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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Thank you, Ryan. As so often, we wait and see...

BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

We are incredibly grateful to our wonderful volunteers and advisors, and their dedication and professionalism. We don't get paid for any of our IAG work.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Subscribe and get all our full analysis on our Substack: budscovidinfo.substack.com. (The paid and free subscriptions are exactly the same, but choosing a paid one gives us a small, regular donation to support our work.)

budscovidinfo.substack.com

BuDS Covid Information | Substack

Up to date, expert analysis of the Covid situation in England, UK. Click to read BuDS Covid Information, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

This is BuDS’ 292nd Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

BuDS only advises on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you. (2/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Our aim is to help Covid-Cautious people continue to engage safely in society while Covid levels are high. Obviously, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. (1/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

If SW.2 does establish itself, we might see a ‘second peak’ in February or March, or the current wave may be prolonged if SW.2 joins in and ‘fuels the fire’. Or, of course, SW.2 may become just another variant in the UK ‘soup’ without driving a wave as such. (4/4)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

SW.2 *may* cause a wave of Covid in the UK if it establishes itself as a dominant variant here. This is a big if, because population immunity is different in every country, and so it isn’t guaranteed that what happens in the US will happen in the UK. (3/4)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

However, accordingly to WHO and ECDC data, SW.2 has not appeared much in Europe or the UK yet, although it may do in the future. (2/4)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

There is a new Covid variant in the US which is increasingly driving new infections. This is variant SW.2, a mutation of XFG. It was quickly replacing XFG as the dominant variant in the US as of the summer of this year, which is the latest CDC data available. (1/4)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

XFG has been the biggest single variant in the UK since around May 2026. It’s the ‘biggest ingredient in the Covid soup’, and it’s causing a lot of infections, but it is doing so because people’s immunity to all Covid variants has waned, not because XFG is a new variant. (7/7)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

We know that this current wave is not caused by the XFG or ‘Stratus’ variant arriving for the first time in the UK, as some media claim, because the XFG variant has been circulating in Europe and the UK since the beginning of 2025, two years ago. (6/7)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Once most people have had Covid, they are temporarily unable to catch it again, so the wave quickly declines. This is what is happening in England right now, just as it happened last year. (5/7)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

This puts people with weak immunity resistance to catching Covid in the perfect indoor environment to catch Covid. And, inevitably, people do catch Covid and the wave builds until most people have had Covid. (4/7)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Firstly, Covid levels in England have been very low over the summer, so only relatively small number of people have temporary immunity against catching Covid again. Secondly, people are now meeting inside because the summer has ended. (3/7)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The current wave of Covid in England is not being driven by a new variant of Covid, from America or anywhere else. It is happening because two things have coincided. (2/7)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Many media outlets are saying that the current Covid wave in England is connected to the recent Covid wave in the US. Some reports claim that the English wave is driven by the XFG (‘Stratus’) variant, crossing from America. None of these claims are accurate. (1/7)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The BuDS Covid risk level is now High. Accordingly, we now recommend that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Tentatively, BuDS is now predicting a wave of Covid not much smaller than that in 2025, when 1 in every 103 people were infected. (2/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Covid infection levels in England are rising very steeply, and all the data is pointing in the same way. There is no sign yet of a slowing in the rate of infection or that we are nearing ‘the peak of the wave’. (1/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Influenza (flu) levels in England are also starting to very rapidly increase and there is no doubt that the winter flu wave is starting.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The Covid wave in England is growing very fast, and the overall Covid risk level has been raised to High. As of 4 October, 1 in every 175 people were infected, up 34% on the previous week. We continue to recommend that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions in ALL indoor places. A thread 🧵

Covid wave rapidly growing in England.
Risk level now High with 1 in 175 infected.
PPE masks recommended indoors.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Sorry to hear that. Make sure your doctor knows of your positive test, as having had Covid can be diagnostically very important later.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Hope you feel better soon. If you've had a positive test, please make sure it goes on your medical record. Knowing you've had Covid can be diagnostically important later on.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/...

peoplesfundraising.com

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, you can subscribe here: budscovidinfo.substack.com. (The paid and free subscriptions are exactly the same, but choosing a paid one gives us a small, regular donation to support our work.)

budscovidinfo.substack.com

BuDS Covid Information | Substack

Up to date, expert analysis of the Covid situation in England, UK. Click to read BuDS Covid Information, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This is BuDS’ 291st Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe. You can find a full list of things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection on our website or Substack (linked below in this thread).

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

BuDS only advises on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you. (2/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Our aim is to help Covid-Cautious people continue to engage safely in society as England moves through this seasonal wave of Covid. Obviously, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. (1/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

If you visit a number of small indoor places on a single day, eg local shops, your risk of meeting an infected person is much higher than it seems. Although you may only see one or two people in each visit, the total may add up to a significant number, & the indoor air may be laden with virus. (5/5)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Beware of people who meet large numbers of people in their job or life, such as receptionists, shop workers, tradespeople, etc. They are far more likely to have Covid from their encounters with other people. (4/5)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Beware of small indoor places like WCs, takeaway food outlets or parcel collection points which are used by large numbers of people over time, even if there are few in the space at any one time. (3/5)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Some people may feel that the risk is still low enough in spaces used by very small (under 10) numbers of people to not use a mask, although this can be risky. (2/5)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The BuDS Covid risk level as of 27 September was Moderately High, but by now (2 October), the risk level is probably High. Accordingly, we now recommend that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places. (1/5)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The BuDS overall Covid risk level was Moderately High, but is likely by today (2 October) to be already High. Influenza (flu) levels are also starting to rapidly increase, although they are still lower at present. There is every sign that England will have another very bad flu winter wave.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The Covid wave in England continues to grow very fast. As of 27 September, 1 in every 234 people were infected, up 31% on the previous week. We are now recommending that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places. A thread 🧵

Covid wave still rapidly rising in England.
Risk level remains Moderately High at 1 in 234.
Wear PPE masks indoors.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Donate to help us continue these risk assessments through 2026: www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/...

peoplesfundraising.com

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

budscovidinfo.substack.com

BuDS Covid Information | Substack

Up to date, expert analysis of the Covid situation in England, UK. Click to read BuDS Covid Information, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

However, the trend over the last few weeks is clear: the risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life is still rising, and the overall Risk now is almost certainly High. (1/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This is a brief update based on estimated growth of Covid in England. The NHS data on which we rely has been significantly delayed, so we cannot give you a more precise figure. (1/2)

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The Covid wave in England is likely continuing to grow, and infection levels as of 27 September were probably between 1 in 249 and 1 in 218 people infected. This is the time to take sensible precautions against catching Covid in all indoor places. A (short) thread 🧵

Covid wave likely rapidly rising in England.
Take sensible precautions in all indoor places
Update to follow when data published

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BuDS Disability Service @buds-disability.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Why are welfare cuts economically ignorant? Because cutting social security and forcing millions into crisis simply costs Government far more in crisis support than it ever spent on social security in the first place.

A blue graphic reading: "Cutting Non-Pension Welfare* Costs: Social Crisis or Emergency Help? Cutting welfare* by half puts 6.8 million more people into crisis Do you help them, or leave them to their fate? Providing emergency and crisis care would cost c£65 billion per year That’s £37 billion saved, but £65 billion extra spent Why spend a net £28 billion per year to make 6.8 million people angry and desperate?"

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