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Chris Nabholz

@chris-nabholz.bsky.social
345 followers 1.1K following 461 posts

Engineer and meteorologist. Alumni of Auburn, NC State, and Mississippi State Universities. US Navy veteran.

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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 6h
A couple of links for those able to watch. Alabama Weather Network SkyCams: alabamaweathernetwork.com/skycams/ Alabama's Real-Time Coastal Observing System: www.disl.edu/arcos/
alabamaweathernetwork.com
SkyCams | Alabama Weather Network
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 6h
The sun rises on major hurricane Isaias, now with 120 mph sustained winds.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 9h
1/2 As of 4 a.m. (Oct 9th) Isaias is nearing major hurricane strength with 110 mph winds. The updated forecast calls for the storm to continue to strengthen to a 120 mph category 3 storm and make landfall as a strong category 2 storm.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 16h
1/2 The 10 p.m. update has Isaias a little stronger at 105 mph. The track forecast is virtually the same, but the intensity forecast now has the storm reaching major hurricane (category 3) strength briefly with 115 mph winds around mid morning tomorrow,...
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 22h
The storm developed a fairly distinct eye for the first time, with strong convection wrapping nearly all the way around the circulation. Further strengthening is forecast, but the storm will now start running into increasing wind shear which should limit how strong it gets.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 22h
1/2 Here is the Oct. 8th 4 p.m. advisory for Hurricane Isaias. The storm is now a 100 mph category 2 hurricane, which was expected from previous forecasts. The track moved to the east some based on updated model guidance and is now directly over Pensacola Beach.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Here is my latest write-up on Hurricane Isaias and the expected hazards from the storm. I don't expect the forecast to change too much from here on out, but I'll provide updates as needed. I'm always glad to answer any questions: dswx.substack.com/p/hurricane-...
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Here is the 10 a.m. update on Thur Oct 8th for Hurricane Isaias. There were no significant changes to the track or intensity forecast. The storm was a bit stronger, up to 85 mph, and may be entering a period of more rapid intensification. I will have a full update soon.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Isaias was upgraded to a hurricane at about 10:30 p.m. last night. As of the 4 a.m. advisory, the storm has 80 mph winds. There has been little to no change to the track and intensity forecast.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Big error on my part, I shared the 1 p.m. advisory graphic and not the 4 p.m. graphic. Attached is the correct forecast.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Here’s the 4 p.m. Advisory for Isaias. A slight nudge of the track to the east again, and an inland expansion of the watch areas, but otherwise the forecast is unchanged from earlier. The storm has strengthened slightly and will continue to do so, but no signs so far of rapid intensification.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Getting to some of the other hazards, tornadoes will be possible Friday and Saturday. Flash flooding will be possible and a fairly large area can expect to see rainfall amounts up to or exceeding 6”
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
1/2 Here’s the 10 a.m. advisory for Tropical Storm Isaias. The storm strengthened just a little since 4 a.m. The track has been adjusted to the east a bit more, and is now right along the AL/FL border.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
TD 9 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaias as of the 4 a.m. advisory. The track has been shifted east a bit and the maximum intensity has been increased to 110 mph, a high-end category 2. Some of the 06z models suggest and even stronger storm is possible.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
First forecast on TD 9/ future Hurricane Isaias. Max winds of 100 mph expected, a moderate category 2.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The NHC will begin advisories on TD 9 at 4 p.m. CDT. Here is the latest, but will lack the forecast cone that will be issued soon: dswx.substack.com/p/tropical-d...
dswx.substack.com
Tropical Development Expected in the Gulf
Invest 92L likely to become a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Isaias soon; potential hurricane impacts increasingly likely along the northern Gulf Coast.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
1/3 Chances of development for 92L are up to 90% this morning and a tropical depression should form soon. The trend isn’t encouraging, with a growing number of models predicting this will become a hurricane.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The NHC has designated Invest 92L in the Gulf. The hurricane computer model suite will start to run now, giving us better information. Development chances are up to 80% through 7 days/60% through 2 days.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
An area of low pressure has formed in the southern Gulf and development chances have increased to 70%. The trend continues to show stronger solutions. DeepMind is leading the pack, now with a majority of members indicating a hurricane is possible. Not all models favor a storm this strong.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Chances of development are up to 40% in the Gulf. There is a moderately strong model signal, but some disagreement on the environmental details and how strong a potential system may become: dswx.substack.com/p/tropical-d...
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Rain continues today. There’s a low chance (2%) of a tornado along the immediate coast of the western Florida Panhandle through about mid day or early afternoon. The area in the Gulf is up to 30% this morning, I’ll have a more detailed write-up later today.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The National Hurricane Center has marked a spot in the southern Gulf with a 20% chance of development through 7 days. Models have been hinting at development here for a while. I think wind shear is going to be too strong for anything to really get going, but something to watch.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
1/3 The story this weekend of course, is rain… Areas near the immediate coast could see 5+ inches of rain, with totals exceeding 2” well into southern MS and central AL.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The rain starts moving in today. Nothing heavy yet, just isolated to scattered storms across the southern part of the region. We’re going to have to watch the Gulf a little closer next week. It is fairly likely that some sort of low pressure will form, but it may not have...
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
