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Bobby Allyn

@bobbyallyn.bsky.social
24K followers 1.2K following 882 posts

Correspondent at @NPR covering tech. Now focusing on prediction markets. Signal: ballyn.77 Discord: bobby16663 Email: ballyn@npr.org

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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I went to a screening of Alex Gibney’s Elon doc and wrote a review. www.npr.org/2026/09/11/n...
npr.org
From DOGE to space lasers, Alex Gibney peels back the many layers of Elon Musk
In the Oscar-winning filmmaker's latest documentary, director Alex Gibney investigates the rise of Elon Musk and says what's behind Musk's success are distressing truths.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
"It sounds like Musk doesn't like the documentary, so he wants to do whatever he can to shut it down and intimidate distributors. It would be a much more impoverished democracy if we weren't allowed to make documentaries about public figures that were critical of them." www.npr.org/2026/09/10/g...
npr.org
Elon Musk threatens to sue over Gibney documentary's "space lasers" claim
The tech billionaire's attorney has put documentarian Alex Gibney and his production company on legal notice, claiming the Oscar-winning director defamed Musk in his nearly four-hour documentary.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I saw a screening of Alex Gibney’s Musk yesterday, and I enjoyed it (except for the creepy deepfake of Musk) Most of what’s covered has been well documented, but something that did stand out to me were texts Musk sent to Ashley St. Clair after the WSJ’s reporting on Musk’s recreational drug use.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
It's interesting that Dodd-Frank reforms after 2008 brought "swaps" under CFTC’s watch to close a loophole for risky black market investing. And now NJ says that closed loophole has become Kalshi's own loophole for avoiding state gambling laws.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
As the Lindsay Clancy jury deliberates anonymous bettors on Polymarket are wagering five-figure sums on what the verdict might be
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
NEW: The CFTC has launched a probe into prediction market "mention markets" as a category, where people bet millions on whether President Trump, sportscasters, executives on earning calls say a word or not. www.npr.org/2026/08/13/n...
npr.org
Feds probe 'mention markets' amid White House Kalshi controversy
Betting on what people say is becoming an increasingly popular category of prediction market sites. Now, federal officials have opened a probe examining whether those markets are a magnet for manipula...
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Reposted by Bobby Allyn
Mike Masnick @masnick.com · 11/08/2026
When Elon took over Twitter he told investors he'd triple ad revenue within 5 years. It's now been almost four years... and he's wiped out 2/3rds of the ad revenue (basically revealed in footnotes to SpaceX's earnings).
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Father of 12-year-old cancer patient on prediction markets introducing clinical trial betting: "What seemed to be missed in the CEO statements was the fact that there were going to be patients on the other side of these bets” www.npr.org/2026/08/07/n...
npr.org
Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'
Researchers warn betting on clinical trials could incentivize insider trading and interfere with drug development. But Kalshi and Polymarket say they provide valuable information to patients.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Both Kalshi & Polymarket odds of El-Sayed winning were more than 90% and both sites "called" the race for El-Sayed, who won by less than 1 percentage point It's reminding me of Spencer Pratt's momentum on the sites & how prediction market traders over-index internet hype, which real voters do not
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Trump’s media company today began selling early access to the president’s posts on Truth Social for up to $100k a month to financial institutions. I talked to former SEC lawyers, who see the service as a violation of insider trading laws. And a Wall Street executive, who told me:
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Example of a prediction market paying out for unreality: A live announcer mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt during the World Cup final, some outlets erroneously reported it, and a Kalshi attendance market resolved yes he attended, when he in fact was not there. Here’s why this happened:
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Kalshi's standoff with Wisconsin over election betting could be a preview of the next big prediction market fight. Election integrity experts fear situations like an election poll worker slowing the count or undercounting in order to cash in on a prediction market bet. www.npr.org/2026/07/27/n...
npr.org
Kalshi attacks a Wisconsin law banning election bets as 'voter suppression'
The spat between the leading prediction market company and a key battleground state could be a glimpse into the next major fight between states and the fast-growing industry.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Wisconsin Elections Commission warning voters about using Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of midterms: “Voters who place bets on elections and then try to vote in that election may be subject to voter qualification … and could also result in a referral to the District Attorney”
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Jacob Kramer-Duffield @jaykaydee.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
This was a really great discussion, give it a listen!
