Tariffs, health care, safety net access, labor

The first Briefing Book call for proposals - send us yours, no policy experience required!

As the Social Security trust funds get closer and closer to depletion, the window for gradual reforms is closing quickly.

Increased generosity and better targeting at adult caregivers would make a difference

Labor market commentary often discusses unemployment rates for certain groups as potential leading indicators for the overall unemployment rate. I test that idea for several commonly mentioned groups.

Homicides just hit their lowest level since 1900. The decline over the past 3 years is the fastest 3-year decline since records began. The federal stimulus during Covid may help explain why.

As Congress debates a housing law, zoning reform should be an important goal—even in some of the nation’s shrunken cities

Without regional analysis, even well-funded policies can miss their goals

When anyone can say no to new housing, developers will pay up for an automatic ‘yes’.

A forensic accounting of industrial policy effects

The One Big Beautiful Bill will cost states more while SNAP participants will receive less

The new children's savings accounts offer financial education opportunities -- but choice architecture is likely to have a bigger influence on their ability to deliver broad-based wealth accumulation.

How to safekeep banks—and the safety net—from interconnections and systemic risk

New research finds that immigrant deportations can increase crime, through reducing victim engagement with law enforcement

Artificial scarcity, entrenched incumbents, insurance expansion, Medicaid cuts, and bending the cost curve

Negative effects on labor force participation persist, as do higher rates of disability and employment among those with disabilities

Beyond scams and volatility, crypto is planting the seeds of political self-enrichment amongst the cracks of public corruption law

When the same person holds leadership or board positions at two competing companies, the companies are more likely to enter into collusive agreements

The EITC and CTC effectively deliver over $180 billion in aid annually and could still be improved

From Self-Financing to Public Investment in National Infrastructure

Survey data from Los Angeles also show that a majority of residents support new building in their neighborhoods

The fiscal challenges of an aging population matter, but the innovation and progress that could be lost in a shrinking world matter even more

Looking ahead to what’s to come.

A newly viral chart showing native-born employment levels is a multiple-count data felony. Focus instead on the native-born unemployment rate.

Small business owners and the self-employed rely on the marketplaces, and coverage is about to become less affordable

Would the rescue work?

What financial regulatory policy wonks need to know about Silicon Valley

Don’t say you didn’t see this financial crisis coming.

Strengthening the program’s future will require balancing tradeoffs of increasing revenue and reducing benefits

Student loans, unions, tariffs, and more

Why the US-UK trade deal might make both countries poorer

Analysis shows that the bill would weaken US economic, fiscal and institutional resilience

Policy matters, but don't forget the fundamentals

Trump tariffs will raise U.S. prices by 5.4% and lower real income by 0.8%. They hurt close U.S. allies much more than the Chinese economy.

Medicaid has grown by 8.46 million or 32% in Red Districts Since 2013

Bills moving through Congress would leave consumers and taxpayers exposed to volatile crypto products

The new State of Working America Data Library shows the latest trends in productivity, wages, labor markets, unionization and CEO pay

Data sources vary, but the most relevant data source suggests that highway spending, adjusted for inflation, declined. If true, we should rethink federal infrastructure funding in times of distress.

The devil is in the deflator, and most deflators show it has risen since 2019

Responding to Jason Furman

The recent surge in immigration made the household survey especially hard to interpret, but if historical data were revised, we’d see that the labor force has grown smoothly and steadily

Corporate integration would make business taxes simpler, fairer, and more efficient

Republicans expect to be doing better personally even as Trump’s agenda risks reigniting inflation, everyone’s top concern

Weeks of it, packed into three days

Assumptions could put trillions of dollars of policy changes on the table, or not

Trade, civil service protections, Medicaid waivers, retirement security, the Paperwork Reduction Act, and more

More of the same, plus some experimentation

Local immigration rates don’t explain election results, but they could show where the next administration’s immigration policies will have the most impact

Across-the-board tariff hikes can inhibit long-term competitiveness because manufacturers rely on imported inputs and contribute disproportionately to overall exports and manufacturing job growth

The plunge in crude oil prices on Monday, following Israel's decision to avoid attacking Iranian energy facilities, should further reduce already low pump prices.