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Colleen Mondor

@chasingray.bsky.social
4.6K followers 515 following 6.8K posts

Aviation journalist, especially on Alaska. Never met a federal database I didn't love. "Probable Cause" newsletter is here: colleenmondor.substack.com

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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 7h
Awesome post. 100% awesome. Also, I still want the midcentury modern homes we were promised.
Freaking awesome artwork of a fantasy midcentury modern home with two sleek cars parked out front and three palm trees and a rocket in the back. Trust me, you totally want to live here.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 11h
If any of you are in the western WA area, I'll be speaking to the WA Pilots Association on Thursday about Bering Air 445 and also the recent New Mexico medevac crash. The meeting is held at the Bellingham airport in the AARF building (firefighting).
WPA NSC monthly meeting

Thursday, October 8th
 

            When:  Thursday, October 8, 2026

             Time:   Doors open at 6:30 p.m. Meeting starts at 7:00 p.m.

        Speaker:  Colleen Mondor

 Presentation:  The flight path of Bering Air 445 from Unalakleet
                          to Nome, Alaska.

                          Colleen is an aviation journalist specializing in Alaska.

           Where:  BLI AARF Station

                         2005 W. Bakerview Road

                         Bellingham, WA 98226
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The AP headline (on its site) actually reads: "Military jamming disrupted a medical plane’s GPS system before it crashed last month in New Mexico" The AP report is very short and goes on to cite experts who say that the lack of GPS should not have affected the flight. The AI is 100% wrong.
Experts say the pilots should have been able to land safely by relying on ground-based navigation systems or flying visually, but relying on GPS is popular because it is so precise.

“The loss of GPS should not result in the loss of an airplane, so there’s got to be more to it than that,” said retired airline pilot John Cox, who is now CEO of Safety Operating Systems.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Look at what AI is doing on Google for searches of the New Mexico medevac crash. It calls GPS jamming a contributory factor in the accident - which is still open and has no probable cause, etc. It cites & links to the AP but that's not what the AP article says.
AI overview reads: Active military GPS jamming contributed to the fatal crash of a Trans Aero MedEvac air ambulance in New Mexico on May 14, 2026.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Alaska's remain, thank goodness, very much Alaska-centric. www.elections.alaska.gov/division-of-...
Awesome Alaska "I voted" stickers for the 2026 general election and also Election pamphlets. All were created by ANC artist Amanda Rose Warren and depict Alaska animals including whales, moose, fox, musk ox (!!!!!) and bears.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
You know what's not in this article? Anything about how much this system cost. Also - won the contract in June and is rolling it out in DC airspace in September seems mighty damn fast to me.
The technology is being developed by Air Space Intelligence, a Boston-based software company that won the contract in June. The company did not respond to a request for comment Thursday, but previously referred questions back to DOT and FAA.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I'd love to hear what the National Weather Service thinks of SMART's abilities. Also, I'd love to know how it's different/better then what NWS already uses and shares with the FAA.
SMART will focus, in part, on forecasting where weather systems are headed rather than simply assessing where they are in real time, Bedford said.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I mean, this is absurd. If you know anything about DCA's history (& how congress & DOD have tampered with the flight activity there for decades), then you know it's not about AI. I can't believe anyone is falling for this from Duffy and Bedford.
With Duffy and Bedford leading the charge, the FAA has fully embraced artificial intelligence to help tackle some of its persistent problems following a series of high-profile aviation disasters, highlighted by the deadly midair collision over Washington in January 2025 and a fatal March runway crash at LaGuardia Airport in New York. It’s part of a wider overhaul aimed at bolstering the nation’s rickety air traffic control system.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
And yes, then the back-up got severed. My focus is still on the initial failure.
The primary communications line failed at a key Federal Aviation Administration facility in Philadelphia and the backup fiber optic line was inadvertently severed by railroad construction workers. That left controllers without radar or communications.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
If you follow me, you know why it's going to take one of this company's PC-12s.
A PC12 owned by Boutique Airlines.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
This is...I wonder about this. So, AI will decide how an airline should schedule? Is that really what the industry wants - a gov't program telling it when it can fly?
“The way we manage traffic today is chaotic, and we can do better,” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford, a former regional airline executive, said during Senate testimony earlier this year. “We need to manage that at the FAA, rather than rely on commercial airlines to simply schedule however they want.”
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
They then requested a 2nd IFR clearance from ANC to Newenham, were cleared again and flew a second approach. The crash occurred when they on final, about 1.3 miles north of the runway threshold. They were below the Minimum Descent Altitude. Here's the ADS-B track on the 2nd approach:
Map showing ADS-B data of second approach to Cape Newenham when a charter flight crashed last month.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
From the GAO report, this is..a lot. If you know anything about the failed ATC upgrade attempt in the 1980s/90s then you can see where this is headed. I mean..."11,389 individual project schedules" that are not integrated? What is the Peraton, the "Prime Integrator" doing?
FAA has not developed a comprehensive and well-documented lifecycle cost
estimate for BNATCS. In June 2026, FAA officials provided high-level estimates
per program for phase 1. However, officials were unable to provide the analysis
that supported these figures. In addition, officials acknowledged that the estimate
does not include government costs, most of the operations costs for phase 1, or
any of the costs for phase 2. In addition, FAA has not developed an integrated
master schedule for phase 1. Instead, FAA has 11,389 individual project
schedules that are not integrated. As a result, individual projects are scheduled
for installations at the same sites, generally without optimizing the schedules to
reduce impacts to controller operations. Officials stated they have plans to
address this issue, however; they did not have a time frame for when the issue
would be resolved.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Not surprising, not in the least.
They weren’t a gang of criminals. It was more like a conspiracy of ignorance and obedience. The principle of their lives, the one thing the Party machine had taught them, was never to stick their necks out. Better to keep everyone happy. Slyunkov was just then being called to Moscow for a promotion. He was so close! I’d bet there’d been a call from the Kremlin, right from Gorbachev, saying, you know, I hope you Belarussians can keep from starting a panic, the West is already making all kinds of noises. And of course if you didn’t please your higher-ups, you didn’t get that promotion, that trip abroad, that dacha. People feared their superiors more than they feared the atom.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I love a straightforward accident report. This pilot failed to avoid a cow. Yep. That will totally ruin your day.
An accident report in which no people were injured detailing how the aircraft hit a cow.

