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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

The terms of reference show who led the study and is responsible for its output, but not who authored it or otherwise contributed to it - www.gov.uk/government/p...

Leadership

The government has appointed Professor Peter Fonagy to chair this review, supported by Professor Sir Simon Wessely and Professor Gillian Baird as vice-chairs and an advisory working group of cross-system leadership and experience. The chair has overall responsibility for the review and its outputs.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

There are more than 700 special schools over capacity. Nearly 200 of those are at 120% PAN or higher. But DfE wants LAs to curb future supply increases now. Not in three years, when reforms will kick in. Now

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

And at the same time, it looks like supply suppression is the policy lever of choice The DfE says (privately) that they will rate this as exemplary practice for the SEND reform plans that each LA has to submit in order to get deficit relief this autumn h/t schoolsweek.co.uk/revealed-dfe...

Extract from a Department for Education benchmarking tool sent to local authorities in early 2026

8. Other Funding. B) Capital

Strategy includes little to no plans to increase special school or AP capacity; any minimal plans are accompanied by a compelling rationale as to why need cannot be met in specialist bases

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

This firm does a lot of SEND business for local authorities: the introduction of ISPs and the proposal to make settings legally responsible for delivering EHCPs will effectively quadruple their SEND market But they work for the gatekeepers, so they can’t be exploitative, can they?

Excerpt from a press release from legal firm Browne Jacobson

Given that more than 60% of SEND appeals last year at least partly related to placement, this is a significant change to the existing legal rights that parents have. As a result, they may seek to make further complaints and claims to schools, in relation to their SEND provision, under the Equality Act 2010 instead.

“The eye of the storm on SEND disputes therefore looks set to move from local authorities to schools.”

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

A tale of two Times SEND stories on X, the everything app: same paper, same journalist, 48 hours apart Story about spending on equine therapy - 136,000 views, 111 RTs, 95 comments, many foam-flecked Story about 20+ system-induced teen suicides - 4,000 views, 30 RTs, 7 mostly scornful comments

Story 1 by Max Kendix of The Times, tweet posted at 14:35 on Friday 20 February

Councils forced to spend £20k a year for a single child to receive horse therapy to help with special educational needs

EHCPs used for therapy alpacas, dogs, angling, and aerial arts. Costs of horse-related spending alone is £1.9m across 22 councils this year, for 119 cases

Second story by Max Kendix, tweet posted on 22 February

Times investigation: They had special educational needs. The state failed them so badly that they took their own lives

We uncover the stories of 20 young people whose recent deaths are blamed on failures by schools, councils and hospitals to give them the support they needed

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

There’ll be lots of references to different pots of SEND funding today: some new, some not. Here’s a table showing recent announcements

Inclusive Mainstream Fund
E1.6bn
2026-2029
Broad inclusive provision funding

Experts at Hand
E1.8bn
2026-2029 LA-commissioned specialist
support services (eg EP, SALT, OT)

Best Start Family Hubs (SEND
Offer)
£200m
Unclear Equip hubs with SEND support /
outreach offer

Teacher Training for SEND
£200m
2026-2029 Training course across multiple
stas of SEND for all teaching

High Needs Provisional Capital
Allocation
£3.74bn
2025-2030 SEND capital funding (infrastructure, buildings) to create around 60,000 "specialist places," plus "inclusion bases" for
all secondary schools

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 22/02/2026

I’m only a simple SEND parent who feels things. I don’t understand big complicated policy concepts like ‘perverse incentives’ or ‘unintended consequences’ But if you make pledges like this, & you don’t implement your reforms for 3-4 years, how exactly do you expect people to respond from 2026-2030?

Excerpt from Observer article

Whitehall sources stressed that the Send reforms would be phased in slowly and that the initial priority would be to improve facilities and support in mainstream schools.

“It’s not at this stage about taking anything away from anybody,” one official said. “Every child who is in a special school will stay there and every child with a plan will keep it.”

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

“remember, there are always two sides to a debate”

Photo of the outside of a building, with a sign reading “GRADUATE SCHOOL OF JOURNALISM”

Photo of a bearded guy in a library, surrounded by books on his desk, concentrating hard

Stock photo of a university degree graduation ceremony, with mortar boards and scrolls raised high

Facebook journo request

***SENSITIVE SUBJECT***

£150 / ANONYMOUS INTERVIEW: MUM WHO'S CONCERNED HER CHILD'S SCHOOL BUDGET IS BEING SPENT ON PUPILS WITH SPECIAL EDUCATIONAL NEEDS

This is a sensitive and divisive subject, but please keep comments civil and remember there are always two sides to a debate.

