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charlesellinas.bsky.social

@charlesellinas.bsky.social
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Freeze or starve - As a result of Europe's failure to tackle its affordability crisis, an estimated 50mn people will be forced to choose between heating and food this winter mail.yahoo.com/n/folders/00...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Asia’s Pragmatic Currency Pivot - Asia’s leading economies are edging away from their eight-decade relationship with the US dollar for international trade. Diversification and digitalization are reshaping finance’s future www.imf.org/en/publicati...
imf.org
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
LNG market turmoil gives another boost to clean power - In many of the developing economies driving energy demand growth, doubts about gas’s role appear to be rising ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
But the ongoing conflict with Iran is creating new threats to that “energy dominance” agenda — and new drivers for clean energy investment, as I explain below.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva’s Statement at the Conclusion of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Asheville, North Carolina - Growth has firmed-up but risks persist www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Americans lose faith in their power to shape events - Algorithmic control of our consumer choices is now a simple fact of life and, in the past few years, the American dream of free choice and upward mobility has been called into question ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
She cites a 2025 survey in which only 31 per cent of respondents agreed that “if you work hard, you will get ahead”. The reaction can be seen in recent polling favouring labour and faith-oriented candidates aligned with institutions (unions, the church) that offer alternatives to corporate power.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
July was the hottest month in the US since records began in 1895 according to data released by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration www.cnn.com/2026/08/10/c...
cnn.com
July was the hottest month in the US since records began in 1895 | CNN
July was the hottest month ever recorded in the United States, according to data released Monday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Who killed the ESG party? - Asset managers are no longer boasting about their environmental, social and governance credentials after poor performance, greenwashing scandals and a political backlash in the US www.ft.com/video/1eeebd...
ft.com
Who killed the ESG party? | FT Film
ESG investing was until recently a buzzword in global finance, the party was in full swing, the marketing material was everywhere and the money was rolling in. But asset managers are no longer boastin...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
ESG is dead - the ESG craze collapsed under the weight of its own internal contradictions, its tendency to overpromise and then from the fact it had its butt kicked, first by the outperformance of non-green energy and then AI ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
Sustainable investment is so over. A few years ago, banks and asset managers would not shut up about it. Everything came with an ESG label, touting the environmental, social and governance-related virtues of investment vehicles for an investing public keen to put their money to good use.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Strong El Niño event will have wide-ranging impacts on energy - There is an 81% chance of a “very strong” El Niño in 4Q of this year. If that happens, it would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record, which goes back to 1950 www.woodmac.com/blogs/energy...
woodmac.com
Strong El Niño event will have wide-ranging impacts on energy
The weather conditions created by what is expected to be a strong El Niño will affect solar, wind and hydro power, gas demand, and shipping.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Hormuz half-open: Owners are moving early to position vessels for a return to Gulf exports. But the gap between expectation and ​reality remains wide, leaving the global oil shipping system in a fragile middle ground between crisis and recovery www.reuters.com/commentary/r...
reuters.com
Hormuz half-open: tanker fleet prices in recovery hope
The world's oil tanker fleet is behaving as if the Strait of Hormuz is reopening — even as the waterway itself remains only partially navigable and politically contested.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
First round of US-Iran talks ends with encouraging progress, mediators say - Qatar and Pakistan said that the parties had agreed to "a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days" www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
First round of US-Iran talks end with 'encouraging progress', mediators say
The US-Iran talks began on Sunday in Switzerland, after last week's agreement, which includes a commitment to reach a final deal within 60 days.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
America’s allies look to declare independence from the US - Traditional partners are rethinking their economic ties. They have discovered that longstanding ties to the US do not buy them immunity from abuse and pressure tactics from the Trump administration www.ft.com/content/a718...
ft.com
America’s allies look to declare independence from the US
Traditional partners are rethinking their economic ties
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
The US authorized Iranian oil sales on Monday, easing decades-old sanctions as it pushes toward a final peace deal with Tehran in return ‌for commitments on nuclear inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz www.yahoo.com/news/article...