Poor cow.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
At the recent fisheries debate in Kodiak between Mary Peltola & Dan Sullivan. This was not altered by AI - he watched what she did and then copied it. (You can see a video clip here: www.msn.com/en-us/news/o...)
pic snapped from facebook of Dan Sullivan & Mary Peltola at the recent fisheries debate in Kodiak. Text, reads: "when i ask dad if I can spend the night at my friends tonight and he says 'ask your mom"
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Musk oxen never disappoint. (UAF Large Animal Research Station in Fairbanks.)
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Canadian mountains never disappoint.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Canadian Bison looking very cool. (Photo from the truck window because Bison = BIG.)
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Canadian sunrise enroute to Fort Nelson.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
One more follower and I have 4,500!!!! Why are round numbers so exciting? Here is a picture of Marvel Crosson (with brother Joe - also an incredible pilot) to entice someone to follow me.
Joe & Marvel Crosson
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I was waiting for the former mayor to weigh in! I'm surprised he didn't make his announcement in front of Sullivan Arena in ANC. (It was named for his father but still....might as well go all in on the Sullivan-ing of it all.) It's easier just to vote for Mary Peltola. :)
pic of candidate Mary Pelotal in a BE1900 with 2 pilots saying wonderful things about bush pilots in AK.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
One thing to clarify on go-around terminology - the airport info at AirNav noting "successful go-around improbable" is not about the instrument approaches but a VFR landing. It is safe to have a missed approach at Newenham; the MDAs are at least 800 feet. Here's the RNAV procedure. /6
RNAV (GPS) approach procedure for Newenham, AK
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
You guys always think so big.
Cessna 207 dropping off mail in Alaska with four-wheelers
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Here she is a few days earlier - Bering Air mostly flies Caravans, but also, as you can see, BE1900s. (They also have a Casa 212.)
Mary Peltola posing with others in front of a Bering Air BE1900
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
This is a smart (and easy) fb post for Mary Peltola. Also, the folks arguing in comments that its not the cockpit of a bush plane have no idea what they are talking about. (Bush = rural Alaska and there are many aircraft which operate in and out of those destinations.)
Mary Peltola with 2 pilots in FB book extolling the skills of AK bush pilots.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
So, my cousin and I spent quality time last weekend going thru her mom’s salt & pepper shaker collection. My cousin kept 150 sets, I took 3. 😀 (Some dated to my great grandmother’s collection & are going to family. I am mailing them to cousins & 2nd cousins all over the US. Others to be donated.)
Salt & pepper collection madness!!!
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
These other folks don't like how Alaskans vote either. (Big surprise to see Hillcorp represented.)
Musk gave $1.5 million last month to the Aurora Action Network, a Wisconsin-based political action committee that has already collected contributions from numerous billionaire megadonors, including Dick Uihlein, Jeff Yass, Timothy Mellon and Hilcorp owner Jeffery Hildebrand. Aurora Action Network then gave the repeal campaign $1 million in late July.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Also, while some see this an example of ATC staffing issues, I see basic piloting failures. The potential for GPS outage was in a NOTAM for anyone flying in the region. You have to check NOTAMs. It's so easy to do that now. Also, for 20NM, the pilots still couldn't find the assigned altitude. /6
The airplane continued a northerly heading for about 20 nautical miles, at a GPS altitude of about 12,600 ft. During this segment of the flight, the ARTCC controller provided services to other air traffic, including three additional aircraft that reported a loss of GPS. One of those
aircraft expressed difficulty identifying a directed to ground based navigation aid and required
additional assistance from ARTCC.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
This made me think of the May 14, 2026 New Mexico crash that many people have been blaming on the military disrupting GPS. I will write about this more extensively for my newsletter, but first & foremost, the crew struggled to fly. They could not hold an assigned altitude which is basic piloting. /5
At 0000:26, the ARTCC controller advised the flight crew that the airplane was at 13,000 ft msl,
1,000 ft above their assigned altitude. The pilot responded that they were correcting their
altitude and that the airplane had lost GPS capability. The pilot stated they would need a
heading. The ARTCC controller provided an initial heading of 275° toward SRR and asked
which approach they intended to fly. The pilot requested the RNAV approach to runway 24 at
SRR.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I need to sleep on it, then read it a few times to make sure I didn't mess up, and add some links. But this is coming tomorrow. Subscribe to get it in your inbox and also, because I would really appreciate it, to support my work. colleenmondor.substack.com
Headling: Bering Air flight 445 requires a different type of analysis

