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carolinerose8.bsky.social

@carolinerose8.bsky.social
596 followers 369 following 971 posts

Director at the New Lines Institute researching military withdrawal, the captagon trade, and security in the Middle East | Adjunct Professor teaching on the crime-conflict nexus at Georgetown University | Past: MENA+Europe Analyst at Geopolitical Futures

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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
#Hegseth said the #Iran war has cost the US $37.5 billion so far, an increase from May estimates of $29 billion, and said that the administration needs nearly double that to continue operations in the next few months www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru... www.arabnews.com/node/2651813...
nbcnews.com
Pete Hegseth puts cost of Iran war at $37.5 billion as the Pentagon seeks more money from Congress
The defense secretary’s estimate is up from the $25 billion Pentagon officials gave in late April. NBC News has reported the amount is much higher.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
In my latest for TSC, I explain how a recent State Dep report on #Cuba signals that Trump could be seeking public support for potential military intervention in Cuba. Trump could be laying the groundwork for intervention once a revised #MoU is achieved with Iran thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2....
thesoufancenter.org
The U.S. Waits Out the Iran War, Eyeing Potential Intervention in Cuba
On July 20, the U.S. Department of State issued a nine-section report, titled “Cuba: the Capital of 21st Century Communism,” that purported a decades-long Cuban espionage and subversion operation to…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I spoke with Alaraby about the crisis in the #StraitOfHormuz
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
“#Iraq's oil minister said on Tuesday that agreements signed between the oil ministry ‌and U.S. companies during the Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi's visit to U.S. were estimated at $200 billion.” www.arabnews.com/node/2651828...
arabnews.com
Iraq’s oil minister says US energy deals worth about $200 billion
BAGHDAD: ‌Iraq’s oil minister said on Tuesday that agreements ​signed between the oil ministry and US companies during the Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s visit to US were estimated ‌at $200…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
"The #Lebanese army entered the town of Zawtar Al-Gharbiyah, north of the #LitaniRiver, at dawn on Tuesday, marking the first practical implementation of the pilot zones established under the US-brokered framework agreement between Lebanon and #Israel. www.arabnews.com/node/2651741...
arabnews.com
Zawtar Al-Gharbiyah becomes first test of Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment in south Lebanon
BEIRUT: The Lebanese army entered the town of Zawtar Al-Gharbiyah, north of the Litani River, at dawn on Tuesday, marking the first practical implementation of the pilot zones established under the…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
President Ortega said #Nicaragua won’t be holding elections soon, underscoring his efforts to extend his nearly 20 year rule. www.npr.org/2026/07/21/n...
npr.org
Nicaragua's President Ortega says no more elections, extending his 20-year rule
The announcement effectively canceled Nicaragua's next elections, originally scheduled for November 2027.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Antonio Guterres will become the first UN secretary-general to visit #Syria since 2009 when he travels there this week for meetings with officials and to endorse the political changes in the country since Assad fell www.arabnews.com/node/2651814...
arabnews.com
Antonio Guterres to visit Syria; first by a UN secretary-general since 2009
Antonio Guterres will become the first UN secretary-general to visit Syria since 2009 when he travels there this week for meetings with officials and to endorse the political changes in the country…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
“Over the past year Syrian authorities have seized over 80m captagon pills. Some are Assad-era stockpiles. But new production plants are being built, too. Most are in Sweida, a southern province dominated by #Druze militias that have clashed with government forces.” www.economist.com/middle-east-...
economist.com
Ahmed al-Sharaa is quashing Syria’s vast captagon trade
But pills that cost cents to produce still sell for $25
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
In mine and Gabriella Tejeda's latest for the Soufan Center, we discuss how the recent #Venezuelan earthquakes have highlighted the deep-seated political and economic vulnerabilities in the country, in light of the U.S. regime change operation in January 2026. thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
thesoufancenter.org
Earthquake Creates Big Test for Venezuela’s New Government
Two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela in late June, with the death toll reaching over 3,500 so far, as thousands of survivors find themselves suddenly displaced. Even amidst rescue efforts, the…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I spoke with Shams TV about the #NATO summit in #Ankara shams.tv/ar/%D8%A8%D8...
