carmaker is asking in the face of evolving demand patterns: if people stop buying cars the way they buy them now, where does the money go? Let's return to Roger Martin's provocation that strategy starts not with what to do next but with what winning would even look like. For the automaker, winning has always meant moving more metal off the lot — more units, more model years, more reasons to trade up. For the company that builds the unbundled world, winning looks like something the old firm is not designed for: to be the one people trust to move them, for a lifetime, across whatever machine the moment calls for. The carmaker wants to sell you your next car. The new firm wants to be the last mobility company you ever need. Where to play follows from that. You do not fight for the crowded center — the driveway, the new-car smell, the trade-in. The opening lies where the car is weakest. Horace Dediu, who named micromobility and titled its manifesto The Car Will Be Unbundled, spent years hunting for a way the car might be disrupted and could not find one: cheaper cars fail against the used-car lot, and electric drive and self-driving only make the incumbent stronger. Then he rode an electric bike, and had his answer in twenty minutes. The disruption was never a better car. It was the short trip the car has always handled worst — the two-mile errand, miserable with parking and cold starts — served by a machine built for purpose. How you win is the part that has waited for the right machines. The private car sits inside a dense web — financed, insured, registered, taxed, fueled, serviced, regulated — and the whole web exists to move it off a lot and keep it running. The new modes fit almost none of it. Recall the law of conservation of attractive profits from Clayton Christensen via Ben Thompson: when the profit drains out of one link as it commoditizes, it reappears at the next link, captured by whoever integrates around the customer. As the car itself becomes a commodity, the profit migrates — to whoever orchestrates the whole portfolio around your trip, and to whoever owns the fleet and sells you the outcome instead of the object. A second move is to migrate the half-century-old performance economy paradigm from B2B to B2C. Recall Rolls-Royce stopped selling jet engines to airlines and started selling flight-hours: the airline buys the thrust, Rolls-Royce keeps the engine and every repair bill. Incentives align this way around better products and higher performance. When a maker keeps the asset, durability turns from an opportunity cost into a profit, and building something to wear out becomes self-sabotage. Point that same move at the driveway and you get a company like Hugo Spowers's Riversimple, which does not sell you a car at all — it keeps the car for its whole life and sells you the miles, so that every breakdown and every drop of fuel is the maker's problem to manage rather than yours, with the natural world written into the company's own charter as a stakeholder with a seat at the table. There is an implicit repair buried in this. Today a car is designed, priced, and sold to its first owner, though it is built well enough to outlast that owner two or three times over — and, at the same time, nowhere near as well as it could be. Compare an airliner: refit on a schedule, maintained to documented standards, its whole decades-long life planned from the drawing board, because the people who built it have their money riding on every year it stays in service. A car gets none of that care, because the maker's interest ends at the sale. Keep the asset, and the second owner stops being an afterthought and becomes a customer worth designing for — and the car is finally engineered like the durable, maintained, decades-long machine it has always physically been. Some incumbents can see the shape of it. BMW's i Vision Circular, a concept the company showed in 2021, was drawn from a blank sheet to come apart: a single clever fastener, etched with the word _circular_ , that frees a wheel or a seat with one turn of a tool; almost no glue, no paint, no chrome, no leather; a body of recycled aluminum and a battery built to be melted down into the next one. It keeps itself current through software and "options as a service" rather than the trade-in, and when it is parked it can feed power back to the house and the grid. It is a beautiful piece of thinking. It is also the right design still wearing the old business model — because all that lovely disassembly only pays the company that builds the car if that company is also the one that keeps it. The design is ready. The model is the leap. Most of what gets sold as the future of driving is not. Cheaper cars, electric drivetrains, even the self-driving car — each one makes the existing car better and the existing carmaker stronger. The driverless car has a real place at this table; think of it as the descendant of the old monorail, the smooth automatic shuttle, now loosed from its track and folded into the mix as one mode among many. But a company that bets everything on "the same car, now without a driver" has made the safe wager and dressed it up as a bold one. And it is not only the carmakers who should be uneasy. The change reaches the whole apparatus that privileges the car — the road engineers, the parking minimums, the fuel taxes, the agencies whose every habit assumes a world of private automobiles. They are incumbents too. They will be moved. There is a pattern in which brands survive a shift like this one. The ones that endure join the counterculture rising against the old order rather than defend it. We wrote, in Are You a Punk?, about the quiet rebellion of people building lives that no longer depend on systems that have stopped serving them — the menders, the growers, the ones making their own power. A mobility company crosses over to them not with an advertisement about freedom but by handing them the real article: a way to move whose terms they own. And the reward for crossing over compounds. A household carried for thirty years is worth more than any showroom sale could ring up — not a row of transactions but a long, rising curve, captured whole by the company that owns the life of the machine and the trust of the person it carries. > The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved. Join the Dynamos. ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 01/06/2026
What if the best place in town were the one we all went to? The Commissary is the Automat reborn — good food made special, and within everyone's reach.
circudyne.com
The Commissary
_This letter is part of the Carousel of Plenty, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the Circular Century. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each letter presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ ### The Best Place in Town Is the Place We All Go. > Friends, there's a place down the street I want to tell you about. > It's a little like the old Automat, if you're old enough to remember those — the wall of small glass doors, a coin in the slot, a sandwich waiting behind the window like a present. My grandmother used to talk about hers the way other people talk about a church. But this is a new thing, and I think it's a better one. > You walk in around six and the whole neighborhood is already there. The Petersons in the corner. The young couple from the third floor, taking turns with the baby. The fellow who fixes everyone's bicycles, eating by himself and not minding one bit, because nobody stays by himself for long in a room like this. There's a counter where the food is, and it is good food — the kind you'd be proud to put on your own table, because somebody close by grew it and somebody close by cooked it. > Here's the part I love best. People don't just sit. They get up between bites and wander over to another table to say hello, to hear how the trip was, to settle who's bringing what on Sunday. A plate in one hand and the news in the other. It's a party that happens to serve supper. > And on one of those nights when you're worn through and the day was too long, you take it home in a box, and nobody thinks a thing of it. The door is always open. The coffee is always on. > That's the truth about the best place in town. It isn't the fanciest one. It's the one we all go to. ### For the Consumer > There was nothing like the coffee at the Automat > Its aroma and its flavor were supreme > from a silver dolphin spout > the coffee poured right out > not to mention at the end > a little spurt of cream! > — from "(There's Nothing Like) The Coffee from the Automat", written and sung by Mel Brooks Once, there was a restaurant where a nickel bought the best cup of coffee in the city. It was called the Automat, and for most of the last century there were scores of them across Philadelphia and New York, feeding hundreds of thousands of people a day. You came in off the street into a room of marble and chrome and stained glass, a room built like a bank or a temple. Along one wall stood little glass doors, hundreds of them, each with a dish waiting behind it: a wedge of pie, a bowl of creamed spinach, a sandwich, a slab of cake. You dropped your coins in the slot, turned the knob, and the door swung open. You carried your plate to a table. No waiter. No tipping. No one whose job was to decide whether you belonged. The banker and the bricklayer and the young woman who had come to the city alone all ate the same fresh pie under the same colored glass. A newspaper rhyme from the thirties imagined the technocrat, the plutocrat, the autocrat, and the Democrat all laying down their quarrels to go eat together at the Automat. People called it the most democratic room in America, and they meant it. **It worked because of three quiet inventions, none of them food.** * The first was automation. The little doors and the coin slots did the work a roomful of waiters would have done, which meant the money that would have gone to serving could go to cooking instead, and the savings could come back to you. * The second was standardization. Behind that wall of glass doors sat a central kitchen — the company called it a commissary — where the pie was made to one exacting recipe and sent out fresh to every location in the city, and the coffee was made fresh and poured out on a strict clock, long before it could turn bitter. A nickel did not buy you cheap coffee. It bought you the very same coffee, held to the very same standard, that it bought the man in the good suit two tables over. * The third was care lavished on the whole experience: the marble, the light, the easy flow of the room. The Automat had decided that an ordinary meal, taken by an ordinary person, was worth staging like an occasion. Put those three together and you have the wonder of the age: good food made genuinely special and genuinely cheap at the same time. **The dolphin was the part with no reason to exist.** At the coffee station, the coffee did not come from a pot or a plain tap. It poured from the mouth of a dolphin — a spout of polished metal, cast and shaped into a dolphin's head, for no reason except that someone had decided the best coffee in the city deserved to dispense in a small ceremony. People remembered that dolphin for the rest of their lives. They remembered it longer and more fondly than they remembered meals at far grander places. The success of that detail is worth thinking about, because there was no business case for it. A length of pipe would have poured the same coffee. But the people who built the Automat understood something that can't be captured in a spreadsheet: that a small, beautiful detail, met every single morning, becomes part of how a person feels about being alive. Steve Jobs's father taught him to finish the back of the cabinet — the side that faces the wall, that no buyer will ever see — because the craftsman would know it was there. The dolphin is that same lesson, turned around to face the customer. It is the back of the fence, painted, and handed to you with your coffee. **Then it died.** The nickel held for the better part of forty years. Forty years is long enough that a price stops being a price and becomes a promise. But the coin slots had been built for nickels, and they could not take pennies. So when costs finally climbed — after the war, when everything climbed — the price of the coffee could not creep up an honest penny at a time. It had to wait, and hold, and then leap all at once to a dime. Twice the price, overnight, in the autumn of 1950. The newspaper called it a black day for coffee drinkers. People felt it as a betrayal, and they were right to. Within the year the company was pouring tens of millions fewer cups. The very machine that had made the cheap coffee possible — the coin slot, the automation, the first of those three quiet inventions — was the thing that turned a gentle rise into a broken promise. The Automat's genius and the Automat's undoing were the same mechanism. The tools that let it hand out a nickel's worth of dignity in 1912 were the tools that could not bend in 1950. The rest of the story happened to every Main Street in the country. Families moved to the suburbs. The car replaced the walk. A new kind of cheap food arrived, faster and thinner, sold through a window to a person who never left the driver's seat, and it answered a real need — the need to be fed in a hurry in a hurry-up world. The Automat could not answer that need without ceasing to be itself. The marble rooms emptied out. The last one closed its doors in 1991. By then the dolphins were being sold off at auction, one at a time, to people who remembered. **The Commissary is the Automat's promise, kept by better machines.** Consider what we lost when those rooms emptied — and what replaced them never gave back. What replaced the Automat was the drive-through and, in time, the glowing phone that brings a stranger's cooking to your door. Both kept the part where someone else cooks. Both threw the rest away. We lost the _standard_ — the Automat's hidden kitchen answered to one exacting recipe, while the delivery kitchen answers to no one you could ever reach, a ghost kitchen tuned to a ratings average with no name behind the food. We lost the _room_ — eating became something you did alone, in the car, in front of a screen. We lost the _dignity_ of the thing, the old sense that an ordinary supper was worth setting a real table for. And quietly, we lost some of the _plain health_ that comes with food that in the ground last week and grew nearby. A new kind of neighborhood kitchen hands all of it back, and it can do so now for the same reason the Automat could do it then: the machines underneath have changed. The power that runs it is made close by, on the roof and out over the field, so the lights and the cold-rooms and the ovens no longer answer to a wire strung from five states away. The coordination that once took a dozen managers now runs quietly in the background — what is ripe, what is needed, what is left over — matched and routed without waste and without fuss. The kitchen draws from farms a short drive out, on lines fresher and shorter than any chain can run, its menu moving with the seasons, the summer tomatoes and the autumn squash showing up when the ground actually offers them. And where the ground needs a hand, there are sophisticated growing rooms nearby that make good food possible the year round. What those rooms take in is, more and more, what the old system used to throw away: the trimmings and the spent grounds and the scraps come back around as the feedstock for the next harvest. A closed loop turns out to be more than kindness to the earth. It is good arithmetic, and the arithmetic is what holds the price honest. Steve Nygren, who built a community in Georgia around the idea, distills it down to this: _buy your food from someone you know_. Not food wearing a clever label. Food with a person standing behind it — a face, a name, a handshake somewhere up the line. That is what provenance has always actually meant. Not a sticker that reads "local." A relationship. Perhaps you're thinking, well we tried slow and careful once, and the world picked fast and cheap instead. The world did not pick fast and cheap. It picked _convenience_ , and fast-and-cheap happened to be the only kind of convenience for sale at the time. Convenience has grown up since. A neighborhood kitchen that knows you, feeds you well, gives you a good room to enjoy it in, and hands you a warm box at the door on the nights you cannot stay — that is far more convenient than the drive-through ever was. It only took us seventy years and a better set of machines to build it. The best place in town is still the place we all go. We only had to learn how to build it again. ### By the Producer If you feed people for a living — a restaurant group, a fast-food operator, a delivery company, a regional distributor, a farm hunting for somewhere better to sell — the Automat's history is not nostalgia. It is a map, and most of the territory on it is still unclaimed. Begin with the aspiration, because strategy begins there. Roger Martin teaches that a winning strategy starts not with what to do next but asking what winning would even look like. For the fast-food chain and the delivery app, winning has always meant more orders — more tickets an hour, more drivers on the road, more frequency wrung from each customer. For the Commissary, winning looks like something beyond: to become the place a neighborhood eats, for a generation, so completely that grabbing a sad meal to eat alone in the car comes to feel like the thin substitute it always was. The chain wants more orders. The Commissary wants to be the table you keep coming back to. Where to play follows from that. You do not play where the chains are strongest — the busy corners already lined with drive-throughs and lit by delivery signs. You play where good food never comes: the neighborhood that gets a fast-food franchise and nothing better, the small town with a drive-through and no table worth sitting at. Kashi Sehgal, who runs a vertically integrated local-food company in the South, puts the principle plainly — the national operator will never come to the poorest neighborhood, but a local one who owns the whole chain, from the farm onward, can. The place the incumbents have written off is not a charity case. It is open ground. How you win is the part that has waited a hundred years for the right machines. You win by integrating what the others leave loose. The fast-food chain keeps its relationship with you deliberately thin: place the order, take the bag, leave, and no one is responsible for whether you ate well or ate at all. The delivery app went further and commoditized the kitchens themselves — your favorite restaurant reduced to an interchangeable thumbnail, ranked by an algorithm, while the app kept the customer, the data, and the cut. Clayton Christensen gave us this law: when the profit drains out of one link in a chain because everyone can do it, the profit reappears at the next link, captured by whoever integrates around the customer. The Commissary integrates exactly where they all went thin. It takes back the relationship they abandoned — it pays the farmer fairly, serves a good meal affordably, and earns its margin across the whole loop, so that, as Sehgal says, you can lower the price without lowering the dignity. This is the move of a truly great platform, pointed at dinner. It captures its value slowly, across a relationship that does not end, rather than all at once in a sale that does. The household that eats with you for thirty years is worth more than the lucky concatenation of any single order to any other. The figure that describes that household is not the arithmetic of a transaction but the long, compounding curve of a relationship that never churns. Which brings us to the hard part, and the reason the territory is still open. This is patient work, and patient capital is rare. By one estimate from inside the field, some forty billion dollars of venture money has been burned trying to fix food on a software schedule — a ten-year fund leaning on a thing that gives a farmer perhaps thirty growing seasons in a working life. The harmony was off. Food is not software, so the money died. The Commissary cannot be built on a clock that either. The kitchen takes years to raise and is meant to stand for generations; the soil it leans on improves on the unhurried pace layer of nature. The capital has to match the thing. The producer who finds patient money — blended, mission-aligned, content to compound rather than flip — gets to build on ground they get to keep. And there is a final piece of the work that shows up on no balance sheet and decides everything anyway. The brand that builds the Commissary is not selling dinner. It is restoring something — the dignity of the farmer, the honor of a good meal, the room where a neighborhood comes to know itself. Douglas Holt has shown that the brands that become icons are the ones that give a cultural longing its voice. The longing is already here, plain to anyone who looks: people are tired of eating alone, out of containers handed through a window or left at the door. The producer who says so, clearly and early, and then builds the room that answers it, becomes the name the whole change is remembered by. * * * _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved. Join the Dynamos._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 25/05/2026
What if your wardrobe just got better instead of bigger? The Curated Wardrobe is clothier as tailor at scale — so anyone can dress smart.
