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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

We’re very thankful to all those who helped us get this to the publication stage!

Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

We also recently wrote a short policy brief for @gldinstitute.bsky.social based on this project: gld.gu.se/en/gld-publi....

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

🚨 New paper in @isq-jrnl.bsky.social with Prabin Khadka. We study the reintegration of women and children during conflict. Our survey experiment in Somalia shows the public are more accepting of women and children, particularly those wedded to al-Shabaab fighters. academic.oup.com/isq/article/...

academic.oup.com

The Reintegration of Women and Children Defecting from Armed Groups during Conflict: Evidence from Somalia

Abstract. The public acceptance of former enemy collaborators by local communities is crucial for preventing violent extremism. Few studies experimentally

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Congratulations, Nihad! So exciting to see this out!

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

Congrats! Pleased to see this out!

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Reposted by Blair Welsh

Nihad Aboud نهاد عبود @nihadaboud.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

If at #APSA2025 don’t to miss the Climate and Conflict panel, Friday at 8 am. My amazing co-authors, Natalie Ayers, Laura Saavedra-Lux and Blair Welsh will be presenting our paper “After Rebel Rule”, examining how rebel occupation affects agricultural recovery after conflict. It is a great panel!

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

We’re also hiring in Comparative and Canadian: www.uwo.ca/facultyrelat...

uwo.ca

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

🚨 My department @westernu.ca is hiring up to two TT Assistant Professors in International Politics (IR/CP). I’m not on the search committee, but I’ll be at APSA next week — happy to chat & answer questions! Application info: www.uwo.ca/facultyrelat... #polisky #conflictsky #intsec #IR

uwo.ca

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Reposted by Blair Welsh

Amanda Friesen @amandafriesen.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

Come work with me/us!!! Happy to answer questions about our dept, Western, and Canadian academia. I absolutely love it here and highly recommend. Several of us will be at APSA and happy to meet. 🇨🇦

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Reposted by Blair Welsh

Amanda Friesen @amandafriesen.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

We are very excited to have the brilliant @blairwelsh.bsky.social joining the Dept of Political Science @westernu.ca! Look for big things and important work in empirical IR; great for us and great for Canada! politicalscience.uwo.ca/about_us/new...

politicalscience.uwo.ca

News

Current news and announcements from the Department of Political Science at Western University.

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Reposted by Blair Welsh

VIP Workshop @vipworkshop.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

The second meeting of the spring 2025 #VIPWorkshop series happens next week (3/27 @ 11am EST)! Leonor Oliveira Toscano (@leoatoscano.bsky.social) will present a paper on peace infrastructure in Kenya (w/discussant Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social). (1/3)

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Super thankful to all who commented on previous drafts, fantastic RAs, as well as the reviewers, Editors, and team at CMPS.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Overall, the research draws further attention to victims of political violence and (in a rather timely manner) the dynamics of concessions over hostages in civil war.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

To probe the mechanism on attention, I use causal mediation analysis. I find the relationship is largely mediated by media and online attention surrounding attacks/victims. Other mechanisms, such as family pressure on government and media frames, are (in as much as it’s possible) ruled out.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

I also consider some extensions, such as individual effects, temporal dynamics, demands for concessions, and whether strategy/reputation are important. For example, concessions are more likely for NGO staff and foreigners of allied nationalities.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

In a victim-level analysis, I find the government are more likely to concede for the release of high-profile victims than non high-profile victims. There are small differences across the two main groups (ASG and NPA).

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

🔍 Descriptively, in the Philippines, 11% of the victims are foreign, 12% are women, and 5% are children. This suggests a majority of hostages are adult (18+) and male.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

I test the theory with granular data on the Philippines. The data track hostage-taking activities by six insurgent groups from 1975 to 2018, detailing important victim-level characteristics and information on which attacks result in concessions.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Given substantial costs associated with granting concessions, I argue that governments only concede for the release of hostages where the victim is likely to attract attention, compelling states to intervene. This occurs when the hostage is a high-profile victim.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

There remains increasing evidence of governments conceding to rebel organizations, particularly for the release of hostages. But it’s unclear when and why this occurs.

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Blair Welsh @blairwelsh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

When do governments grant concessions for the release of hostages? Excited to share my article on hostage concessions in civil war is now published in Conflict Management and Peace Science. 🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Small thread on findings: #Polisky #PoliSciSky #PoliticalScience

journals.sagepub.com

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