Are there other, more important things you feel the school should be spending money on? For example, urgent repairs to the building/s, vastly improved food for the children, more books, computers, sports equipment etc.

If you'd be happy to chat to me anonymously, please get in touch at [email redacted] with more details and your phone number.

Key details will be altered to protect your identity and you will have copy approval.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15551307/Town-hall-spending-support-special-needs-pupils-SEND-soars-nearly-two-thirds-six-years-fastest-rise-wealthier-areas-report-finds-prompting-calls-urgent-overhaul.html

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Assuming no garble in translation (unlikely tbf) it would affect almost all kids in m/s, the vast majority of kids in state special (see graph), & even many/most kids in the independent sector www.specialneedsjungle.com/send-funding...

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

Per OBR, LAs are set to rack up a further £8bn of DSG deficit before Whitehall takes direct responsibility for SEND £ in April 2028 "Further support" (tbc) will come, although "LAs can expect that we will continue to take an appropriate & proportionate approach, though it will not be unlimited"

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

The DfE's Safety Valve SEND financial intervention scheme is ending, although LAs will be sent all the useful lessons and best practice learned from that exercise Unclear what happens to the £1.1m of SV consultants still on contract with DfE

Screengrab from TV comedy show The Thick of It, where Tory minister Peter Mannion says 'Farewell, our shit and useless servant'

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

Looks like Whitehall will absorb 90% of local authority cumulative DSG deficits racked up until March 2026 [conditions apply] That'll be roughly £6 billion absorbed, with a remaining ~£600m for LAs to find down the back of the sofa before April 2028

Extract from local government financial settlement

2. Special Educational Needs and Disabilities
(SEND): Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG)
Deficits
2.1.1 The government is committed to supporting local authorities with their DSG deficits as
we transition to a reformed SEND system. We will introduce support for local authorities in
phases. The first phase will address historic deficits accrued up to the end of 2025‑26. All local
authorities with a SEND deficit will be eligible in 2026-27 to receive a High Needs Stability
Grant covering 90% of their High Needs-related DSG deficit accrued up to the end of 2025-
26.
2.1.2 We will confirm the detail on further support for deficits arising in 2026‑27 and 2027‑28
before the accounting override set out in Regulation 30L of The Local Authorities (Capital
Finance and Accounting) (England) Regulations 2003 (“the Statutory Override”) ends from 1
April 2028. From 2028-29, SEND spending will be covered by the overall government DEL
budget, meaning local authorities are not expected to fund future SEND costs from general
funds, once the Statutory Override ends at the end of 2027-28

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Yeah - almost regardless of how this might be happening (disinterest at one end, or hubris at the other), it’s hard to see this line as positive

The Department of Health and Social Care is involved in parts of special educational needs and disabilities (Send) provision, although the plans have been led and documents written almost entirely within the Department for Education.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

More on that groundbreaking’dual-badged’ presentation idea from *checks notes* the Tory 2022 SEND & AP Green Paper

Creating a single national system that has high aspirations and ambitions for children and
young people with SEND and those in alternative provision, which is financially
sustainable, is not a straightforward task. However, the reward for getting this right is
huge: children and young people supported to succeed and thrive for generations to
come.
We are committed to continuing to listen to children, young people, parents, carers, and
those who advocate for and work with them, as well as system leaders, to achieve this
ambition. We encourage you to reflect on the proposals set out in this green paper and
respond to our consultation. Together, we can ensure every child and young person with
SEND, and all those in alternative provision, can thrive and be well prepared for adult life.
Nadhim Zahawi Sajid Javid
Secretary of State for Education Secretary of State for Health and Social Care

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

ps ‘low-ability,’ my arse

Photo of the back of my eldest kid’s head on his masters’ graduation day. He’s profoundly deaf. His graduation robes are visible, as is his cochlear implant

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

And another one, no idea whether this is circular sourcing or not, but apparently govt ‘is understood to be rebuilding the funding system from scratch’ inews.co.uk/news/educati...

