iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

lol it's so funny you say that, Doug. I was literally just messaging with someone and said I hate how FL is so early because for many it frames the night. Just prepare yourself now that ANY positive movement there is a good thing for Dems!

030

And I want to be clear, this isn't doomerism by ANY means. We are going to have a fantastic midterm! Potentially the best election for us since 2008. But I just want to caution people that an election like 2018 or 2014 would be great too!

0150

Completely agree my friend and glad you're embracing that thinking!

030

Yea, that's a good way of putting it Daniel. I just want people to start kind of wrapping their heads around, if we don't flip TX Governor or don't get FL below 5 or whatever... It can and WILL still be a fantastic night! I just worry a number of folks are setting themselves up to be disappointed.

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Yep, we agree on that. Considering the trends, a 7 point swing in FL would be tremendous.

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Dems getting within 7 in FL would be FANTASTIC, considering the trends. Our chances in SC are very slim. The state may only move 5-6. Which again, would be GREAT! My point is, the wave almost certainly won't be uniform. And if you're expecting that, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

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Want to kind of elaborate on my "the wave may not be as consistent as people think" I was talking to a few folks on here recently & one of the things I'm becoming concerned w/ is, I think A LOT of Bluesky folks are setting themselves up for disappoint in what is still going to be a FANTASTIC year!

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I mean sure, but there's been plenty of other polls showing Florida closer to 8-10 points. My GUESS is, Jolly and Nixon keep it to around 7 or so. Which would be AMAZING considering how Florida has gone recently. Gonna make a follow-up post that I think will cover what my bigger point is.

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I think that's part of it. I think it's also this idea of, they want more from the party who has run their states for years. Kind of goes back to that general discontent with incumbents.

010

Yea, and honestly I'm just SUPPPERR uncomfortable with this idea that apparently a lot of people have that it's going to be this blue tsunami everywhere. I'm just asking people to consider that it will be in many places but it very likely won't be everywhere.

110

Totally get it. I think the thing is, people just have to get comfortable w/: - The voters are mad but they also could send some pretty mixed messages in 3 weeks - Being better at saying "ok that poll could be better for Dems" and moving on, without freaking out OR dismissing it.

130

So, here's the thing, I wouldn't say it's CONSISTENT. But I agree. Like, in Illinois, Pritz and others seem to be polling very good. But in general, I think you're right.

030

That's fair. And also I'd say, you're MUCCHHH more of a FL believer than I am so that would make sense lol

120

I mean, sure but let's check in on NM-02 in 4 weeks lol This is my main gripe with a lot of folks on here. Like, it's REALLY ok to say, this is not a great poll for Haaland. Seems people are just unwilling to say that. There's always a "well yes but"

110

Right, like, the funny thing is, this Haaland number would be almost identical to Lujan Grisham's in 2022. And that was a...not great environment for Dems lol

240

So, sure....but I'm just gonna say this (and this is NOT directed at you): I feel like anytime anyone shares anything remotely negative/not amazing about polling for Dems, people on Bluesky make an excuse lol Like, it's REALLY ok to say, Deb Haaland may underperform 🤷‍♂️

140

I think we may have somewhere where in NM, NY, FL, etc. the "wave" is something like a generic ballot maybe closer to Dem +5 but then you've got IA, TX, KS, OH, etc. closer to like 15 or maybe more. That's how you get to the high single digits nationwide. May not happen but I think it's possible

3130

Polls like this are kind of why I think the generic ballot may end up around 10-11 BUT it's much higher in states like TX, OH, IA, etc. Let me explain: Biden won NM by 11, Kamala only won it by 6. Let's say Haaland wins by 9 or so. Would explain the 10-11 generic ballot but much higher elsewhere

6274

Let me guess, Barack, the spokesperson for Putin and Trump, fell for it again....

060

And let me also say, I'd bet the NY Times put this article out after Troy Jackson's jab in the debate this week about her votes against Trump not meaning anything.

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MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 17h

I give the NY Times, A LOT of shit (and almost all of it is justified). But I'm going to give them props for putting this one out today. And they are absolutely correct. Susan Collins occasionally bucks Trump but the times she does, it's meaningless. She is literally NEVER the deciding vote!

3301

Interesting!!! Nebraska but not Iowa. Color me intrigued!!

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MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 18h

There’s something so beautiful about basically every fanbase absolutely hating Lane Kiffin 😍😍

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MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 18h

Again, pay attention to where they’re spending. It will literally tell you everything

1272

ASHLEY!! 🤣🤣☠️☠️

050

🤣🤣☠️☠️ not him saying this out loud

1212

It’s seriously so gross. We all deserve some kind of gift in 2029 lol

010

*whispers* and add a few of our own….😉

1131

Never been more happy I have no idea what you’re talking about 💔

0200

Lmao I can’t keep track 🤣🤷‍♂️

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(And hyped up on K 🤣🤭)

290

…isn’t this the guy that literally got fired by the Republican Party in Michigan? Dude, read the room lol

1200

Yea I’m just fascinated in particular with he and Thiel. Like, do they stay here? I don’t think Thiel does but 🤷‍♂️

160

I’m not convinced that’s gonna work with all of them. Maybe some In particular with Elon, Alex Karp, etc.

1170

To the moon, Mayor Tony! 🫡

010

This truly is the average curmudgeon Bluesky Dem 🤣🤣 (Just not my followers, y’all rock!)

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