circudyne.com
The Curated Wardrobe
_This letter is part of the_ Carousel of Plenty_, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the_ Circular Century_. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each essay presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ * * * ### Dressed Right. Settled. > Now then, friends. Pull up a chair. Let me tell you about the morning my daughter started her new job. > She'd been working toward it for years. Law school, then the clerkship, then the long wait for the offer. And the morning came. She'd been ready for weeks. I don't mean ready in the sense of preparation. I mean ready in the sense of _prepared_. Tailored for the job. > She'd picked the cut herself, last spring. Charcoal wool, single button. The shirt a soft white cotton. The Atelier did two fittings across the summer; she wouldn't have it any other way. The Robot Milkman delivered the rotation from the Atelier the Tuesday before. Took back the things she wouldn't need. Maybe two dozen pieces in the closet, all told. Every one of them earning its place. > That morning, she opened the closet. There was never a question. She didn't pull three things off hangers and lay them on the bed and put two back. She reached in and chose. The shoes were already polished, sitting in the line she'd put them in the night before. In three minutes, she was dressed. > Now folks, here's the part that gets me. She didn't think about her clothes once that whole day. Not in the elevator, not at the desk, not in the meeting with the partners. It was all put together. > A purpose-built, custom-fitted wardrobe: that's how every kid should get to start. This is how being well-dressed used to feel only for the children of senators and bankers. The kind of folks who had someone to lay out their things, to fetch what needed fetching, to send the rest off when the season turned. Now it's for everyone. > She got to spend the day being who she was, instead of who she was wearing. > My friends, I couldn't be prouder. * * * ### For the Consumer Perhaps there is a certain closet in your life. A closet with a preponderance of garments that haven't been worn this year. A few haven't been worn at all — bought because they were on sale, or because they looked right in the store light, or because you needed something for that one event. The drawers are heavier than they should be. Somewhere there's a bag of returns you keep meaning to take to the post office. This closet costs you. Time every morning. The small dignity of arriving somewhere knowing you look right. And money — $500 billion vanishes every year in clothes nobody wears, much of it tossed by consumers, much of it burned by retailers who never managed to sell it. Ninety-two million tons of garment waste reach landfills every year. More than 30% of fashion bought online comes back, often before it's been worn. The closet of disappointments has a balance sheet, and somehow both sides are suffering. Marie Kondo tells us to keep only the things that spark joy in closets like this one. It is constructive advice. But everything in this closet was designed to spark _desire_ instead — the brief, hot feeling that gets you to the checkout and dies on the way home. Joy is a different kind of light. The long-burning kind. The clothes you reach for again and again because they feel like you. That kind of light is hard to generate from a system designed for repetition. #### From dictation to counsel The Curated Wardrobe inverts the relationship the linear economy taught you to expect with a clothier. Today the clothier dictates: this season's silhouette, this season's color, this brand's collection. You choose among offerings, but style is curated _for_ you — by Vogue, the algorithm, the mall's inventory. You are positioned as the recipient of taste. Tomorrow the individual dictates and the clothier executes. Style is expressed _by_ you, with the atelier's craft. The clothier's job is realization, not direction. The clothier advises and executes — and stops there. There's a contemporary attempt at this. Stitch Fix and the algorithmic-curator generation built real machinery — preference modeling, AI-assisted personalization, fit prediction — and pointed it at a real problem: matching what the individual actually wants. That intent is more than the fashion industry as a whole has typically managed. But the algorithm is optimized to drive transaction flow, not to tend the relationship. The high return rate is the cost. Garments physically move so the algorithm can refine its preference signal one transaction at a time. Waste in service of preference matching is still waste, and it is still the wrong path. The Curated Wardrobe is what the same machinery does when the business model rewards the long covenant rather than the seasonal transaction. Three structural shifts make the inversion viable now. The craftsmanship and finishing that used to require a personal tailor, a valet, and a wardrobe consultant is available as a service — the economics of the bespoke house extended to the citizen who could never have walked through its door. Clothiers no longer need to sell mass quantities; the business model has adapted to long relationships rather than seasonal restock, so small curators with good taste can survive on the merits of their judgment. And the individual retains the final authority at the moment of choice — the brief, decisive test Kondo gave us, which we call the Joy Test. _It sparks joy, or it does not._ The yes earns the thing its place. The no says the citizen has enough. #### Three postures, one service The Curated Wardrobe doesn't ask you to dress a particular way. It asks you what way you'd like to dress and arranges itself around the answer. * **The uniformist** wants permanence. Steve Jobs had his black turtleneck. Einstein, by some accounts, kept seven identical suits in his closet so he never had to spend a thought on what to wear. The service keeps the rotation right and the question moot. * **The expressive** wants to evolve. Try things, change with the year, be seen in something new. The service gives them range without the ownership burden — the atelier handles the refresh. The Joy Test still gates what enters; nothing comes in that the citizen wouldn't keep. * **The standard-wearer** is clear about what works and intends to keep it. The atelier handles the seasonal swap on the standards. Nothing changes about the look. The fabric is fresh. The fit is current. The clothier thrives perfecting the favorites. None of these postures is subordinate to the others. The service holds all three at once, because the architecture — not the algorithm — makes the citizen's style sovereign over the clothier's. #### The objection _"But if everyone designs their own clothes, won't the result be awful?"_ A fair question. Good taste is scarce. The Curated Wardrobe doesn't pretend otherwise. What changes is the mode of distribution of good taste, not its scarcity. Today good taste is gatekept — by Vogue's edit, by the brand's collection, by the algorithm's recommendation engine. The individual is positioned as the recipient. Tomorrow good taste is voluntarily associated with. The individual is the author. Curators become chosen advisors, not imposed gatekeepers. The Quality Cascade — the slow downward flow of craftsmanship over time from elite makers to mainstream practice that Schumpeter described — democratizes the _craft of execution_. More people have access to a well-made, well-fitted thing. The Sufficiency Frame — positioning to serve satisficers over maximizers — makes small production runs viable; a curator with good taste can survive without scaling to mass volume. And the Joy Test runs in both directions: a yes draws on the Cascade, a no rests on the Frame. People still look to their environment for cues — but they choose whom to look to. Good taste's _value_ grows under this arrangement, because access to its execution is broader and the demand for thoughtful curation is higher. There will always be arbiters of taste, the way there will always be therapists, artists, and tennis coaches. They earn their authority through voluntary association. Few will buy anything solely on the say-so of a trusted brand. Many will pay a thoughtful curator who teaches them what works. #### How the brand conveys taste The clothier's role is to convey, not to dictate. Three elements of the brand's design discipline each play a part in the individual's style journey. * Compositional Logic — the brand's pieces compose by construction. Trousers, jackets, shirts, shoes share a unified design grammar. The individual doesn't have to be a stylist to coordinate; the pieces already work together. Style is the selection the individual makes from a coherent system. The freedom is composing within a grammar that guarantees fit. * Instructional Design — the atelier shows the work. The artisan explains why this fabric drapes this way, why this proportion reads as elegant, why this color works for the citizen's coloring. The brand conveys what it knows. The citizen leaves more fluent in their own style, capable of choosing well without the brand's seasonal direction. * Timelessness — the wardrobe's spine is made of designs that survived. The wool overcoat. The cotton oxford. The silk scarf. The well-cut trouser. Unchanged across decades because the geometry was right from the start. Economically dominant under the Sufficiency Frame because the business model no longer requires planned aesthetic obsolescence. Together they replace the seasonal-magazine-fashion-tip mechanism. Not by gatekeeping, but by making the principles legible. The Curated Wardrobe builds the citizen's taste fluency, not their dependence. That is the consumer's experience. Now we have to look at how the clothier makes it possible. * * * ### By the Producer The clothier in this model lives with an inversion that should, by the linear economy's logic, be ruinous: the better the relationship goes, the less the customer shops. A satisfied customer in the Curated Wardrobe stops needing seasonal restock. She stops browsing. She stops returning. And yet the business has to grow. The resolution begins with a mental model shift. The clothier here operates as a tailor at scale — paid for relationship and craft over years, with intimate knowledge of each client's body, taste, and life. The AI engine, the atelier network, and the Robot Milkman are part of an ecosystem that extends this tailor's model from a few dozen clients per tailor to a few million per brand. The manufacturer's economics — selling units, turning inventory, optimizing same-store sales — do not apply here; the tailor's economics do. Roger Martin's choice cascade — winning aspiration, where to play, how to win, what capabilities and management systems make it possible — is the operational unpacking of that model. #### Winning aspiration: be the brand the citizen stops shopping with The clothier's aspiration in the Curated Wardrobe is made clear by the satisfied customer's testimony: _I haven't shopped in years. My wardrobe just gets better._ The line reads as a complaint only to ears trained on the linear economy. To the clothier in the Curated Wardrobe, it is the customer testimony she most wants to earn. Her wardrobe is being maintained — by the atelier, by the Robot Milkman, by the design discipline that keeps the system coherent across seasons of the year, and of life — and her experience of it is improvement, not erosion. The friction is gone. The decisions are made. The relationship is producing its intended result. For the clothier, this is the win condition. Not transactions per quarter. Not collection sell-through. The win is the individual who arrives at a Curated Wardrobe and never voluntarily leaves. #### Where to play: threshold moments, not seasonal calendars The linear-economy clothier segments the year. Spring/Summer, Fall/Winter, holiday, resort. Each segment is an occasion for a transaction. The Curated Wardrobe clothier segments the life. The customer enters at a threshold moment — the first job, the return from maternity leave, the relocation, the late-career transition into a different line of work — and stays through every threshold that follows. The atelier is built to receive her at each one. This shift in segmentation changes the unit of analysis. A customer is not a season's repeat visitor; she is a decades-long relationship, and the right entry point is the moment her existing arrangements stop working. A first job demands a wardrobe she does not yet have. A new role calls for a style she has not yet developed. A child changes the day's activities. A move changes the climate. Each moment is a chance to onboard — and once she is in, the seasonal swap, the maintenance, the steady refinement, all become the relationship's normal rhythm. The seasonal calendar fails not because it is mathematical nonsense, but because it segments the customer's life by the brand's production schedule rather than by the customer's identity changes. The Curated Wardrobe segments by the customer. #### How to win: the tailor's craft, at scale The clothier wins by making the tailor's craft executable at scale. The technology stack that does this work is a hallmark of the Circular Century. The AI engine models fit, preference, and style with enough fidelity to advise without dictating. It learns from the individual's choices, from the atelier's refits, from the Joy Test's yes-and-no record across years — a long-cycle model trained on a relationship rather than a transaction-flow optimizer trained on a basket. The atelier is the physical interface. It is where the artisan touches the cloth. Where the fit is corrected. Where the brand's design grammar is taught hand-to-hand. Couture-grade execution at neighborhood density, made viable by the Quality Cascade. The Robot Milkman handles the rest. Returns, repairs, seasonal swaps, fabric refreshes, the deliveries of the new and the retirements of the no-longer-fitting. The atelier never asks the customer to schlep a garment back to a store, because the logistics layer does the schlepping silently. Holding all three together is the brand's design discipline — Compositional Logic so the pieces always work, Instructional Design so the citizen grows fluent in their own style, Timelessness so the spine of the wardrobe persists across decades and the small runs of refinement and refresh stay economically viable under the Sufficiency Frame. No fashion incumbent has this stack. No DTC entrant has it. No algorithmic-curator startup has it. The combination is the moat. #### Value capture over time The tailor's economic model is built around the lifetime relationship, not the transaction. Revenue per client per year compounds as the relationship deepens. Cost to serve declines as the tailor accumulates knowledge of the client's body, taste, and life. The Curated Wardrobe extends this from a few dozen clients per tailor to a few million per brand, and the per-client economics scale with it. * **Year one: invest.** The citizen arrives at her threshold moment. Foundational fittings, materials sourcing, AI engine ingest of fit data and Joy Test responses. Customer acquisition cost is high; revenue is moderate. The clothier is opening the customer's book. * **Years two through five: maturation.** Seasonal swaps and steady refinements become predictable. The atelier's work concentrates on refresh and refit, not ground-up construction. The AI model's advisory accuracy rises. Annual revenue per citizen stabilizes; margin per relationship rises as the marginal cost of serving an existing client falls. The book begins to pay back. * **Years five through fifteen: steady state.** The wardrobe is mature; the citizen rarely arrives with a structural new need. The work is maintenance — the seasonal swap, the periodic repair, the occasional commission for a meaningful occasion. Volume is intentionally low, gated by the Joy Test. Margin per client is high: the cost to serve is low, the trust is deep, premium pricing is accepted on the work she chooses to commission. This is the phase where the linear manufacturer's economics fail — a customer who is not shopping but is producing steady, high-margin annual revenue. * **Year fifteen onward: heritage.** The first wool overcoat, now three decades old, comes in for a refresh, not a replacement. The customer's daughter is introduced to the atelier at her own threshold moment, and multi-generational economics begin. Cost to serve approaches zero on the existing wardrobe; revenue from refreshes and new-generation acquisition compounds. The clothier has become infrastructure to the customer's family identity. Where the linear manufacturer measures Customer Lifetime Value as average order × frequency × years-to-churn, the at-scale tailor measures it as the integral of annual relationship revenue across a relationship that does not churn. Plot the two curves: the manufacturer's spikes at acquisition and decays toward churn; the tailor's rises through onboarding, plateaus into a high-margin steady state, and steps up at multi-generational acquisition. The shapes are different, and so are the businesses. #### Capabilities, systems, and what the clothier must retire The capabilities the Curated Wardrobe clothier must build are unfamiliar to fashion: fit modeling at population scale, atelier networks with consistent craft standards, logistics integration that handles bi-directional flow, design discipline enforced as a brand-wide grammar, customer relationship management measured in years, and small-run precision manufacturing. The management systems are even more unfamiliar. Churn is the failure mode. A citizen who leaves the relationship is not a normal market dynamic; she is a signal that the model has failed her. Years-of-relationship is the leading indicator — the longer the average relationship runs, the healthier the business, regardless of what same-store sales would say. And the clothier must retire what made the linear-economy fashion business legible: the seasonal collection as cadence, the inventory turn as efficiency, the celebrity-curator edit as marketing, the markdown cycle as inventory clearance. None of those instruments measure the right thing in the Curated Wardrobe. None of them serve a customer the clothier is trying to keep for life. #### The atelier evolves with the customer One feature carries through every life stage and resolves what would otherwise be the clothier's hardest segmentation problem: the same atelier serves the citizen across decades because the atelier's register evolves with her. At twenty, the atelier is part tattoo parlor, part hot-rod shop — a place for experimenting with identity, for the deliberate provocation of a chosen look, for the first acts of self-authorship. The artisans engage the questions the young citizen is actually asking: who am I becoming, and what do I want the world to read off me? At forty, the register shifts. The materials are haute. The fit is exact. The composition is settled. The atelier is the place where the citizen expresses the self she has become — refined, confident, no longer in dialogue with the question. At sixty, the register shifts again. Now the work is heritage. That wool overcoat that has been with her for thirty years is here for a refresh, not a replacement. The younger pieces in the atelier exist in conversation with the older ones; the artisans are curating across decades, not seasons. The atelier becomes a place of continuity. The brand grows with the individual. The clothier does not need to compete for her at each new life stage, because the relationship is already there — adapting, evolving, persisting. The atelier is one building. The work inside it changes as the citizen changes. That is what makes it possible for the clothier to win by being the brand the citizen stops shopping with. That is the producer's architecture. What it asks of the practitioner is the work of the next section. * * * > Image prompt: An open closet on a bright morning, a small carefully curated wardrobe on wooden hangers citrine yellow jacket prominent, teal blouse, coral red scarf, charcoal sweater, canvas shoes lined up below warm sunlight streaming through a window beside the closet, a handwritten atelier card visible on one hanger, a small wooden bench in the foreground with a folded sweater laid out ready for the day, light wood floor, pearl gray walls, the room warm and ordered, mid-century advertising illustration style, 1960s World's Fair poster aesthetic, bold confident graphic design, flat color areas with clean edges, warm optimistic palette featuring citrine yellow and teal and coral red accents, Madison Avenue print advertisement quality, retro-futuristic consumer optimism, clean sans-serif typography feel, slightly stylized figures without detailed faces, cheerful domestic scene, gouache and screenprint texture * * * _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 18/05/2026
The performance economy comes home.
circudyne.com
Something Borrowed
_This letter is part of the**Carousel of Plenty** , a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the _Circular Century_. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each essay presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ ### Nothing in the Garage. Everything Within Reach. > You know, folks used to measure a man by what was in his garage. The drills he owned. The lawnmower he kept tuned. The good ladder. The pressure washer he'd splurged on. Twenty years of equipment piled up against the day he might need it. > Well, friends, our garage doesn't have any of that. And let me tell you why. > Down at the corner there's a building — well-lit, glass front, friendly folks hanging around. That's where we keep the drill. A good one. The kind that would set you back two hundred dollars new and would sit in your garage the other 359 days of the year. Nobody on our block owns one. We share the one at the corner. > Last Saturday Mother needed a picture hung in the front hall. I walked down, signed the drill out — twenty seconds, no fuss — and walked home. Forty minutes later the picture was up and the drill was back at the corner. By dinner three other people will have used it. By the weekend, more work than any garage-bound drill ever managed. The kind of work the engineers who designed it had in mind. > But friends, that's not the part I wanted to tell you about. Walk past the tool room at the corner and you find another door. Open it up and inside is a model railroad layout — a real beauty. There are hills. Valleys. A little wooden bridge. Two retired engineers in the neighborhood keep it humming. The carpenter from down the street built the mountains. The former president of the town council runs the longest meeting of his life now, every Wednesday night, working out the timetables. > And the kids on the block? They wander in. Nobody invited them. The door is just there, and one of them stuck his head in one Saturday, and the retired professor said _want to see how this works?_ and the boy said yes. Now my granddaughter can solder. The professor's still teaching. > None of those men could have built that layout alone. None of them would have. The boys would never have learned to solder from a structural engineer if the door hadn't been right there, in the same building where their parents go to borrow a drill. > Something borrowed. Built together. Better than owning. > _This is life in the Circular Century, friends. The right tool. The right room. The right neighbors. And nothing in the garage you don't need._ * * * ## For the consumer Do you own a drill? Almost certainly. If you don't, maybe you have been thinking about buying one. Maybe you feel the small shame of not having one. A drill in your garage represents something the conventional wisdom treats as a single thing — _ownership_ — with four distinct payoffs we have learned not to separate. The first is **identity**. A Leatherman multitool in your pocket signals competence. The fly rod in the garage deems you a fly-fisher even on the days you don't fish. The well-stocked workshop says something about its keeper. The second is **sovereignty**. The drill is yours at 3 a.m. when you need it. No permission slip, no queue, no rental counter, no apology to anyone. The third is **persistence**. The drill evokes memories. Maybe some of the tools belonged to your grandfather. Ownership provides an uninterrupted temporal layer. The fourth is **mastery**. The drill rewards familiarity. Good tools are tuned and broken in. Ownership is the precondition for the kind of mastery that requires a particular object across a particular span of years. These payoffs are real. Any honest account of the qualities of ownership has to honor them. But there are burdens that come with ownership. Equally real but less articulated, they are the part the linear economy has trained us to accept. * _Storage as tax._ Every owned thing claims square footage. The garage is not free. The unused half of every closet is not free. The storage locker is certainly not free. * _Maintenance as obligation._ Every owned thing is a small dependent. Batteries to charge. Edges to sharpen. Calibrations to check. The thing waits for your attention, and over a lifetime the cumulative attention for our stuff adds up to thousands of hours. * _Idle capital._ The cordless drill in the suburban garage runs at a lifetime utilization rate of less than 1%. By the time it is replaced, it has performed perhaps a dozen of the ten thousand hours its chassis was engineered for. The depreciation continues at full speed during the 99% idle. * _Fixed configuration._ The drill you own is whatever drill you bought. The job that needs a hammer drill, or an impact driver, or a right-angle drill, finds you with the wrong tool. This is the dynamic Walter Stahel observed in the 1980s and named the Performance Economy. Rolls-Royce, gifted at making durable and efficient engines, found the best way to help its customers was to charge them for thrust by the hour. Xerox started selling pages instead of photocopiers. In each case the producer's incentive flipped: the longer the asset lived, the better it performed, the more revenue it generated. The customer hired the outcome; the supplier delivered the capability. The math worked for goods with high capital intensity — millions per engine — because the spread between owned-but-idle and hired-and-active was too big to miss. It was simply better business for both sides. That same dynamic applies to the drill, the ladder, the sewing machine, and the pressure washer. The per-asset spread is smaller, but the aggregate spread — across a neighborhood's worth of underutilized tools — is large enough to sustain a real institution. The Library of Things, already operating in hundreds of cities, is what that institution looks like at one end of the capability spectrum. Zipcar is the same pattern applied to vehicles, mature enough now to count as an antecedent rather than a novelty. The historical frictions of borrowing have structural answers when the institution is designed well. The trust failure of the neighbor who didn't return becomes irrelevant when the institution holds the asset. The friction tax of the rental counter reduces to a twenty-second reservation and a thirty-second return. The status inversion — borrowing as a sign of poverty — flips when the library-of-things in the wealthiest neighborhoods reads as sophistication. _We don't keep inventory we don't need._ The new payoffs of institutional borrowing are three. * _Lightness._ The household carries less. The mental load of inventory shrinks. Anxiety lifts. * _Expertise on tap._ The institution has the right tool for the job, not the all-purpose compromise. * _Configurability._ Today the hammer drill. Tomorrow the impact driver. The right tool for _this_ job, not the average tool for _any_ job. But the deepest argument for borrowed capability is not the math. The math is the _what_. There is a _what for_. For that, we have to step past both owning and institutional borrowing, into something less conventional. The drill in your garage is the _own_ mode. The Library of Things is the _borrow_ mode. There is a third — _pool_ — that a previous letter, The Neighbors, established as the operating layer of plenty. Pooling is not borrowing. Pooling is joint construction of shared abundance no individual could afford alone. Peter Strack documents this mode in the Swiss 2,000-watt neighborhood pilots — communities engineered to bring per-capita energy use to roughly one-fifth of typical American levels. The central mechanism is not technological. It is institutional. The model train room in the building's common space was not an asset the institution loaned out; it was an asset the residents _built together_ , because none of them could have justified the layout at home, and the hobby had no future in their families. The asset did not previously exist. They made it, as a team. The 2,000-watt neighborhood is the rigorous engineered version of patterns the developed world has been operating for a century or more. German _Schrebergärten_ and British garden allotments have been pooling cultivated space since the late 1800s. American food co-ops and credit unions have been pooling groceries and capital for much of the same period. Danish _bofællesskaber_ and the cohousing movement that descends from them have been pooling residential life for more than fifty years. None of these are utopian projections. All have track records, in some cases longer than the lifespans of the institutions that today dominate their respective industries. The mechanism, as we described in _The Neighbors_ , is not ideology, but proximity and shared interest — enabled by design. What the pool mode produces: belonging. The fourth payoff. The neighborhood that pools its capability is also a neighborhood that knows its members. The cross-generational interaction is not designed, but the affordance for it is. It happens because the door was right there, in the building where the boy walked past on his way home from school, and the retired professor said _want to see how this works?_ and the boy said yes. The loneliness that the linear economy leaves to fester in private naturally recedes in public, in the company of people who are making something together. Clayton Christensen taught us that consumers hire products to do jobs — and that the jobs are rooted in feeling more than in optimization. The morning-commute milkshake is hired to make the commute bearable, not because the milkshake is nutritionally optimal. The same logic applies to capability. The customer hires the drill to put a shelf on the wall. The Library of Things delivers that hire efficiently. The community hires the common room where the model train is as a place where the retired engineer's hands stay useful and the boy's hands learn to make something his father couldn't have taught him. That's still a job-to-be-done hire. The institutional form is the difference. * * * ## For the producer If you operate in the household-capability space — if you sell tools, equipment, sporting goods, or any of the categories of object that live in the suburban garage — the analysis above describes the structural opportunity in front of you. The category is ready to disrupt. What follows is the strategic frame. ### Borrowing and the conservation of attractive profits In _The Innovator's Solution_ , Clayton Christensen articulated what he called the _Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits_ : when modularity and commoditization cause attractive profits to disappear at one stage in a value chain, the opportunity to earn attractive profits with proprietary integration almost always emerges at an adjacent stage. Ben Thompson, at Stratechery, has observed the law operating across the central platform disruptions of the last two decades. * AirBnB _commoditized property_ and _integrated trust_. Hotels had kept trust as their proprietary integration, and rooms as the modular commodity; AirBnB inverted both, moved trust to the platform layer, and assumed the hotel's relationship with the customer. * Uber _commoditized cars_ and _integrated dispatch_. Taxi companies had kept dispatch as their proprietary integration, with the medallion system protecting the integration's exclusivity; Uber moved dispatch to the platform layer, commoditized the vehicle, and assumed and elevated the customer relationship. * Netflix _commoditized content production_ and _integrated subscription-and-recommendation_. The studios had kept production as the proprietary integration and distribution as the modular layer; Netflix flipped both, and the customer relationship moved. The Borrowed Capability producer makes the same move. The incumbents in the household-capability space — the big-box retailers, the tool manufacturers, the suburban garage as institution — have kept the _customer relationship_ modular. The transaction is brief: come in, buy the thing, leave. The customer's actual need — the hole in the wall, the workshop full of capability, the place to learn to make things, the friends to make alongside — is left unowned, distributed across YouTube comments and informal maker spaces and the inherited handiness of one's father. The Borrowed Capability producer commoditizes individual tool ownership (the asset becomes modular, sourced from multiple manufacturers, present at the institution rather than in any garage) and integrates _capability itself_ — outcome-delivery, expertise-on-tap, continuity of relationship across years, and (in the pooling mode) the community of practice. The single-word label for the integration vector, in the Thompson pattern, is _capability_ : not the tool, the outcome the tool serves, with the journey from need to mastery wrapped around it. The Library of Things is a specialized CRM company for the household-capability customer. So is the cooperative-pooling-infrastructure provider. The architecture is the most familiar pattern of the last twenty years of business strategy, and it has not yet been deployed at scale in this category. The leap of faith the producer-side reader has to make is not whether the model works — it works the way every other platform disruption has worked. The leap is whether you will build it before the incumbent retailers do. ### Two archetypes, one covenant The **capability-as-utility provider** operates the Library of Things model. The job is to aggregate underutilized capability at neighborhood scale, supply it on low-friction terms, and integrate the customer-adjacent layer: expertise, continuity, recommendation, scheduling, mastery development. The capital structure is a multi-decade asset base requiring institutional maintenance discipline, member-experience design, and inventory rotation. Stahel's performance-economy logic scales down with the right institutional architecture. The **pooling-infrastructure provider** operates cohousing developments, community land trusts, neighborhood-as-service operators, and cooperative housing-and-capability models. The job is to design the physical and social infrastructure that enables proximity and shared interest. The capital structure is more patient still; the social infrastructure matures over decades, and the return is a function of the institution's longevity. Strack's Swiss pilots are the empirical evidence at small scale; the older cohousing and allotment movements are evidence at larger scale; the form is unfamiliar to most American producers because American zoning and capital structure have not historically rewarded it. The two archetypes are complementary, not competitive. The same neighborhood that hosts a Library of Things benefits from cooperative pooling structures around the assets that reward joint construction. The producer that masters one is well-positioned to develop the other. The cultural argument runs across both. Douglas Holt described iconic brands as those that articulate a narrative of rebellion against the central catechism of their moment. The household that opts out of accumulation, that borrows from institutions and pools with neighbors, is already a rebel against the linear economy's central catechism. The producer that gives the rebellion vocabulary, posture, and dignity does iconic-brand work in Holt's strict sense. This is marketing with purpose. It is the cultural work the moment is hiring producers to do. Winston Churchill treated as given the _broad sunlit uplands_ in store for a population that had not yet experienced peace; McCann Erickson, in 1971, put eighteen young adults on a hillside and gave them a song about _what the world needs today_. The function was good business. The brand that articulates the unfamiliar arrival-state earliest and most clearly becomes the cultural infrastructure through which the arrival is recognized when it comes. The covenant the producer enters: capability must be reliably available, well-maintained, low-friction to access, high-status to use, and — for the pooling mode — designed to invite participation rather than substitute for it. The Library of Things that runs out of drills on a Saturday morning loses the rebellion. The cohousing development whose common rooms sit empty because no one bothered to design for the friendships loses the deeper rebellion. The capital structure must align to multi-decade institutional outcomes, not short-cycle returns. Short-cycle capital cannot fund this work. The asset base is built over years and maintained forever. The social infrastructure matures over generations. The producer plays a multi-decade game. The patient brand wins. * * * > Image prompt: Still life of a coral red cordless drill standing upright on its > flat base on a wide citrine yellow countertop in the Library of > Things, three-quarter view slightly above eye level, the citrine > counter surface a matte high-quality material that reads like > classic formica at first glance but reveals modern stone-like > depth on closer inspection, golden hour sunlight angling in from > the upper left through an unseen glass storefront, long warm peach > shadows stretching across the citrine surface, the drill rendered > in stylized graphic flat planes occupying roughly a quarter of > the frame as the clear focal point, a soft hint of pegboard with > neatly hung tools blurred in the muted background wall, a small > Pearl Gray paper return tag resting beside the drill, a small > teal accent container at the edge of frame, the citrine counter > dominating the composition as a warm color field, no human figures, > mid-century advertising illustration style, 1960s World's Fair > poster aesthetic, bold confident graphic design, flat color areas > with clean edges, warm optimistic palette featuring citrine yellow > (#FEC400) and teal (#00B7B0) and coral red (#F14432) accents, > Madison Avenue print advertisement quality, retro-futuristic > consumer optimism, clean sans-serif typography feel, slightly > stylized figures without detailed faces, cheerful domestic scene, > gouache and screenprint texture * * * > _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 11/05/2026
A device fitted to you on your first day of school, that grows with you across a lifetime. What consumer electronics looks like when it lasts.