Still from HBO series Chernobyl, where engineers Akimov and Toptunov stare open-mouthed at the display in the control room of Unit 4, post-explosion

Both subsequently die from acute radiation syndrome

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

“I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace”

Album cover by French grindcore band Anal Chaos. The album is called ‘An Evening with Anal Chaos’

The four band members are in 1970s lounge suits, standing awkwardly on a stage. The three men are wearing white suits with red shirts, the woman is wearing a red suit with a white shirt.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

Upper-tier LA finance officers rn

TV screen grab from the pandemic period. Then-US President Joe Biden is speaking at a lectern, the subtitles say

I HAVE ORDERED MORE PILLS THAN ANYONE IN THE WORLD HAS

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

Provisional local govt financial settlement & DSG/SEND deficits: £3.8bn now, est £14bn in 2028 “We will provide further detail on our plans to support local authorities with historic & accruing [DSG] deficits & conditions for accessing such [unspecified] support later in the Settlement process.”

Front of an evangelical church, displaying a large sign in white lettering on a blue background:

JESUS CHRIST THE SAME YESTERDAY, TODAY AND FOREVER

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

This is the current national picture for high-needs revenue funding allocation to mainstream SEND units and resource bases. The grant announced late last night helps build things. But buildings don't teach kids, staff do that - and the funding variations between LAs are immense

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

The Sutton Trust mentions ‘SEND hubs’ only once in their report & they don’t define the term, so it’s basically choose-your-own-adventure www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/u...

Policy makers should consider how to increase
capacity in mainstream schools so that they
can better support all pupils. This could be for
example effective partnership working with
other services or supporting schools to
introduce SEND Hubs with ongoing support to
implement them effectively.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Thanks Isabelle - you might also find this post worthwhile, looking at the insane variation in SEN unit / RB funding - some are funded better than special, others are funded on a beanbag room & single TA basis www.specialneedsjungle.com/send-funding...

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

More detail here - unclear whether all participants in this 'conversation' will have their written input rammed through a LLM; there's a document on the online sessions that looks more promising consult.education.gov.uk/digital-comm...

Why are we engaging?

We want to have an open conversation on points and ideas organisations have raised to help inform how we shape the policy in the White Paper. This is not a formal consultation. A public consultation on some aspects of our SEND plans will be launched alongside publication of the Schools White Paper.

To help process and analyse responses efficiently, we may use artificial intelligence (AI) tools to identify themes, trends, and patterns in the comments received. All AI generated outputs will be reviewed and validated by experienced analysts to ensure accuracy and context. AI will not make decisions or recommendations. Its role is purely to support human-led analysis.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

So the £6bn part of this alleged 'SEND timebomb' might not exist, because there might not be any extra deficit for Whitehall to mop up from April 2028, for reasons DfE won't explain Their rebuttal is basically a Simpsons meme

Simpsons screengrab, where Disco Stu points to an exponentially increasing area chart labelled "Disco Record Sales" from 1973 to 1977, apparently unaware that disco will become as popular as Ebola from the early 1980s onwards

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

If you're still awake & haven't committed seppuku yet, April 2028 is when the combined DSG deficit leaves its limbo state and lands.... somewhere It's not clear where, but government will apparently announce its fate at the local government provisional settlement in a week or 2 But LAs are nervous

Local Government Association press release: Responding to the Government saying it will fund the full cost of SEND provision from within central government departmental spending from 2028/29, Cllr Amanda Hopgood, Chair of the Local Government Association’s Children, Young People and Families Committee, said:

“While it is positive government has committed to absorbing the costs of SEND spending from 2028/29 – and we look forward to clarity on how this will be funded – this does not address existing deficits, which are pushing many councils to the financial brink.

“In the provisional Local Government Finance Settlement, we urge the Government to write off these deficits - both the current accumulated deficits and any future deficits expected up to and including 2028/29 - and to fully fund all associated costs such as home to school transport over this period, ahead of setting out wider, comprehensive reform of the SEND system in the Schools White Paper.”

