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Bob Hayes

@bobhayes.bsky.social
2K followers 200 following 633 posts

Yank in London who trained myself to say "football." Analytics professional and hobbyist. Used to write things, many of which are still relevant, here: fromthebyline.substack.com

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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
So the call was a combination of: 1. Tough angle to properly see the player proximity 2. Dorgu leg more outstretched than many of us processed initially 3. Enzo Fernandez not sufficiently active to be called offside himself First two combine to be objective; third is subjective (and wrong IMO)
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Matt Browner Hamlin @mattbh.com · 06/09/2026
The whole “arsenal must buy a striker” narrative was built around pretending Kai wasn’t out injured for a long time but in fact available and contributing nothing at all. It’s the only way the urgency ever made sense.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The four title contenders, like we all expected
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Vibe is off on every Puma kit (African NTs excluded)
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
What galaxy brain logic led Maresca to playing Guehi in midfield? So odd. Even given this XI, this is like the 7th most likely distribution of those players.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Close one
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
The best midfielder on the pitch has pretty clearly been Sangaré
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Tariq Panja @tariqpanja.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Trump called Infantino on Wednesday to get Balogun's red card lifted. Nice to ride alon with Tyler Pager on what will be seen (and is) in many parts as one of the biggest scandals in World Cup history. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Asked FIFA to Review Balogun’s Suspension. He Is Now Eligible to Play.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
BBC going with the studio show for the entire halftime break is extremely refreshing. Actual discussion and analysis during a game! Clips of more than just goals!
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
It has somehow been memory-holed that Harry Kane was terrible at Euro 2024 and it was fair to wonder if, like, Ollie Watkins would be the starter in this World Cup
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Olise has been unreal over the last 15 minutes Mbappé is the best attacker in the world and I’m not sure he is the best attacker on France
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
The best attacker on the pitch, Nicolas Jackson
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
This is both an underwhelming performance from Spain and one where they win this, what, 8 times out of 10 Celebrate Cape Verde hanging in there, figure out some personnel stuff with Spain rolling out an “oops, all midfielders!” lineup, and I think that’s all we need from this one
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
48-team World Cup is a joke but seeing fans from places like Cape Verde going nuts over winning a corner is genuinely awesome
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Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
I think all complaints about the lack of an aesthetically pleasing champions league final should be directed to PSG’s attackers and filed under S for “skill issue.” Which given who PSG’s attackers are is a damn fine accomplishment out of Arsenal.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
UEFA VAR roulette, just what we like to see
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Elite football rapidly converging to late-stage EAFC
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Gyökeres on for Havertz has reduced Arsenal’s performance from “doing some things but not quite getting the shots off” to “not doing anything”
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
There’s the season. See you all in August.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Earlier in the season, I kept thinking “wow, Arsenal are not even missing Ødegaard that much!” That is definitely not true anymore. His absence has really been hurting. Just cannot get things going in possession.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Having Calafiori and Havertz in there really improves the flow of the attack (as I have been crying for for a while). Still need just a bit more to get something over the line.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
“The injured guy is the answer” is a dumb trope, but you can get far in a diagnosis of Arsenal’s attacking struggles (and why they’re boring) with 1. Ø is really important to things functioning 2. Kai/Calafiori out simultaneously adds to it 3. Eze/Gyök are not good, esp in controlled possession
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Tottenham are terrible but I don’t think the juice is there in the chasing pack. This weekend is a microcosm, where one of their competitors got smashed by Liverpool and the other is losing to a Brighton team in woeful form.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
It’s worth having a stare down Arsenal’s PL-only match log. In 2025, the team was rolling, and all bad results were some combination of finite, explainable, and inevitable. In 2026, they just haven’t really been at it. Even those big wins were flattering scorelines (and against far weaker teams).
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Days since Eze last executed an action of value for Arsenal Football Club: [googles date of Arsenal-Spurs] [calculates how many days it has been since then]
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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
there is some kind of mass psychosis going on in Arsenal fandom about Martin Odegaard he's an obviously highly productive football player who also works hard and also does beautiful things with the ball and people afaict disproportionately *within the fandom* have decided they think he sucks now
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
The truly amazing part? He is the only one pronouncing it (essentially) correctly youtu.be/ScNovNeQUU4?...
youtu.be
How to pronounce EVERY 2025/26 Premier League player and manager's name
YouTube video by Sky Sports Premier League
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Arsenal conceding 3 is going to be a red herring in the reaction to this; the problem is more in the inability to create when needing to, plus some poor sloppiness in minutes ~30-50.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
I was hoping this was a good opportunity for Eze to do the thing where he does something (for the first time since November) but nope, more of the same
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
The frequency at which I oscillate between “Arsenal are the best team in Europe and are on their way to a historically special season” and “Arsenal aren’t very good” is troubling
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Can’t wait for this lad to score the winner
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
That’s the fewest possible games for Manchester United in a season, confirmed No UEFA + elimination in their first game in both domestic cups
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Quietly, not only are all 3 relegation spots quite possibly already locked in, we might already have our final top 5. I’ll consult the models tomorrow but think the current bottom 3 may now have joint probability >50% to go down. I doubt we are there with the top 5 but don’t think it’s far off.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Rotated every player they reasonably could, put up 3.3 xG / 3.1 xGOT, conceded on the only shot on target. I’m fine with either result here and the performance was good. However this falls, there’s very little to be upset about.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Martinelli is absolutely cooking. Arsenal up to 1.5 xG, need to get one in the net.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
The NFL quietly gradually moving toward the large majority of teams having domes -- including in geographies that do not remotely need them -- is a bummer. Too much obsession by the suits with year-round use and getting big events. Too much obsession by the coaches with controllable conditions.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
The comparative npxG in Forest-Spurs and Palace-City are basically identical, and both games are 3-0 in opposite directions
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
5 total shots in over an hour in Sunderland
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Arsenal’s key issue today was Gyökeres, Martinelli, Eze all seem to need transition to be effective, and it was a bus-park game …but also the opponent is terrible and those guys shouldn’t need more favorable match conditions to beat them
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Gotta figure out how to get Eze doing anything useful that’s not scoring a hat trick against Tottenham
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Kinda feels like all the attackers on the bench are better fits for this match than all the ones playing. I bet we will see changes quickly.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Playing in a winning game state in Bruges with a clearly weaker opponent trying to play in transition is the archetypal Gyökeres use case… and he did nothing
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
The contrast in take-on ability between Madueke and Martinelli is comical. Martinelli has just lost it the last couple seasons, especially against a set defense.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Insane how much less cool (…and good) Isak is than last season
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
Prepare thyself for this to become a norm (even in freezing weather) with an ad break each time
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Red Bull should have pit Verstappen in that window there where he still would have come out ahead of Piastri. It’s absolutely worth slightly decreasing race win odds to up the variance in the WDC race and ultimately increase WDC odds.
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
On both sides of the back 4, Arsenal are playing guys who could plausibly play CB or FB. I’d love to see them try out some fluid rotational stuff in possession (though unfortunately they have basically no time on the training pitch to game that out).
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Bob Hayes @bobhayes.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
[Looking at Group A:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group B:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group C:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group D:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group E:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group F:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group G:] that’s a weak group
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