circudyne.com
The Personal Companion
_This letter is part of the_ Carousel of Plenty_, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the_ Circular Century_. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each essay presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ * * * ### A Friend You Never Have to Say Goodbye To > Now then. Pull up a chair. Sit a minute. I want to tell you about the day my granddaughter started school. > She picked the fabric herself. Blue with delicate flecks of gold. We brought it down to the atelier on Saturday and the artisan fitted the case to her hand — to _her_ hand, not the size on the chart. Hers. He said she'd grow into it but he wanted to be sure it fit her right today, on the first day, when it mattered. > Now folks, this is the part I love. That little device knows her voice already. Knows the way she draws. Knows she likes her stories read slowly and her songs a little silly. > She's gonna have that same Companion when she goes off to college. Same one when she gets her first job. Same one when she's holding her own grandchild, and that grandchild reaches up and the Companion knows that little hand too. > The chassis on my own Companion is a sturdy old thing. The skin's been changed three times. Modules upgraded — well, who can count? Software's never the same software for two months running. But the _thing_ — the thing I carry, the thing that knows me — that's the same thing. It's like an old friend. > A friend you never have to say goodbye to. > That's plenty, friends. * * * ### For the Consumer Do you have a baseball glove? Then you know there is a particular sound a baseball glove makes late in its life. The leather has darkened in the pocket. The lacing has been replaced twice. The webbing carries the scars of a full life. You might say that Rawlings made the glove, but you made it _your_ glove. It's a peculiar partnership, but not complicated. Ask any catcher whose name belongs on their glove and they'll tell you: both of ours. This is the relationship a Companion Device proposes. Not a phone you replace every two years, or a watch you trade in after three. A thing fitted to your hand, your voice, your life, that gets better the more you hold it. We have been told, for as long as most of us have been buying consumer electronics, that this is impossible — that the price of progress is disposability, that you cannot have _both_ the relentlessly improving silicon _and_ the lifelong companion. The linear economy forced us to choose. The chip's lifespan became the object's. When the chip aged out, so did the object. At which time the poor thing went into a drawer, and from the drawer to a landfill, and you went and bought another one, and the relationship that might have grown was canceled before it could begin. Joy is the opportunity cost of that arrangement. The spark of joy is the signal that long-arc utility is being maximized — the sign that an object has earned its place in your life across _enough_ of your life for the bond to mean something. Disposability is not just wasteful. It is the compulsory absence of the conditions under which attachment becomes possible. The linear economy did not merely throw things away. It threw away the _possibility_ of attachment. #### A violin Consider a 250-year-old violin. The luthier who made it is long gone, but the instrument has been played by a dozen virtuosi since. Each performer left something in the wood — the way a particular bow stroke wore a faint groove, the way the body resonated to a particular range of vibrato, the slow chemistry of varnish and air and rosin. When Anne-Sophie Mutter draws the bow across her violin, she is not playing alone. She is playing in collaboration with everyone who played the instrument before her, and with the maker who chose the wood, and with the time that taught the wood to sing. The character that violin has accumulated _is what makes it capable of expression in the first place._ Not despite age. Because of it. This kind of virtue has historically been accessible only to people who could afford instruments worthy of earning it. Stradivarius for the soloist. Patek Philippe for the collector. Hermès for the heir. The rest of us got things on a two-year clock, and our objects never lived long enough to mean anything. The Companion Device is the access-for-all version of that virtue. Not every Companion will become a Stradivarius. But every Companion is the kind of object whose accumulated character is real, legible, and inheritable. It's beyond the realm of a feature: a person's Companion will conform to their life in a way no spec sheet could capture. It forms a substrate of the life it accompanies. #### Pace layers Stewart Brand taught us that complex things are made of layers that move at different speeds. Fashion moves the fastest — experimental, volatile, gone next year. Commerce moves more slowly. Infrastructure slower still. Governance, slower again. Culture over generations. Nature, slowest of all. A healthy system lets each layer keep its own pace without dragging on the others. To understand pace layers is to understand why, despite their miraculousness, consumer electronics objects have become so fraught and joyless. The silicon is fast. The chassis is slow. The relationship is slower still. Linear economics welded them all to the timeline of the shortest-lived components, which meant the slow layers were destroyed every time the fast layer turned over. Imagine throwing away your house every time you replaced a light bulb. The Companion Device is designed to separate the layers again. Software moves continuously. Modules turn over in months. The skin gets refreshed at the atelier every few years. The chassis lasts decades. The patina accumulates across the whole life of the object. The soul — the relationship between the device and you — is the slowest layer of all, and the one that matters most. Because the pace of progress is fast and linear economics demand disposability, we are deprived of the joys of good old things. The best of both worlds is when there is balance between progress _and_ continuity. The new doesn't prevail by default; it has to compete against the tried and true. The Circular Century is the first economic order that lets old and new compete on the merits, and combine delightfully. #### Maintenance is the medium of caring Brand recently wrote that owning a horse means tending the stall, the paddock, the hay, the tack. _A form of caring,_ he called it, _a relationship with another sentience._ The horse can care back. He wondered, in the same chapter, whether something like that might come again someday — a vehicle that cares back. A relationship with another sentience requires work. That sentience is what is capable of caring back. We need to accept the former if we are to enjoy the latter. Brand again: _when you take responsibility for something, you enter into a contract to take care of it. If it's a child, to keep it fed. If it's a knife, to keep it sharp._ The linear economy stripped maintenance out of consumer life and called it liberation. _Don't worry about it; just buy a new one._ What was actually being stripped out was the only loop through which an object could earn its place in your life. The horse could care back because the contract of care made the relationship real. Sever the contract and the horse becomes a unit of transportation. Severed enough times, you forget that vehicles ever cared back at all. The Companion Device cares back. Not necessarily because it's sentient — though it might be, in some defensible sense, by the time the technology matures — but because the _system_ has been redesigned to permit the kind of relationship a horse used to be capable of. You take it to the atelier. You choose the new skin. The technician shows you the wear pattern on the case and asks how it happened. She remembers your last visit. The Companion remembers everything. The relationship is real because the system permits it to be real. #### Aristocratic living without the aristocracy Horace Dediu poses the question in a way that captures the essence of humane progress: _look at what rich people do today, and ask how that gets done for the masses tomorrow._ Rich people don't price-shop flights. They don't decide between driving and Uber. An assistant handles it. Then the phone became the assistant. The pattern of history is consistent: aristocratic privilege graduates into ambient capability. The average person today lives better in most material respects than a king did 200 years ago. The move the Companion Device represents is not that Patek Philippe condescends to the mass market. It is that Apple**'s offering comes to resemble Patek's** — because economic and technological advancement, properly directed, bring durability, service relationship, and provenance within reach for the rest of us. Today's level of progress might let us live like aristocrats _without living under the reductive geometry of the aristocracy._ That is an open possibility, and a continuing trend. The aristocrat's freedom required a constrained class beneath him; the Companion Device's owner is free without constraining anyone. The broad answer to Dediu's question transcends luxury. The aspiration ought to include the absence of financial fear for the future, and the presence of available alternative pursuits for everyone. Modern abundance as we have defined it (Distributed Power, Ambient Intelligence, and Recombinant Matter) severs the relationship between the scarce and the aspirational. The linear economy taught us a false dichotomy. Everything good-and-accessible was new and disposable (the iPhone). Everything good-and-aspirational was old and long-lived (the Patek). That split is not a law of nature. It is the visible signature of a single economic regime nearing its end. The linear economy is finishing where it had to finish — wasteful and enshittified. Its successor, if this generation meets its moment, collapses the dichotomy. #### The third element of Systemic Beauty A first swing has been taken. The approach Fairphone has taken is directionally correct: a phone designed to be repaired, with parts you can replace yourself. Honor where honor is due. But Fairphone employs modularity the way Dell does — user-upgradable, and little else. That misses two of the three elements of Systemic Beauty: Compositional Logic — a unified design grammar across the parts, so the object reads as one thing even as the parts age at different rates. Instructional Design — the composability is self-evident; the system teaches you how to use it without manuals or specialists. LEGO is the canonical case. Modular, yes — but beautiful because the modularity is governed by a unified compositional logic, with instructional design baked into the bricks themselves. IKEA, at its best, achieves the same combination. The Companion Device adds a third element to Systemic Beauty that LEGO and IKEA haven't quite reached: **timelessness.** Old elements that provide continuity. New elements that enhance capability. Combined and synergized in a single object that does not date. If we find the combination improbable, or vaguely alarming, it is only because we have lived exclusively under a linear-economy regime. Product design, business design, strategy, and ultimately politics will all be liberated by moving onto what comes next. That is the consumer's experience. Now we have to look at how the producer makes it possible. * * * ### By the Producer The Companion Device rests on a single strategic claim that turns the consumer-electronics business model inside out. **The chassis is not the product. The relationship is the product. The chassis is just where the relationship lives.** Every traditional consumer-electronics firm sells the chassis. The annual keynote. A new model. The same unit-sales economics. Customer-relationship management is something that _supports_ the unit sale. The Companion Device firm reverses the polarity: every unit sale is a moment that supports the relationship. The chassis is durable infrastructure. The relationship is what the firm actually sells. #### Pace-layered architecture Borrowing Brand's frame and applying it to the object: Layer | Pace | Authored by ---|---|--- Soul | A lifetime | The owner Patina | Years | Time + use Skin | Years | The atelier Modules | Months | The manufacturer Software | Continuous | The manufacturer Chassis | Decades | The manufacturer The chassis is slow. The silicon inside it is fast. The object survives the upgrades because the upgrades aren't the object. This solves the apparent paradox we keep being told is unsolvable: the device is _both_ relentlessly improving technology _and_ the lifelong companion. They live on different layers. Like the ship of Theseus. The same architecture has existed for decades for capital products. The table above just as well describes a long-lived airliner: chassis is the airframe; modules are engines, avionics, interiors; software is fleet-wide updates; skin is livery; patina is hours flown, the airworthiness directives serviced over decades, the registry the airframe carries; soul is the operator's brand, the routes flown, the passengers whose lives it has crossed. The Companion Device is what happens when this familiar capital-product discipline is brought to a consumer product whose previous form was a two-year disposable. **The discipline already exists for the things that _had_ to last; the Circular Century extends it to the things that _should_ last.** #### Strategy Choice Cascade Winning Aspiration**.** Be the maker of the artifact that can accompany your customer for their entire life. Where to Play**.** The thresholds. First day of school. First job. The wedding. The new child. The Companion enters life at thresholds, because thresholds are when people are most ready to commit to a long relationship. How to Win**.** A chassis built to last. A module ecosystem that upgrades it at the appropriate pace. An atelier network (the Atelier) that personalizes it. A return logistics layer (the Robot Milkman) that closes every loop. Software that learns the owner across a lifetime. Must-Have Capabilities**.** All three elements of Systemic Beauty designed in from day one: * **Compositional Logic** — a unified design grammar across chassis, modules, software, and skin, so every layer reads as part of one object even as the layers age at different rates. * **Instructional Design** — the composability is self-evident; the device teaches its owner how it can grow with them, without manuals or specialists. * **Timelessness** — old elements that provide continuity, new elements that enhance capability, combined and synergized in a single object that does not date. The system layers underneath: Recombinant Matter at modules. Ambient Intelligence at software. The Robot Milkman for logistics. The Atelier for Skin. Enabling Management Systems**.** Churn becomes a failure mode, not a KPI to manage. Years-of-relationship becomes the leading indicator. The chassis appreciates as long as the relationship continues. The accountant finally has to learn what the watchmaker has known for two centuries: a thing that lasts is worth more, not less, every year you keep it. For the model to work, all of the following must be true at the same time: The manufacturer has to stop fearing retention as a constraint on new sales and treat it as the only thing the firm is actually selling. Customer relationship is not a sales event. It is the entire enterprise. The atelier evolves with the owner. Hot-rod-shop and tattoo-parlor at twenty. _Haute_ materials and quieter modifications at forty. The same chassis underneath. The same relationship deepening. #### Why we call this season the _Carousel of Plenty_ This is the right essay to step out of the frame and tell you why we named the season what we did. There are two carousels that remind us of what the Circular Century resolves. **Carousel one** is GE's Carousel of Progress — the 1964 World's Fair pavilion where a family man advocated for his household's experience of progress, scene by scene, decade by decade. The Madison Avenue voice that the Pitch sections of these letters borrow. _Now then, friends, pull up a chair._ Progress as something the family lives through and is bettered by. The forward pull. **Carousel two** is Don Draper's pitch in the _Mad Men_ episode "The Wheel," written by Matthew Weiner. Draper, pitching a brand identity for the Kodak slide projector, walks through old family photographs and reframes the device. Technology, he tells the room, is a glittering lure — but on rare occasions a product earns a sentimental bond with its user. He cites the Greek root of _nostalgia_ : the pain from an old wound. The slide projector, in his telling, is not a spaceship; it is a time machine. It travels round and back, the way a child travels, to a place where we know we are loved. The two carousels point at the same dynamic: humans are pulled by both the new _and_ the old. The linear economy could only sell us the new — by definition, because it had to dispose of the old to repeat the sale. The result was a culture starved of the second pull, with the first pull turned up to manic. The Circular Century restores the second pull. The Companion Device is the artifact through which the restoration is most visibly felt. This is the source of marketing power that lies dormant in business models that make products designed for discard. Nostalgia, as Draper's pitch names it, is the emotional substrate the linear economy systematically prevented its products from earning. Circular business models don't merely permit nostalgic bond — they _generate_ it, as a structural by-product of the relationship lasting long enough to produce it. That is a marketing capacity unavailable to incumbents whose business model precludes the relationship from getting "old enough to ache for." The Circular Century is the era in which we get to have both pulls at once. It provides a vocabulary and coherent forward-looking mythology in which progress and nostalgia are no longer at war. That is the brand promise. The Companion Device is the artifact that delivers it. * * * > Image prompt: A mid-century illustration in the style of a 1964 World's Fair pavilion poster. Simple still life. Composition: a worn wooden surface in warm late-afternoon light — a kitchen table at home. On the surface, two objects beside each other: a Companion Device and a well-loved baseball glove. The Companion Device is a folio-format personal device in the spirit of Apple's 1987 Knowledge Navigator — closed, lying flat, tablet-sized (roughly the proportions of a small leather-bound agenda), with a hinged spine. Its outer surface is bound in the manner of Hermès leatherwork: deep saddle-stitched leather in a rich blue-black, contrast-thread stitching along the edges, small reinforced corner pieces in burnished brass, a discreet stamped maker's mark near the spine. The leather shows years of careful use — gentle patina along the spine and the edge where the hand grips, a slightly darker tone where the thumb rests, the corners softened from being picked up countless times. No visible screen; the device is closed and at rest. Beside it, the baseball glove: leather darkened in the pocket, lacing replaced, webbing showing the scars of many seasons. The two objects sit in companionable relation, slightly overlapping or near each other, as if both belong to the same person and have been set down together — kindred objects, kindred patinas. Camera angle slightly elevated, looking gently down. Limited mid-century palette: warm citrine yellow in the light, deep sky blue, soft teal in the shadow, terracotta accents, cream. Gouache and screenprint texture, confident color blocks, no photorealism. Optimistic, civic, Carousel of Progress register. * * * _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 04/05/2026
The household has been at the far end of a long fragile string for a century. Energy sovereignty is the move out. Solarpunk 2.0, and the triad that builds it.