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Had fun hopping on @chrislhayes.bsky.social’s great podcast Why Is This Happening to chat prediction market mania, how we got here and where all this crazy-making madness is heading open.spotify.com/episode/3mKo...
open.spotify.com
The Betting Craze with Bobby Allyn
Why Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes Podcast · Episode
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
NEW from me: Kalshi says it’s not a sports gambling app. Since the World Cup started, it’s taken in $40 billion in sports bets, 10 times more than what DraftKings and FanDuel are expected to see. www.npr.org/2026/07/17/n...
npr.org
Kalshi says it's not a sportsbook even as World Cup bets surge
The betting site Kalshi emerged as a dominant sports betting platform during the World Cup. But the company avoids billions of dollars in taxes by insisting it is not a sports gambling operator.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
White House teleprompter operator as Kalshi Mention Market sharp is a designation as 2026 as they come www.npr.org/2026/07/16/n...
npr.org
Federal officials probe whether White House teleprompter profited off Trump's words
It's the first known instance of officials investigating suspected insider trading on a prediction market from inside the White House.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
NEW: Rep. Krishnamoorthi sent a letter to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan today requesting information about its paid influencer partnerships where election denialism was amplified. krishnamoorthi.house.gov/sites/evo-su...
krishnamoorthi.house.gov
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
nothing says just how destigmatized and normalized gambling has become like this stat: American adults are more likely to place a bet than read a book
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Meanwhile on Kalshi, traders made $879k betting Platner would drop out today and lost $907k betting he wouldn’t, according to internal market data. That’s just for today. The market overall had $11.5M traded on the question of when Platner would withdraw from the race.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Matt Levine: Prediction markets are “falsehood machines, in the sense that they give people incentives to make bets and then distort reality to make those bets pay off...Prediction markets can make it harder to know what is true.” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Purchasing bots to juice Spotify streams for a Kalshi payout on what song will be No. 1 “Spotify ultimately adjusted its charts to account for the discrepancy, culling over 500,000 artificial streams…The process was not immediate, though, and Kalshi had already resolved the market to award traders”
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Techmeme @techmeme.com · 30/06/2026
Sources: Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour about a possible takeover last year, before directing Meta employees to build a prediction market app (Bobby Allyn/NPR) Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
NEW: Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app www.npr.org/2026/06/30/n...
npr.org
Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app
Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi's CEO last year about a potential deal, but talks did not move forward. Now Meta is making its own prediction market app.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The Rick Rubin Polymarket ad ends with fine print: “Trading is not available in all jurisdictions. Check local regulations before trading.” (Checks local regulations) Ah yes, trading on Polymarket dot com has been banned in the US since 2022, got it
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Lauren Dobson-Hughes @ldobsonhughes.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Musk says not a single person has died due to him axing USAID. Sadly, part of my job involves tracking aid spending. So here’s a thread with just some of the people who lost their lives because of USAID cuts
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Meta is planning its very own prediction market app, as @mikeisaac.bsky.social scooped yesterday I got some internal Meta docs that give more detail on the app and how it plans to use ai from market creation to how markets resolve, etc., all while wagering "play money" www.npr.org/2026/06/24/n...
npr.org
Meta plans to release AI-powered prediction market app, documents show
The company is building an app separate from Facebook and Instagram where people can wager on the outcome of real-world events, using "play money."
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
I’ve seen internal Meta docs that have used the codename “Antwerp” to describe this product, in addition to Arena. It’s being described as a rebuild of its 2020 prediction app experiment.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Spencer Pratt was part of this very online feedback loop where he kept going viral on X, his odds were always bullish on prediction markets and traders were obsessed with him, so I got access to Kalshi API data and ran the numbers.
