btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 30/08/2026Kind of wild to scroll replies and not see mention of how he killed 14 million people deciding we cant afford it while being the richest person on earth 0481
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 30/07/2026if the amoc collapses it would be nearly impossible to even live in Britain 011
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 29/07/2026Well how else is he supposed to keep his strong evangelical base 010
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 16/05/2026nail/head let’s remember what it means to be human 000
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 09/05/2026“massing” for scale there are like 900k active troops in ukraine 000
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026probably don’t have accurate estimates of sm-2 stockpiles either 020
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 16/04/2026maybe if your dog used formal fonts and layouts she could have smart takes like this 0160
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 14/04/2026While probably helpful to avoid WWIII, what does Trump do when he finds out from watching Fox News 010
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 08/04/2026I think near zeroing out the probability of a large scale ground invasion quagmire is worth a lot to the markets. But agree that status quo hasn’t meaningfully changed 290
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 07/04/2026media.tenor.coma woman wearing a mask and a yellow shirt is standing on a red carpetAlt: Woman dancing during myanmar coup 060
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 07/04/2026MTG and Alex Jones moved faster than @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social 000
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 07/04/2026I’m betting on an export ban post spike 010
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 06/04/2026For a guy whose brand is supposedly smart data driven commentary this is humiliating to announce youve finally come to this conclusion 040
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 05/04/2026Mendab also likely closed, which is crazy thatd just be a side point in this timeline. Global depression would be on the table 021
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 05/04/2026peculiar to have any strong criticism of the jcpoa right now. We’d have to spend 300,000 lives to get the same deal today 000
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 04/04/2026American view of war is still poisoned by when we unleashed sead, drone isr, gps systems, e-8s, thermal on armored engagements etc all against the Baath party all at once with a competent plan. That was a historically flawless war against conventional military, no other will be/was like that 041
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 03/04/2026Has to be terrifying that it’s not just going to shoot you to deep space 000
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 01/04/2026youtu.be/aIIBBj6KR-Y?... lack of imagination imo, can literally run on wateryoutu.beWhat if we put a pool on the moon?YouTube video by xkcd's What If? 010
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 01/04/2026I think an attempted raid on nuclear material is very different than island hopping or going after Kharg even though both are “boots on the ground”. The former, whether it succeeds or not, doesn’t have implications for the strait, while the latter is an absolute quagmire. Both bring in Houthis 000
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 31/03/2026I’m still convinced the mar-a-lago brain trust will see 3,000 special forces on the shelf and deploy them (probably for nuclear material). They are avengers in american culture 120
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 31/03/2026I’m starting to think the tariff otaku might not understand the benefits of freedom of navigation and free trade 010
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 30/03/2026Honestly think it would only work for 5 minutes. Boy who cried deal 001
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 29/03/2026The 3-to-1 invader advantage rule of thumb is woke. Warrior ethos will guide us 080
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 28/03/2026This is an incredible graph, great stuff. I guess there would be more barrels disrupted even if the strait were opened, because 8 million per day (?) are currently offline and would take a bit to restart. But as other comments have mentioned, so tough to model 020
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 27/03/2026Houthis hitting exactly (1) tanker in the red sea would cause a freak out right? 100
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 27/03/2026Yeah, they are routing an additional 3 million barrels per day in that direction. My numbers are rough but this in terms of percentage of global supply could easily exceed the late 70s shock that sent prices to $160-170 inflation adjusted (big difference that US huge producer now) 040
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 27/03/2026Yep, currently a route of an additional 10% of global oil supply 140
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 27/03/2026To let pete bomb some inflatable decoys 040
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Half-life on trump words/posts affecting markets is rapidly shortening 020
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 26/03/2026If only the US had some sort of deliberative body, maybe representative of the American adults, that had power to help rectify the situation 070
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 25/03/2026I expect the president to find out next wednesday 080
Reposted by @btatkinson.bsky.socialTactical Onions Vendor @inkana.bsky.social · 24/03/2026shutdown will end roughly 2 hours from now 041
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026Exactly zero chance those units have enough SHORAD for a 2026 environment 1110
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026Very possible. The only certainty is that the world economy depends on who Trump last talked to 010
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026I think I would. Gulf states would be very upset. Trump launched a 3 week war to make things demonstrably worse, despite being told every day his military is the greatest ever? That Iran’s fighting capacity is 99% destroyed? I think tolls are out of the question. Iran could use as bargaining though 100
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026If the US options are 1) de facto surrender and 2) launch a “limited” ground incursion, I’m worried that the sycophants around trump won’t readily admit to him the US can get its ass kicked through asymmetric short range fires. The 4,500 marines are chekovs gun 010
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026Not impossible under normal circumstances, impossible given Trumps ego. Another good outcome is Congress taking the keys away (which also seems impossible) 130
Reposted by @btatkinson.bsky.socialChris Murphy @chrismurphyct.bsky.social · 22/03/2026The most sacred clause in the Constitution may be the war making clause. Our founding fathers are turning in their grave watching this Republican Congress allow one man lead us into a disastrous, incompetently run war. 10237891034
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 21/03/2026The first few weeks costs $20 billion, but we need $200 billion for the next few hours 021
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 17/03/2026I always get sad about the europeans destroying the Quipus. They probably would’ve revealed an entirely different way of thinking about the world 040
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Remind me, what will republicans stand for post Trump? 2190
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 13/03/2026Very capable of a deep run this year, fun watch 100
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 13/03/2026Takes a week to get there, probably cant accomplish much once it does, and we have a 3 week clock 050
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 12/03/2026china in the late 70s is certainly informative about china in the mid 2020s 100
btatkinson.bsky.social @btatkinson.bsky.social · 12/03/2026They also seem to be arguing for killing for the sake of killing, which is the mental state of most house cats, not anything uniquely special 010