circudyne.com
Energy Sovereignty
_This letter is part of the**Carousel of Plenty** , a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the _Circular Century_. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each essay presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ * * * ### Yours to Make. Yours to Share. > Now, pull up a chair. Sit a minute. Let me tell you something Grandpa would not believe. > He used to talk about the feeling he'd get when the utility bill came in. He'd ask Grandma to nudge the air conditioning down. Take a quick cold shower instead of a long warm one. Help him through the summer. He'd open that envelope standing up. > Our bill came in last Friday. Forty-two dollars. In August! In Springfield! Mother set it down on the counter the way you'd set down a grocery receipt. > Now, here's the part I really like. Some weekends, the meter runs the other way. I tell the kids and they gawk like I'm doing a magic trick. They lean over to watch the little numbers turn — and the little numbers go backwards. > I'll tell you what it is. We make some of the power, you see. We share some of the power. And on a sunny weekend, we sell some of it. The roof is doing it. The trellis over Mother's tomatoes is doing it — the same trellis that shades the vines from the worst of the afternoon sun. Down at the corner, a little outfit knits us all together with the company — they handle the rest. > You know what Mother said about it the other day? She said it's like the tomatoes she grows out back. Some folks buy tomatoes at the store. Mother grows them in dirt that belongs to us. They taste better. They cost nothing. That's what the electricity is now. Out of the sky and into the lamp. Satisfying and free. > Grandpa would not have believed it. The sun scared him every August. Now it runs our porch fan while Mother brings in the tomatoes. > A new kind of freedom, friends. > A new kind of plenty. * * * ### For the Consumer The bill that came on Friday is not the only thing that has changed. The relationship geometry has. For most of the twentieth century, the household stood at the far end of a very long string. At the other end were fuels, mines, ports, pipelines, and large machines burning what those mines and ports delivered. Anything that happened along the string showed up at the far end. A tanker rerouted; the bill went up. A storm knocked down a transformer fifteen miles away; your refrigerator went warm. The household was the last node on a long, fragile filament, most of it somebody else's concern. The fragility of that arrangement is what Grandpa was sensing when he opened the envelope standing up. Last week's letter explained how Stewart Brand observed that buildings are made of "shearing layers" that move at different speeds. He extended the same observation to civilization itself: _pace layers._ Fashion moves the fastest — experimental, volatile. Commerce moves more slowly. Infrastructure — roads, networks, the grid — moves more slowly still, constrained by cost and complexity. Governance is slower again. Culture moves over generations. Nature is the slowest of all. A healthy civilization lets each layer keep its own pace without interfering with the others. Energy is unusual in that it touches every one of those layers at once. Nature makes the resource. Governance makes the rules about it. Infrastructure delivers it. Commerce sells it. When the layers move in concert, the bill is just a bill. When the layers fall out of phase, the bill becomes a window onto a system in trouble. That is the system Grandpa was reading. Nature was breaking down faster than the rest of the system could absorb. Governance was chaotic. Infrastructure was aging out. Commerce kept selling a dying dream. The friction between the layers reached the household as a rising bill and a brittle line. Bill McKibben has written about what happens when energy stops being a resource you ship and becomes a flow you receive. The sun and the wind, he points out, are diffuse and everywhere. They are difficult to hoard. They are difficult to fight wars over. He is describing a deep reordering of the planet's power systems — power in both senses of the word. The household scale of that reordering is what Grandpa would not have believed. The geopolitical anxieties that used to get into his utility bill cannot get into ours, because there is no string for them to travel down. Bill Nussey has the cleanest way of putting the underlying shift. _Solar, wind, and batteries are technologies, not fuels._ That single sentence reframes the entire household conversation. A fuel obeys the _resource_ curve — finite, fought over, priced by scarcity. A technology obeys the _learning_ curve — abundant, improving, priced by manufacturing volume. A household with a furnace is buying fuel forever. A household with panels and a battery has bought a piece of the learning curve and gets to keep riding it for decades. The roof and the solar trellis are not generators in the old sense; they are durable goods that produce a service. 📈 A fuel obeys the __resource__ curve — finite, fought over, priced by scarcity. A technology obeys the __learning__ curve — abundant, improving, priced by manufacturing volume. Energy sovereignty is power at the speed of art, or at least, of a harvest. Power generation moves to the rooftop and the solar trellis. Storage moves to the wall. The neighborhood block becomes the buffer. The household loosens the string that runs through the world's troubles. Earlier this year we wrote about the punk's discipline of ordering one's own corner — making the small things in your own life right when the larger world refuses to be made right. Are You a Punk? was about the moral posture. Energy Sovereignty is the same posture rendered in watt-hours. The household that generates and stores and shares its power opposes chaos the same way: tending the small zone of order that is actually under one's own care. Solar panels turn out to be a moral instrument and not just an electrical one. ☀️ Solar panels turn out to be a moral instrument and not just an electrical one. In 1997, Apple's _Think Different_ campaign placed Gandhi-at-the-spinning-wheel in a pantheon with Einstein, Picasso, and Martin Luther King. The image was carefully chosen. The spinning wheel was not a symbol of nostalgia, but an instrument of nonviolent resistance — the sovereignty of a household and a village over the production of its own fabric, with everything that implied for the empire that depended on selling cloth back. With _Think Different_ , Apple gave a name to a lineage of tools for noble rebels. Energy Sovereignty belongs in that lineage. The solar trellis on the back of the house is the same gesture the spinning wheel was, applied to a different essential of daily life. "Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels." Two engines drive this kind of change, and both are running. Douglas Holt has shown that powerful brands win their place by speaking to the gap between the official story of a culture and its lived experience. Friction between pace layers can widen that gap. The official story of the legacy utility was reliable, modern, civic infrastructure. The lived experience was expensive, brittle, and hostile to participation. That gap is exactly the territory a narrative of rebellion fills. Clayton Christensen has shown that disruption arrives from below — worse on the metrics incumbents care about, better on the metrics incumbents ignore (but a new movement of customers value). Behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage was, for decades, worse on capacity factor and unit cost. It was better on resilience, predictability, and sovereignty. Both engines were turning quietly for two decades. Their historical moment has arrived. What they are turning into has a name. _Solarpunk 2.0_ is an evolution. It is a working system with a household-scale entry point, powered by the sun. Mother grows the tomatoes. The solar trellis throws the shade and catches the photons. The block keeps the lights on through a storm. The bill is small. The dread is gone. That is the consumer's experience. Now we have to look at how the producer makes it possible. * * * ### By the Producer The household experience above rests on three producers, not one. Treat them as a stack: 1. **Household-scale hardware** — the rooftop array, the solar trellis, the storage in the wall, the smart panel. Behind-the-meter where regulations are sticky; standard interconnect where they are not. This is what the resident sees and touches. 2. **Block-scale microgrid operator** — the long-term steward. Aggregates a row of households into a coherent prosumer at block density. Carries the diplomatic burden across utilities, regulators, and residents across decades. Otis-shaped: an institution that stays in the relationship after the equipment is installed. 3. VPP**coordination platform** — the Ambient Intelligence layer that turns aggregated households into a market participant the utility can transact with. None of the three works at scale without the other two. Together they make virtual power plants profitable, performant, and robust. The triad's posture toward the legacy utility is complementary, not adversarial: it reduces substation costs, smooths demand, supplies generation closer to load, and shortens the interconnection queue. Conservation becomes an option for the resident, not an obligation. The utility that recruits the triad as a partner is doing better business than the utility that fights it. The role most underdeveloped of these so far is the operator: Winning Aspiration**.** Become the long-term steward of the block's energy citizenship. Turn a row of houses into a coherent prosumer. Stay diplomatic across decades. Where to Play**.** Geographies where regulation permits behind-the-meter prosuming today and where utility partners are receptive to demand-smoothing and alternative supply. Block density first; mini-grid scale second; community-microgrid scale third. How to Win**.** Bring composable household-scale hardware to the resident as a turnkey service. Operate the block-scale aggregation. Hold the VPP relationship with the utility. Promote the partnership to the utility as a substrate that helps it solve real problems — substation upgrades, peakers, queue pressure — rather than fight prosumers about them. Must-Have Capabilities**.** Hardware partnerships at the household level. VPP coordination software, built or partnered. A service network for cell refresh, pack swap, and panel maintenance across decades. Diplomatic capability — what From Managers to Diplomats called the statecraft layer. A capital structure aligned to multi-decade obligation, in the Vendor Dependency covenant frame. Enabling Management Systems**.** An engineering culture that designs for upgrade paths over decades. A regulatory affairs function that thinks like a foreign ministry. Customer relationships that survive the resident moving away — the asset stays with the address, in covenant with the next resident. A capital plan that _is_ the strategic plan. For the triad to scale, all of the following must be true at the same time. **All Dynamos of the Circular Century operating:** * Distributed Power as the topology, with renewables as the source. * Ambient Intelligence routable across the stack. * Recombinant Matter at the cell, pack, and chassis level — designed in from day one, so the equipment refreshes rather than landfills. **Behind-the-meter prosuming legal and economically attractive enough to bootstrap participation.** The interconnection queue gets fixed eventually. The triad cannot wait for it. Plug-in and behind-the-meter forms are the wedge that lets the market move while the queue heals. **Utilities recruited as partners, not opponents.** Some will lead. Some will be dragged. The triad's argument is _we make your job easier, your peakers cheaper, your queue shorter, your generation cleaner, and your customer relationships better_. The utilities that hear this will have multi-decade advantages over those that resist. **Capital in the right shape.** Patient strategic capital, infrastructure-grade debt, prepaid service contracts, long-tail revenue. Not VC. Get this wrong and the stack collapses into another rooftop-solar-loan-bankruptcy. **A cultural mythology widespread enough that prosuming reads as citizenship.** Solarpunk 2.0 is the multiplier. Without it, the operator faces a market of one-at-a-time hardware purchases. With it, the operator faces a market of communities asking to be served. Pull any of these out and the triad fails. Which is why this is genuinely circular-only — not retrofitted utility, not solar-as-trim. The triad is the next company structure capitalism is poised to ship at scale. An evolution: better design, better capabilities, better performance. In an earlier letter, Why Self-Disrupt?, we called this a different species of enterprise — built on an improved organizational architecture. The energy case shows what one looks like in practice. * * * Image prompt: A mid-century illustration in the style of a 1964 World's Fair pavilion poster. Composition: the upper portion of the frame holds a low late-afternoon sun in a saturated golden sky, descending into clear blue toward the horizon. The lower portion holds a single modest suburban home with a pitched roof of integrated solar panels and, in the back yard, a wooden pergola roofed with semi-transparent solar panels shading neat rows of tomato plants below. A slim white battery cabinet sits beside the house. No people in frame. Camera angle is slightly elevated, looking gently down on the property. Late summer, warm golden hour light. Limited mid-century palette: warm citrine yellow, deep sky blue, terracotta, soft greens, cream. Gouache and screenprint texture, confident color blocks, no photorealism. Optimistic, civic, Carousel of Progress register. * * * _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 27/04/2026
How it feels to live in a home that gets better with time, and what it takes to make one. Why the dwelling is the test case for better living with circularity.
circudyne.com
The Living Home
_This letter is part of the_ Carousel of Plenty_, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the_ Circular Century_. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each essay presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ * * * ## Made to Last. Made to Grow. > Now, sit down a minute. Let me show you something. > You see that cooktop? Twelve years we've had that thing. _Twelve._ Mother was making Sunday stews on it back when the kids brought home works of art in the medium of finger paint. Now they're doing homework on the laptop, and that same cooktop is humming along like the day it was delivered. Actually, it's better than it was then, if you ask me. They came out and refreshed the parts inside last spring — made it smarter — and now it cooks Mother's stew better than ever. (Don't tell her I said that.) > When the kids were little, we lived in the bungalow over on Maple. Now we're here, with the porch and the room for the dog. You know what came with us? The kitchen. The whole thing, near enough. Cabinets came apart like a puzzle and went right back together in the new house. Same cabinets. Same kitchen. New chapter. > The thermostat learned the children's school bus schedule — runs the floor warm before they're out of bed. The heat pump out back called the company before it gave out; the part showed up two days ahead of the trouble. The dishwasher is on its second motor. It's still on its first relationship with this family. It's seen every Thanksgiving since our old dog was a puppy. > This is how it feels to live in _a home that gets better_. > Not because we're better at fighting the chaos. Better because the home was _made_ for the long run — built to be fixed when it needs fixing, built to grow when we need it to grow. The clever bits inside, the ones folks used to tell you were too complicated to repair? They open right up. Send a part back, get a new one in the mail. Easiest thing in the world. > Now — we used to call this rich-people stuff. The architect who came back every five years. The carpenter who knew the family. Houses made for people, over time, that got more _themselves_ with every season. The kind of life that used to require an inheritance. > Well, friends, it doesn't anymore. > We love this house. And you know what? > It feels like it loves us back. * * * ## For the Consumer What changed in that kitchen is not the appliances. It is the home's posture toward the people living in it. The Living Home works subtly on your behalf. It actively engages you as a partner in the act of maintenance. It manages itself, with the makers it is in covenant with. The heat pump does not page you when it fails. The heat pump tells the manufacturer it is going to fail, and the manufacturer dispatches the part. You learn about it when the technician schedules their visit. There is an old Disneyland principle behind this. John Hench used to say that a guest's pleasure depended on never being asked to absorb a contradiction. In the linear-economy home, every appliance leaves a contradiction in your hands: the maker gets paid to sell, not serve. In the Living Home, the contradictions resolve before they reach you. The home is reassuring the way a good park is reassuring. Every detail has a partner. That is one register. Here is another. Stewart Brand identified six layers in a building — Site, Structure, Skin, Services, Space plan, Stuff. The work of the home, he said, is to let those layers move at their own different paces without tearing each other apart. There is a seventh layer he considered for the list: the Soul. The resident. The reason any of the building exists. In a linear-economy home, the _Soul_ is servant to the _Stuff_. Each thing was sold to live alone — designed for itself, not for the rest of the house, and not for the rest of the resident's life. As the years pass, the makers move on. The resident is the only party left in the relationship. > 📦 In a linear-economy home, the Soul is servant to the Stuff. Brand once described the kind of relationship a person can have with a horse — that you take care of a horse and, over time, the horse takes care of you back. The reciprocity is what makes a horse a horse and not a machine. Most of what we live with does not care back. The Living Home is the proposition that some of it can. Hench's home protects you. Brand's home engages with you. The Living Home does both. The linear-economy home does neither. Christopher Alexander wrote books about how houses ought to grow with the people in them. Each pattern was small — a window seat, a sunny corner, a defensible private place — but they built up to a humane architecture, a dwelling that became more _itself_ the longer you lived in it. He thought everybody deserved this. He also thought it was effectively unavailable to anybody who could not afford to keep an architect on retainer. Composability shifts that budget line for the better. If the parts of the home are swappable — if the cabinet's joints are standardized, if the cooktop's parts can be ordered in the mail, if the thermostat speaks to the heat pump in a protocol that did not exist when the heat pump was built — then the _adaptation_ gets cheap. A translator layer between the old part and the new part keeps the home working while you change one piece at a time. Brand's pace layers stop tearing at each other. This is the principle Enzo Mari was after with _Autoprogettazione_ — boards, nails, a manual, a chair anyone could build. It is the principle Adam Savage demonstrates every time he takes apart a flashlight on camera. That is composability outside of commerce. Circularity brings composability inside of commerce. The Living Home is the result: every season the home gets a little more suited to your life. More _yours_. Live in a home like this for a few years and a after a while it teaches you some of the benefits of living in the circular economy. **It appreciates rather than depreciates.** Every refresh of the parts, every firmware update, every chassis swap is an addition. You are accumulating the home with your life rather than maintaining it against entropy. **It composes well.** Standardized interfaces, swappable parts, addressable components. The dishwasher gets a new motor without losing its history. The thermostat gets a new face without losing the children's birthdays. **The maker stays in the relationship.** The producer is paid to keep you flourishing across decades, not to sell you a replacement. Durability is a property of the relationship as much as a property of the object. **Calm permanence settles in.** The kitchen is settled. The heat pump is settled. The thermostat is settled. The low-grade dread about which subscription auto-renews and which firmware is about to lapse — gone. **Time stops being a threat.** The cooktop is older today than last winter and still good. The cabinet is older today than last winter and still good. The years are something the home accumulates with you. The dwelling that gets better with care used to require an architect, an inheritance, and a team of people whose names you knew. The privilege was not the granite countertops. The privilege was the _posture_ — a house tended to by people who would still be there next year. The Living Home is that privilege made accessible. Care, over time, from people you trust — now available across the whole market. It is the upper-pyramid product category. The first to ship at scale. * * * ## By the Producer _This section uses_ Roger Martin_'s_ Strategy Choice Cascade_—_ Winning Aspiration_,_ Where to Play_,_ How to Win_,_ Must-Have Capabilities_,_ Enabling Management Systems_— followed by the "_ What Would Have to Be True_" (WWHTBT) test that reveals why this solution can only exist in a circular economy._ The Living Home is the first appliance category in which the **Three Dynamos of the Circular Century** all run at once. The Three Dynamos are the enabling catalysts of the Circular Century — the technological forces that turn circularity from an aspiration into a working business model. They are: * **Distributed Power** — energy generated close to where it is used, owned by the people who use it. * **Ambient Intelligence** — software and sensing that let every object in the home listen, learn, and coordinate with every other object across its life. * **Recombinant Matter** — materials and components designed from the start to be refreshed, reassembled, and returned upstream. Each Dynamo has been advancing on its own track for some time now. The Living Home is what happens when those tracks finally cross at the consumer level — and the producer who can run all three Dynamos inside a single category is the one positioned to deliver this convergence to the household. The producer archetype is the appliance-as-platform company. It vertically integrates battery cells, inverters, power electronics, embedded compute, and grid services. It markets the appliance to the consumer; it licenses the platform to OEMs through Powered-by-Platform programs. Impulse Labs is the legible vanguard. Founder Sam D'Amico's _Impulse was never a stove company_ is the spine of the strategy. The stove was the wedge. The platform is the play. The virtual power plant (VPP) is the disruption from below. Let's run the appliance-as-platform company through Martin's Strategy Choice Cascade. **Winning Aspiration.** Become an operating layer of the Living Home — the company whose products run all three Dynamos inside the appliance and earn a multi-decade revenue relationship with every unit the platform powers. **Where to Play.** High-friction, established appliance markets where iteration cycles are long, regulatory bars are real, and incumbents are slow. Cooking first; the wedge is sharpest where the panel constraint hurts most. Heating, cooling, water, drying, EV charging next. North America first. Geographies with grid stress and policy support second. **How to Win.** Synthesize the Local Buffer as a productized layer. Bypass the Services-layer constraint at the home — no panel upgrade required, the buffer lives inside the appliance. Become the certified, default-installed energy storage in every electrified appliance category. License the architecture to OEMs through a Powered-by-Platform program so the platform reaches beyond the company's own developing retail channel. **Must-Have Capabilities.** Cell sourcing and pack engineering. Power electronics. Embedded firmware on a multi-decade upgrade horizon. Grid-services partnerships and VPP enrollment. A service network for cell refresh and pack swap. Design for disassembly. Material passport. Multi-decade financial modeling. The capability list reads more like a utility's than a consumer-electronics company's, which is the point. **Enabling Management Systems.** Capital structure aligned to multi-decade obligation rather than the VC exit horizon. Engineering culture that designs for swap-and-refresh from day one. A customer-service organization closer to Otis than to Whirlpool. A diplomatic posture toward OEM partners, regulators, and utilities — closer to statecraft than to sales. Now run the WWHTBT test. For the appliance-as-platform model to succeed, four conditions must be true simultaneously. **1. All three Dynamos operating.** Distributed Power topology supported by grid and home. Ambient Intelligence routable into the appliance. Recombinant Matter at cell, pack, and chassis. Designed in from day one. Retrofitted later does not work. **2. A buyer posture that is not TCO.** Consumers do not run Total Cost of Ownership analyses. They evaluate something else. The producer's value proposition is Lifetime Joy — the promise that the appliance will be a source of pleasure across decades rather than a depreciating obligation. The producer's success condition is **Total Joy of Ownership (TJO)** — the cumulative satisfaction the asset generates across its life, measured by the producer rather than the customer. The buyer chooses the appliance because she wants the relationship. The spreadsheet does not enter into it. This is the most fragile assumption in the model and the most important. Without it, the appliance is just a more expensive stove. **3. Translator-layer infrastructure available.** The Local Buffer must be productizable. Cells must be cycle-able. Packs must be swappable. Firmware must update across decades. Standards must let the home speak to the grid. Some of this is endogenous to the company. Most of it is not. **4. Capital structure that pays the maker to stay.** Not VC. Patient strategic capital, infrastructure-grade debt, customer prepayment, long-tail service revenue. Different in shape from any structure currently funding consumer hardware at scale. The capital is the thing that decides whether the relationship is a covenant or a sales transaction. Get this wrong and the whole stack collapses into another Fisker. All four must be true at once. Remove any one of them and the model fails. Remove two and the model never gets started. Which is why this is genuinely circularity-only economics — not retrofitted sustainability, not linear-with-trim. The Living Home is the appliance category the industrial economy has not previously been able to deliver, because the company that ships it has to be a new kind of company — transformed to thrive in the Circular Century. * * * > Image prompt: A vintage mid-century advertising illustration in the > manner of a 1960s World's Fair poster, gouache and > screenprint texture, flat color areas with clean edges, > warm optimistic palette of citrine yellow dominant with > sage green, soft terracotta, and sparing teal accents, > retro-futuristic consumer optimism — depicting a quiet > sun-filled corner of a family home interior at late > morning, no figures. In the foreground a wooden workbench > against a cream wall, a small desktop 3D printer in > citrine yellow extruding a clearly modular geometric > component, a few finished modular parts on the bench. > Soft daylight. The open plan extends into the soft middle > distance: a glimpse of a kitchen with modular wood-toned > cabinetry and a single citrine yellow accent panel * * * > _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 20/04/2026
What happens when a block generates its own power, grows its own lunch, and tends its own things? The neighborhood becomes the operating layer of plenty.