shams.tv
نافذة أوروبا - الجزء الأول | موسكو تصعد عسكريا وزيلينسكي يطالب الناتو بقرارات حاسمة قبل القمة
موسكو تمطر كييف بالنار عشية قمة أنقرة، وزيلينسكي يطالب الناتو بقرارات حاسمة. والاتحاد الأوروبي يعيد رسم خريطة التوسع ويمهد الطريق أمام أوكرانيا ودول البلقان، فيما يعيد احتكاك عسكري في بحر النرويج…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I tell Al Jazeera that the elements within #Sharaa’s core constituency and former #HTS circle could feasibly mount a campaign against the new administration and al-Sharaa individually, if they continue to experience grievances over a more moderate agenda. www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/202...
aljazeera.com
Syria grapples with unrest as government faces old and new threats
Damascus shaken by twin blasts during Macron's visit, marking heightened threats to Syria's fragile stability
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
A year after Assad's fall, Syria's #captagon trade hasn't disappeared, it's mutated. Our new report for New Lines Institute traces how a regime-run narco-monopoly worth billions has splintered into a decentralized industry embedded in #Syria's postwar economy. newlinesinstitute.org/global-secur...
newlinesinstitute.org
Captagon Creeps into Syria's Contested Areas - New Lines Institute
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of New Lines Institute. Photo: Captagon pills seized in Syria. (Abobaker Alsaka/Anadolu via Getty…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I told the New Arab that “there are a number of groups with a hostile attitude towards the Syrian government, including #ISIS, #Assad-affiliated elements, #Druze groups, #Hezbollah-linked cells and even hardcore Islamist elements within the government’s constituency.” www.newarab.com/analysis/bom...
newarab.com
The bombing that overshadowed Macron’s historic Syria visit
In-Depth: Macron’s visit was intended to signal a new chapter in Syria’s diplomatic revival. The bombings were a symbolic message to undermine those efforts
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I spoke with Amwaj media about how a deployment in Iraqi Kurdistan would mark a new level of relations between federal #Iraqi authorities and the #KRG. Strikes on critical hydrocarbon production sites since Feb. 28 had exposed the vulnerability of these installations. amwaj.media/en/article/c...
amwaj.media
Can Baghdad's air defense umbrella bring US oil back to Iraqi Kurdistan?
Several years of intermittent regional conflict appears to be bringing Baghdad and Erbil closer together amid high-level negotiations to deploy air defense systems in the Kurdistan region. The…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
“#American, #Lebanese, and other leaders should recognize #Hizballah’s hybrid, transnational nature and grapple with the unique challenges the organization creates. Otherwise, they will fail to resolve the Hizballah predicament.” buff.ly/FVC8fwJ
home.treasury.gov
The Hizballah Predicament: Why An Integrated Approach Is Necessary
What can leaders do about a transnational organization that is a militia, a political party, a social services network, and a smuggling operation at the
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I told Arab News that “I don’t think we will see the prewar levels of maritime traffic through the #StraitOfHormuz again, as shipping companies and countries are now in a race to diversify and identify alternative routes.” buff.ly/DvqkGhQ
arabnews.com
What does the US-Iran agreement reveal about the true winners and losers of the war?
Get the latest breaking news and headlines from the largest Arab News website. Get world news, sport news, business news, entertainment, lifestyle, video and photos.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
OFAC and FinCen have announced several actions targeting fuel smuggling operations linked to #CJNG, including the sanctioning of 2 #Mexican nationals and 9 entities linked to CJNG fuel theft. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
“DEA agents repeatedly monitored shipments of #fentanyl pills — but did not seize them — as federal prosecutors sought to bring bigger criminal cases against traffickers of a synthetic opioid that the White House last year designated a WMD.” apnews.com/article/dea-...
