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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

To address this there are two questions the party needs to answer at a national brand level: 1) What change do the Lib Dems want to see? 2) Why should someone actively want to vote Lib Dem? (Beyond simply wanting to beat the Tories/Reform/Labour)

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

All seven of our segments say the party represents more of the same. Think this is why the party has struggled to benefit from Labour's downfall - even in second place areas. Disgruntled progressives will skip tactically voting Lib Dem and vote Green if they don't think the LDs represent change.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

But in the absence of the intensive campaigning needed to change this door by door, it greatly limits the pool of voters available to the party. For example - clear majorities of Green, Reform and Conservative voters think the party represents more of the same.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

But just one in five (21%) voters believe the Lib Dems represent change - only marginally more than the proportion believing the Tories represent change. As the results show, hardworking ground campaigning can clearly alter this at the local level.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

I think the Lib Dems' lack of a change narrative is behind this. We continue to find that Britons are desperate for change at More in Common - have a look through some of our pre-elections qual. People voted for change again last week. bsky.app/profile/luke...

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

The bad: All seats lost in Gosport, not the progress hoped for in Merton, and no real gains in the most progressive areas where Labour has collapsed as things stand. Equally - a smattering of losses in areas less demographically favourable e.g. Hull, Rochford.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

The good: Exceptionally strong results in Richmond, Sutton, South Cambridgeshire and Surrey.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

With the full results in from Thursday it does like it was a mixed bag for the Lib Dems - great results in areas where they are strong, not so good elsewhere. To use a metaphor - they have torn down the Blue Wall, but have they built trenches around it which they can't get out of? 👇🧵

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

This strategy worked okay in 2024. But the majority gained was extremely fragile leaving little room for any more shedding of votes. In just one constituency, Gorton & Denton shows the risk for Labour of simultaneously losing progressives, Muslims and 'Red Wall' style voters.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

But this by-election is about Labour. The political strategy of Starmerism/McSweeneyism has been a willingness to shed some voters (progressives and Muslims) in the pursuit of other voters (Middle England and Red Wall.)

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

The Tories and Lib Dems were always going to be squeezed in this by-election but I also think this reinforces their need for a clearer national message as to why voters should back them in seats they can't win - i.e. one which goes beyond we can beat Reform/Labour.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

For Reform, this reinforces that if they're seen as extreme they risk not only losing votes but motivating the coalescing and turnout of voters opposed to them. Think selecting Goodwin in a seat with a high Muslim population is this 'seesaw' in operation. x.com/chris_annous...

x.com

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Labour is clearly continuing to shed Muslim voters despite the salience of Gaza falling slightly post-ceasefire. This breakdown in support among one of their historical core bases is about more than just Gaza - like the Red Wall's collapse was about more than just Brexit.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

For two years my colleagues have been arguing that Labour's collapse in support among British Muslim voters is about more than just Gaza, it's about a feeling of being taken for granted for too long. x.com/edhodgsoned/...

x.com

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

This has important implications for analysing May's Council election results - we should expect the Greens to do well but given how low turnout is likely to be, even if they do slightly underperform expectations, it doesn't mean their uptick in support isn't real.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

The Greens were clear winners. Some have argued poor council by-election showings suggest their uptick in the polls isn't real. But think their surge on an above GE turnout reinforces our data which suggests they do best among low propensity voters.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Gorton and Denton serves as a microcosm of Labour's fragmenting electoral base with young progressives, Muslim voters and 'Red Wall' style voters abandoning them in one constituency 🧵

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

But the political link is strong. A majority of reality TV watching Green voters think BAME contestants are treated less favourably by fellow cast members. But Reform voters believe BAME contestants are actually treated *more* favourably than white contestants.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

It's a similar story for reality TV more broadly. Only 26% of reality TV watchers think ethnic minority contestants are treated less favourably by their fellow cast members and just 22% say the same for audience members voting in public votes.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

Views correlate with politics - two fifths of Tory & Reform voting Traitors viewers say BAME contestants aren't more likely to be voted off early. In contrast - two fifths of Green voting viewers think the early banishments are due to unconscious bias.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

A third (36%) outright reject the view that BAME contestants are more likely to be voted off with another fifth (19%) acknowledging the pattern but saying it is not due to unconscious bias. Only 30% say unconscious bias is leading to early banishments of BAME contestants.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

It's Traitors final day - so some new polling! There's been a lot of discourse over the fact that ethnic minority (BAME) contestants are more likely to be banished earlier in the show. But most Traitors viewers do *not* think unconscious bias is affecting outcomes 🧵

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

FWIW our January MRP has the seat as essentially a three-way battle between Labour, Reform and the Greens. Though pre-coalition the Liberal Democrats had historical strength in the constituency so will be interesting to see if they roll out the by-election machine...