circudyne.com
The Neighbors
_This letter is part of the_ Carousel of Plenty_, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the_ Circular Century_. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each essay presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ * * * ## A Neighborhood That Works! > Come on home to Willow — or Pine, or Jefferson, or whatever your block is called — and meet the neighbors! They grow your tomatoes right out front, under panels that catch the sun twice over. They keep your jacket in stitch and your kitchen chairs in finish. They know your name, and you know theirs. The Robot Milkman makes its rounds at dawn. The workshop door is open by eight. The commissary has this morning's pick ready when you walk by. > This is living, neighbor! The block generates its own power, grows its own lunch, tends its own things, and has time left over for a wave from the garden. The folks next door aren't strangers who happen to park near you. They're the people who repair your chair, share your drill, pour your coffee, and ask after your mother. > It's the neighborhood you were always promised. Now, it's yours. ## For the Consumer You walk out the door on a bright morning and the solar panels are up over the beds. Tomatoes below, electrons above. The block's shared garden is also its power plant, and neither crowds the other. The meter runs backward on the houses with enough and forward on the ones that need a little, and the surplus only leaves the block when the block has a surplus to spare. The grid used to be something that came to the neighborhood. The neighborhood is the grid now, and the old grid is just where the extra goes. From the sidewalk, subtle small differences are apparent. The atelier door is open. The Robot Milkman skitters up the street. Someone is picking a cucumber under a photovoltaic canopy. The commissary has already updated its produce list for the day. It's only moderately futuristic. It just looks like a street. The difference lies in how it works. The people around you are assets, not strangers. The cobbler three doors down keeps your boots in better shape than they came in. The artisan at the atelier knows your jacket's history. The grower under the panels remembers which tomatoes you liked last August. The circular business model pays them to stay, maintain, and deepen their relationships with each other rather than sell and move on. They're still here next year because staying is what profits them. The connective tissue is an intelligent directory — think of it as a Yellow Pages that pays attention. It notices when the tool library is out of the bit you need and tells the operator to reorder. It knows the commissary's produce rhythm and the atelier's backlog. It doesn't introduce you to your neighbors. It just puts you in the same place doing complementary things at overlapping times, and the rest takes care of itself. The mechanism works by proximity and shared interest, enabled by design. Opt in to as much or as little as you like. You can share surplus power with the block or keep it for your own battery. You can list your drill in the tool library or keep it in the garage. You can let the atelier know your preferences or drop things off like anyone else. The neighbor who opts all the way out still gets Milkman service, still walks through the commissary, and is still welcome at the atelier. The infrastructure is permissive, not coercive. What you join, you join one layer at a time. The only tragedy to be found in this commons is the local theater's production of _Romeo and Juliet_. ## By the Producer Three structural shifts made all of this possible, and none of them came from the neighborhood itself. They came from the pillars underneath it. **Power** used to require concentration — coal plants, transmission lines, a grid that flowed one way. **Distributed renewables** broke that physics. A virtual power plant coordinates what the block generates, stores, and consumes, and it scales organically as more neighbors add solar, storage, or heat pumps. The panels over the beds aren't just shading tomatoes. They're the visible sign of the neighborhood's thriving independence. **Information** used to be scarce, and hierarchies allocated it — broadcast networks, corporate chains of command, Madison Avenue telling you what to want. Today, information is everywhere, and abundance has produced its own pathology. You knew more about celebrities than about the person next door. **Ambient intelligence** fixes this by scoping information to the relevant geography. Local detail replaces global noise. This is the nervous system the resident experiences as the attentive Yellow Pages. **Production** used to require a factory floor — massive capital, industrial volumes, and whatever materials could be produced on budget at that scale. **Post-industrial technologies** broke the requirement. Regenerative materials cycle through the atelier, the commissary, and the Robot Milkman's bi-directional route. Additive manufacturing puts a production capability in a neighborhood workshop that used to require an overseas factory. The local Lexus factory in _Minority Report_ was a plausible extrapolation of this idea. Together these shift the economics so that local production is viable at scales that used to require centralization, and the margin comes from durability and stewardship rather than global reach. Durability is something a local artisan can deliver. 📈 ...local production is viable at scales that used to require centralization, and the margin comes from durability and stewardship rather than global reach. These shifts restore something the linear economy collapsed: a full range of relationship intimacy, graded honestly by what each tier does well. Up close, local providers compete on memory and presence — the cobbler who knows your boots, the grower who remembers your tomatoes. Their product is the relationship itself. At mid-range, a liminal tier the twentieth century mostly erased comes back: the regional mill, the remanufacturer forty miles out, the farmer's co-op. You may never meet them, but they have names and accountability one tier up from the household. They serve neighborhoods rather than individuals. And at global scale, there are the producers who genuinely require it — the feedstock plant, the chip fab, the tractor company. The service is correct because it's impersonal. What makes this tier structure strategic rather than sentimental is that each tier's behavior is now conditioned by the one below it. Consider John Deere. In the linear economy, the tractor is designed for commodity agriculture — the farmer is a node in an anonymous pipeline, and horsepower and lock-in are the specs that matter. In the Circular Century, the farmer at the edge of your neighborhood supplies a commissary whose customers know her name. She cultivates relationships as well as food, because both are margin. What she needs from Deere changes. Serviceable. Modular. Right-sized. Remanufacturable on a regional service model. Deere's strategy follows the demand signal upstream. The global tier ends up doing work that is shaped by the local outcome. One Winning Aspiration, then, is to become the operating layer that makes all three tiers legible and economically viable at neighborhood scale. Where to Play is the gap between global brands, which are too distant to know you, and individual households, which are too isolated to provide for themselves. How to Win is network density within a walkable radius: every service makes every other more valuable, and every additional participant thickens the virtual power plant, the tool library, and the commissary at the same time. What would have to be true for any of this to work? Distributed power, ambient intelligence, and post-industrial production — all three at once — plus a demand signal from the neighborhood strong enough to pull the upstream tiers. Remove the renewables and the block is back on the old grid's economics. Remove the ambient intelligence and the services don't cohere without a manager. Remove the regenerative materials and local providers can't compete with global supply on anything but sentiment. And remove the demand pull, and John Deere goes right back to locking in commodity tractors to commodity farms. The mid-century dream was wholesome in what it wanted: convenience, abundance, a neighborhood worth coming home to. It couldn't keep its promise because the enabling technologies hadn't arrived and the economic thinking hadn't caught up. Distributed power, ambient intelligence, and post-industrial production are here now. Circular business models are finally unlocked. The Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow wasn't wrong. It was early. * * * > Image prompt: A warm neighborhood street at midday seen from street level perspective, three or four figures visible at different distances one walking toward an open workshop door with warm light inside, two others chatting near a small food counter with produce in the window, a fourth figure tending shared garden beds, a citrine yellow delivery vehicle visible further down the street where someone is unloading a return container, warm sunlight, the feeling of a village street where everyone knows each other, lived-in and welcoming not pristine, mid-century advertising illustration style, 1960s World's Fair poster aesthetic, bold confident graphic design, flat color areas with clean edges, warm optimistic palette featuring citrine yellow and teal and coral red accents, Madison Avenue print advertisement quality, retro-futuristic consumer optimism, slightly stylized figures without detailed faces, cheerful domestic scene, gouache and screenprint texture * * * _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 13/04/2026
The neighborhood workshop where skilled artisans tend your things before they break — making them more yours over time.
circudyne.com
The Atelier
_This letter is part of the_ Carousel of Plenty_, a series exploring products and services that could only exist in the_ Circular Century_. We talk a lot about circular transformation — why it matters, how it works, what it demands of leaders. This season, we show you where it leads. Each essay presents one solution: something you'd use, live with, or depend on in a world designed for permanence rather than disposal. The premise is simple. The linear economy promised progress and delivered volume — more things, fewer of them worth having. The Circular Century delivers plenty: the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. These are its furnishings._ * * * ## Your Things Deserve an Artist > You know, it used to be that when something wore out, you just went and bought another one. The jacket got a little tired in the shoulders. The upholstery on the car seat went thin where your elbow sits. The color faded on a phone case after a summer in the sun. And what could you do? You lived with it, or you replaced it. Those were your options. > Well, friends, let me tell you about the place down the street that changed all that. > It's called an atelier — that's a fancy word for a workshop, but the fancy is the point. This isn't a repair shop. Nothing's broken. It's a studio where people who are very, very good with their hands (and have the latest tools) tend the things you own before they ever need emergency attention. They oil your boots. They adjust the jacket so the shoulder finally sits right — the way it never quite did off the rack. They re-cover the car seat in a fabric that develops a patina that belongs to you and nobody else. > And here's the part Mother likes. That old set of kitchen chairs? The ones we were about to haul to the curb? She sent them in last Tuesday with the robot milkman. By Thursday they came back with new cane seats and a finish that made them look like something from a magazine. The kids didn't even recognize them. She's been polishing them every morning since, just for the pleasure of it. > Over time, your things stop getting worse. They get better. More _yours_. More suited. More beautiful. The artisan knows your name. Your history is on file. And the work — well, the work is art. > This is life in the Circular Century, friends. Your things deserve an artist. And now they've got one. * * * ## For the Consumer Last week, we covered how the Robot Milkman works like a circulatory system. It is an infrastructure that hums beneath daily life, moving things in and out, silently, on schedule. The Atelier is where those things go when they need a human hand. Not a repair shop. The distinction matters. A repair shop waits for failure. You bring it something broken and it restores what was. An atelier tends what's whole. It makes things fit better, last longer, look the way you always wished they had. The job is not restoration. It is evolution. The word is borrowed from fine art. Hermès calls its workshops _ateliers_. A painter's studio is an atelier. The word carries weight: what happens here is skilled, considered, and beautiful. We use it deliberately. The person who re-covers your car seat is not a mechanic. She is an artisan. The word tells her so, and it tells you. The atelier can be independent — a neighborhood studio where a craftsperson maintains everything from boots to bicycles to kitchen furniture. Or it can be part of a brand. Imagine an electronics manufacturer that doesn't just sell you a phone but runs a studio where your device gets fitted with the case material you chose, in the color you love, shaped to your grip. When the next generation of internals arrives, you don't replace the phone. You bring it in. The screen improves. The camera improves. The shell — the part that feels like yours — stays. Or imagine an automaker whose showroom doubles as a refurbishment studio. BMW's Vision C concept already demonstrated the hardware: twist-key upholstery panels that detach completely, enabling seasonal refreshes without replacing the car. What's missing is the place — the beautiful, accessible place where customers experience the refresh as a visit to their craftsperson, not a trip to the dealer. The atelier is that missing piece. Here is what all of this gives you that the linear economy never will. **Things that improve with age.** Your boots get resoled with better materials. Your kitchen table gets refinished when the kids outgrow the phase where they carve their initials into everything. Your phone gets a new shell in a material that didn't exist when you bought it. Not repairs, but upgrades that honor the original. **A relationship, not a transaction.** You go back to the same place. The same craftspeople. They know your jacket, and they know the left shoulder rides high because you carry a bag on that side. They adjust for it without being asked. It's _couture,_ at scale. **Freedom from the replacement cycle.** The linear economy needs you to discard. That is the business model: sell, obsolesce, sell again. The atelier breaks the cycle. When your things improve instead of decline, the pressure to replace evaporates. You stop shopping out of frustration and start choosing out of desire. That is sovereignty over your material life. Think of a baseball player's glove. It arrives as a standard product. Through use and care — oiling, reshaping, relacing — it becomes _his_ glove. No one else's hand fits it the same way. The atelier scales that experience to everything you own. Your car interior. Your winter coat. Your kitchen. The deeper job is not "get my things fixed." It is: _I want my things to become more_ mine _over time._ And the economics that make this possible are not magic. They are structural. The robot milkman handles the logistics — pickup and delivery so you never have to drive anywhere. Ambient intelligence tells the artisan what needs attention before you call. Renewable energy powers the workshop for nearly nothing. Regenerative technologies abound. The only scarce input left is the artisan's skill, but skill is a capital investment with durable returns. Hermès proved this. When demand for their bags exceeded the supply of artisans capable of making the difficult saddle stitch, they did not automate or cut corners. They invested in creating new skilled artisans — elaborate training, purpose-built studios, conditions for lifetime employment. Their output grew even as quality and desirability held. We have called this the atelier of democracy: the place where the Circular Century's promise of mass customization becomes real. What if the Hermès logic applied to everything — not at Hermès prices, but at prices made possible when the support system around the artisan approaches zero marginal cost? * * * ## By the Producer The atelier only works when the manufacturer wants the product to last. Under planned obsolescence, every year an artisan extends a product's life is a year of lost replacement revenue. The skilled maintainer is an economic threat. The manufacturer has no reason to share design intent, supply parts, or build for serviceability. In that world, the atelier is an adversary. The Circular Century inverts this. When the manufacturer retains ownership, profits from remanufacture, or competes on stewardship reputation, the atelier becomes a partner, or a capacity. But in any case it is the place where consumer, producer, and product meet to make things better. Because the longer your things last, the more profitable the relationship. Winning Aspiration**:** Become the trusted steward of products across their full lifetime — the relationship layer between manufacturer and owner. Where to Play**:** The territory linear manufacturers abandon after the warranty expires. Post-purchase product lifecycle. The decades between sale and disposal where no one currently competes, because no one currently profits from being there. How to Win**:** Skill. Knowledge of your specific products, your preferences, your history. Switching costs built on accumulated relationship — not contractual lock-in, but the fact that the artisan down the street knows your things and you trust her judgment. What Would Have to Be True**:** Manufacturers must want products to last. They must share design intent, not just parts lists. The return network — that robot milkman — must exist to handle logistics. Energy must be cheap enough that skilled human attention is the dominant cost. And the culture must value craft again — must see the person who tends your boots as an artist, not a laborer. Care is the new luxury. Unlike the old luxuries, it scales. * * * > Image prompt: > A craftsperson seen from behind at a well-lit workbench in a warm neighborhood atelier studio, carefully tending a beautiful woven textile object, artisan tools arrayed with care on the wall, warm citrine light streaming through a window, mid-century advertising illustration style, 1960s World's Fair poster aesthetic, bold confident graphic design, flat color areas with clean edges, warm optimistic palette featuring citrine yellow and teal and coral red accents, Madison Avenue print advertisement quality, retro-futuristic consumer optimism, slightly stylized figures without detailed faces, cheerful workshop scene, gouache and screenprint texture --ar 3:2 --s 300 --no photorealistic, photograph, HDR, dark, dystopian, gritty, lens flare, stock photo * * * _The rest of this letter is for Dynamo members — the people building plenty with us. If you're reading as a guest, you're welcome here. But the best seats on the Carousel are reserved._ Join the Dynamos. ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
110
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 30/03/2026
Closing out a season that asked why circularity stalled — and discovered that the environmental case, while critical, is not enough to close the deal. The benefits hiding behind it are the ones that will.
circudyne.com
On the Bubble
When I first started the practice of writing these weekly letters last year, I landed on the idea to group them by the dozen according to a specific theme. That way, I could access broad subject matter while going deeper on another. After three seasons, I'm ready to declare victory on that objective. It's been an effective learning process. Three seasons ago, Introduction to Circudyne laid out an architecture: five domains, a transformation methodology, and the argument that circularity should be understood as Lean's successor. Two seasons ago, A Circudyne Odyssey traced the constellation of thinkers who shaped that architecture — and discovered, along the way, that storytelling was not just a theme in the work but its connective tissue. The season that just ended asked a harder question. If the architecture is sound and the ideas are robust, why hasn't the Circular Century arrived by now? On the Bubble was written to confront that question honestly. Circularity is rich with promise, heavy with expectation, and now under pressure to prove what it can deliver. This series examined why — and what must change. * * * ## A trove of motivations Twelve essays later, the answer is clearer than I expected. The Circular Century has not arrived yet because its advocates have been selling the wrong thing. For thirty years, circularity has been pitched as an environmental obligation. Reduce waste. Cut emissions. Close loops. The logic makes sense. So why hasn't it worked? The circularity gap is moving in the wrong direction not because the science is flawed or the economics don't pencil out, but because moral obligation alone does not produce enough momentum to justify radical transformation. _Letter_ by _Letter_ , _On the Bubble_ compiled a serviceable inventory of benefits circularity actually offers — to brands, to individuals, to the culture at large — once the environmental frame is set aside as table stakes rather than _raison d'être_. Strategic advantage. Organizational resilience. Joy. Sovereignty. Dignity. A relationship with objects and systems and time that is fundamentally more humane than what the linear economy provides. The environmental imperative is the reason to begin. Everything else is the reason to stay. That distinction — _have to_ versus _get to_ — turned out to be the season's moral. And it is the bridge to what comes next. * * * > 🔜 _Next week marks the beginning of our next series._ The last three seasons on architecture, ideas, and honest diagnosis are conceptual pillars for a circular future. Now it's time to populate it. The next series will explore specific products and services that could only exist in a circular economy. * * * ## A note on this letter Each season of _The Circudyne Letter_ follows a rhythm: twelve substantive essays for our Dynamo subscribers, and a thirteenth — this one — offered freely to everyone. To our Dynamo members: thank you. Your patronage makes this work possible. The depth of the weekly letters — the Practitioner Insights, the frameworks, the extended arguments — exists because you've decided it's worth investing in. That matters more than I can say. To everyone reading this summary: welcome. If what you find here resonates, I hope you'll consider joining the Dynamo tier. Each of the essays below represents a full letter, and what follows is a brief sketch of each. The real substance lives behind the links. * * * ## The season at a glance _On the Bubble_ did not follow a pre-drawn map. The question — is circularity a bubble? what is the state of play? what would it take to regain momentum? — resisted clean answers. Each essay followed the thread where it led, and the season's shape became visible only in retrospect. What follows is a sketch of where each letter went, and what it found there. * * * The Supply Mirage _Circularity was built for a moment of expected scarcity. That moment never fully arrived._ The season opened by confronting an uncomfortable origin story. Early circular economy advocacy rested on a supply-side thesis — rising material costs and resource volatility would force redesign. The thesis was reasonable. It was also wrong, or at least premature. The absence of that forcing function left circularity without its most compelling economic argument. → The supply case was necessary but insufficient. Demand-side motivation must carry the weight now. * * * Leadership in the Time of Enshittification _Why rigidly managed systems so often end in decay._ This letter examined what linear optimization actually produces when left to run its course. Cory Doctorow's concept of enshittification provided the lens: the systematic extraction of value from users, then business customers, then the platform itself. A feature, not a bug, of linear logic. → Enshittification is what happens when optimization has no regenerative principle. Circularity is the antidote, not the cost center. * * * Empathy Is a Strategic Capacity _A path to product–market fit before markets, metrics, or demand signals exist._ How do you build for a future that doesn't have established demand signals? This letter argued that empathy — the capacity to model another's experience before data confirms it — is not just EQ but strategic infrastructure. It's what enables worldbuilding where time and value are not yet fixed. → Empathy is how you achieve product–market fit for futures that don't yet exist. * * * From Managers to Diplomats _Managing within a system in decline is a form of denial._ This letter turned the lens on leadership itself. Management optimizes within existing frames. Diplomacy negotiates between frames — between what is and what must become. Circular transformation requires the second skill. Drawing on international relations and statecraft, it distinguished between the two, and argued that circular leaders more closely resemble diplomats than operators. → The circular leader's job is not to manage the existing system better. It is to negotiate the transition to the next one. * * * Maintenance Is a First Principle _Why your strategy's relationship with "stuff" determines its limits._ Stewart Brand's thesis on maintenance — that how we care for things determines our fate — became the pivot point of the season. This letter connected Brand's thinking to circular strategy, arguing that the relationship a company has with the physical world reveals its actual values, regardless of what the annual report says. → Maintenance is not a cost center. It is the most honest expression of what a company believes. * * * Transformative Ends, Incremental Means? _The era of incremental change is rapidly coming to a close._ This letter confronted the most common objection: wouldn't a hybrid, incremental approach be safer? The answer, examined in structural detail, was no. Circular transformation and linear optimization are not compatible modes. You cannot incrementally transform a system whose logic runs in the opposite direction. This was the letter that planted its flag hardest. → Incremental change is how you improve a system. Transformation is how you replace one system with another. These are different activities. * * * Reassurance Is a Strategic Capacity _The performance economy, at its best, creates the conditions for play. At its worst, it creates the conditions for vigilance._ John Hench, the Disney Imagineer who spent decades thinking about the felt experience of designed environments, meets Walter Stahel, the architect of the performance economy. Hench solved a problem Stahel hadn't addressed: how do you make a long-term service relationship feel worth staying in? Subscription fatigue, in this light, is not a pricing problem. It is a care problem. → Joyless durability is a sentence. Reassurance — the felt sense that someone is looking after the details — is what transforms obligation into loyalty. * * * Vendor Dependency and the Loveless Long-Term Relationship _In a performance economy, the product is a vessel. The software is the spirit. What happens when the spirit departs?_ This letter examined the dark side of product longevity. A durable good in the performance economy is a software-defined good, and software-defined goods die when their makers lose interest, or go away. Rivian's brand promise — and others like it — illustrated the challenge of the covenant: when companies ask customers to commit for the long term, they assume a responsibility they may not yet be equipped to honor. → Durability is a joint function of the product and the relationship. One without the other is abandonment with extra steps. * * * Are You a Punk? _When institutions produce the chaos, order becomes the rebellion._ The polarity has flipped. For fifty years, punk meant smashing things. Now the institutions are producing the chaos — enshittification, planned obsolescence, attention extraction — and the counterculture responds with order: repair, conscious non-consumption, saying "no thank you" and building something without you. This letter explored the conscious non-consumer: people who communicate through absence, invisible to demand models, powerful beyond measure. → The rebels of 2026 don't sneer. They organize. And the brands that can see them will have first-mover advantage into the largest underserved market in history. * * * More Joy, Less Work _The brand that sells "enough" will own the biggest business opportunity in history._ What you crave tells you what you lack. We crave simplicity — and abundant energy and intelligence are arriving just as the culture demands it. This letter returned to the Joy Hypothesis (joy is to circularity what quality was to Lean) and extended it: the circular economy's ultimate competitive advantage is not efficiency but liberation. Less friction. Less waste of time and attention. More of the life you actually want. → The market for "enough" — abundant, simple, joyful — is the largest unclaimed market opportunity in the world. * * * Why Self-Disrupt? _The environmental imperative is the reason to begin. This is about why you'll be glad you did it._ Part one of a two-part conclusion. This letter catalogued the non-environmental benefits of circular transformation for brands: strategic positioning, organizational health, customer intimacy, design coherence, cultural leadership. The environmental case is real. It is also not what makes executives commit. What makes them commit is seeing that circularity produces capabilities, positioning, and identity that linear firms simply cannot access. → _Have to_ versus _get to_. The difficulty is the moat. * * * A New Deal You Can Acquire For Yourself _Personal sovereignty in energy, attention, time, and your relationship with things._ Part two of the conclusion turned the lens toward individuals. If the previous letter was about what brands get, this one was about what people get: sovereignty over energy, attention, time, and their relationship with objects. The Circular Century, framed this way, is not an environmental program. It is a New Deal — the full inheritance of a surplus we were always owed, now finally within reach. → The Circular Century is not something that happens to you. It is something you acquire for yourself. * * * ## Parting thought When this season began, the question was: why hasn't the Circular Century arrived? By the end, the question had changed. It became: what would it take for people to _want_ it? The answer, it turns out, has been hiding in plain sight. Not in policy papers or lifecycle assessments, but in the lived experience of care, joy, sovereignty, and honest abundance that circular systems make possible. The environmental case opens the door. Everything on the other side of it is what makes people walk through. > 📬 _The Circudyne Letter_ returns next week with the start of a new series. Thank you for reading.