apnews.com
Staggering amounts of fentanyl hit streets as the DEA watched and took no action, records show
According to current and former DEA agents and records reviewed by The Associated Press, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration allowed hundreds of thousands of fentanyl pills to hit the streets of…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
In my latest, I note that while IS remains territorially defeated in Iraq and Syria, emerging gaps in the region’s security landscape have incentivized the group to change its modus operandi. Big thanks to Aaron Zelin who provided context for this piece. thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
thesoufancenter.org
Not Resurgence, but Recalibration: ISIS in Syria
Syria is experiencing a second wave of Islamic State (IS) activity this year, with a recent barrage of attacks against a diverse array of governmental, infrastructural, and political targets. In just…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
I spoke with Al Qahera News about how there are few alternatives to the #StraitOfHormuz, though recent escalation has incentivized countries and companies to begin exploring creative options that bypass the Strait
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
I spoke with Arab News about the fragility of the #StraitOfHormuz. I don’t think we will see the prewar levels of maritime traffic through the strait again, as shipping companies and countries are now in a race to diversify and identify alternative routes. www.arabnews.com/node/2647883...
arabnews.com
What does the US-Iran agreement reveal about the true winners and losers of the war?
Get the latest breaking news and headlines from the largest Arab News website. Get world news, sport news, business news, entertainment, lifestyle, video and photos.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
I spoke with Shams TV about my concerns regarding the sustainability of the #U.S.-Iran MoU now.asharq.com/clips/181315...
now.asharq.com
هل تخرج طهران منتصرة من مذكرة التفاهم مع إدارة ترمب؟ | NOW الشرق
مذكرة التفاهم بين أميركا وإيران تثير جدلا بالداخل الأميركي وسط تساؤلات عن مكاسب واشنطن واستبعاد لتغيير سلوك طهران أو التزامها بوقف التصعيد.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
The latest Soufan Center issue brief from Wassim Nasr argues that although #JNIM still serves as the primary jihadist group in the Sahel, #ISSP’s evolution and operational maturity is reshaping the balance of power in the region. thesoufancenter.org/research/the...
thesoufancenter.org
The Islamic State’s Growing Footprint in the Sahel
The Islamic State (IS) has been active in the Sahel region for more than a decade and has entered a new phase as it seeks to consolidate its territorial control in the region. Since 2022, the…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
“The drug economy is highly embedded in #Afghanistan and its neighbouring states, with production and #trafficking networks already well established. The diversification of Afghan drug production into #syntheticdrugs was therefore only a small step to take.” www.talkingdrugs.org/from-golden-...
talkingdrugs.org
From Golden Crescent to Crystal Crescent: The Making of Balochistan’s New Meth Economy - TalkingDrugs
After the Taliban's crackdown on drugs, Afghanistan's meth industry has found a new home in Pakistan's Balochistan region.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
I spoke with Al Arabiya about the latest in the #Iran war
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
In my latest intelligence briefing for the Soufan Center, I flag a trend across #Africa: the establishment of synthetic drug laboratories, facilitated by Mexican criminal groups such as the #Sinaloa and #CJNG cartels. Why are we seeing this shift? I explain: thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
soufangroup-my.sharepoint.com
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Hassan Daqqou, a “notorious Syrian-Lebanese trafficker widely known as the #Captagon King, has been released from a #Lebanese prison after completing a seven-year sentence for drug manufacturing and trafficking.” www.occrp.org/en/news/leba...
occrp.org
Lebanon Releases ‘Captagon King’ After Seven-Year Sentence
Lebanon's notorious “Captagon King,” Hassan Daqqou, has walked free from a Beirut prison after serving a seven-year sentence. He is still under international sanctions and his ties to the Assad…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
I tell Arab News that “US and Israeli escalation against #Iran has put both the Iranian economy and security under immense strain, but we cannot definitely state that this will be an existential threat to the regime’s survival.” arab.news/vmu27
arab.news
Analysis: How long can Iran’s regime fight on?