1/2 The rain starts to move in tomorrow, with maybe a few coastal showers today. This shows potential rainfall totals through Monday morning, with most of it occurring Saturday and Sunday.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Here’s the high temp anomaly for the next four days starting tomorrow. It’s going to be warm for late September/early October. The heat will relax Friday into Saturday as the rain moves in.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A few light showers moved through MS overnight and made their way into west central AL. Unexpected but not uncommon with a stalled weak frontal boundary draped across the region. Still expecting a warm and dry week with showers retuning by Friday if not on Thursday.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Another cool morning, but a little warmer along the coast and in the west. Today starts a warming trend with some 90’s returning that will last through Thursday or Friday. It should also be mostly dry through the same period.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Incredible weather on tap today for the Deep South! Morning temps are nice and cool, not a drop of rain in the forecast, and mild highs for most places (W MS is a bit warmer)! Get out and enjoy the weather!
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Finally a cool fall morning, look at the 6 a.m. temps! Not a drop of rain expected today and high temps will be warm but not hot.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
1/2 A quick note on the tropics. The model’s are playing kick the can. The signal for development that was to start right about today has now moved out a week or so. I think this is more of a climatological signal than an actual signal for development, but we’ll see...
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Looking at the NWS forecast today, just a few spots with a low chance of rain. Should be dry and nice through the weekend. Cooler also! Not a single location above the 80’s!
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A few showers expected across the central part of the region today, with damaging winds and hail possible for east TN. The Deep South can’t decide what season it is in! TN seeing some cooler weather, while the southern part of the region is still solidly in summer.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
A bit more rain coverage than I thought we’d see today…
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Mainly an isolated chance of showers today except for eastern TN which will scattered coverage. Another Marginal chance of damaging winds this afternoon and evening across southern MS, central to northern AL, and eastern TN.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
1/2 Now, a recap of Saturday and Sunday. I don’t always do the best job debriefing low risk severe weather days, but attached are the storm reports for the weekend showing a few clusters of damaging wind reports for Saturday and isolated reports in the Panhandle on Sunday.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
A different look to today’s forecast, with a few strong storms possible across central to northern MS & AL and most of TN.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I haven’t seen a precipitation analysis from yesterday yet, I’ll post it later, but I think some spots got a bit more that was forecast. Similar pattern today, with some isolated showers pushing west into the areas that were dry yesterday.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The wetter pattern that began yesterday continues today in the Deep South. Half of the region has a shot at rain, MS and west TN look to stay dry. A few strong storms with damaging winds are possible for central to eastern TN and the eastern edge of AL north of the Auburn area.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
There are some signals that tropical development may be possible in the Caribbean or Gulf in 7-10 days time. There's a lot of inconsistency from model-to-model and run-to-run, but I think it's plausible: dswx.substack.com/p/watching-t...
dswx.substack.com
Watching the Tropics Through the End of the Month
Increasing but inconsistent signals are emerging for the next 7–10 days, but significant uncertainty remains about if, where, and how tropical development could occur.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
1/2 A few spots in the Deep South were in the upper 60s this morning and it may be just a few degrees cooler tomorrow (2nd image). Warm again today and mostly dry, with some isolated showers later across TN.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Yesterday’s forecast was spot on (first image). Mostly dry for the next several days. Drier air pushes in from the east tomorrow which will drop the heat index some and bring windier conditions through the end of the week.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Pretty good forecast yesterday (first image), but W TN and central AL received more rain than expected (see yesterday’s note). Dry today except W MS and a few isolated sea breeze showers along the coast. Expect mostly dry and warm/hot conditions most of the week.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Here’s the last three days’ rainfall, starting Thursday morning. A few showers today across MS and along the coast. Hot in NW MS and W TN, not as bad elsewhere but not quite September weather. The tropics are quiet, save for maybe a fish storm.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A wet morning along the coast. Most of the Deep South will see some rain today, damaging winds are possible with some of the storms in the northern part of the region. Temps will be milder with all the rain. Expect a similar pattern tomorrow, but drier on Sunday.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
1/2 Disorganized storms in the northern Gulf this morning. The current environment is fairly favorable for increased organization, wind shear is relatively low and plenty of moisture currently. Dynamic influences (troughing) to the north don’t leave a lot of time. We’ll see.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The rain is back today along the coast and for parts of TN, with some damaging wind gusts possible for TN as well. Tomorrow and Sat we’ll see increased coverage across the region. Today is the climatological peak of hurricane season. You don’t see outlook maps like this often…
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Now for today, ending tomorrow morning. Mostly dry across the region again. the REFS has a tad more precip across MS than the WPC forecast or the NBM. I’m leaning towards the drier forecast there. The heat is finally breaking down a little bit.
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
1/2 Let’s look at yesterday’s forecast…It looks like the National Blend of Models (NBM) did better along the coast. I leaned towards the new REFS (RRFS Ensemble Forecast System) because I expected some isolated sea breeze showers that didn’t occur. Central TN had less than...
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Chris Nabholz @chris-nabholz.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
What I thought was supposed to be an active pattern today and tomorrow has flipped. A couple of different looks at the precip the next 24 hrs (through Weds morning). I’m leaning more towards the second one that suggests a few coastal showers. Nothing doing in the tropics.
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