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 23/03/2026
Personal sovereignty in energy, attention, time, and your relationship with things. The Circular Century is a New Deal you can acquire for yourself — the full inheritance of a surplus you were always owed.
circudyne.com
A New Deal You Can Acquire For Yourself
### What Do You Want Your Life to Look Like? _On the Bubble — Week 12. Part II of a two-part conclusion._ Last week we asked why a brand would disrupt itself for circularity transformation. The answer: because it produces capabilities, positioning, and identity that linear firms cannot access. The difficulty is the moat. The ultimate competitive advantage is becoming the kind of company that people need to exist, now. This week: what does life look like on the other side of it? Not the environmental case. That is baked in the circular cake. This is about you. Your money. Your time. Your health. Your attention. What you get back when the system stops _taking_. * * * ## The water, again In A Future To Look Forward To, we borrowed David Foster Wallace's parable about fish who don't know what water is. The water we swim in is the linear economy: fashion-as-novelty, planned obsolescence, and extractive capitalism, reinforcing one another in a loop so pervasive and complete we mistake it for normal life. That essay was about seeing the water. This one is about the rebels who are leaving the fishbowl, and their prize. Here is the thing about life in the linear economy status quo: it is not merely unpleasant. It is expensive. We pay for it, personally, every day. The hedonic treadmill — the cycle of acquisition, disappointment, and replacement that the linear economy depends on — has a cost structure, and you are paying it. In time. In money. In the quality of your material surroundings. In cognitive bandwidth consumed by managing things that were designed to fail. This is not an accident. It is a pattern that repeats through history. Every dominant industrial paradigm follows the same arc. In the beginning, the producer meets the customer honestly. Ford builds a car people need at a price they can afford. The early internet builds tools of genuine utility. The central constraint defines the strategy — stamping costs, network effects — and the firm manages it in service of the customer. The relationship works. Then the constraint flips. The firm stops managing the constraint in service of the customer and starts managing the customer in service of the constraint. The automaker stops asking "what does the buyer need from this car over its full life?" and starts asking "how do we make them buy another one sooner?" The platform stops asking "how do we serve this audience?" and starts asking "how do we extract more attention per session?" This is the moment when manufactured dependence begins. The relationship inverts. The customer now serves the firm. The arsenal is extensive. Planned obsolescence forces repurchase. Proprietary ecosystems enforce lock-in. Subscription models capture rent more than ensure access. Complexity serves as a barrier — you can't understand it, so you can't do it yourself. Enshittification degrades the product you already depend on. Attention capture monetizes the hours you can't get back. This is not interdependence, which is mutual and chosen. It is not specialization, which is efficient and voluntary. Manufactured dependence is asymmetric, and always favors the seller. You need them more than they need you. They profit from that asymmetry. And they work to maintain it. The pattern isn't out of malice, though. It's in the DNA of linearity. Any business model organized around a scarce resource — stamping capacity, shelf space, human attention — will eventually find it more profitable to manage the customer (or the deal) than to serve them. The serving muscles atrophy. The extracting muscles grow. By the terminal phase, subscriptions are charged for features in the car. A data brokerage turns your habits into someone else's revenue. The firm has fully substituted retention capability for service capability. And the relationship it depends on can no longer be earned — only enforced. JA Westenberg observed that this terminal phase looks like a casino. The metaphor is apt. The volcano, the fountain, the spectacle a casino puts on the street — that is not decoration for its own sake. It is the business model made visible. When the odds favor the house, the only remaining competitive variable is interruption. You build a better spectacle, which draws more people through the door. The mathematics of the floor does the rest. The internet has replicated this architecture perfectly. The feed is the spectacle. The thumbnail is the volcano. The notification is the free drink carried to your elbow at the slot machine. The smartest engineers at some of the most valuable companies on earth are building better interruptions. Not better products. Better lures. The product _is_ the interruption. And the economics are the same. The postwar economic surplus — the extraordinary productivity gains, technological breakthroughs, and accumulated wealth of the past eighty years — is significant. You earned your share of it. But the house has been structured so that you never take it home. Every form of manufactured dependence serves the same function: keeping your winnings in circulation on the floor. Circularity is how you leave the casino. Er, the fishbowl. Not empty-handed. With what you've earned. * * * ## What you get back When you change the economic architecture, the benefits are mechanically defined. They fall out of the structure with gravity. Here is what a world without manufactured dependence returns to you — not because the companies are nicer, but because their economics no longer require it. **Your money.** The replacement cycle is a tax you pay for the privilege of participating in the linear economy. A household that replaces appliances on planned obsolescence schedules, upgrades devices on two-year carrier cycles, and furnishes with fast-fashion home goods is hemorrhaging wealth through a system designed to prevent accumulation, and thus independence. That is the business model. The firm that sells you a washing machine engineered to fail in seven years has no economic reason to build one that lasts twenty. The firm whose revenue depends on keeping your washing machine running for twenty years has no economic reason to let it fail. Products that last decades instead of years are not more expensive. They are cheaper — radically — over any reasonable time horizon. The Bell phone worked for forty years. The feature phone that displaced it was landfill in three. The concept is not hard to understand. When the performance economy matures — when you organize mobility, shelter, and material goods as services designed around lifetime value rather than ad hoc unit sales — the economics invert further. Philips demonstrated this with lighting: 50% energy cost reduction for the customer, 37% increase in customer lifetime value for Philips. Both sides won because the incentive structure aligned. The firm got richer by making the product last. The customer got richer for the same reason. You don't need a macroeconomic theory to feel this dynamic. You already know the feeling when purchases are investments and when they are waste. The circular economy makes the investment the default. **Your time.** Every product designed to fail imposes a time cost: researching the replacement, transacting the purchase, disposing of the old one, learning the new one. Multiply this across every category of material life — clothing, electronics, transportation, household goods — and the hours are staggering. They are invisible because they are distributed. But they compound. The hamster wheel spins. You are not failing to find enough time because you aren't working hard enough. You are failing because the wheel is the product. The system converts your effort into its own revenue — not into your progress. Circular systems intentionally return this time to you. When your closet contains pieces that last decades and coordinate by design, the morning becomes curation rather than triage. When your home works like LEGO — modular, interoperable, upgradeable — a broken component is a five-minute swap, not a weekend project. When maintenance is built into the service model, the logistics of upkeep disappear from your calendar. The 50L Home initiative provides an effective demonstration. Water consumption dropped, satisfaction increased, and — crucially — nobody changed their routine. The design absorbed the effort. This is what it looks like when the architecture serves you instead of managing you. **Your health.** This is the dimension that gets the least attention and may matter the most. The anxiety produced by the linear economy is not metaphorical. Financial stress from the replacement cycle. Decision fatigue from manufactured choice overload. The low-grade dread of owning things you know are degrading, and renting things that are appreciating. The cognitive burden of navigating systems designed to confuse — pricing structures, subscription traps, planned incompatibilities. And most of all, the dread for an uncertain future all this brings. These are physiological costs. Cortisol is not a metaphor. The 2,000-watt neighborhoods in Switzerland found something remarkable: when resource sharing was designed into the infrastructure, neighbors became friends. Civic participation increased. The mechanism was not ideology, but proximity and shared interest, enabled by design. The health benefits of community are among the most robust findings in medicine. Circular systems produce community as a structural byproduct because when the extractive pressure lifts, people naturally turn toward each other and find common cause. **Your attention.** This is your ticket out of the fishbowl. Every dollar and engineering hour a linear company spends capturing your attention is a dollar and hour not spent making the product better. That is a tradeoff linear architecture demands. When the model monetizes attention, distraction is the modality. Engineering hours pour into optimizing the interruption. The experience degrades. The linear firm can't stop, because the interruption is what pays the bills. Remove the architectural need for interruption and those resources migrate. The engineers build better products instead of better traps. The designers optimize the experience instead of the engagement metric. You get a better relationship with every brand in your life because they grow richer by serving you than by capturing you. Circular systems have no structural need for your attention beyond engaging you in a moment of genuine service. When a brand profits by keeping your product working rather than selling you a replacement, the incentive to hold your attention diminishes. The relationship becomes one of competence, not compulsion. You engage when you choose to. The rest of the time, the system works quietly and well. You can tell the difference. You already know which brands respect your attention and which ones monetize it. The circular economy makes the former the only viable strategy. * * * ## Who you get to be The transformative travel segment discovered a formulation worth borrowing: the benefit isn't where you go, it's who you become. We said as much last week about brands. It applies at least as well to individuals. The 21st century offers accumulated wealth and technology sufficient for human flourishing. Ambient intelligence, renewable energy, manufacturing with molecular precision. These are the birthright of our times. They should not be employed against us. Circularity provides insurance that they won't. That's why the 21st century should be the Circular Century. The circular life is the practice of mottainai — the Japanese ethic of reverence for the material world, of treating waste as a form of disrespect — elevated from cultural heritage into a contemporary, accessible luxury. Consider what sovereignty would mean in this world. **Sovereign in energy.** Solar on the roof. In parts of the world, solar panels are now part of the dowry, powering household economics that become cultural infrastructure. The energy bill becomes a relic. The surplus feeds back into the grid or charges the car you access as a service. **Sovereign in attention.** The feeds are gone, as are the products whose business models require your compulsive engagement. You read what you choose. The library card is back. **Sovereign in time.** As a structural matter, the hours you spent managing the replacement cycle — researching, purchasing, disposing, relearning (not to mention earning) — are yours again. **Sovereign in your relationship with things.** Your possessions improve with time. Materials that age into beauty. Repairs that add character. The kintsugi principle, applied to daily life. Each object has a history because it was designed to have one. Circular practices that feel fussy, like repair, making, and maintaining, correlate with higher life satisfaction. Not despite the effort, but because of it. Competence is a human need, at least as important as pride in ownership. The pleasure of understanding how things work, of capable participation rather than helpless consumption, is among the most reliable sources of wellbeing the psychology literature has identified. New punks, different world. The counterculture has inverted: when institutions produce chaos, the rebellion responds with order. They are making a New Deal for themselves. They are not waiting for a new FDR. There is no savior and none is needed. They know what the good life looks like. They have chosen rebellion against the conditioning to believe the answer is to work harder, deny their true interests, and keep spinning — hamsters in a wheel instead of human beings at the pinnacle of their collective power. The conditioning is the casino. The sovereignty is the exit. What they need are provisions. The allies — not saviors, allies — whose economic architecture makes them structurally incapable of betraying the relationship. The brands, the systems, the modular infrastructure that makes sovereignty accessible at scale. Last week we described those allies: brands that act as champions, whose prosperity is coupled to their customers' flourishing. This week, we can name what their customers are building. * * * ## The new deal Imagine a New Deal you can acquire on your own. A personal compact with the material world that you negotiate for yourself, your family, and your community — using the tools that are now available, with allies whose prosperity depends on your flourishing. The industrial revolution generated an enormous economic surplus. The postwar era compounded it. By any reasonable measure, there is enough; enough energy, enough intelligence, enough productive capacity — for human flourishing at a scale our grandparents could not have imagined. The problem was never scarcity. The problem was the casino. The house took its cut through planned obsolescence, through enshittification, through attention capture, through every mechanism that kept the surplus circulating rather than settling. You worked for it. You earned it. You never got to take it home. Here is why circularity is different — and why the deal holds this time. Every previous industrial paradigm organized itself around something scarce. And every time, the scarcity eventually turned the firm against the customer. We traced the pattern above: the constraint flips, manufactured dependence enters, the casino takes over. It is intrinsic to the linear product cycle. It always happens; just a matter of when. The circular economy rearranges the deal around what is abundant. Energy is becoming a technology rather than a resource — solar capacity doubles every few years, installed now at a pace that would have seemed fictional a decade ago. Intelligence is becoming infrastructure — AI following the same cost curve as electricity, becoming ambient and available. When your business model monetizes abundant energy and intelligence rather than scarce materials and attention, you never hit the phase where serving the customer and managing the constraint diverge. The brand gets richer the longer and better it serves you. No curdling. No expiration date on the relationship. This is the structural promise. It does not depend on kindness or even enlightened leadership beyond the initial transformation: a permanently different architecture where the interests of the firm and the interests of the customer stay aligned because the economics reward the alignment. No extraction required. > 🐹 The cost of stepping off the treadmill has never been lower. The cost of staying on has never been higher. What the circular life offers is not a smaller existence. It is the full inheritance. The surplus you were always owed, finally collected. Invested not in another spin of the wheel, but in a life that compounds: better things, deeper relationships, more time, more health, more sovereignty, more joy. "Enough" is not a ceiling. It is a foundation. And the beauty of it — the part that makes it a luxury rather than a discipline — is that the practice itself is the reward. The maintenance of your material world becomes a craft. The curation of your possessions becomes an art. The relationships with the brands that serve you become covenants — economic partnerships between allies whose interests are structurally aligned. The community that forms around shared sovereignty becomes the neighborhood you actually want to live in. This is a homeward bound evolution of Star Trek's post-scarcity frontier. It is neither degrowth's principled austerity nor the technocrat's optimized efficiency. It is the hearth. The homeward turn. The Circular Century is not an era we need permission to enter. It is the one we build, starting with the next choice. * * * _On the Bubble is a Circudyne Letter series taking stock of the macro transition to circularity. Subscribe to follow the full series._ * * * ## Practitioner Provocations ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 16/03/2026
The environmental imperative is the reason to begin. This is about why you'll be glad you did it. Have to versus get to. Part I of a two-part conclusion.
circudyne.com
Why Self-Disrupt?
_On the Bubble — Week 11. Part I of a two-part conclusion._ * * * The environmental case for circularity is real. This essay is not about that. For thirty years, the environmental imperative has been the pitch. Reduce waste. Cut emissions. Close loops. For thirty years, the circularity gap has moved in the wrong direction. Not because the logic is wrong, but because it's not enough to make people fully commit to change. The environmental imperative foregrounds the obligation that tells a company it _has to_ transform. It neglects what the company _gets to_ become. There is a precedent to this: the invention of Lean. Toyota _had to_ cut costs. That was the assignment. What they _got to_ discover was the key to quality. Quality opened doors that cost reduction by itself never would have. The capability they built to eliminate waste on the Corolla line turned out to be what luxury-grade manufacturing requires. Soon, Lexus was outselling BMW. Doing the right thing opens the door to getting more things right. The returns you can't currently model may be larger than the ones you can. This letter is about the _get to_. * * * * The pitch is missing something * The economic case is real — and pre-empirical * What the transformation cultivates * What the brand gets to be * What you become * Practitioner Provocations ## The pitch is missing something We've spent ten weeks examining the macro transition to circularity. The supply-side strategy is exhausted. Enshittification is structural, not incidental. Subscription fatigue proves that solving the economics without solving the experience is insufficient. Conscious non-consumers are acting — quietly, communicating through absence. Something is missing from the pitch. Neither the data nor the urgency, but the _appeal_. The part that makes a leader say: I want to build that. Not: I suppose I must. ## The economic case is real — and pre-empirical The advantages of circularity transformation are significant. But quantifying them in advance is hard. Not because the returns aren't there, but because circular product-service concepts at scale are new-to-world. As Roger Martin aptly put it in his evergreen essay _Overcoming the Pervasive Analytical Blunder of Strategists_ (emphasis his): > “As a strategist, before you make any decision based on data analysis of any sort, you must ask yourself one simple question: Am I willing to assume that the future will be identical to the past? If the answer is yes, then do what the analysis tells you to do. If the answer is no, then DO NOT USE THE ANALYSIS.” In 2006, there was no proven market for a touchscreen smartphone without a keyboard. No supply chain for capacitive glass at consumer scale. No tested value proposition for mobile internet on a pocket-sized device. Every conventional metric said Blackberry was winning. This is the condition of every category-creating innovation before it succeeds. The evidence for circularity transformation comes from pattern recognition and structural logic, not somebody else's playbook. _Waste elimination_ at expanded scope must produce cost advantage. Service revenue from _ongoing relationships_ must exceed one-time transaction revenue over the life of the customer. Materials that _cycle rather than deplete_ must reduce input costs over time. The pattern is the same one Toyota followed to get to Lean. The scope of circularity is broader than that. Waiting for a completed proof means waiting for someone else to build the iPhone. And when conventional metrics can't cross the knowledge frontier — when your spreadsheet blinks that critical blank cell — what do you navigate by? You navigate by understanding what people actually need. That is what empathy does. It is a strategy superpower; the faculty that lets you anticipate market acceptance for something that doesn't exist yet. Steve Jobs had it. Toyota had it — they listened to American drivers in a way Detroit chose not to. The circularity innovator needs empathy because the customers can't tell you what they want when the category doesn't yet exist. The say-do gap doesn't close by asking better questions. It closes by imagining on their behalf. ## What the transformation cultivates Circularity transformation produces capabilities that can't be purchased and resist commoditization. Three of these deserve attention. **Imagination as capital.** Linear accounting treats this generative capacity as an expense. Something consumed in the using. Circular transformation treats it as an investment. Something that contains the seeds of its own replication. Christensen's admonition applies here: we husband what's scarce and squander what's abundant. AI is making information about _what is_ perfect and cheap. The ability to envision _what could be_ is becoming the scarce factor of production. > 🧠 In a world flooded with analytical intelligence, imaginative intelligence is the bottleneck. The bottleneck is where value accrues. This scarcity is compounding. We need imagination to fix crises that spreadsheets helped create. We need it to meet consumers who are already building a different kind of lifestyle and waiting for someone to provision them. The organizations that cultivate this faculty will have the scarce thing. The rest will have the abundant thing. Ask Blackberry how that works out. **Organizational health as leading indicator.** The data-proven link between better processes, self-knowledge, and higher enterprise value follows the same pattern observed in Lean. But don't file this under "nice to have." It's a measurable early signal that the transformation is working. Employee engagement. Cross-functional collaboration quality. Talent retention. Decision-making speed. These are observable before the revenue model has fully turned over. They tell leadership to stay the course when the financials haven't caught up yet. The canary is singing, not dying. **Diplomatic capability.** Circular ecosystems require statecraft, not management. They require empathy and reassurance as institutional capacities. They reward outcome-oriented metrics — weight, not reps — over process compliance. These are human capabilities. Hard to develop. Impossible to automate. And the organizations that build them will have something their linear competitors will find hard to acquire on any timeline. ## What the brand gets to be The cultural positioning that circularity transformation unlocks is historically rare. It only becomes available during ideological transitions — when how people live falls out of alignment with how they want to live. We are in such a transition. The counterculture has inverted. When institutions oppress through chaos, the rebellion responds with order. Douglas Holt's research is clear: iconic brands achieve their status by crossing over to the counterculture's side. Always. No exceptions. The brands that cross over during this transition — siding with order, craft, sovereignty — will be to the Circular Century what Carrier and GE were to the suburban century. Here is the structural reason they can pull it off. Lee Clow said that everything a brand does is media, and the sum of all its media is the brand. Most companies can't act on this. Siloed organization makes incoherence structural. The messaging says "we care." The business logic says "we're extracting." That contradiction — the one John Hench diagnosed as the source of environmental anxiety — is a structural misalignment. Rhetoric can't fix it, because the customer can always tell. Circular product-service models demand profound reorganization. Lifecycle management. Reverse logistics. Ongoing service. Cross-functional integration. These require the kind of functional organization that makes incoherence structurally difficult. The brand story isn't bolted on. It's emitted by the system. That is why greenwashing fails. And why circular enterprises won't need it. > 🔄 Brands occupy a unique position — between captured governments and atomized individuals. The brand that builds provisions for the ascending counterculture owns the commercial opportunity of the era. Not government. Government moves too slowly and has been captured. Not individuals. Willpower doesn't scale. The brand that builds provisions for the ascending counterculture of intentional sufficiency owns the commercial opportunity. And the loyalty that follows is not transactional. Rivian owners report the highest satisfaction in the industry despite below-average reliability and persistent financial losses. The loyalty comes from somewhere other than the spec sheet. It comes from the _feeling_ among its customers that the covenant is real. That the company is in it for the long run, even if they’re facing a long struggle. That the relationship is worth staying in. When a relationship ends and you feel grief, the coherence was genuine. When you feel relief, the contradiction was always there. That's the line between a covenant and a contract. ## What you become Everything above describes what circular transformation _gives_ you. This is the part about what it _makes_ you. The capabilities that only circular firms need to build are invisible to linear competitors. They have no reason to develop them. They won't see them coming. * Intelligent reverse logistics. Knowing where every asset is. Managing each unit's return, refurbishment, and redeployment individually. This takes years of data, infrastructure, and organizational learning. * Comprehensive digital twins. A complete model of every physical asset in the system — its condition, its history, its remaining useful life, its optimal next use. The intelligence layer that makes the performance economy actually _perform_. It gets smarter every year. * Material passports. The full composition and provenance of every component, enabling intelligent disassembly and reuse. * Predictive maintenance at scale. Anticipating service needs before failure. The leather-strap suspension — at industrial scope. Maintenance as message. * Cross-lifecycle product design. Designing not for one life but for the second, third, and fourth — each generation informed by data from the ones before. Such capabilities share four properties. Invisible to the customer. Hard to build. Impossible to shortcut. Compounding over time. > 🏷️ The difficulty is the moat. Volkswagen has been building cars for nearly a century. Rivian has existed for about fifteen years. VW had to license Rivian's electrical architecture and software platform. Not because Rivian knows more about making cars, but because Rivian was built from inception around a longer planning horizon. Rivian's organization assumes the vehicle is a relationship. VW's assumes something else. A century of institutional muscle memory can't be retrained by memo. Rivian lives further in the future than VW does. That is the moat in action. And the loop reinforces itself. Functional organization enables longer planning horizons. Longer planning horizons make covenant-keeping actionable. Keeping covenants produces organizational health. Organizational health builds functional muscle. The whole system spirals upward. Linear organizations spiral the other direction. Siloed structure. Short planning horizons. Broken promises. Organizational dysfunction. Shorter horizons still. The distance between the two spirals widens with every turn. * * * When you integrate these capabilities with the economic advantages, the organizational capacities, and the cultural positioning described above, the circular enterprise crosses a threshold. It becomes a different kind of entity. Not a linear brand doing business differently. A different species of enterprise. The linear brand succeeds by creating need. The circular brand succeeds by resolving it. The linear brand profits from the treadmill. The circular brand profits from stopping it. > 💎 The ultimate competitive advantage of circular transformation is becoming the kind of company that people need to exist. This enterprise is a champion. An economic ally whose prosperity is structurally coupled to its customers' flourishing. Not through goodwill. Not through corporate social responsibility. Through incentive alignment. It builds the little ships that citizens captain for themselves. It makes sovereignty accessible. It catalyzes the metamorphosis of its customers into the quiet punks who bring order to the world. The ultimate competitive advantage of circular transformation is becoming the kind of company that people need to exist. _Next week: what does the customer get to experience on the other side of it?_ * * * _On the Bubble is a Circudyne Letter series taking stock of the macro transition to circularity.__Subscribe_ _to follow the full series._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
001
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 09/03/2026
Abundant energy and intelligence are arriving just as the culture demands simplicity. The brand that sells "enough" will own the biggest business opportunity in history.
