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Charles de Dampierre

@charlesdedampierre.bsky.social
106 followers 73 following 18 posts

Computational Social Scientist

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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Jean-Pascal Bassino, Ting Chen, Vojtěch Kaše, @yuzurukumon.bsky.social , Ian Morris, Masaki Nakabayashi, Maya Shatzmiller, Ting Xu, Kaveh Yazdani, Valentin Thouzeau, Nicolas Baumard
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
thanks to all my co-authors: @mikekestemont.bsky.social, @folgertk.bsky.social @coraliechevallier.bsky.social, Kyle Harper, Elise Huillery, @markkoyama.bsky.social , @jvoth.bsky.social , Jutta Bolt, Jan Luiten van Zanden
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
The preprint can be found here: hal.science/hal-05452762/
hal.science
Cultural Production Reveals Transitions to Sustained Human Development in both European and Non-European Societies
Sustained human development is often seen as a recent phenomenon, primarily linked to Europe's Industrial Revolution. This perspective has shaped much of our historical understanding, but it relies on a limited set of economic indicators with restricted temporal and geographic coverage. In this article, we introduce Cultural Production as a complementary proxy for human development, particularly suited to long-term and cross-regional comparisons. Cultural production reflects the extent to which societies enable individuals to acquire knowledge, develop skills, and contribute to intellectual and artistic life-conditions closely tied to education, health, material security, and institutional support. We construct a global dataset tracking 122,634 distinct cultural producers (e.g., scientists, artists, writers) and apply ecological methods to estimate the number of unrecorded figures, correcting for differential survivorship bias. The resulting measure enables a broader and deeper reconstruction of human development across time and space. Our results challenge the prevailing view that meaningful development began only in modern Europe. We confirm that Western Europe experienced continuous gains from the 11th century onward, but we also uncover sustained growth in non-Western regions long before the 19th century. Japan shows multiple developmental phases, including a continuous rise after 1500 CE. In China, we trace human development back over 1,500 years, identifying major advances during the Han, Tang, and late imperial periods. In South and West Asia, we reveal marked progress under the Abbasid Caliphate and the Delhi Sultanate. Cultural Production also enables estimates of human development for Antiquity, showing developmental peaks in Classical Greece and Rome, though these were not sustained. Altogether, our findings suggest that all major regions, including non-European societies, transitioned from stagnation to sustained growth well before the Industrial Revolution-some as early as 1000 CE. These results suggest a more widespread and earlier pattern of human development across civilizations than previously recognized.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
This perspective complements, rather than replaces, economic indicators. It provides a way to study development where conventional data are missing. And it highlights the importance of education, institutions, and cumulative knowledge.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Overall, our results suggest that sustained human development did not begin suddenly in the 19th century. Instead, it emerged earlier and gradually, across several civilizations, over many centuries. Industrialization appears as a late acceleration of longer processes.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
In Antiquity, we observe peaks in Classical Greece and Rome. These episodes were significant but not sustained. Long-term growth appears later, during the medieval and early modern periods.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
For example, in China, we can track development over more than 1,500 years. We identify multiple phases of expansion, including a period of strong late-imperial growth. These patterns are largely invisible in GDP-based accounts.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
We then reconstruct long-term trajectories across regions. We observe sustained growth well before industrialization in: – Europe – China – Japan – the Islamic world – the Indian world
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
We then test whether this indicator tracks known dimensions of development. Cultural production correlates positively with: – GDP per capita – life expectancy – literacy – numeracy – homicide rates – infant mortality And correlations improve after correction.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
This correction accounts for differences across periods, regions, and cultural product types (paintings, books, music, etc.) and helps reduce survivorship bias in historical archives.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
To address this, we borrowed methods from ecology: in biodiversity research, scientists estimate how many species have never been observed. We adapt these “unseen species” models to cultural data, which allows us to estimate how many cultural producers are missing from the records.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
A major difficulty is that most historical creators are forgotten, manuscripts disappear, archives are lost and works decay. Raw counts, therefore, underestimate past cultural activity.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
We built a global dataset of more than 120,000 cultural producers, drawing on over 1,300 catalogs from 70 countries. These include national libraries, authority files, and international databases. This allows us to track long-term patterns across regions and centuries.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
When more people can meet these conditions, more people can participate in cultural life. So changes in cultural production partly reflect how widely societies make learning and creative work possible. In this sense, cultural production can serve as an indirect indicator of human development.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Producing a book, a scientific text, or a work of art is not only a matter of talent. It usually requires: – basic literacy – time outside subsistence work – minimum material security – institutional support These conditions tend to improve when education, health, and social infrastructure improve.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
We explore a complementary approach. Instead of focusing only on economic output, we examine the number of people who were able to produce scientific, literary, or artistic works. We call this "Cultural Production".
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Most long-run studies rely on GDP per capita. But historically, GDP faces major limitations: sparse sources, strong reconstruction assumptions, and uneven regional coverage. As a result, large parts of global history remain poorly measured.
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Charles de Dampierre @charlesdedampierre.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
How can we study human development over two thousand years? For most periods and regions, we lack reliable data on income, health, or education. Before 1800, and outside Europe, historical records are extremely fragmentary. Thread 👇 🧵
Chinese world culltural trend
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