Subhed: It's going to take more than a minute to uncover just what went wrong in Nome and how it points to a much larger problem in commercial aviation
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
The Denali puppies are big and taking naps right now. www.nps.gov/dena/learn/p...
Denali sled dogs taking naps.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
The Probable Cause report for Bering Air 445 was released today by the NTSB. The pilot failed to maintain the necessary minimum airspeed of 120 in the Cessna Caravan while the TKS ice-protection system was operating. First thing - we will never know why he did not maintain that airspeed. /1
We determined that the probable cause of this accident was the pilot’s ​inadequate airspeed management due to workload and degraded situation awareness and his improper inputs leading up to and during the aerodynamic stall, which increased the airplane’s angle of attack. Also causal was operation of the airplane above maximum gross weight, which reduced the airplane’s stall margin. 

Contributing to the accident were the operator’s inadequate safety management, which allowed the routine operation of flights that exceeded weight limitations, and the Federal Aviation Administration’s inadequate oversight of the operator, which failed to identify and address the routine operation of overweight flights.​
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
100 pages on a 1935 plane crash that killed, among others, a US Senator & instigated a wild congressional investigation into accident investigation. I wish historian Nick Komons was still alive so I could tell him how much I loved this look at politics and air safety. (So. Much. Unexpected. Drama.)
Cover of book reading: 
THE CUTTING AIR CRASH
A Case Study in Early Federal Aviation Policy
by Nick Komons
Published by FAA 1973
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
The NTSB always runs investigations but not to the same degree. An easy example of less involvement is the sinkhole accident. One paragraph explanation, tiny docket and this statement: "The NTSB did not travel to the scene of this accident." Here's a picture of what happened. Basic stuff. /4
A picture of a very sad airplane that has encountered a sinkhole while taxiing.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
The Seattle Times reported today that the NTSB would not be traveling out the crash site. Coupled with the fact that the Board also told local media that it would not be holding media advisories, I am wondering just how physically involved the NTSB will be (in person). /2
Screenshot from SEA Times live update stating that the NTSB does not plan to send an investigator to the scene.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Just started this book and so far, it is exceeding my expectations on every level. I bought it because of some crucial pages on the FAA in the early 1970s. But also, for an insider's viewpoint on the Nixon administrator (he left before Watergate), it is so damn good.
Book cover: Game Plan for Disaster by Clark Mollenhoff
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Here's the report but anyone who thinks that SIC had a snowball's chance in being listened to by the captain is dreaming. (I'm not saying it's right - I'm saying that's how it pretty much always is.) NTSB Report: CEN24LA085 It's a Lear 35 and this is...ugly. (No injuries.)
Pic of very gnarly belly damage on a Lear 35
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I think this was the most significant quote I got back then. Arguments could be made if the pilot didn't load the aircraft and had no idea the liquor was there. This guy....that's not how it played out. (That the whole thing was being done for the postmaster never ceases to amaze me.)
For commercial pilots and air carrier/air taxi operators, the potential ramifications of Jouppi's trial are troubling. But according to Gustaf Olson, an assistant district attorney for Alaska, there is little cause for concern for the innocent.