yahoo.com
US authorizes Iranian oil sales amid talks on final peace deal
By Daphne Psaledakis WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - The United States authorized Iranian oil sales on Monday, easing decades-old sanctions as it pushes toward a final peace deal with Tehran in return
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to thin early on Friday, just a day after a burst of oil flows through the waterway as the US and Iran vowed to lift a dual blockade - Shipowners are concerned about impact of continuing hostilities in Lebanon www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Hormuz Traffic Thins Friday as Shipowners Err on Side of Safety
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to thin early on Friday, just a day after a burst of oil flows through the waterway as the US and Iran vowed to lift a dual blockade.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
IEA: Global Hydrogen Review 2026 - Despite IEA's usual optimism, it concludes that the short-term outlook for low-emissions hydrogen remains uncertain and that significant challenges lay ahead iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/18bdb...
iea.blob.core.windows.net
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
On June 12th Trump ordered Anthropic to block foreigners from Fable and Mythos, its latest and most capable frontier AI models. In an instant, everyone learned that the US government can decide who may use the world’s most important technology www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
economist.com
AI has granted America vast new power
Its government is now the gatekeeper to frontier models—and most compute
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Energy Firms Brace For 'New Era' Despite Hormuz Deal - Major oil&gas companies have “high hopes for a quick reopening of the strait of Hormuz, but they have few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage” www.barrons.com/news/energy-...
barrons.com
Energy Firms Brace For 'New Era' Despite Hormuz Deal
Oil and gas majors have high hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but they have few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of bloc...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
OIES: Unpacking the Hormuz Crisis: Implications for energy markets and the energy transition www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-con...
oxfordenergy.org
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a ceasefire following US-brokered talks in Washington seeking to end fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hizbollah militant group ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. Let’s dive into:
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
The Gulf crisis may just be starting - Up to now, shortages have been mostly imaginary. Now they will become real. The longer the strait remains closed and the bigger the physical damage, the longer shortages will remain and the worse their impact www.ft.com/content/fb29...
ft.com
The Gulf crisis may just be starting
Oil futures markets are sanguine, but history shows expectations have often been disappointed
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
China Orders Refiners to Ignore US Sanctions on Key Iranian Oil Buyers - In a major escalation of trade tensions it has issued a prohibition order instructing all entities operating in China to disregard and not implement US sanctions oilprice.com/Latest-Energ... #oilprice
oilprice.com
China Orders Refiners to Ignore U.S. Sanctions on Key Iranian Oil Buyers | OilPrice.com
China invoked its Blocking Rules for the first time, ordering firms to ignore U.S. sanctions on five refineries processing Iranian crude oil.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
China: Energy structure is evolving towards green and upgrading - By 2030, non-fossil energy will account for 25% of total energy consumption www.nea.gov.cn/20260424/6cf...
nea.gov.cn
能源结构向绿迭代向新升级---国家能源局
国家能源网
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
IMF warns of global downturn risk from continuing Iran conflict - Due to the Iran war, the IMF’s narrative has shifted from a “resilient global economy” in January 2026 to a “shock-fragile system” approach. The potential for a positive outcome is shrinking www.neglobal.eu/imf-warns-of...
neglobal.eu
IMF warns of global downturn risk from continuing Iran conflict | NE Global Media
It should surprise no one that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – World Bank Spring meetings in Washington D.C. on April 13–18 were overshadowed by the Middle East war, now uniformly viewed as th...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Oil prices: higher for longer - Goldman Sachs bumped up its Brent forecasts for the fourth quarter of this year to $90 a barrel, from $80 previously and WTI up to $83 a barrel from $75, with Gulf exports not getting back to normal until the end of June ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
Good morning. The tension between benign asset markets and more worrisome energy markets is unlikely to go away this week. If anything, it’s likely to get more pronounced. Société Générale points out that companies worth a total of $29tn (!) in market cap report earnings this week, or 44 per cent of the S&P 500. Without some really ugly surprises, that probably means we see further stock market gains. That does not mean the energy stress has gone away. Where do you think this leaves risk appetite? Email us: unhedged@ft.com
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Big Oil Returns to Exploration as Reserves Dwindle - Big Oil is ramping up exploration again after years of underinvestment, aiming to replace reserves as oil and gas demand remains strong oilprice.com/Energy/Crude...