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Shannon Bond @byshannonbond.com · 09/06/2026
Polymarket & Kalshi are both now cracking down on paid partnership posts that use betting odds to allege election fraud, after a surge of unsubstantiated claims about the LA mayoral race circulated on X, @bobbyallyn.bsky.social and @jjoffeblock.bsky.social report www.npr.org/2026/06/07/n...
npr.org
Kalshi and Polymarket crack down on paid influencers claiming election fraud
Influencers are using prediction market odds to sow doubt in vote counting, in some cases in posts paid for by the companies themselves.
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Kate Knibbs @knibbs.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Great details on this scramble to crack down on paid partnership posts here
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
NEW with @jjoffeblock.bsky.social: An inside look at Kalshi and Polymarket's crack down on paid influencers claiming election fraud in California. www.npr.org/2026/06/07/n...
npr.org
Kalshi and Polymarket crack down on paid influencers claiming election fraud
Influencers are using prediction market odds to sow doubt in vote counting, in some cases in posts paid for by the companies themselves.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
George Santos called me after my story revealing federal investigations into his suspected market manipulation on Kalshi. And he said: "This story is going to get you a gun in your face." Then he lied about it. www.npr.org/2026/06/04/n...
npr.org
I wrote about George Santos. Then he made a violent threat and lied about it
NPR reported on new federal investigations examining the former Congressman's bets on the prediction market site Kalshi. Then he threatened the NPR reporter who broke the story.
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Ryan J. Reilly “paints a vivid and urgent portrait of… disarray” @ryanjreilly.com · 02/06/2026
Great @bobbyallyn.bsky.social get here
npr.org
DOJ is investigating former congressman George Santos for insider trading on Kalshi
The disgraced former congressman allegedly bet on whether he would appear at the State of the Union address, prompting federal investigations.
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Ryan Mac 🙃 @rmac.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
"i'm not saying yes, i'm not saying no" is just an iconic thing to tell a reporter. nice scoop @bobbyallyn.bsky.social www.npr.org/2026/06/02/n...
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Shannon Bond @byshannonbond.com · 02/06/2026
a you-can't-make-it-up @bobbyallyn.bsky.social scoop: George Santos told X followers he was going to the State of the Union. Then he didn't show - and placed bets on Kalshi that netted him tens of thousands of dollars. Now he's under federal investigation by DOJ and CFTC www.npr.org/2026/06/02/n...
npr.org
DOJ is investigating former congressman George Santos for insider trading on Kalshi
The disgraced former congressman allegedly bet on whether he would appear at the State of the Union address, prompting federal investigations.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
NEW: DOJ is investigating former congressman George Santos for insider trading on Kalshi www.npr.org/2026/06/02/n...
npr.org
DOJ is investigating former congressman George Santos for insider trading on Kalshi
The disgraced former congressman allegedly bet on whether he would appear at the State of the Union address, prompting federal investigations.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
The right-wing media ecosystem is boosting Spencer Pratt but can he win the LA mayor’s race? Steve Bannon told me yes, calling him “the most Trumpian candidate we’ve ever seen” "Tell him I would endorse him, but I don't want to hurt his chances of winning in LA” www.npr.org/2026/05/21/n...
npr.org
Spencer Pratt is 'winning the internet,' but can he become mayor of Los Angeles?
Pratt, a former reality TV star, is flooding social media with edgy humor, AI slop and combative rhetoric as a way of grabbing attention and winning the vote of the very online. It's a strategy some p...
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Brian Barrett @brbarrett.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Google's vision for the future of search is that you don't even really go to websites anymore, ai agents do it for you. (other than wired dot com which you will of course continue to visit obsessively, thank you, please) from @thiccreese.bsky.social
wired.com
Google Search Goes Agentic—and Doesn’t Need You Anymore
Vibe-coded results! Super widgets! Bots that never sleep! Google’s vision for the future of Search is hyper-personalized, automated, and extremely AI.
