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Reposted by Callam Pickering

Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

A record 6.9% of Australia's workers had multiple jobs in the June quarter. Ongoing cost-of-living pressures are likely to blame. Many workers are looking for more hours to keep their heads above water #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Australian job growth over the past year was concentrated in construction (+63k), healthcare & social assistance (+56k) and education & training (+48k). Agriculture, forestry & fishing was the only industry where total jobs fell #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Australia's job vacancy rate eased to 2% in the June quarter - so 2% of all jobs nationwide are unfilled. The vacancy rate has been pretty stable over the past two years and is still well above the 1.4% average from 2010-19 #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

AI still having no impact upon Australian labour productivity, which was unchanged in the June quarter and hasn't meaningfully increased in years #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

The Australian economy expanded by 0.4% in the June quarter and is 2.1% larger than a year ago #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

We are quite possibly going to create the dumbest generation of university graduates we've ever seen. And that's problematic because the people most capable of working effectively with AI are those who are subject-matter experts #ausbiz #auspol www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

economist.com

Does AI stop children from learning?

New data show the peril and promise of the technology

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Through July, Australian employment has increased 145.8k people this year. That's up from 104.9k over the same period last year, but well short of what was common in 2023 and 2024 #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Australia's unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in July - just slightly below its post-pandemic peak from April #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

6.5% of Australian workers have multiple jobs. That figure has been elevated for the past five years, reflecting the impact of the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

2.1% of Australian jobs are vacant nationwide. While that number has declined from a peak of 3.1% back in 2022, it remains well above the average vacancy rate from 2010 to 2019 (1.4%) #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Private business investment rose 6% in the March quarter, accounting for 12.6% of real GDP. That's the highest share since September 2015 #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Real GDP per capita fell by 0.1% in the March quarter and is just 1% higher than a year ago #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

What drove Aussie GDP growth in the March quarter? Both consumption and investment were pretty good, but that was offset by a decline in exports and strong growth in imports. That left real GDP growth at 0.3% in the March quarter and 2.5% over the past year #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Australia's wage price index rose 3.3% over the past year, compared to consumer prices climbing 4%. So unless you've received a promotion or changed jobs recently - and I certainly haven't - then there's a good chance your salary buys a lot less than it used to #auspol

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Reposted by Callam Pickering

Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Another sign that the graduate market is generally healthy is low job search volumes. It’s a sign that friction in the graduate job market remains relatively low. Graduates continue to find jobs quickly, requiring fewer job searches than was the case in the years before the post-pandemic job boom.

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Reposted by Callam Pickering

Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

A lot of speculation recently that AI is impacting demand for graduates leaving school. In Australia, we aren't seeing that in the data. Yes, graduate demand in occupations with high-exposure to AI have slipped, but the timing was too early to be driven by AI #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Employer demand for graduates has slipped in recent years, but remains well above pre-pandemic levels. Early signs in 2026 is that demand has stabilised, maybe even slightly improved on last year #ausbiz See more: www.hiringlab.org/au/blog/2026...

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

University fee reform is just quietly one of the dumber economic reforms this century, which is no small achievement #auspol

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Reposted by Callam Pickering

Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

The RBA is forecasting much slower economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates ... ... an yet, they expect the unemployment rate be unchanged over the course of the year. Good luck with that #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Australian productivity growth is expected to remain dismal, with the RBA downgrading its productivity forecasts yet again #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Rising fuel prices don't just hit consumers directly, but also indirectly as an input into other goods & services. Indirectly, fuel accounts for around 2-2.5% of the domestic cost of other goods & services in the CPI. Although in travel it's naturally much higher #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

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Reposted by Callam Pickering

Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Australian employment has increased by 93k people since the end of last year. So far, we are tracking much better than last year and similar to 2024, but it's highly unlikely that we will continue this momentum for the entire year #ausbiz #auspol

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Reposted by Callam Pickering

Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Australia's unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March, with employment rising by 17,900 people. The most recent RBA forecasts (Feb-26) are for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%, but that will surely be revised higher due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East #auspol #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

A lot of speculation about whether AI is coming for our jobs. In Australia, so far, that hasn't happened. 30% of Aussie job postings are in occupations with high-exposure to AI. It's been steady since mid-2023. There's nothing in the data pointing towards an AI-driven shift in hiring #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Annual growth in household spending has been pretty broad-based. Services: +5.9% Goods: +3.5% Non-discretionary spending up 4.9%, similar to discretionary spending which was 4.5% higher #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

AI can be seen everywhere, but in the productivity data. Companies in Australia – and globally for that matter – are betting big that artificial intelligence will turn this around. Clearly, that hasn’t happened yet.

