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Chris Bangert-Drowns

@cbdecon.bsky.social
14 followers 15 following 56 posts

Researcher @equitablegrowth focused on workers and trade.

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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Canada's expected tariff retaliation today applies to only a slice of the country's total imports from the U.S., so immediate harm should be limited, but U.S. escalation could threaten a much wider economic base, including the auto industry.
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Reposted by Chris Bangert-Drowns
America's Voice @americasvoice.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
"Recent work by Lynch and Ettlinger highlights these same inflation dynamics in the currently ongoing immigration enforcement surge, showing declining employment and production in industries and regions reliant on immigrant labor." via @cbdecon.bsky.social #EndTheICETax
equitablegrowth.org
Economic research shows immigration is good for U.S. workers, the economy, and affordability
Immigration supports stronger economic growth by expanding the U.S. labor force, boosting productivity, increasing profitability for businesses, and strengthening consumer demand.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The threatened additional auto tariffs pose a real threat to the Canadian economy, whose auto exports comprise a large share of all trade to the U.S. Shrinking the Canadian economy would only hurt the U.S. by drying up demand for our exports and weakening a key geopolitical ally.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
U.S. manufacturers depending on parts from Canada, particularly in northern states, could be forced into procuring costly inputs from more distant sources, including Mexico and East Asia, just as the U.S. is threatening a “transshipment” crackdown on those areas.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The explicit threat of expanded U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports is difficult to square against the Trump administration’s stated commitment to reducing inflation. Tariffs on Canadian auto products would pinch U.S. manufacturers and consumers reliant on lower-cost imports.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Section 338 allows for the outright banning of certain imports, as well as the imposition of tariffs on third-party countries. Such powers have never been used, but the Trump administration has proven itself capable of broadly interpreting similar legal authorities.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
While the latest Section 338 tariffs comprise a small share of total trade with Canada, escalation appears likely. Canada’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs could be met with expanded tariffs from the U.S., or even more severe and untested measures in Section 338.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The collapse of trade talks with Canada puts the U.S. on unsure footing with its second-largest trading partner. The over 10% of all U.S. imports originating from our northern neighbor have faced a lower average tariff rate compared to other countries, but that could soon change.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act in taming persistent inflation while maintaining full employment, and today’s numbers could strengthen the argument against a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. Inflation data released next week could provide clarity.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The U.S. economy is facing headwinds from elevated input costs, the seemingly intractable conflict with Iran, and policy uncertainty around trade and industrial investment. A weak labor market is both a symptom of those headwinds and a source of potential complications itself.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The new payroll data show a loss of jobs in July, driven mainly by declines in local education as COVID-era federal funding dries up and student enrollment continues a years-long decline. Prior economic bright spots, such as healthcare, saw slower growth in July.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The participation rate and employment-population ratio are both down meaningfully from this time last year, accelerating a trend that emerged in the recovery from the COVID-19 recession. This comes amid warnings of labor shortages bottlenecking supply and driving up prices.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
🧵 Digging into this morning’s tepid jobs numbers highlights some key weaknesses in the U.S. economy. First, participation continues to erode - an estimated ~264k people left the labor force in July, following a ~720k decline in June.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Read the latest on tariffs from @equitablegrowth.bsky.social: equitablegrowth.org/the-costs-of...