oilprice.com
Big Oil Returns to Exploration as Reserves Dwindle | OilPrice.com
Exploration is now central to strategy, alongside M&A and development, as companies work to avoid future production declines and strengthen portfolios.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
All sides in the Gulf war are at risk of overplaying their hands - In war, what at first seems logical can, in hindsight, prove to have been foolhardy. The costs of dragging out the conflict could be very high indeed www.economist.com/middle-east-...
economist.com
All sides in the Gulf war are at risk of overplaying their hands
The latest news in US politics, with coverage of Donald Trump's Iran war strategy, Israel relations and potential ground invasion risks in the Gulf.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
The shock is heading west "In conversations with more than three dozen oil and gas traders, executives, brokers, shippers and advisers over the last week, one message was repeated over and over: The world still hasn't grasped the severity of the situation" www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
bloomberg.com
The Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock Is Now Heading West
US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
We must not underestimate the peril for democracy - Trump’s America is a world leader in democratic decline. A “democratic recession”, which began two decades ago, is beginning to look dangerously like a democratic depression. www.ft.com/content/c4c1... via @ft
ft.com
We must not underestimate the peril for democracy
Donald Trump’s America is a world leader in democratic decline
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
The end of nuclear taboos - Nuclear proliferation could become the way of the future. It is developing into a natural response to events in Ukraine and Iran, and their impact on fossil fuels and energy security ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
Is this, asks Janan, a wave of recklessness? Perhaps. But it is also a natural response to events in Ukraine and Iran. And, of course, the endless unpredictability of the US. Countries that cannot be sure US President Donald Trump will honour mutual defence treaties may regret their choice to forgo building their own bomb and hide beneath America’s nuclear umbrella. “The frankness with which governments now discuss the subject suggests that an intellectual and even moral seal has been broken.”
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Oil’s monopoly kaput, China to be top supplier of energy security - With Hormuz closed, Gulf states under attack, every importing country will do what’s needed to remove oil from its energy stack. Chinese EVs have the advantage asiatimes.com/2026/03/oils...
asiatimes.com
Oil’s monopoly kaput, China to be top supplier of energy security - Asia Times
So, baby, can't you see I've got to break free I've got to break free I want to break free, yeah – Queen The world cannot possibly absorb more exports
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
What the war in Iran means for China - China's massive oil stockpiles and diversified sourcing offer short-term protection, but a prolonged conflict over Iran could exacerbate domestic economic pressures and undermine China’s global goals www.bruegel.org/analysis/wha...
bruegel.org
What the war in Iran means for China
China is relatively inured to the Iran conflict, but less external demand could hit its exports and its international partnerships may be undermined
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Analysis: Iranian leadership see survival at any cost a holy victory -They believe they are fighting a "holy war". Trump is "demanding" seven countries join efforts to re-open Hormuz, warning there would be a "very bad future" for NATO without the support news.sky.com/story/iran-l...
news.sky.com
Iran war latest: Trump demands seven countries help police Strait of Hormuz - as Dubai airport stops flights after drone hits fuel tank
Donald Trump ramps up the pressure for a coalition of allies to help open up the Strait of Hormuz - but it's understood the UK and others are reluctant to commit warships. Sir Keir Starmer could inste...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Iran holds the key to reopening global energy markets - Industry says naval convoys won't help restore traffic www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Iran holds the key to reopening global energy markets
Executives at Middle Eastern companies and their Western peers warn it will require ​more than just U.S. assurances of safety to restart shipping traffic and production even if the fighting ceases imm...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and an Unprecedented Energy Crunch - The bombing of Kharg Island will exacerbate that. Escalation has already started www.cfr.org/articles/ira...
cfr.org
Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and an Unprecedented Energy Crunch | Council on Foreign Relations
CFR President Michael Froman discusses the unfolding global energy crisis with CFR’s Dan Poneman and the Center on Global Energy Policy’s Jason Bordoff, all of whom worked together on the U.S. Strateg...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Iran war is good for America's gas/LNG industry - Gas shipment disruptions in Qatar are pushing global buyers toward US LNG to keep their power plants and factories running
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Iran war on same disastrous path as Iraq war - The Iraq precedent offers a brutal lesson for Iran: military success and political outcomes are rarely the same thing - and the gap between them is where wars fail asiatimes.com/2026/03/iran...
