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brettjrob.bsky.social

@brettjrob.bsky.social
524 followers 147 following 152 posts

Meteorologist, code monkey, gratuitous wanderer. skyinmotion.com

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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
> Total 60-day precip 10x at Black Mesa vs. OKC > 24-h precip at Black Mesa exceeds 60-day total at OKC > Total 120-day precip greater at Black Mesa than OKC Summer or winter, Nino or Nina, I'll go out on a limb and say these aren't common in the historical record.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The prefrontal downslope torch strikes again. I think today's 110 F (so far) impresses me more than any day in 2011-12 -- it was mostly cloudy all morning, and "only" 95 F at lunchtime.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Not half bad for what originally looked like another sunny and 102 F afternoon. Stack of 5 frames over ~5 minutes. #okwx
CG lightning barrage over Norman, OK
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Gemini explaining to me quite eloquently and concisely how Gemini is ruining basic voice control on Android. The future blows. #enshittification
Gemini admitting that Google killing Android's Google Assistant app will make offline voice control for alarms and texts impossible for the first time since 2012.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
A well timed cold front often seems to be the key to breaking summertime MaxT records in C OK. Pretty sure we had one hanging around just north for OKC's 113 F in 2012. One notable difference: ~50 F dews in 2012 vs. 65-70 F every day this week. 😬
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Convectively better times on the Plains a year ago near Burwell, NE
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
A year ago near Nara Visa, NM. On by far the least impressive setup of a 4-5 day stretch, as is tradition.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
A window into how absurd the DDC day was: we fell way behind the storm as it got N of town to produce its 11th or 12th tor, so let it go. Then this appeared within minutes of clearing town to the S on the way home. Enchanted day and week.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Ten years ago this evening was the high point of a 4-day streak I'll never top. These are May 22, 23, 24, and 25, one per day. May 2016 was enchanted. It also used up all my good fortune for the subsequent 5 or so years!
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
I see lots of crosstalk on That Other Site w/ some assuming the final v1 in August will be dramatically overhauled from current version. Sounds like that's not the case, so criticism based on its observed/recent performance actually is warranted, which is good to know.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
I hear you, but it seems like a no-win road to start going down w/o any access to data or metadata (e.g., I genuinely don't know what a good threshold is for 3-km MPAS). Can only speak for myself, but if this is a serious concern, always feel free to reach out w/ suggested thresholds.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Although really, this just resurrects the idea of some kind of "normalized UH" product (climo already built in for end users) that very often crossed my mind a few years ago.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Fair point. But it seems like the only practical way to do this is to publish climatologies of every CAM as soon as it goes live. Otherwise, how do external users know their target?
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Do you happen to know the major differences (if any) between the currently running RRFS A vs. the deterministic run that will go live in Aug?
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
The little LP that couldn't. Randlett, OK this evening.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
This is the sane, best-case scenario... so probs not in today's world. I'm completely in favor of AI-enhanced engineering. Pure vibe coding of critical projects/apps (even w/ cursory human "review") scares me. The $$ incentives pushing many to speedrun implementing the latter scare me a LOT.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
What scares me most is the code maintenance aspect. I accept it's already terrifyingly capable of spitting out good results for many things ==> non-technical leaders are forcing rapid adoption. But what about tricky bugfixes or enhancements to a mostly-AI code base in 2-3 yrs? No one knows.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
I put the probability of blackmail and/or abject bribery quite high as the explanation for his bullshit. Not really sure what else makes sense.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
My 2c: I genuinely don't understand the problem with more complexity in mapping hazard probs to categorical. Did avg Joe know offhand that MDT required 15% tor vs. 45% hail before? Has the new table wrecked his trust in NOAA? There's room for reasonable concerns w/ new system, but this?
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Reposted by @brettjrob.bsky.social
NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
I voted for Trump because Kamala Harris campaigned with the neocon Liz Cheney. Here’s why I support the war in Iran.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
OK, you do have a point on the "max expected EF" wording, which I agree is not ideal. It's a nearly unavoidable result of trying to dumb down the complexity of PDFs (the true meaning of each category) for public consumption, which IMO is the biggest core drawback of this new outlook scheme.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Right? There's literally a PDF associated with each CIG category (including <CIG1). How is that not probabilistic? There are likely some downsides in the direct-to-public comms aspect of this scheme, but it's like no one online even acknowledges the clear upsides for other downstream users/systems.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
#okwx
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Can't stop thinking about how: 1. Trump won the 2016 primary pretending to disown neocons/Iraq 2. The right has come around on Bush's WMDs as a deliberate lie 3. Most are cheerleading what happened last night 4. Venez. is a negligible source of US drugs I mean, I just cannot with this timeline.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Net approval much better than same point in 1st term, better than Biden's final 18 months, and has rebounded(?) the past month. There's really no coming back from this level of societal stupid. www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approv...
