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blcollier2.bsky.social

@blcollier2.bsky.social
8 followers 22 following 9 posts
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Takeaway: Frictional costs of managing tail risks help explain the rapid rise of homeowners insurance premiums in Florida. To improve affordability, policy could focus on reducing these costs, e.g., expanding reinsurance supply. Preliminary paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Pricing Climate Risk: Hurricane Models and Home Insurance Over the Last Two Decades
To what extent do rising homeowners insurance premiums reflect growing climate risk? We examine hurricane risk in Florida and how insurers price it. Insurers re
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
This cost is compounded by the market structure. National insurers ration coverage in high risk areas and are replaced by "Florida-only" domestic firms. These smaller firms rely heavily on reinsurance, spending $0.58 on it for every $1 in premiums they collect.
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
A primary driver is “tail risk.” Hurricanes create massive losses—the models show a 1-in-100 year event can cause losses 15x higher than an average year. To survive these spikes, insurers buy expensive coverage from global reinsurers.
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
This pass-through has grown more expensive. The "price" of $1 of risk rose from $3.53 (2008–2013) to $5.35 (2020–2024). The figure shows this change and that the growth is concentrated in hurricane premiums. Why is the load on top of the actual risk so large and growing?
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
We find that, on average, a $1 increase in modeled expected losses leads to a $4.55 increase in premiums. Since 2006, modeled hurricane risk has increased by 50%, but hurricane premiums have surged by over 200%. 📈
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
How does risk affect hurricane premiums? We hand collect insurers' premium rate filings and link them to the CAT model(s) used by the insurer. CAT models periodically refresh their risk estimates. We use these discrete updates to measure how insurers pass changes in modeled risk to consumers. 🛠️
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
We first describe hurricane risk and how it has evolved. This map uses data from a leading modeler in 2023 to show how expected losses vary across the state for the most common type of home. The median ZIP has an expected loss of $319 per $100K of a home’s replacement cost value.
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
The insurance industry uses proprietary catastrophe models—sophisticated systems using physics and meteorology to simulate thousands of potential "events"—to assess hurricane risk. This data is usually a trade secret, but we access 17 years of it through regulatory process in Florida.
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blcollier2.bsky.social @blcollier2.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Home insurance premiums are skyrocketing. How much is due to growing climate risk? 🌪️🏠 In our new paper, we use unique data from Florida—which has some of the highest premiums in the US—to open the "black box" of hurricane insurance pricing. 🧵 w\ @boomhower.bsky.social @tobiashuber.bsky.social
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Johannes Jaspersen @jaspersen.bsky.social · 20/11/2023
#EconSky Severe climate events (floods, wildfires) are raising insurance costs – on average, home insurance premiums increased 21% this year. Will policyholders keep insuring their homes? We (@blcollier2.bsky.social, @tobiashuber.bsky.social, Andreas Richter & I) explore this in a new working paper.
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