"The question ultimately hinges on 'knowingly,'" Olson wrote in an email. "If the pilot or charter has actual knowledge of the alcohol transported (or attempted to be transported) obviously he is liable. However, the pilot is also liable if the pilot 'turns a blind eye' to the bootlegging and through willful blindness chooses to ignore signs or obvious indicators of bootlegging activity."
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
A more complete picture of the Fort Simpson crash involving the Aero Commander last month. A significant portion of the aircraft is still missing. www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes...
What we know 

    The aircraft was providing tactical support for a water bomber at a fire west of the community of Fort Simpson.   

    The left wing, horizontal stabilizer, and vertical stabilizer were not found at the accident site.   

    An aerial search for the missing aircraft components was not successful.   

    The accident site is located in muskeg with ponds, small lakes, and rivers nearby. 

    There was an active forest fire in the immediate vicinity of the accident site. 

    At the time of the accident, the aircraft airframe had 5386.2 hours since new and 7348 airframe cycles.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I'm glad they are okay but this is not something, in my opinion, is a good idea.
still from yellowstone/bison video
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
This is a picture my husband sent from our truck in Billings, Montana yesterday. Note the outside temperature on the right side of the mirror - 119. It cooled to 113 today. This. Is. Not. Good. (And to say the “born & raised in Alaska” guy is miserable would be an understatement.)
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
This is the aircraft after the forced landing last week. Louis flies into Anaktuvuk Pass daily and has been for decades. He flew for the company I worked for, way back when, in the YK-Delta. He is really the salt of the earth and absolutely cool under pressure as he proved yet again.
Forced landing the bush with everyone 100% okay!
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Remember the forced landing that got reported last week in Alaska? Turns out the pilot was an old friend & co-worker, a guy who has been flying that region FOREVER. Louis Knapp is one of the best - so happy to see him celebrated on his 1st flight back to Anaktuvuk.
Pic of Alaska pilot Louis Knapp - on left - getting cheered & applauded in AKP after his perfect forced landing a week ago in the Brooks Range.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I mean....
In Washington, Trump’s dreams have been slowed by lawsuits. The Cultural Landscape Foundation, Birnbaum’s Washington-based nonprofit, has filed a challenge to Trump’s renovations to the Reflecting Pool and joined as a co-plaintiff on suits related to the president’s plans for the Kennedy Center and a “National Garden of American Heroes” in West Potomac Park. Trump’s proposals for a ballroom and an arch also face legal challenges. Some of the suits are aimed at proving that the Trump administration is avoiding the normal review process for federal projects that would reshape the capital landscape in ways that it hasn’t been in decades. Birnbaum said that he has been “gobsmacked” that the careful layout of the city and the legal protections that have been in place for more than a century are being upended.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Links to all these books & more in the newsletter (plus bonus bush pilot pic!). Back next week with airplane-related stuff after I spend my weekend getting a ton of FOIAs ready to go (it's epic spreadsheet time, folks) & also doing some writing. And, I really need to get reading this. /fin
Cover of COLLISION COURSE by Joseph McCartin
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Sent today from a friend in Juneau. Cruise ships are stupid big and I don’t know why they keep expanding.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
This is just - bewildering. I can't imagine these numbers. Aviation safety will never get these numbers. Should I close my posts to paying subs even tho I'm writing about issues that concern safety for everyone? I mean, 6,000 paying subscribers....WOW. (I don't even have 100.) (I'm so screwed.)
Excerpt from Freddie deBoer's interview with John Warner over on substack: 

What Substack offers is a different kind of precarity, not an escape from it. My income is entirely contingent on 65,000 people continuing to find me worth reading and 6,000 of them finding my work worth paying for, which is not exactly a pension. I think about it constantly. Sometimes I lie awake at night about it! But here’s the thing—it’s legible precarity. I know exactly where I stand. I know what I earn, I know what I owe my readers, I know what happens if they leave.
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Thanks for reading! And this picture - can you believe the owner attached a box of pyrotechnics to the a/c and then shrugged his shoulders to investigators after this shit show happened as if this illegal crap is no big deal?! (So glad the pilot was able to parachute out as well.)
Picture of a Cessna 182 on fire in the air after an illegal box of pyrotechnics for a night skydiving jump caught on fire. I still cannot believe someone thought this shit was a good idea. (Everyone lived - including the pilot who also, thank goodness, had a parachute.)
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Colleen Mondor @chasingray.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
There are a lot of engine losses for unknown reasons. In reading the reports it is clear that investigators think the losses are due to fuel starvation or poor mx, but couldn't prove it definitively. Clearly proper fueling (wt & bal) & maintenance are the key problems for the industry. /3
A table showing the leading causes of skydiving accidents with fuel starvation due to pilot, poor maintenance & unk engine loss as leaders.
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