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Another dismal quarter for Australian labour productivity. Unchanged in the December quarter and 1% higher than a year ago. Australian productivity is well down on its peak - which admittedly is artificially high due to the pandemic - but is practically unchanged compared to 8 years ago #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Australia's household savings rate increased to 6.9% in the December quarter - up from 6.1% the previous quarter - to be at its highest level since September 2022. It's a sign that household budgets aren't as tight as they used to be as we slowly recover from the cost-of-living crisis #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Real GDP per capita rose by 0.4% in the December quarter and is 0.9% higher than a year ago. We've now had four consecutive quarters of growth, but the measure is still 0.5% below its peak in December 2022 #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

The Australian economy expanded by 0.8% in the December quarter - above market expectations - to be 2.6% larger than a year ago. Annual growth is at its highest level since the March quarter 2023 #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Feels like the Liberal Party is simply rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. While I'm sure Taylor will claw back some insecure white male voters from ON, but if he's the best you've got you are in big trouble #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Nice graph that highlights how much economic uncertainty there is. The RBA is 70% confident that inflation will fall within the dark blue shaded area over the next couple of years. But being at the top or bottom of that shaded area would lead to very different monetary policy decisions.

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

In Australia, labour costs are elevated & productivity growth remains low. Consequently, unit labour costs - basically the cost of labour required to produce one unit of output - remains too high. When that's the case, businesses can either absorb the cost or increase prices #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

A larger-than-normal share of Australian firms report significant labour constraints. Transport, personal services and manufacturing are still well above normal levels #ausbiz

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

The latest RBA forecasts. Big upward revisions to both CPI inflation and trimmed mean inflation, which help explain the decision to hike rates. CPI: 4.2% Jun-26 (previously 3.7%) Trimmed mean: 3.7% Jun-26 (previously 3.2%) I'm of the view that inflation will ease faster than the RBA expects.

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Building approvals fell by 14.9% in December, but as you can see on the blue line, the data has been incredibly volatile in recent months. The trend data suggests that upward momentum has slowed, with building approvals down 0.2% in December. But they were still 6.9% higher than a year ago.

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

With the unemployment rate finishing the year at 4.1%, it was well below the RBA's forecasts (4.4%). The RBA updates their forecasts in February. I don't think they'll change the endpoint for 2026 (4.4%), but it might take longer to get there.

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Key labour market statistics (Dec-25): Unemployment rate: 4.1% (from 4.3% in Nov) Underemployment rate: 5.7% (from 6.1%) Underutilisation rate: 9.8% (from 10.4%) Great results, but the large monthly movements suggest to me that we'll reverse back towards trend in the next couple of months

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

In 2025, Australian employment increased by 165k - with 65k of that coming in December alone - which was well below the 392k gains in 2024. Employment growth was sluggish and ultimately pretty disappointing #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

While Australian employment growth slowed considerably in 2025, the number of vacant jobs fell by just 5.2%. The number of vacant jobs remains elevated, which will hopefully support employment growth in 2026 (even if that wasn't the case in 2025) #ausbiz

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Reposted by Callam Pickering

Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

Australian employment growth has slowed considerably this year. Employment up 130k over the first 11 months of the year, compared to +346k over the same period last year #ausbiz #auspol

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Callam Pickering @callampickering.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

While Australia's unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% (due to lower participation), other measures of labour market slack rose. The underemployment rate jumped to 6.2% (from 5.7% last month), which pushed the underutilisation rate to 10.5% (from 10.1%) #ausbiz #auspol

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