LONDON: When the US and Israel launched their joint attack on Iran on Feb. 28, some 59 percent of gamblers on the controversial predictions site Polymarket wagered the Iranian regime would survive…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Colin Clarke writes that #Europe is becoming #Iran’s playground for terrorism: “The strategy behind such attacks is to rely on a country’s vulnerabilities. Once an agent lights a fuse, a host country can supply the rest." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
My latest Intel Brief discusses how #Iran-linked networks are outsourcing violence. Iran-sponsored militias are using local gangs to carry out attacks. Recently, a Swedish crime group #Foxtrot recruited a Norwegian teenager for a UK assassination plot. thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
thesoufancenter.org
Swedish Crime Group Foxtrot Adds Fuel to Iran’s Proxy War in Europe
On March 19, UK law enforcement broke into a hotel room in West Yorkshire to arrest a 19-year-old Norwegian national, Johannes Natland, planning to assassinate a UK-based target. Police announced…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
In just two years, at least four major labs have been directly linked with #Mexico-based criminal syndicates with raids leading to arrests of several Mexican nationals. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/...
aljazeera.com
How Mexican cartels turned South Africa’s farms into meth production hubs
Raids on South African farms have uncovered meth labs linked to Mexican networks, signalling a new cartel phase.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
“#Jordan's state security court on Sunday sentenced to death a drug dealer convicted of killing three security personnel when they arrived to arrest him in the east of #Amman.” www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...
thenationalnews.com
Jordan sentences drug dealer to death for killing three security personnel | The National
Killing in tribal area shook the kingdom, a market and main conduit for narcotics in the region
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
“The World Bank has announced a $900 million financing package for #Iraq to improve its road infrastructure, including links to neighboring #Turkiye, #Syria, and #Jordan.” www.arabnews.com/node/2646197...
arabnews.com
$900m deal to improve Iraq’s road infrastructure
BAGHDAD: The World Bank has announced a $900 million financing package for Iraq to improve its road infrastructure, including links to neighboring Turkiye, Syria, and Jordan. Iraq is, after many…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
“#Syria's Interior Ministry has arrested Ghassan Assaf, a former Assad regime officer. He faces accusations of civilian abuses in the western #Aleppo countryside during the civil war, as well as recruiting terrorist cells and inciting unrest after 2024. www.arabnews.com/node/2646416...
arabnews.com
Syria postpones Hajj return flights as Iran, Israel resume fighting
LONDON: Syrian authorities postponed all flights scheduled for Monday to transport pilgrims from Madinah in Saudi Arabia to the airports in Aleppo and Damascus due to the resumption of fighting…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
“#Syrian authorities postponed all flights scheduled for Monday to transport pilgrims from Madinah in #SaudiArabia to the airports in Aleppo and Damascus due to the resumption of fighting between #Iran and #Israel.” www.arabnews.com/node/2646416...
arabnews.com
Syria postpones Hajj return flights as Iran, Israel resume fighting
LONDON: Syrian authorities postponed all flights scheduled for Monday to transport pilgrims from Madinah in Saudi Arabia to the airports in Aleppo and Damascus due to the resumption of fighting…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
I spoke with Al Arabiya about the latest developments in the war with #Iran.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
I spoke with AJSyriaNowN about Tom Barrack’s expanding role in #Syria and #Iraq www.facebook.com/reel/3468095...
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
“Despite the rising body count off the South American coast, researchers say cocaine is as easy to get in many parts of the United States as it was before the strikes began.” www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/w...
nytimes.com
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
In the Soufan Center's latest Intelligence Brief, I outline that the U.S.’ next foreign policy focus will be on #Cuba following the Iran war. thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
thesoufancenter.org
The U.S. is Setting its Sights on Cuba
On Friday, the head of the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), General Francis L. Donovan, met with numerous Cuban military commanders in a rare engagement about operational readiness and perimeter…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Colin Clarke and Chris Costa write for the Cipher Brief that to counter hybrid threats, European “intelligence sharing can no longer remain confined to elite classified exchanges between a handful of services.” www.thecipherbrief.com/partner-appr...
thecipherbrief.com
From Terror Networks to Hybrid Threats: A Partner Approach to a Growing Threat
The hybrid threat challenge facing Europe today is reminiscent of the terrorist threat challenge of the post-9/11 Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) era. Because of that similarity, the alliance should…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Our intelligence agencies are locking horns, with agencies like the CIA withholding collaborations and participation in assessments over the #IranWar. We've seen this movie before. It does not turn out well. www.reuters.com/legal/govern...