circudyne.com
More Joy, Less Work
What you crave tells you what you lack. The courts of Versailles craved splendor. Their lives were cold, violent, and short. Splendor was the fantasy, the escape, the thing that couldn't be had cheaply. So they gilded everything. Midcentury American men craved rugged independence. They were accountants and middle managers and insurance adjusters from the suburbs. So they watched John Wayne westerns on Saturday nights and felt, for two hours, like men who answered to no one. _We_ crave simplicity. Why? Because we are drowning. The noise has become absurd. The feed refreshes and the options multiply and the inbox fills and the subscription renews and the notification pings and the algorithm suggests and somewhere underneath all of it is a person who just wanted to read a book tonight. There is a market signal here. A big one. And most brands are ignoring it. ## The Counterculture Already Knows Last week I described an emergent counterculture that doesn't look like the last one. Today’s punks are repairing their dishwasher. Growing food. Choosing quality over quantity. Opting out of systems that treat them as inputs. This week, we name the rebellion’s objective. They want _enough._ That word does more work than it appears to. "Enough" is not "less." It is the precise amount that satisfies without burdening. A well-made meal for four people. A home that fits. A tool that lasts. Enough is what you arrive at when you subtract everything that exists to serve someone else's business model instead of your life. The rebellion has an advantage: "enough" is closer at hand than at any point in human history. And the need for it is more urgent than ever. ## Two Arcs, One Moment ### The first arc: abundance is arriving. This is the _new_ abundance — not more stuff, more options, or more noise. Instead, a structural shift. **Energy** is becoming a technology rather than a resource. Bill McKibben reports that a gigawatt of solar capacity — roughly one coal plant's worth — is now installed every fifteen hours. In Pakistan, ninety-five percent of farmland in some regions has switched to solar, and a set of photovoltaic panels is now routinely included in a bride's dowry. The fuel cost, the biggest line item in a farmer's budget, is simply gone. **Intelligence** is following the same curve. It will become infrastructure, the way electricity did — invisible, ambient, available. Bill Nussey frames it like this: abundance happens when you convert a resource into a technology. That conversion is happening to energy right now, and to intelligence right behind it. ### The second arc: the culture of intentional constraint is ascendant. People are building replicas of Thoreau's cabin across America. Swiss communities are designing 2,000-watt neighborhoods where people work less, share more, and report higher satisfaction. In Los Angeles, the 50L Home coalition retrofitted thirty-one households with water-efficient fixtures and appliances. Nobody was asked to take shorter showers. Nobody changed their routine. Water and energy use dropped dramatically. Satisfaction went _up_. Some participants said they now take pleasure in chores they used to resent. In the 2,000-watt neighborhoods, the curated sharing of resources deepened civic participation and turned neighbors into friends. Most observers see these two arcs as contradictory. Abundance on one side. Constraint on the other. They are not contradictory. They are complementary. But their intersection benefits from creative management. ## The Treadmill Has Reached the Point of Absurdity Here is what stands between those two arcs and their natural convergence: the hedonic treadmill. You know the treadmill. You get the raise. You feel good for a little while. Then the new baseline sets in and you need the next raise. You buy the bigger house. It feels spacious for a little while. Then it feels normal and you need the renovation. The psychologists have documented this phenomenon for decades. Satisfaction from acquisition is temporary. The desire for more is permanent. The industrial economy didn't just tolerate the treadmill. It _required_ it. Planned obsolescence was the fuel for the process. And the bait. The factory needed output. Managers couldn't measure quality from across the floor, but they could spot idleness. So activity became the proxy for productivity, and then the proxy for virtue, and then the proxy for a life well lived. You can't see flourishing with your eyes, but you can see busyness. We optimized for the thing we could see and called it success. That error is now playing out at civilizational scale. We measure GDP — output — because it's easier to measure than joy. And then we mistake the metric for the goal. The treadmill was _always_ a bad deal. But it was an understandable one when material scarcity was acute. Today the treadmill has reached the point of self-parody. Algorithmic feeds sell you solutions to problems the previous algorithm created. Subscription tiers multiply to capture every marginal dollar of willingness to pay. The McMansion stands as the architectural expression of the treadmill: more square footage, more complexity, more cost, less taste, less coherence, less peace. It is everything that Thoreau's cabin was not. And here is the thing about Thoreau's cabin, or Chōmei's ten-foot hut: they are _implicitly tasteful_ in the way that things built with clear purpose are. The absence of excess _is_ the design. A McMansion has no such clarity. It is a style of building that doesn't know what it's for, expressed in architectural language it doesn't understand. The treadmill built it, and the treadmill is the only reason anyone would live in it. ## The Jevons Trap Jevons paradox is the most reliable pattern in resource economics: when you make something more efficient, people use more of it. Coal. Bandwidth. Attention. The rebound effect has held for a hundred and sixty years. Clay Christensen put it like this: we husband what’s scarce, and squander what’s plentiful. If energy becomes essentially free through renewables, and intelligence becomes essentially free through AI, Jevons predicts we will squander both. More energy means more consumption. More intelligence means more optimization of extraction. The abundance that could liberate us from the treadmill could just as easily accelerate it. In other words: McMansions of energy and intelligence. The simplicity advocates can't solve this alone. Thoreau went to the woods by himself. The monks formed communities of the deeply committed. The Swiss 2,000-watt neighborhoods require an infrastructure of civic consensus that doesn't travel. Individual willpower doesn't scale. Human nature never changes. Right? Jevons paradox is just that: a paradox, not a law. We have broken supposedly immutable links before. The most powerful human drive met the most elaborate governance system in history — thousands of years of religious, legal, and cultural architecture, all built on the assumption that the consequences of sex were inseparable from the act. And then a small pharmaceutical advance decoupled them in a generation. Nobody's nature changed. The system changed, and behavior followed. All at once. Incipient advances in energy and intelligence will decouple the link between efficiency and excess the same way. And circularity will enable the business models that thrive in that new set of circumstances. When materials cycle instead of deplete, when energy regenerates instead of exhausts, the drive for _more_ doesn't produce the consequence of _less_. You don't change human nature. You design a system where that nature stops causing damage. But technology alone is not enough. It needs fashioning into a compelling solution. Design, marketing, packaging, and organization all need to fit the new purpose. That’s what Steve Jobs did for computing. As Lee Clow, Steve Jobs’ advertising partner, understood: everything a brand does is media. The technology of circularity needs to be brought to life for people — or it remains an abstraction. ## The Privilege We Won't Take We accept longer, healthier lives as a gift. No one argues that modern medicine is an affront to the character-building virtues of dying young. No one insists that antibiotics make us soft. The compounding advances in healthcare are a privilege of living in this era, and we receive them gratefully. So why do we treat the hedonic treadmill as though stepping off it were a moral failure? Why do we treat overwork as dedication, overconsumption as ambition, and burnout as the price of seriousness? Industrial-era programming. Nothing more. Chōmei arrived at his ten-foot hut through years of philosophical reflection — after loss, after failure, after the long work of understanding what actually mattered to him. Thoreau went to Walden with the intellectual preparation of the entire Transcendentalist movement behind him. The path _to_ the insight was hard. But the destination they found — a life of intentional sufficiency, rich in beauty and quiet and thought — was materially modest even by the standards of their own centuries. Today, the path of philosophy is harder than ever. Information overload makes sustained self-examination feel impossible. The noise floor has risen so high that the Socratic conversation — the one that helps you discover what you actually want — can barely be heard. 🏷️ Constraint is the price of joy. It always has been. But that tradeoff has never been more favorable. But the destination Chōmei and Thoreau reached? That has never been easier to build. Imagine the ten-foot hut with photovoltaic panels and a heat pump. Imagine Walden with an induction cooktop and an e-bike. Imagine the monk's cell with a view of the stars _and_ a complete library of every civilization's accumulated knowledge, accessible from a device that fits in your hand. The material infrastructure for the intentional life is better, cheaper, and more available than at any point in history. The cost of stepping off the treadmill has never been lower. The cost of staying on has never been higher. Constraint is the price of joy. It always has been. But that tradeoff has never been more favorable. ## Provisions for the Journey The philosophical path to the intentional life is harder. The material path is easier. The desire is there — the counterculture of repair and restraint and quality is already growing. And the coming abundance of energy and intelligence could fund the transition beautifully, if it's directed toward making the simple life _better_ rather than making the complex life _more_. But the object of this desire doesn't sell itself. The greatest upgrade in history — more joy, less work, more beauty, less noise — has no sales force. The entire commercial apparatus is optimized to keep people on the treadmill. Every ad, every feed, every notification exists to sell _more._ Stepping off is anti-revenue by every conventional measure. Except one. Circular business models are the only economics where "buy less" is a growth strategy. When your revenue comes from ongoing service rather than unit sales, you _want_ fewer, more durable products in the field. When your design targets satisfaction rather than replacement, you _want_ customers to stop shopping. When your materials cycle rather than deplete, selling less means wasting less means earning more per unit of matter. This is the mediating institution between abundant resources and constrained living. Not government — governments have been captured, and they move too slowly. Not individuals alone — the philosophical path is too hard without support, and willpower doesn't scale: Brands. Brands that build the provisions for people who have already chosen the path — or who would choose it if someone made it accessible. Brands that embed the restraint into the product so the customer doesn't have to exercise willpower. The 50L Home participants didn't decide to use less water. The engineering decided for them, and they were happier. Fewer things. More durable. More beautiful. Serving needs higher on the pyramid of human aspiration. Earning more by making less. This is not austerity. It is the most sophisticated form of value creation available. The ascending counterculture — the quiet punks of repair and intention and enough — already know what they want. They are the new Chōmei. The new Thoreau. They need provisions. 💎 This is not austerity. It is the most sophisticated form of value creation available. The brand that provides them will own the largest commercial opportunity in history. Not because it's easy. Because it's hard, and the difficulty is the moat. * * * _On the Bubble is a Circudyne Letter series taking stock of the macro transition to circularity.__Subscribe_ _to follow the full series._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 02/03/2026
When institutions produce the chaos, order becomes the rebellion. The punks of 2026 don't sneer. They say "no thank you" and build something without you.
circudyne.com
Are You a Punk?
**Rebellion is afoot. But not where you think.** * Have you noticed a shift? * Look around. Who is producing the chaos now? * The polarity has flipped * Same defiance. New world. * Operation Dynamo: a bunch of punks * A lesson for brands that care * You can only cross over to a counterculture you can _see_. * The rebels are out there. * Practitioner Insights ## Have you noticed a shift? For fifty years, the word "punk" meant chaos. It meant smashing things. Tearing things up. Refusing the rules. This made perfect sense, because for fifty years, the big institutions — the corporations, the governments, the systems people depended on — were the ones imposing order. Sometimes helpful order. Sometimes suffocating order. But order. The deal was clear. Accept our terms. Wear the suit. Buy the product. Stay in your lane. In return, we'll give you stability. And the rebels said: no. They ripped their jeans. They smashed guitars on stage. They made noise and mess and art out of refusal. Chaos was the weapon, because order was the cage. That world is gone. ## Look around. Who is producing the chaos now? Your candy bar is not chocolate anymore. Confectioners quietly swapped the cocoa butter for vegetable fat and changed the label from "milk chocolate" to "chocolatey candy." They are betting you won't read the wrapper. That is one way to manage costs. It is also contempt. Your subscription costs more than it did last year and does less. Your phone is slower than it was before the update. Your airline seat is smaller than it was a decade ago. The product that lasted ten years now lasts two, and everyone in the boardroom knows it, and they shipped it anyway. 🖕 They are telling you — in every language except plain English — to go to hell. The power grid fails when it's hot. It fails when it's cold. The utility sends you a bigger bill either way. The platform that was useful three years ago is an advertising swamp today. The government makes a decision on Tuesday and reverses it on Thursday, and millions of people rearrange their lives both times. None of this comes with a warning. It comes with a label change you're meant not to read. A press release about "delivering enhanced value." A quarterly earnings call that celebrates the margin improvement without mentioning what was taken from whom. The private equity operator who buys a beloved company and strips it for parts calls it "value creation." The food scientist who replaces your chocolate with wax calls it "recipe optimization." The government that levies a tax on a whim. They are telling you — in every language except plain English — to go to hell. 🌀 The institutions are not imposing order anymore. They are producing entropy. __They__ are the mess. The contempt is in the business casual. The chaos is in the suit. The institutions are not imposing order anymore. They are producing entropy. _They_ are the mess. ## The polarity has flipped If the institutions (brands, the government) are dumping chaos from above, then the rebellion has no choice but to percolate order from below. You want to know what a punk looks like in 2026? The neighbor on her knees in the garden at 6 AM, coffee going cold on the fence post. The guy at the hardware store asking about replacement parts for a fifteen-year-old dishwasher. The family with the compost bin and the cast iron pan and the boots that have been re-soled twice. The woman who sharpens her kitchen knives instead of buying new ones. The kid who learned to solder from a YouTube video and fixed his own headphones. The couple who cancelled three subscriptions last month and didn't miss any of them. They don't look like punks. They are unassuming. They look boring. They look — and here is the important thing — _orderly_. Cables labeled. Garden beds measured. Meals planned from what's in them. Things maintained instead of replaced. Systems designed to last, in a world where nothing is designed to last. That's why you can't see them. If you suspect counterculture is having a moment, you’re right. But if you're scanning for the smashed guitar and the ripped jeans and the mohawk, you’re going to miss it. You're expecting the counterculture to look like chaos, because the last time, it did. But the last time, the establishment was orderly. This time, the establishment is the mess. So the rebellion changed its medium. The punk of 1977 smashed a guitar to refuse the bargain. The punk of 2026 labels a cable run to replace it. ## Same defiance. New world. The punk of 1977 was impossible to ignore. That was the whole point. The screamed lyrics, the torn clothes, the sneer — it was all _signal_. Loud signal. The establishment could see the rebellion coming. They could study it. React to it. Co-opt it. Market to it. Even fight it, if they wanted to lose slowly. Today's punk is polite. Today's punk doesn't boycott your product. A boycott is a gift — it tells you something is wrong and gives you a chance to fix it. But today's punk just leaves. No letter. No tweet. No dramatic exit. They stop buying the candy bar. Not because they read an article about compound coatings — though some did — but because it stopped tasting right and they'd rather make something from scratch. They cancel the subscription. They repair the appliance. They walk away from your brand quietly, politely, resolutely — and they don't tell you why. This is the part the instruments can't handle. Every demand model ever built works like a metal detector. It scans the ground for signals — clicks, conversions, intent data. It finds pockets of demand you can mine. Deposits you can squeeze harder. It is very good at finding what's there. It cannot find what walked away. The conscious non-consumer is economic dark matter. They don't emit a signal. They don't reflect your ad spend back to you. They don't register in your funnel because they've left. You only sense their presence by the growth that should be there that isn't. The galaxy should be expanding. Something invisible is holding it back. Your dashboards say everything is fine. Your KPIs are green. But the numbers are soft, and nobody in the room can explain why, because the people who left didn't slam the door. Bain estimates conscious non-consumers could be as much as 32% of the U.S. market. They aren’t coming. But they are taking names. ## Operation Dynamo: a bunch of punks In May of 1940, the British Army was trapped on the beach at Dunkirk. The Royal Navy had destroyers. Big, powerful ships — built for exactly this kind of crisis. But the destroyers drew too much water. Their armor, their guns, their institutional heft — the very things that made them formidable in deep ocean — made it impossible to reach the beaches. The Navy didn't send them and fail. They couldn't send them at all. The institution looked at the problem, looked at its own capabilities, and was helpless. So the small boats went instead. Fishing boats. Pleasure craft. Ferries. Little boats with shallow draft, piloted by civilians who had no military training and no grand strategy. > The captains of the Little Ships were punks. When institutions fail, that’s who shows up. And show up they did. Organized, orderly, and brave, they went into the space the institution couldn't reach. They had no armor. They didn't need it. They had presence, and purpose, and a willingness to sail into the gap. They built a rescue out of what they had. And they saved 338,000 lives. ## A lesson for brands that care We’ve discussed the work of Douglas Holt and his theory about how brands become icons — not big brands, or merely successful brands, but _iconic_ brands, the ones that define an era and outlive it. His conclusion is simple. They side with the counterculture. Every time. Not every countercultural brand is iconic, but every iconic brand has at one point or another enabled the cause of rebellion. Consider Levi Strauss. Blue jeans were workwear. Tough pants for laborers and miners. The bohemians of the 1950s and the rebels of the 1960s adopted them precisely because jeans were the opposite of the gray flannel suit — the uniform of the institutional order they were rejecting. Levi's didn't invent the counterculture. The counterculture picked Levi's off the shelf. Levi Strauss & Co. had the sense to see what was happening and lean into it instead of running from it. They crossed over. They sided with the rebellion. And they became the most iconic brand in their segment of the twentieth century. Volkswagen did the same. As did Harley-Davidson. That's how it always works. The brand doesn't create the rebellion. The rebellion adopts the brand, and the brand has a choice. Cross over, or get left behind. Here is something to think about: can you name a single brand — one — that became iconic by fighting the counterculture of its moment? I can't either. When has that ever been a winning strategy? The brands that clung to the old order in every previous cultural shift are either forgotten or became business school cautionary tales. The winners saw the energy, recognized the shift, and crossed over. ## You can only cross over to a counterculture you can _see_. And you won’t see it if you’re looking for the trappings of the last one. The last counterculture was loud, visual, chaotic. It showed up on the news. You could see it coming. This one is quiet. Polite. Orderly. It looks like someone repairing a dishwasher and growing tomatoes and choosing quality over quantity. It doesn't march. It doesn't protest. It builds. And it is invisible to every instrument you have, because your instruments were designed to detect signal, and this counterculture's defining move is _the absence of signal_. ## The rebels are out there. They are ahead of you. They are already living by their principles. And they are not waiting for your marketing campaign. They are not waiting for your sustainability report. They are waiting for you to _join them_. The polarity has flipped. The institutions bring chaos. The counterculture responds with order — in the form of craft, durability, sovereignty, and care. They are building a life that doesn't depend on systems that have stopped caring. That is the counterculture of this moment. It is where the energy is. It is where the iconic brands of the next era will come from — the ones with the sense to cross over. The only question is whether you can see it. And if you can — whether you have the courage to cross. > _Are you a punk?_ * * * This piece sits at a confluence point in the _On the Bubble_ series. If you have been reading along, you may recognize threads from earlier essays now woven into a single argument: _Leadership in the Time of Enshittification_ introduced institutional entropy and the space between chaos and manufactured order. This essay flips that framework outward — from diagnosis to portrait. _The Supply Mirage_ argued that the circular economy plan was always supply-side, and that it failed. This essay asks: if supply-side transformation cannot generate circularity, what does the demand side look like? The conscious non-consumer is one answer. _Empathy Is a Strategic Capacity_ identified empathy as the capability most needed for imaginative, disruptive innovation. This essay shows why: without it, you cannot perceive a counterculture that communicates through absence rather than signal. _Dunkirk Spirit and Circular Transformation_ developed the Little Ships metaphor at length. Here it serves as illustration, not argument. The full treatment lives in that earlier essay. _Maintenance Is a First Principle_ described what today's punks actually _do_ — the practices of care, repair, and stewardship. If "Are You a Punk?" is the cultural frame, Stewart Brand's"On Maintenance" is the field guide. _Transformative Ends, Incremental Means?_ covered Zeno's Paradox — the asymptotic failure of incremental supply-side improvement — at length. That structural impossibility is the reason the counterculture exists: they can see the paradox playing out, even if they wouldn't use that language. And looking ahead: once a brand crosses over, the next question is: what does it look like on the other side? What does it feel like to build something the quiet ones would choose? That is where we are going. * * * _On the Bubble is a_ Circudyne Letter _series taking stock of the macro transition to circularity. Subscribe to follow the full series._ * * * ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 23/02/2026
In a performance economy, the product is a vessel. The software is the spirit. What happens when the spirit departs?