equitablegrowth.org
The costs of the Trump administration’s tariffs diverge for countries and industries so far in 2026
Trade policy uncertainty means many U.S. firms are adopting a wait-and-see approach—holding off on investment and hiring decisions that drive economic growth.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Tariffs and a seemingly intractable (and avoidable) war in Iran are combining to produce chaos in global trade, suppressing economic growth across the planet, and threatening the dynamism and hegemony of the U.S. economy.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
And today’s tariffs are far from the final shot in the administration’s quiver. Tariff action against Canada could escalate in the coming months, and further indiscriminate tariffs are likely to come from pending investigations into manufacturing overcapacity.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
This latest round of tariffs is sure to face legal pushback. Whether or not challenges prevail matters little in the short term, however. Businesses facing higher costs and an unclear future will hold off on the investments in workers and capital that drive U.S. economic growth.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Dubious motives aside, the revenue generated from these tariffs will not last. Imports will shrink, drying up the tax base. Deficits will continue to mushroom and borrowing costs will rise, weakening the ability of the government to respond to future crises not of our own making.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Let’s remember that an ideal tariff strategy is one that targets specific commodity groups or countries for well-defined economic reasons. Precision is key for maximum effect while minimizing disruption to our economy. These new tariffs do the opposite.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Rather than detailing particular imports to be tariffed, the new orders instead only detail imports to be exempted from tariffs – this is an indiscriminate policy with mere tinkering on the edges, not a focused policy intended to root out forced labor.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The new rates, ranged 10-12.5%, cover nearly all U.S. imports and every major trading partner using Section 301 of the Trade Act on 1974, which until now had only been deployed to narrowly target imports over unfair trade actions.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
🧵 New tariffs taking effect this morning represent a deepening of this administration’s strategy of trade chaos and are a threat to U.S. workers and the economy under a thin justification of opposing forced labor.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Policy uncertainty has become a defining feature of the second Trump administration, from tariffs and industrial policy to the Iran war, and the Slaughter decision is likely to compound the problem. Biased, inconsistent federal policymaking will slow growth and skew competition.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Research has shown policy uncertainty increases price volatility and depresses investment and job growth in sensitive industries, ultimately slowing overall economic growth. www.nber.org/papers/w21633
nber.org
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The expectation of bias across federal agencies, not just the FTC, will induce markets to make inefficient, growth-slowing decisions. Uncertainty in federal rulemaking would make planning difficult and could push firms to focus on political favors over business fundamentals.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
@equitablegrowth.bsky.social Steering Committee member Daron Acemoglu showed in a 2008 paper that constraints on political influence improve the effectiveness of central bank policymaking across countries. ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo...
ideas.repec.org
When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Indep
We argue that the question of whether and when policy reform works should be investigated together with the political economy factors responsible for distortionary policies in the first place. These n
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
In the same way that a partisan Fed would unmoor inflation expectations and cause chaos in financial markets, a partisan FTC, for example, might unevenly apply antitrust powers depending on the political affiliation of the businesses in question.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The Court’s decision in Trump v Slaughter could prove destabilizing to the U.S. economy for the same reasons argued in the Cook case – markets don’t trust policymaking from institutions subject to partisan whim, and businesses struggle to plan around ideologically-driven policy.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
🧵 Twin decisions from the Supreme Court this week could shake the U.S. economy by eroding confidence in federal policymaking. While SCOTUS rightly blocked the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (for now), its removal of protections for other agency leaders could be disastrous.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The World Cup presents an opportunity for workers to leverage their bargaining power and demand more amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty. With global eyes on the U.S., SoFi Stadium workers are doing just that.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Workers at SoFi Stadium are organizing to secure these and other material gains including a demand ICE and CBP agents play no role during the World Cup to avoid the disruption and drag on local economic growth that can result from an immigration crackdown. northstarpolicy.org/leisure-and-...
northstarpolicy.org
The Impact of Operation Metro Surge on Minnesota’s Leisure and Hospitality Sector | North Star Policy Action
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Unions also have a positive impact beyond economic conditions – they improve civic participation, strengthen community ties, and contribute to public health by shoring up workplace safety standards and ensuring access to medical care and paid leave. equitablegrowth.org/research-sho...
equitablegrowth.org
Research shows unions dampen support for right-wing populism and help workers navigate technological transitions
The labor movement and unions can strengthen political democracy and help workers manage technological transitions.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
These gains for union workers translate to a reduction in economic inequality within firms and across society by raising wage floors, redistributing corporate profits to workers, and supporting more broad-based economic growth. workrisenetwork.org/working-know...
workrisenetwork.org
How Unions Can Increase Firm Productivity and Strengthen Economic Growth
Evidence suggests that the benefits of labor unions are widespread for the American economy, for businesses and workers alike.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
First, and perhaps most obviously, union workers earn significantly more than their nonunion counterparts – this “wage premium” in the U.S. averages 12.5%. And in areas with high union density, higher union wages can buoy incomes for nonunion workers too. www.epi.org/publication/...
epi.org
Unions aren’t just good for workers—they also benefit communities and democracy
Rebuilding worker power by strengthening unions is not just good policy—it is a democratic imperative in the face of authoritarian backsliding.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The threat of a stadium worker strike on the eve of the World Cup underscores the power of union activity in the U.S., and provides a chance for economists to review what the evidence says about the impacts of unions (tldr: collective bargaining works!).