realclearpolling.com
President Trump Job Approval | RealClearPolling
President Trump Job Approval | RealClearPolling
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
I can't add any meaningful insight into the "how" or "why", but AIFS ENS members semi-regularly output snowfall where they predict 60F+ temperatures. Seems likely there's still some low hanging fruit for improving these systems.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
So odd to talk this way 10 long years into dystopia. Is it just for easy in-tribe kudos or what? The top comments on fauxnewsdotcom are calling for his execution with thousands of upvotes. "I like pilots that weren't captured" was 2015. "Honor & duty" are about as culturally jarring now as disco.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Wall to wall pillars north during a substorm Tuesday evening in the Wichita Mountains, OK
Aurora borealis over the Wichita Mountains in Oklahoma
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Compulsively refreshing The Other Platform for solar storm info and thinking about how cooked we are if *nothing* the past year convinced a critical mass to abandon it... even in science niches. The future of the internet and digital communication looks impossibly bleak.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Reds and greens reflecting off lakes in the Wichita Mountains of SW OK - likely a sight you can go a whole solar cycle without. 03:55 UTC on 2025-11-12. #okwx
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Nailed it. I was on the storm from T-15 min to TG and have absolutely nothing worth posting. Traffic, haze, playing the storm scared to avoid softballs... it was a lot. Seems the key for views was staying E/NE and not an inch S of the tor's latitude.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Consolation prize for what's coming the next 48 hours. It's been a minute since the stars have aligned for central OK to pull this off without horizon interference.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
Another sunset view off the Grand Mesa in W CO from late September.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Caught sunset with the many layers and colors of the Colorado Grand Mesa near peak a couple weeks ago.
Sunset overlooking the Grand Mesa in Colorado with fall colors
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Random thought of the day: Centralized, convenient, authoritarian, manipulated, low quality (X, Meta, Reddit) always wins and marginalizes Decentralized, slightly inconvenient, democratic, organic, high quality (BlueSky, Mastodon, web forums) Seems to sum up the entire history of the internet.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
That's prob a silly anecdote and tangent to the broader issue of media literacy, critical thinking, and engagement with society overall. Obviously there's a wide distribution within each gen. But yeah, I also worry about how that distribution looks for gen z and later wrt all the areas I just listed
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
It's weird and uncomfortable trying to gauge how much is every generation's blind snobbery vs. how much is reality. Gotta admit, the stories about avg zoomers being tech illiterate bc they grew up on mega-dumbed-down iDevices radically undermine the expectations for the future I had 15 yrs ago.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
New thought after seeing latest POI photo: After that oval address, and with FBI in charge... is there any scenario where perp turns out to be someone apolitical or on the right, and that info is accurately relayed to the public? That I can't really imagine it shows again how far gone we are.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
That a POTUS would do this, let alone it being unremarkable in the scheme of things, is such a perfect illustration of how far gone we are. Hard to imagine coming back as a society from this fascist-leaning Idiocracy within a generation. 2/
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
POTUS gives address explicitly blaming "leftists" while manhunt is ongoing and no suspect ID'd. Then rattles off list of political violence that excludes the most recent major incident - MN in June - which saw 4 D *legislators*/family shot. You know, actual direct political violence/intimidation. 1/
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
The Gary, SD, tornado on 6/28/25 settled into a state of laminar perfection starting a little over halfway through its life cycle.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Guys, I think we might've needed the gatekeepers :(
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
I hope so tbh, and I live in the middle of OK.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
As a TL cleanse from today's photogenic Dakotas bonanza, here's Gary 6/28 (so 7 Dakotas bonanzas ago?) around its peak drillbit stage.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Wide shot of the 6/28 Gary monster shredding trees north of SD-22 with easily the loudest roar I've heard firsthand.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
The 6/28 Gary, SD, tornado reaches peak 🐍 just before crossing Hwy 22.
Tornado near Gary, SD
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
No, but I seriously doubt it's about public safely. More likely, law enforcement has direct access to the WEA system and choose to use it when one of their own is victimized. We've had many similar alerts in OK when a suspect is loose who injured a cop, but rarely or never for other loose suspects.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
The OK one just now was sent as "extreme," the highest level otherwise reserved for TOR (e.g., SVR is a lower tier). Exact same thing has happened 10x over the last decade here, including overnight. They've given ppl no choice but to disable all categories.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Absolutely sickening a week after Kerr Co. These cretins are directly responsible for normies turning off WEAs, and I can't blame them. WEA is functionally dead until the adults get a handle on it.
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brettjrob.bsky.social @brettjrob.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
The Gary, SD, storm on June 28 appeared smaller than most tornadic supercells I've seen on the Plains -- more in line with the summertime minisupercells Iowa and other parts of the upper Midwest are famous for.
Tornado under supercell near Gary, SD
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