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Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Have you ever heard of a plagiarist who did it just once? I don’t think such a person exists www.npr.org/2026/05/17/n...
npr.org
New York Magazine reviewing work of writer facing plagiarism allegations
The high-profile writer, who has written a forthcoming book about New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, is being investigated by the magazine after being called out for copying the work of other writers.
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Kate Knibbs @knibbs.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
what's going on with Truth Predict, you may ask? well: www.wired.com/story/trump-...
wired.com
Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market
Truth Predict was supposed to be the Trump family’s biggest leap yet into prediction markets. Now it’s looking more like a tiptoe.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Call it the hustle economy, or digital mercenaries, thousands of young people are now spending hours a day fulfilling cash-for-clicks bounties to turn long-form videos into clips. www.npr.org/2026/05/12/n...
npr.org
The clipping economy: How short-form video 'clippers' are overrunning the internet
Short-form clips of long interviews and shows are taking over the internet. But behind the sea of social media clips are marketplaces offering freelance clippers money per view.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Call it the hustle economy, or digital mercenaries, thousands of young people are now spending hours a day fulfilling cash-for-clicks bounties to turn long-form videos into clips. www.npr.org/2026/05/12/n...
npr.org
The clipping economy: How short-form video 'clippers' are overrunning the internet
Short-form clips of long interviews and shows are taking over the internet. But behind the sea of social media clips are marketplaces offering freelance clippers money per view.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
The clipping economy: How short-form video 'clippers' are overrunning the internet www.npr.org/2026/05/12/n...
npr.org
The clipping economy: How short-form video 'clippers' are overrunning the internet
Short-form clips of long interviews and shows are taking over the internet. But behind the sea of social media clips are marketplaces offering freelance clippers money per view.
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Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
NPR's @bobbyallyn.bsky.social tracked down Polymarket's "headquarters" in Panama City. Why is Polymarket in Panama? "If you're someone trying to enforce a judgement, good luck getting a Panamanian court to do that," one lawyer told him. www.npr.org/2026/05/05/n...
npr.org
NPR went looking for Polymarket's Panama headquarters. It's elusive
The hugely popular prediction market was shut down by U.S. regulators in 2022 and re-opened in Panama, where it has benefited from tax and legal benefits for years.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
We looked into Polymarket's presence in Panama, obtained its government paperwork and visited its headquarters in Panama City. There was no sign of Polymarket. Nobody had heard of Polymarket there. www.npr.org/2026/05/05/n...
npr.org
NPR went looking for Polymarket's Panama headquarters. It's elusive
The hugely popular prediction market was shut down by U.S. regulators in 2022 and re-opened in Panama, where it has benefited from tax and legal benefits for years.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
"There is generally a high legal threshold to charge someone with threatening a person based on their language, and legal experts said it would be tough for the Justice Department to build a strong case with just the seashells." www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
James Comey indicted for second time by Justice Department
The case against the former FBI director centers on a photo he posted last year showing seashells arranged to write out “86 47,” which some saw as a call for violence against President Donald Trump.
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
NEW: CFTC's lawsuit against Wisconsin, now the 5th state to be sued by the Trump administration, which is trying to prevent states from regulating the prediction market industry. www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...
documentcloud.org
CFTC v Wisconsin
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Had fun chatting prediction market madness on LA’s beloved AirTalk this morning open.spotify.com/episode/2Pfz...
open.spotify.com
Explaining a looming jet fuel shortage and its consequences, Prediction market explainer, and more
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Bobby Allyn @bobbyallyn.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
I did an episode of Planet Money w the inimitable @marychilds.bsky.social on the crazy world of prediction market mania. We bet on a Trump speech, talk to Kalshi’s CEO, a former regulator & wonder abt perverse incentives & warping reality etc etc Give it a listen!! open.spotify.com/episode/7jE6...
open.spotify.com
Spotify – Web Player
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