iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

When I first moved to my suburban district in 2022 the republican candidate campaigned hard, and probably had a 100:1 yard sign advantage. Same thing happened in 2024. This year their is no republican candidate, just a conservative running as an independent with a pretty small campaign presence.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

It will continue to get worse until Trump loses most of his control over the party.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

These are like Klobuchar +25 numbers, and all the polls have Flanagan running like 5 points behind Klobuchar so…

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Would be interested to know how many of the people jumping ship now are just not really tuned in to politics at all, and then once you happen to become aware of Trump 2 for any reason you immediately want out.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I just found out that she did covers of "The Book of Love" by Magnetic Fields, and "When a Good Man Cries" by CMAT earlier this year. Both her overall taste and politics seem way too cool for someone that famous.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

It's impressive how famous and popular Olivia Rodrigo is with young people, considering how much of what she does seems to be straight up pandering to people who are the bluesky age.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I am having a hard time believing all the polls that are saying that Amy Klobuchar will have her worst ever statewide performance by more than 5 points in 2026.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

A 60% winning coalition in a modern presidential election is almost unthinkable, but I do think Vance getting the nomination in 2028 might be best chance that it will happen for *someone*.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Terence Tao made the point that one of the benefits of a human solving an open math problem is that in finding the solution they often come up with new problems to be solved. LLMs can't seem to do this yet, and we'll see if they ever get good at this.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

It‘s so bad you can’t tell what their defensive principles were, and if it was Stewie or JJ that was 10 feet out of position.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Just have to accept it that the polls are real and Texas is to the left of Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Also, after Operation Metro Surge, I assumed Flanagan would win the primary over Craig in a walk. Then the polling was all over the place, but in the end Flanagan outperformed her best polls by like 5 points, even while left candidates like AES and Huang underperformed their polling average.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The thing about MN is that to believe the polling you have to believe that Amy Klobuchar will have her worst election ever as a Democrat in 2026 by more than 5 points. This to me is more unbelievable than Flanagan being close or Ellison being behind.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I get being surprised by Zach Bryan, but if your driving 4 hours to see The Strokes you should consider doing any research on the band beforehand.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I also think the Liberty might've decided to stop fooling around now that it is playoff time.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Semi-related tangent: I think that a big problem that shows up in a lot of areas (immigration being the big one) is that people think markets are about competition and declaring the winner of a zero sum game. When in reality they are just as much about working together as efficiently as possible.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Gophers are a good time, and it sounds like the fact that my 3 year olds main complaint was that the band was too loud would be a plus in your book

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It does genuinely make me angry if I think for too long about the fact that the trans athletes in sports debate gets lumped in with the people with intersex characteristics in sports.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

If you want to mainline hopium, just assume Cohn is right about general trends, and this Collins poll is like the NYT poll that showed Harris comfortably ahead in PA 2 years ago. No real reason to believe those things are true, but they could be.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

In defense of Nate Cohn, he did specifically predict what would happen with low propensity and latino voters in 2024, so I am choosing to believe him this time as well.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

This might be one where River is an "expert level" engaged parent.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

There was that MN statewide poll that was obviously overstating the republican vote like a week ago, and now this in the opposite direction. At some point when something is obviously wrong, maybe you just throw it in the trash instead of the average.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The rankings of MN dem leads relative to other states in various polling averages is the most obviously incorrect thing I have seen this year.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The linguistic similarity has occurred to me before, and I will occasionally jokingly think of an evangelical ska family called "The Righteous Righteous Gemstones" or "The Mighty Righteous Gemstones"

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Given Amy Klobuchar's electoral performance history, and what we know about the generic ballot in 2026, it is simply not possible that her numbers in this poll are anywhere close to accurate.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Most of the poll numbers I see that are bad for Dems snap me back to reality, and make me realize nothing is guaranteed. This poll (and specifically the Klobuchar number) does not do that because it is simply not believable that anything close to this could happen in November.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Still trying to figure out what the deal with this place is. I suspect it's so small it is functionally not a real standalone city. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunfish...

en.wikipedia.org

Sunfish Lake, Minnesota - Wikipedia

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

He clarified in a reply that he is talking about Ed Zitron. Which I think means Silver’s post is actually a good bit if it is 100% meant as a troll of bluesky and in no way serious.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

It's just a bunch of number that are probably wrong, don't let them make you more optimistic!

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Having as many of the most unpleasant coalition members argue against each other on the smallest social media site possible does seem better than most other places it could happen.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Yes, there is likely some MNAR issues that causes bias, and goes the same way in most polls. There Just isn’t much to do with that that is more grounded in the data than basically just saying “we think there might be up to 5-10% bias in these polls that all goes the same way”

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

And really not a big deal Coco, but if you win then the match on Saturday will be even more important for my mental wellbeing

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

One could say the whole point of the old IOC and NCAA standards, which were pretty good before the anti trans backlash, was to let trans women play unless it caused issues with safety or fairness.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Only Clarence Thomas truly understands the penumbras of the constitution.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Also, I sort of assume once chess is "solved" it would just be a draw every game, which makes me wonder about Elon's original point. I wonder if the amount of openings where you can still salvage a draw is pretty large.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Seems like Elon set the lower bound for complexity, and chess dot com set the upper bound. Has anyone done work to make a tighter bound on the true order of complexity?

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Adam Jentlenson sucks, but some of the things I have seen him say on the other site makes me think he is going to absolutely unload on Fetterman once he switches parties.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Guess I’ll have to buy more Olivia miles shirts

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Went back to your thread, and it has the JD Vance quote that makes me most irrationally angry. When he talks about Japanese vs American strawberries he acts as though they are the same price, but Japanese strawberries are *way* more expensive, especially relative to other food.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

I think the fact that lots of the richest tech ceos are Obama/Trump supporters also makes some people want to think there is some hidden wisdom of these voters, because the alternative is that lots of the richest most influential people in the world are dumb.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I firmly believe this administration has it in them to be less popular in 2028 than Bush was in 2008 even with increased polarization and (hopefully) without a huge recession.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Do you have a take on whether the EV9 or Ioniq9 are worth it, or if it's better to hold out for a better 3 row SUV or minivan to hit the market?

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Why stop at countries, what does this theory say about the innate differences of different states within the US?

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

The genetics of people living in China must have changed a lot between 1960 and now based on this theory.

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blangworthy.bsky.social @blangworthy.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Are there CBA rules on how frequently a player can be out for rest?

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