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

If the writ is moved soon we'd expect the by-election to be held just as the formal devolved and local election campaigns kick off. Can see why Labour are keen to have the by-election held on the same day as local elections but that does create a long by-election campaign...

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

We've written a lot about how Labour's vote is fracturing in three directions: - Progressives to LD/Green - 'Red-Wally' to Reform - Muslims to 'Gaza Independents' Think Gorton represents a microcosm of all three dynamics and a by-election will put this under a magnifying glass.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

If this does proceed to a by-election, think it could be one of the messiest in history: Not only the Burnham factor but also at the GE: - Reform performed in line with their national share - A strong Green showing - Workers Party won 10% of the vote in this 30% Muslim seat 1/3

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

As we've outlined before, the lack of a Green uptick in support at council by-elections may not be an indicator of polling errors but rather the much lower propensity of their coalition to vote - which will harm them in lower turnout council by-elections.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

In a ward with a decent student population, where they finished second last time, you might hope for a better result for Greens than this. Still not seeing much of a Green surge in local council by-elections yet, but... 1/2

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 13/07/2025

If you haven’t done so already, have a go at our super short quiz to see what segment you are in our new model. The segments capture worldviews really powerfully so it’s illuminating to see how your values differ from other Britons. (A prize if you can guess my segment!)

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Reposted by Chris Annous

Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Could going hard on environmental issues help the Liberal Democrats retain the Blue Wall at the next election? Our new report, based on one of the most in-depth analyses of Lib Dem voter attitudes to the environment, suggests it could. A🧵of the key charts 👇🏼

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Thanks Dave - there's lots more detail and insights in the actual report if you have a chance to read that!

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Yes this really came out in the focus groups - the actual report goes into much more depth on this!

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

There's much more analysis in the full report so please do read it and let me know your thoughts👇🏼 t.co/vmNHsMdeEB

t.co

https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/green-foundations-liberal-democrats-and-the-environment/

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

The conjoint experiment found increasing awareness of Lib Dems environmental policies could be a significantly stronger driver of votes to the party than their more prominent anti-President Trump positioning. This is the case for existing Lib Dem voters and voters as a whole.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

To robustly assess the potential electoral benefits of bold environmental positioning for the Liberal Democrats - we ran a policy conjoint experiment, comparing it with other potential dividing lines for the party with Labour.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Both of these policies garnered strong support in our focus group conversations. Our Liberal Democrat voters, particularly in North Cornwall, held deep anger towards water companies' perceived profiteering. They were also perplexed as to why so few homes had solar panels.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Two clear winners emerged: 1)Protecting the Water Restoration Fund so water company fines are ringfenced for nature improvements. 2)Tightening the Future Homes Standard so solar panels and heat pumps are mandated on new build homes.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Landing media coverage is a real challenge for the Lib Dems. One way of getting it is through stunts. Another is having genuinely distinct and substantive policies to push. We tested some of the party's bolder and more distinctive environmental policies to see which land best.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Low awareness of the party's environmental policies looks to be driving this failure - knowledge of Lib Dem environmental positions is even worse than knowledge of their positions in other policy areas. This is driving perceptions the party doesn't prioritise the environment.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

However, the Lib Dems are not currently seizing this opportunity. Their own voters put the party only slightly ahead of the Green Party on environmental issues and they trail far behind among the general public more broadly.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

There is a real opening for the Lib Dems to position themselves as the strongest major party on environmental issues. Lib Dem voters, and Britons more generally, think both the previous and current government's environmental record is poor - particularly on sewage pollution.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Lib Dem voters also don't believe there is a trade-off between action to protect local nature and the environment at the global level. Instead, they see the two as reinforcing each other.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Liberal Democrat MPs also don't need to worry about being seen to be spending too much time campaigning on environmental issues over more bread and butter issues. Lib Dem voters say they would respond positively to seeing their local MP raise environmental issues in Parliament.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

There is also no need for the party's MPs to engage in environmental NIMBYISM. Lib Dem voters say they would feel more negatively towards their local MP if they opposed a, hypothetical, solar farm project in their constituency on the grounds of protecting local green spaces.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Lib Dem voters are also significantly more willing to incur costs to support environmental action - providing Ed Davey with greater scope to be bold on environmental issues than other party leaders.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Lib Dem voters also see the environment as an important electoral issue. Asked for the top reasons for voting for the party - a third of Lib Dem voters select at least one environmental issue, making it the biggest single driver of votes to the party.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

From our focus groups of Lib Dem voters in Wokingham and North Cornwall - it became clear that Lib Dem voters see tackling the environment as a moral issue. The conversations revealed an emotional attachment to nature - particularly at the local level.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

The environment is a real priority for Lib Dem voters - they are nearly twice as likely than Britons overall to say climate change and the environment is one of the top issues facing Britain today.

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Chris Annous @chrisannous.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

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