circudyne.com
Vendor Dependency and the Loveless Long-Term Relationship
The circular economy asks companies to build goods that last. But a durable good in the performance economy is a software-defined good, and a software-defined good lives only as long as its maker keeps the lights on. What happens when the maker walks away? * Vendor Dependency and the Loveless Long-Term Relationship * The spirit departs * The covenant problem * Two kinds of failure * Durability is a joint function * The mythology of staying * Designing for the covenant * The customer will know * PRACTITIONER INSIGHTS * SOURCES ## The spirit departs On January 31st of this year, Belkin shut down its Wemo cloud services. Overnight, millions of smart home devices lost the features that made them worth buying. Remote access, voice assistant integrations, app control: gone. Devices sold as recently as 2023 became, in the language of the industry, "bricked." Belkin isn't bankrupt. It simply decided that Wemo was no longer worth maintaining. After years of declining investment and ceasing new product development, the company reallocated resources elsewhere in its portfolio, and its customers absorbed the cost. The Fisker Ocean tells a darker version of the same story. When Fisker filed for bankruptcy in June 2024, roughly 7,500 owners of a $70,000 software-defined electric vehicle found themselves orphaned. No factory support. No software updates. No warranty. No one to pick up the phone. What followed was a year-long scramble. A company called American Lease bought the remaining Fisker inventory and struck a deal to maintain cloud services, only to discover the vehicle data couldn't be ported to new servers. A second deal was negotiated for $2.5 million. Fisker owners formed their own nonprofit association. Then American Lease and the owners' association fell into a billing dispute, and the services were cut off again. A subsequent software update bricked ten percent of the cars it was supposed to fix. 🏺 In the performance economy, the product is a vessel. The software, the data relationship, the ongoing service are the animating spirit. When the vendor disappears or simply loses interest, you are left with an expensive, inert object. As of now, Fisker Ocean owners can still drive their cars and charge them. But the connected features that justified the premium and constituted the product's ongoing relationship with its maker are gone. The vehicle remains. The spirit has departed. ## The covenant problem These are structural vulnerabilities of how software-defined products work. The performance economy, introduced by Swiss economist Walter Stahel, holds that the value of products should be captured through their performance, not their ownership. Sell use, not objects. Retain ownership. Internalize maintenance. This realignment of incentives is the circular economy's most powerful structural idea: it makes the producer responsible for the full life of the good, which means less wasteful production, longer product lives, and closed material loops. In B2B markets, the logic is already mainstream. For consumer products, adoption is slower and harder, because consumers take comfort from ownership and resist the subscription models that performance economics tend to produce. But the direction is clear. The performance economy is how circularity scales. Which makes its central vulnerability all the more urgent to resolve. In the performance economy, the product is a vessel. The software, the data relationship, the ongoing service are the animating spirit. When the vendor disappears or simply loses interest, you are left with an expensive, inert object. A car that can't update. A switch that can't be controlled. A thing that has become a burden. Joy, which we've explored in this letter as the secret ingredient of the circular century, is what you get when a durable good is also a loved good: when the relationship between user and object, and between consumer and producer, is warm, intentional, and aligned. Vendor dependency is the dark mirror of that joy. It is what happens when a product promises a relationship and then breaks the promise through bankruptcy, acquisition, strategic pivot, or neglect. The customer is left in a long-term relationship with something that has stopped caring. The performance economy asks us to trust that the relationship will last at least as long as the product. This is a covenant. And right now, almost nobody is designing for it. ## Two kinds of failure The Belkin and Fisker cases represent different failure modes, and the distinction matters for anyone designing circular solutions. Fisker is a _capital_ failure. A startup that burned through its funding before it could sustain the ecosystem its product required. The VC model that funded it was optimized for rapid growth and exit, not for the multi-decade support obligations that come with selling a car. When the capital ran out, so did the covenant. This is particularly sobering for companies like Impulse Labs, whose battery-equipped, software-defined induction cooktop depends on ongoing first-party support to deliver its most differentiating features. Impulse is building something remarkable: a consumer appliance that doubles as permissionless energy infrastructure. But the brilliance of the product deepens the covenant it implies. Customers are buying more than a cooktop; they're subscribing to a vision of distributed energy that requires the company to be around, updating firmware, maintaining integrations, honoring the promise embedded in the object. The Belkin case is a _commitment_ failure. An established company with ample resources that chose to walk away from a product line because maintaining it was no longer a strategic priority. No one went bankrupt. The resources existed. The will didn't. This is, if anything, the more troubling pattern. Startups flame out, and we accept that, however painfully. But when an incumbent with a billion-dollar parent company decides that the cloud services underlying your light switches aren't worth the server costs, you confront a different kind of betrayal. The product didn't fail. The promise did. ## Durability is a joint function The durability of a performance economy good is not a property of the object alone. It is a joint function of two things: the physical durability of the good (how long it can keep performing its core function) and the durability of the relationship (how long the vendor can and will sustain the animating software, service, and care). Joy requires both. A loveless long-term relationship, whether with a partner, an institution, or a product, is not neutral. It is a tax. Time, attention, and money spent on something that neither delights nor serves, but which you cannot easily leave. 🔌 It's the latest form of planned obsolescence. The product doesn't break. The promise does. This is what makes vendor dependency a circularity problem, not merely a consumer protection problem. The entire premise of circular design is extending the useful life of goods. But if the useful life of a software-defined good is bounded by the vendor's attention span rather than the product's physical durability, we haven't solved the problem. We've moved it. It's the latest form of planned obsolescence. The product doesn't break. The promise does. ## The mythology of staying Douglas Holt's research on cultural branding reveals something important about the companies that earn lasting loyalty. In what Holt calls "myth markets," brands don't compete on features or price. They compete on their ability to resolve a tension people feel between how they live and how they aspire to live. The brands that win these markets become icons, and they do so by speaking with what Holt describes as a "rebel's voice," drawing on the credibility of people who actually live according to alternative ideals rather than merely borrowing their trappings. What makes a rebel voice credible? Holt is clear: it requires an intimate and authentic relationship with the world the brand claims to represent. You cannot mimic the language and expect to be believed. _You have to inhabit the commitment._ 🏴 What makes a rebel voice credible? Holt is clear: it requires an intimate and authentic relationship with the world the brand claims to represent. You cannot mimic the language and expect to be believed. __You have to inhabit the commitment.__ In the circular economy, the mythology gap is vast. People want regeneration over extraction, abundance over scarcity, connection over isolation. As Hugo Warner and I have written, nearly a third of the consumer market is waiting to buy from companies that demonstrate genuine commitment to sustainability, held back not by indifference but by uncertainty about whether the commitment is real. Hugo and I identified them as "conscious non-consumers": a dormant segment whose activation may represent the single greatest lever for consumer-facing business growth. 🌱 Hugo and I identified them as "conscious non-consumers": a dormant segment whose activation may represent the single greatest lever for consumer-facing business growth. Unlocking these consumers requires what Holt would recognize as cultural leadership. Not green claims on packaging or Panglossian sustainability reports. A brand that leads culture, as Holt argues, creates "charismatic visions of the world to make sense of confusing societal changes." The rebel act in the circular economy is not adding a recycling program to an otherwise linear business. The rebel act is _staying_. Committing to the product's full life. Keeping the software alive. Honoring the covenant when it would be cheaper, quarter by quarter, to let it lapse. When a company makes that commitment legible, it reads as identity. Conscious non-consumers don't need more data about carbon offsets. They need to see a company that, by its behavior, resolves the tension between how they live (surrounded by disposable, unsupported products) and how they want to live (in relationship with things that last and makers who care). That is how first-movers in longevity commitments earn brand equity. The mythology of staying accumulates over time, the way trust accumulates in any real relationship. The company that can point to a decade of honoring its covenant possesses cultural authority that no marketing campaign can manufacture after the fact. Leadership, in this sense, includes knowing when and how to stay, and making succession clear when circumstances require transition. ## Designing for the covenant The answer cannot be "no more software-defined products." Software definition is how modern performance economy goods deliver ongoing value, adapt to users, and improve over time. The problem is the absence of structural assurances that the relationship will be honored. For the performance economy to earn its promise, it must assure the relationship. That means: **Longevity commitments.** Service lives that match product lives. If you sell a cooktop built to last twenty years, your firmware commitment should be legible in those same terms. The EU's emerging right-to-repair frameworks signal where regulation is heading, but the brands that get ahead of regulation, and stay ahead of it, will earn trust that compliance alone cannot. **Graceful degradation.** If the cloud goes away, the product should still work at its core function. Some Belkin Wemo devices survived the shutdown because they operated locally through Thread, the mesh networking standard, and continued performing basic switching and sensing tasks. But survival through a third-party protocol is different from a graceful exit by the maker. A genuine commitment would have looked like a final firmware upgrade to Matter, the broader interoperability standard built on Thread, giving every Wemo device a home in the wider smart home ecosystem before the lights went out. **Succession architecture.** Open firmware. Escrow agreements. Interoperability standards. Structural provisions that allow a community, a successor company, or the customer to sustain the product if the original maker cannot. The Fisker Owners Association is building this retroactively, at great cost and pain. It should have been designed in from the start. **Transparent intent.** Being clear about what happens if circumstances change. Not buried in terms of service, but communicated as a feature of the brand relationship. ## The customer will know Walt Disney and his Imagineering lead John Hench shared a conviction about what they called "the architecture of reassurance": the idea that designed environments communicate care through coherence, and that every detail, even ones the visitor never consciously notices, contributes to whether the experience feels trustworthy. Hench once questioned whether Disney had gone too far with the leather-strap suspension on Main Street's stagecoaches, an authentic period detail that no guest would consciously identify. "People aren't going to get this," he told Walt. "It is too much perfection." Disney's answer was immediate: "Yes, they will. They will feel good about it. And they will understand that it's all done for them." Steve Jobs learned a version of the same principle from his father, Paul, while building a fence around the family home in Mountain View. Paul insisted that the back of the fence be finished with the same care as the front. When young Steve asked why, since nobody would ever see it, Paul's answer was plain: _you will know._ Jobs carried that conviction through his entire career. He insisted that the circuit boards inside a Macintosh be beautiful, that the unseen interior of the machine reflect the same standard as the screen the user touched. These two stories converge on a single insight. Walt's stagecoach suspension and Steve's fence both say: the care you invest in the parts the customer cannot _see_ is the care the customer can _feel_. This is the deepest argument for the vendor covenant. Establishing the commitment to keep the spirit alive for the duration of a product's physical life is the back-office equivalent of finishing the back of the fence. It is the operational infrastructure that customers will never see: the capital structure decisions, the firmware maintenance budgets, the succession provisions. And the customer will know. Not because they audit your server uptime. Because they feel good about the purchase, or they don't. Because they trust you, or they don't. Because something in the product's bearing, in the company's posture, communicates whether the relationship is built to last. Rivian is an interesting case here. The company has topped Consumer Reports' owner satisfaction survey for three consecutive years, with 86% of owners saying they would buy from the brand again, even as Rivian ranks near the bottom for predicted reliability and continues to operate at a significant loss. By any conventional analysis, this loyalty is irrational. The vehicles have problems. The company hasn't turned a profit. The service network can't keep pace with demand. And yet. Owners report _feeling_ something. A sense that Rivian is in it for the long run. That the people making the vehicle care about the relationship with the people driving it. The VW joint venture, the expanding Adventure Network, the over-the-air updates that keep arriving: Rivian cares about the back of the fence. Their structural decisions communicate covenant without saying the word. How do I know Rivian has this right? I don't. Nobody can be certain about the long-term durability of any company's commitment. But as Walt explained to Hench: I _feel_ good about it. And that feeling, far more than any spec sheet or warranty card, is what the performance economy must learn to earn. ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 09/02/2026
This post was inspired in part by a recent quote by @asymco@mastodon.social of Christensen: "We squander what is plentiful, and husband what is scarce." The thorough commoditization of the building blocks of sustaining innovation is imminent […]
circudyne.com
Original post on circudyne.com
012
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 02/02/2026
Why your strategy's relationship with "stuff" determines its limits
circudyne.com
Maintenance Is a First Principle
<p>Stewart Brand's new book advances a simple thesis: how we care for our stuff determines our fate.</p><p>The <em>Whole Earth Catalog</em> publisher and Long Now Foundation founder has written an authoritative treatment of an elemental idea. In this letter we draw out what it means for product, service, and business model strategy.</p><ul><li><a href="#maintenance-is-a-first-principle">Maintenance Is a First Principle</a><ul><li><a href="#the-paradox-persists-by-design">The Paradox Persists by Design</a></li><li><a href="#maintenance-conserves">Maintenance Conserves</a></li><li><a href="#the-progression">The Progression</a></li><li><a href="#the-loop-must-close">The Loop Must Close</a></li><li><a href="#five-diagnostic-questions">Five Diagnostic Questions</a></li><li><a href="#practitioner-insights">Practitioner Insights</a></li></ul></li></ul><p><a href="https://press.stripe.com/maintenance-part-one" rel="noreferrer"><em>Maintenance: Of Everything—Part One</em></a> opens with a quote from Pete Seeger: </p><blockquote>“You should consider that the essential art of civilization is maintenance.”</blockquote><p>Brand presents his thesis as a paradox.</p><blockquote>"Maintenance is absolutely necessary <em>and</em> maintenance is optional."</blockquote><p>The stakes are high. “[Maintenance] is easy to put off, yet it has to be done. Defer now, regret later. Neglect kills."</p><p>He resolves this paradox with what he refers to as a “softening” of perspective.</p><p>"Let 'maintenance' mean <strong><em>the whole grand process</em></strong> [my emphasis] of keeping a thing going. From that perspective, occasional repair is part of the process. Close monitoring is part of the process. Changing the oil is part of the process. Eventually replacing the whole thing is part of the process."</p><p>Circularity demands we account for (and promote) <em>the whole grand process</em>.</p><h2 id="the-paradox-persists-by-design">The Paradox Persists by Design</h2><p>How does something "absolutely necessary" remain "optional"?</p><p>Because it’s compulsory under the linear economy.</p><p>In a linear model, value is captured at the point of sale. What happens after—use, care, repair, disposal—belongs to someone else: the customer, or the repair shop, or the landfill, or the atmosphere.</p><p>That is the business model.</p><p>As industries "mature," any necessary thing that cannot be directly monetized gets externalized. The return on maintenance is indirect. It requires ongoing management. It incurs costs without generating immediate results.</p><p>So it gets pushed outside the model's boundary.</p><p>Deferred maintenance is an externality. And the circular economy abhors externalities.</p><h2 id="maintenance-conserves">Maintenance Conserves</h2><p>Brand cites the work of two contemporary philosophers who share a common medium: motorcycle maintenance.</p><p>Robert Pirsig rode his motorcycle across America and wrote <em>Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.</em> Observes Brand: "He had to acquire a certain nondivided relationship between mechanic and motorcycle, a craftsmanlike feeling for the work." The essence of that relationship, Pirsig found, is <em>caring.</em></p><p>Matthew Crawford left a think tank to open a motorcycle repair shop and wrote <em>Shop Class as Soulcraft.</em> His insight was the same. Thinking and making, using and maintaining—these are not separate activities. They are one activity, artificially divided.</p><p>Both men found joy by internalizing the process of maintenance.</p><p>Brand finds a commonality in their approach: "Tidiness, like cleanliness, is a social signal, as much to oneself as to others. It's visible evidence that something is respected."</p><p><a href="https://www.circudyne.com/tag/marie-kondo/" rel="noreferrer">Marie Kondo</a> would say that the signal also moves in another direction: to and from the object itself.</p><p><a href="https://www.circudyne.com/sparking-joy-the-secret-ingredient-of-the-circular-century/" rel="noreferrer">She points out that the energy between owner and beloved object is joy.</a> But joy requires relationship. And relationship requires <em>the whole grand process</em>—not a fragment of it.</p><p>The linear economy promises convenience by externalizing maintenance. What it delivers is alienation. From our objects. From the systems that produce them. From the consequences of their disposal.</p><h2 id="the-progression">The Progression</h2><p>Brand traces the history of vehicle maintenance from Rolls-Royce to Tesla. The progression is revealing:</p><p><strong>Object.</strong> Rolls-Royce built machines of such craftsmanship that only specialists could maintain them. The relationship was between artisan and artifact. Beautiful, but unscalable.</p><p><strong>Components.</strong> Ford's Model T introduced interchangeable parts. Maintenance became democratized. Anyone with a wrench could replace what broke. An ecosystem grew around the platform—including the hot rod culture that transformed the act of repair into an expression of joyful self-reliance.</p><p><strong>System.</strong> Tesla integrated software and hardware into a unified whole. Maintenance became invisible: over-the-air updates, predictive diagnostics, data-driven optimization. Brand notes that by 2011, the auto industry was "enormous, intensely competitive, and asleep." Car manufacturing had become "highly efficient and perfectionist but also conservative." Sound familiar?</p><p><strong>Relationship.</strong> Brand’s progression can be extended further. Consider analyst <a href="https://stratechery.com/2024/taking-waymo-uber-and-waymo/" rel="noreferrer">Ben Thompson’s account of his first Waymo ride</a>. The car greeted him by name. It explained the process. It dropped him off with a cheery "Happy Friday."</p><p>"I felt a twinge of—what is this?!—sadness as it drove away," Thompson wrote. "I felt like I had just made a new friend."</p><p>Thompson didn't maintain the Waymo. He didn't own it. Yet the experience of it filled him with joy. Someone, somewhere, had designed Waymo’s <em>whole grand process</em> with care. The maintenance was invisible, but its effects were palpable: the car worked, it was clean, it remembered him.</p><p>The Relationship stage separates the <em>act</em> of maintenance from the <em>experience</em> of its benefits. But it preserves the emotional resonance.</p><h2 id="the-loop-must-close">The Loop Must Close</h2><p>Here is where circular economy thinking completes the progression.</p><p>Pirsig, Crawford, and Brand show that relationship comes from engaging with the <em>whole grand process</em>. But the answer is not simply "more maintenance." That would be ideology, not strategy. Not to mention laborious.</p><p>The answer is that maintenance must be <em>designed from the beginning</em>—as a first-class citizen in product strategy, service strategy, and business model strategy.</p><p>Lean manufacturing's limitation was not its principles. It was its boundaries. Lean optimized brilliantly within factory walls, value chains narrowly defined. But those walls permitted everything outside them to be someone else's problem. Lean could coexist with planned obsolescence because end-of-life was beyond its jurisdiction.</p><p><a href="https://www.circudyne.com/circularity-is-lean-2-0/" rel="noreferrer">Circular economy extends the jurisdiction.</a> The value chain stretches far enough—upstream to design, downstream to end-of-use—that nothing gets externalized. When you cannot push maintenance outside the model, you must design for it from the start.</p><p>The right maintenance posture depends on what the object calls for. A cast iron skillet calls for seasoning. A Waymo calls for fleet operations. The burden may be high or nearly zero. What matters is that the choice is deliberate. The value is captured or shared fairly. And the relationship remains intact.</p><p>Your view on maintenance will determine how much circularity potential exists in your enterprise.</p><div class="gh-paid-content-notice"><h3>This post is for subscribers only</h3><p>Become a member to get access to all content</p><a class="gh-paid-content-cta" href="https://www.circudyne.com/maintenance-is-a-first-principle/#/portal/signup">Subscribe now</a></div>
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 26/01/2026
circudyne.com
From Managers to Diplomats
Managing within a system in decline is a form of denial.
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 12/01/2026
circudyne.com
Leadership in the Time of Enshittification
Why do rigidly managed systems so often end in decay? A closer look at enshittification, linear logic, and why this moment calls for leadership.
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 05/01/2026
circudyne.com
The Supply Mirage
Circularity was built for a moment of expected scarcity. What happens when that pressure never fully arrives — and what must change as a result?
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 29/12/2025
circudyne.com
A Circudyne Odyssey
Closing out a season tracing a constellation of thinkers and ideas behind circular transformation — sharpening how we see perception, storytelling, and imagination, and preparing the ground for a harder question: what circularity must now deliver.
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 22/12/2025
circudyne.com
McLuhan, Perception, and the Role of Brands Today
Marshall McLuhan argued that experience shapes behavior before understanding. In a moment defined by overload and institutional fatigue, this letter explores what that insight means for brands, and why helping people see has become their responsibility.
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 15/12/2025
circudyne.com
You Don't Need Better Storytellers
Stories begin with choices. Without internal coherence, even the best storytelling can’t help us imagine, or choose, the future we need.
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 08/12/2025
circudyne.com
"Something Goes Wrong!"
We’ve absorbed decades of stories that teach us to wait for the break: build a world, then watch it fall, because “something goes wrong!” is where the meaning begins. Tales of the Circular Century require a different rhythm. “Perfect Days” reveals the quiet power of a world that holds.
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 01/12/2025
circudyne.com
Closing the Mythology Gap
When the world changes faster than our stories, organizations lose coherence and momentum. This Letter shows how Joseph Campbell, George Lucas, and Coca-Cola demonstrated the deeper work of cultural renewal — and what it means to become fit for purpose in the Circular Century.
020
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 24/11/2025
circudyne.com
Dunkirk Spirit and Circular Transformation
Like the Royal Navy at Dunkirk, today's corporations are unfit for the task. Circular transformation needs 1,000 small boats, not one big ship. What's yours?
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 17/11/2025
circudyne.com
Toward Imagination
Scientific management made imagination possible. Then it made imagination impossible.
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 10/11/2025
circudyne.com
The Overview Effect: An Objective Moral Context for the Circular Century
Astronauts who've seen Earth from space—Cold Warriors and Captain Kirk alike—report the same truth: we live in Eden. That fact will reshape what we accept.
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 03/11/2025
circudyne.com
Sparking Joy: The Secret Ingredient of the Circular Century
Marie Kondo taught us how to part with what doesn’t spark joy. Circularity challenges us to build a world where everything does. What if joy isn’t just an outcome—but the compass for transformation itself?
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 27/10/2025
circudyne.com
Beyond Organizational Charts: Why Self-Disruption Requires Vision, Culture, and Values
What practitioners miss about Christensen's self-disruption theory—and why it matters for scaling circular innovation
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 13/10/2025
circudyne.com
From Milkshakes To Meaning
Clay Christensen showed us how to understand consumer preference beyond the A|B test. That key unlocks product-market fit for the Circular Century.
000
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 06/10/2025
circudyne.com
"What Would Have To Be True?"
You cannot A|B test your way to system change. Why circular transformation requires asking 'What Would Have to Be True?' instead of 'How Might We?'
010
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 29/09/2025
circudyne.com
Introduction to Circudyne
Wrapping up our first quarterly series exploring circular transformation as systematic competitive advantage. What it takes for brands to think broader, look further, and summon the courage to build a future for everyone to look forward to.
011
Circudyne @christian.circudyne.com.ap.brid.gy · 22/09/2025
circudyne.com
The Road to a Circular Future Runs Through Brands
What would it mean for brands win the Circular Century? To give themselves permission to use their imaginations. To imagine a world where circularity is not a cost center but a differentiator. To give people something to build a dream on.
010