asiatimes.com
Iran war on same disastrous path as Iraq war - Asia Times
The United States military achieved every objective it set when it went to war in Iraq in 2003. Decapitation: Saddam Hussein was captured, tried and
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The Trump administration is Wall Street's nightmare - Markets demand reliable data, but Donald Trump is feeding them chaos with glaring contradictions that rattle traders m5.emails.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/m.jsp...
m5.emails.telegraph.co.uk
Trump's contradictions erode market trust
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Ursula von der Leyen's ambiguous defence of international law, as tensions inside the EU leadership over the US-Israeli war against Iran bubble over, got criticised and rightly so. Her positions on key issues let Europe down ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
Today, I report on the public disagreements among the EU’s senior leadership over the Iran war, and our Austria correspondent has news of the government-toppling Ibiza scandal finally heading to court.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. This war may ultimately strengthen, rather than weaken, China’s strategic position foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/06/i...
foreignpolicy.com
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance
Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Markets tumble as oil soars past $110 a barrel - In the meanwhile, Trump’s openness to deploying troops inside Iran has raised concerns about deeper US involvement in the war. He also dismissed the surge in oil prices as a “very small price to pay” ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
Good morning and welcome back. In today’s newsletter:
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Think geopolitics is bad? Look at geoeconomics - How does the Iran war end? That may be less a question of drones, ships and artillery than supply chains, inflation and debt markets ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
She writes that since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, we’ve seen how the weaponisation of energy and trade can create inflation shocks that result in short-term bond sell-offs. These in turn can change the course of political events.
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Europe's moral malaise - Mixed messaging from Washington makes it all the more impossible to settle on a coherent position. As one analyst told me: ‘This is worse than a war of choice, it’s a war of impulse with no plan and no coalition www.euractiv.com/opinion/edit...
euractiv.com
Editors' Choice: Europe's moral malaise | Euractiv
Iran presents a rhetorical minefield that makes double standards, communication inconsistencies, and diplomatic faux pas inevitable
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Europe’s extra energy tax - For every combined 10% increase in Brent crude oil and TTF gas prices, the euro-dollar rate slides by about 0.8%. If oil and gas prices move to $100, the euro could drift down towards $1.13, acting as additional energy tax ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
This is a dangerous feedback loop for Europe, which is only just emerging from the 2022 energy crisis. Gas reserves across the EU are less than 30 per cent full, meaning refilling storage ahead of the next winter could be painful and expensive. Send us your thoughts: unhedged@ft.com
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
The war of unintended consequences - The Trump administration appears to have been surprised by the way in which Iran lashed out across the region with the aim of putting the Gulf states under pressure and causing a major international economic crisis ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
ep.ft.com
© copyright Ann Kiernan - seek permission for use https://annkiernan.com/
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Brent crude is hovering around $83.5/b and Dutch TTF gas has come down to €49.5/MWh, while stock markets are recovering, possibly on expectation that the Iran war is not getting out of hand...for now
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The nightmare Iran energy scenario is becoming reality - A longer war means a harsher global economic fallout www.economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
The nightmare Iran energy scenario is becoming reality
A longer war means a harsher global economic fallout
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
China: National Energy Administration: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of installed capacity from new energy sources will exceed 50%, and their share of power generation will reach 30% solar.in-en.com/html/solar-2...
solar.in-en.com
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Carbon — In Focus: EU ETS in political crosshairs - Media reports suggest that the European Commission is planning to weaken the system. Some are even asking whether it is about to be dismantled www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...
argusmedia.com
Carbon — In Focus: EU ETS in political crosshairs | Latest Market News
Political focus on the EU emissions trading system (ETS) has intensified noticeably in the past two weeks, weighing on prices, as leaders and policymakers consider how the scheme's approaching review ...
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
U.S. natural gas production to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027 - Will increase by 2% to average 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026 and then further increase to a record-high 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027 www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
eia.gov
U.S. natural gas production to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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charlesellinas.bsky.social @charlesellinas.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
In the struggle for economic survival EU is morbidly slow, weighed down by stifling energy costs, red tape, and aggressive foreign trade policies. This bleak prognosis was outlined by Bart De Wever. Competitiveness and industrial decline remain a problem newsletter.euractiv.com/mail/492cee8...
newsletter.euractiv.com
Keeping the home fires burning
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