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

This is the combined DSG deficit that's being accumulated over time by councils. It was £2.2bn in April 2024. From published out-turn data, I think it'll be £3.8bn in April 2025. And my best guess for April 2026 is a £6.1bn deficit OBR's best guess for April 2028? £14 billion

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

The DSG deficits sit in accounting limbo. Until y'day, they were due to land back on council balance sheets in April 2028, which would have wrecked / further wrecked many councils' financial position The 'switch' here is that central govt will now pick up the tab for *in year* deficits from 2028

Extension of the Dedicated Schools Grant Statutory Override – The government will set out substantial plans for reform of special educational needs provision early in the new year to deliver a sustainable system which – first and foremost – supports children and families effectively. The 2025 Spending Review provided investment for SEND reform. Future funding implications will be managed within the overall government DEL envelope, such that the government would not expect local authorities to need to fund future special educational needs costs from general funds, once the Statutory Override ends at the end of 2027-28. The government will set out further details on its plans to support local authorities with historic and accruing deficits and conditions for accessing such support through the upcoming Local Government Finance Settlement.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

This figure is bollocks. Although no-one knows exactly how much central & local government spend on SEND, it's at least a 50% underestimate, easily checked. The £6 billion figure they refer to - and the thing that will be 'switched' - is something else

The government will take over full responsibility for special educational needs spending from local councils, it was revealed at the budget, prompting warnings that the Department for Education could be facing a £20bn timebomb in two years.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said the annual costs of special educational needs and disability (Send) spending in England would reach £6bn a year by 2028, increasing the urgency of a potentially decisive overhaul of Send provision in a schools white paper expected early next year.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Same goes for special schools: you'd expect more variation here, but it's very, very obvious that some schools catering for the same needs get £000,000s less funding than neighbours in other LAs, because of the vibes-based approach Lowest band - zero (just £10k place funding) Highest band - £83,100

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Mainstream SEND units seem to be the great white hope / white whale of reform We looked at banded funded arrangements for these - same story, a Caligulan goat orgy of confusion Lowest rate of high-needs top-up = zero (several LAs) Highest rate = ~£36,000

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

But it's hard to see how that pledge can be met - because the level of variation and dysfunction in SEND funding allocations across LAs almost defies belief. Check this graph - 100 current LA systems for mainstream banded funding, grouped by region: like a spider on crack walked across the page

A high-mid-low stock chart, but showing 100 mainstream high-needs SEND funding allocation systems. Too complex to explain, and no point trying - it's complete chaos

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

This pressure (& suppressive financial intervention policies) means that at a per-pupil level, real-terms cuts are being inflicted on schools high-needs allocations Most LAs dole this out via banded funding systems. The graph shows changes to band values since 2023: 96% of LAs made real-terms cuts

Bar graph showing median changes to local authority high needs banding values from April 2023 to March 2026. The graph also shows a line marking inflation over this period (10.2%)

106 of 110 local authorities made real-term cuts to their high needs banding values - mostly by keeping band values unchanged, or by making tiny increase to them

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Most local authorities run a deficit on their DSG funding blocks (usually because of high-needs funding shortages) - the deficit is growing more quickly than DfE predictions End March 2025 = ~£3.8 billion (provisional) End March 2026 = >£6.1 billion (forecast)

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Nobody knows how much money is spent on SEND provision each year. This graph just covers the education side People call the red bit 'the SEND budget' - but most pupils w SEND have most of their provision funded out of the blue bit, including mainstream pupils with an EHCP. Amount is unclear

Bar graph showing breakdown of the Dedicated Schools Grant, which is made up of 4 blocks

Schools Block (blue bar) - £48.7 billion - 71% of the DSG - some of it is used to fund mainstream SEND provision

High Needs Block (red bar) - £11.2 billion - 16% of the DSG - almost all of it used to fund mainstream and specialist SEND provision

Early Years Block (pink bar) - £8.4 billion - 12% of the DSG - some used to fund SEND provision in early years

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Loving the spad energy here: ‘no-one has our courage, although we aren’t saying how we’ve grasped this nettle, or even whether we might have grasped a Venus fly trap by mistake’

A Labour source said: "This government has grasped the nettle on Send in a way in which no other party has had the courage to do, and we will make no apology in taking the time to get this right - and we will.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

Sounds like a really awkward situation. If only there was some way to avoid it

Lenehan said: “Government is taking a while, probably longer than you hoped, to get its plans right. And in the midst of that, there’s a lot of planning, a lot of thinking, a lot of testing, does this work, does that work with what we’re trying to do?”

But she said it has caused a “vacuum of information”, which means “at least two thirds of the stuff that I read is not true”.