reuters.com
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
“Gold prices fell on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions pushed the dollar and oil prices higher, fueling fears of inflation and reinforcing the higher-for-longer interest rate outlook.” www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/g...
cnbc.com
Gold falls as renewed Middle East tensions fuel inflation fears
Gold fell as ​renewed U.S.-Iran tensions pushed the ​dollar and oil ​higher, fueling fears of inflation and reinforcing a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
"Iran’s ability to close the #StraitOfHormuz represents a more usable and powerful deterrent than a nuclear weapon, according to Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center." www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/...
aljazeera.com
US, Iran trade new attacks amid talks: Here’s what we know
Washington and Tehran are attacking each other despite a ceasefire that came into effect on April 8.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
“Tehran shows no sign of surrender" and "calculates that rising global oil prices and product shortages will force Donald Trump to end the conflict without obtaining the major concessions, particularly nuclear ones, that he seeks," analyzes the Soufan Center. www.dw.com/fr/apres-cou...
dw.com
En Iran, Internet n’est pas encore libre trois mois après
Après une coupure d'Internet qui a duré 88 jours, l'accès à Internet est à nouveau partiellement disponible en Iran. De nombreux services fonctionnent de manière limitée.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
#Iran has partially restored internet access after a months-long government shutdown, but Iranians remain wary as speeds lag, apps stay restricted, and the threat of another blackout looms. www.npr.org/2026/05/28/g...
npr.org
Iranians are back online after a monthslong shutdown but face heavy restrictions
Iranians began to regain internet access after authorities ended a monthslong shutdown. Users said service was slow and spotty in some areas, with apps like YouTube and Instagram heavily restricted.
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Tribeca fishing agency reported drone attacks on three tankers in the #BlackSea off the northern coast of #Turkey www.arabnews.com/node/2645208...
arabnews.com
Three tankers reportedly attacked by drones in Black Sea, shipping agency says
ISTANBUL: ‌Drone attacks were reported on three tankers in the Black Sea on Thursday near Turkiye’s northern coast, shipping agency Tribeca said. The tanker James II, sailing under the Palau flag and…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
“An Australian mother of four has been held in custody after she appeared in a court charged with traveling to #Syria and joining #ISIS.” www.arabnews.com/node/2645228...
arabnews.com
Australian woman held in custody on charges of traveling to Syria to join Daesh group
MELBOURNE: An Australian mother of four was held in custody after she appeared in a court on Thursday charged with traveling to Syria and joining the Daesh group. Rayann El Houli, 34, was arrested at…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
“Right-wing extremism has been removed from the US's new counterterrorism strategy. This could have major consequences for the security of Europe and Sweden, writes Mollie Saltskog, a security policy analyst.” www.svd.se/a/JOlBaX/hog...
svd.se
”USA-strategin mot terrorism är farlig”
DEBATT. Högerextremism har tagits bort i USA:s nya strategi för terrorbekämpning. Det kan få stora följder även för Europas och Sveriges säkerhet, skriver Mollie Saltskog, säkerhetspolitisk…
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
I spoke with Asharq News about #Israel’s ongoing operations in southern #Lebanon now.asharq.com/clips/181070...
now.asharq.com
النووي الإيراني وهرمز.. ملفات معقدة تعرقل الاتفاق المرتقب | NOW الشرق
مفاوضات أميركا وإيران تواجه تعثرا بسبب الخلاف على النووي والعقوبات والنفوذ الإقليمي وسط تضارب بشأن فرص الاتفاق النهائي. المزيد من التفاصيل على منصة الشرق Now
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carolinerose8.bsky.social @carolinerose8.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
“But with little fresh insight into the ‌progress of peace talks and a flare-up of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, currency markets are in wait-and-see mode.” www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/d...
cnbc.com
Dollar in holding pattern as markets await progress on Middle East peace talks
Investors ⁠awaited developments in Middle East peace talks and U.S. jobs data later this week that could shape the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
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