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
equitablegrowth.org/benchmarking...
equitablegrowth.org
Benchmarking the U.S. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit
Benchmarks for evaluating the evolution of the U.S. economy under the second Trump administration.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
President Trump inherited an economy on track for years of stable growth but has upended that upward trajectory through volatile trade and foreign policy decisions. Committing to a reliable, narrowly targeted tariff policy would be a big step towards stabilizing the U.S. economy.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
The physical destruction of energy infrastructure in the Gulf carries longer-term implications. Even if the Hormuz is reopened quickly, damaged facilities could require years of costly repairs before production can be brought back online.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A recent study from the Dallas Fed estimates a closure of the Hormuz, which carries ~20% of global oil supplies, will cause an immediate hit to global GDP of -2.9%. That means reduced demand for U.S. exports and slower domestic growth. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...
dallasfed.org
What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involve...
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Economic growth has also suffered under the ongoing U.S. war with Iran, which has disrupted supplies of key consumer goods and business inputs, including fuel and fertilizer. This bodes poorly for industrial importers of energy products, compounding tariff costs.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
The latest tariff research on industry-level input costs from @equitablegrowth.bsky.social shows key sectors – manufacturing, construction, and extractive industries – faced substantial tariff costs in 2025, with little respite for burdened businesses. equitablegrowth.org/tariff-polic...
equitablegrowth.org
Tariff policies in 2025 increased input costs for key U.S. industries, threatening growth and investment
A handful of key U.S. economic sectors face disproportionately large first-order tariff costs, complicating growth and investment in those sectors.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Just last week, @equitablegrowth.bsky.social convened a stellar panel of experts, including Elena Patel, Riley Ohlson, Carola Binder, and moderator Josh Boak, to shine light on possible paths forward for tariff policy, including new Section 301 investigations. www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdJ8...
youtube.com
U.S. Tariffs, Jobs, and Growth: What’s Ahead in 2026
YouTube video by Washington Center for Equitable Growth
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A year ago today, President Trump hiked tariffs to levels unseen in the modern era, celebrating a “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. Since then, U.S. tariff policy has remained costly and highly uncertain, weighing on the ability of businesses to grow and hire more workers.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
equitablegrowth.org/benchmarking...
equitablegrowth.org
Benchmarking the U.S. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit
Benchmarks for evaluating the evolution of the U.S. economy under the second Trump administration.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
President Trump inherited an economy on track for years of stable growth but has upended that upward trajectory through volatile trade and foreign policy decisions. Committing to a reliable, narrowly targeted tariff policy would be a big step towards stabilizing the U.S. economy.
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Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
The physical destruction of energy infrastructure in the Gulf carries longer-term implications. Even if the Hormuz is reopened quickly, damaged facilities could require years of costly repairs before production can be brought back online.
100
Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A recent study from the Dallas Fed estimates a closure of the Hormuz, which carries ~20% of global oil supplies, will cause an immediate hit to global GDP of -2.9%. That means reduced demand for U.S. exports and slower domestic growth. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...
dallasfed.org
What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involve...
100
Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Economic growth has also suffered under the ongoing U.S. war with Iran, which has disrupted supplies of key consumer goods and business inputs, including fuel and fertilizer. This bodes poorly for industrial importers of energy products, compounding tariff costs.
210
Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
The latest tariff research on industry-level input costs from @equitablegrowth.bsky.social shows key sectors – manufacturing, construction, and extractive industries – faced substantial tariff costs in 2025, with little respite for burdened businesses. equitablegrowth.org/tariff-polic...
equitablegrowth.org
Tariff policies in 2025 increased input costs for key U.S. industries, threatening growth and investment
A handful of key U.S. economic sectors face disproportionately large first-order tariff costs, complicating growth and investment in those sectors.
100
Chris Bangert-Drowns @cbdecon.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Just last week, @equitablegrowth.bsky.social convened a stellar panel of experts, including Elena Patel, Riley Ohlson, Carola Binder, and moderator Josh Boak, to shine light on possible paths forward for tariff policy, including new Section 301 investigations. www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdJ8...
youtube.com
U.S. Tariffs, Jobs, and Growth: What’s Ahead in 2026
YouTube video by Washington Center for Equitable Growth
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