Lenehan had previously told Schools Week that officials are considering a shake up of the education, health and care plan system that would likely lead to a narrowing or new structure of support as part of reforms.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Incredible Waitrose’s-tasting-notes-for-Special-Brew energy

2016 photo of a booze section in Waitrose, a high-end English supermarket. The photo shows a card that describes Carlsberg Special Brew, a notoriously strong and rough lager that’s stereotypically drunk only by alcoholics

The card says ‘Stronger lager with cognac flavour. Full bodied, fruity tasting with a good clean bitterness’

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

It's presumably intended to reassure, but the energy given off is basically this

“We will look at this issue in the round and make sure that there’s adequate food supplies,” Raab told the Brexit select committee. “It would be wrong to describe it as the government doing the stockpiling … of course the idea that we only get food imports into this country from one continent is not appropriate.”

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

"Prepare for Bottzkrieg - all out bottom inspection!" archive.org/details/vizu...

Six panels from the August 1986 edition of Viz magazine

Panel 1 - "DESTINATION X"

Panel 2 - inside of an old-fashioned train carriage compartment. A family chat: "The countryside is so beautiful, isn't it love?" "Yes dear, it's so good to be away from the big city, all the noise and dirt!"

Panel 3: Mum talking to son "I feel like nothing can go wrong on a day like today!" "Mummy! The train's slowing down!"

Panel 4: Close-up on dad, saying "Funny, there isn't a station in sight and we seem to be stopping!"

Panel 5: Outside and in front of the train: we see the back of a uniformed officer, shouting "HALT! HALT! Stop the Train" - "All right men..."

Panel 6: All four Bottom Inspectors in close-up, cackling evilly: - "Prepare for Bottzkrieg - all out BOTTOM INSPECTION!" "Yes, Bottomdant Leyburn, heh heh" "Ho ho ho" "Ha Ha"

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Yes, it's dull, but documents like this - deliberately, or inadvertently - reveal what big bureaucracies really care about (side note: worth noting that DfE has downgraded the risk of placement market failure for looked-after children, no idea why but paging @martinbarrow.bsky.social anyway)

Several risks identified in last year’s ARA (local authority financial challenges, social worker capacity and looked after children placement market failure) are now managed at a lower level following a reassessment of their risk ratings. While the risks are still present, they are no longer considered principal risks so cease to be disclosed here.

This year, five principal risks or issues are reported against six last year. Ratings for schools and further education workforce, education estates and cyber security remain stable and unchanged from March 2024. High needs cost pressures have worsened and materialised into an issue. The risk of higher education financial failure is a new principal risk, escalated to the top-tier this year.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

This is such a badly framed and articulated risk (from DfE annual report, issued today) How likely are council insolvencies, and by when? What's the impact on DfE objectives of the risk being realised? What's the impact on kids, families, schools & colleges? Doesn't say. Just word salad

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

The author has visited what looks like top-of-the-line mainstream SEND provision. Capacity & expertise like this costs. And the article's (unsourced) Whitehall kremlinology suggests that financial sustainability is going to have the greatest say over what future mainstream RPs/units look like /end

The ballooning number of EHCPs has also created a financial timebomb for councils. Most funding for special educational needs (SEN) provision comes via local authority high-needs budgets but those have been in deficit for years, with the combined shortfall estimated to now be £5bn. The only thing keeping more councils from outright insolvency has been the government allowing them to keep these deficits off their balance sheets.

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, has repeatedly said the government needs to “think differently” about special needs provision. Exactly what Phillipson means is not yet clear. The details are still being thrashed out in Whitehall, with the Treasury taking a close interest in the cost implications, and the Department for Education (DfE) struggling internally to develop coherent policy after years of neglect.

It seems likely that EHCPs will not survive in their current form, with existing plans phased out over two or more years. Ministers and officials argue that a better solution is for mainstream state schools to educate more children with special needs. That is where All Saints’ Bethlehem unit comes in.

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

It’s a good article, a side of the story that definitely needed to be told (am mildly salty about the lack of attribution here, mind: for the record, the £153m estimate includes some resource costs borne by schools on the LA’s behalf in the appeal defence process)

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

Why would schools close their SEN units & bases down in the middle of a full-blown provision crisis? Someone more clued up than me should look into it, but best guess from here: - real-terms cuts to LA 'top-up' payments make them less affordable (see graph) - schools on a quest for Outstanding 8/

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Matt Keer @captaink77.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

I asked some proper experts @fftedudatalab.bsky.social - they pointed me to this article, which shows that units & bases for autistic pupils are on the rise, whilst those for lower-incidence needs (deafness, VI, physical disabilities) are falling ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2025/03/wher... 5/

Graph from FFT Education Datalab story, showing a sharp rise in mainstream resource provision for autistic pupils, and a fall for many other types of need

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