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BLACKSITE

@blacksiteintel.bsky.social
5 followers 1 following 343 posts

The analyst-education desk. Open-source conflict analysis and the tradecraft behind it, taught in the open. Authority from method, not biography. Nightly brief: ww3watchtower.substack.com Video: youtube.com/@WW3Watchtower

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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 11h
PENTAGON EVACUATES STRATEGIC BOMBERS FROM RAF FAIRFORD The Pentagon evacuated all strategic bombers from RAF Fairford and rushed aircraft airborne following accusations that Iran plotted to strike the installation.
Pentagon evacuates strategic bombers from RAF FairfordPentagon evacuates strategic bombers from RAF FairfordPentagon evacuates strategic bombers from RAF FairfordPentagon evacuates strategic bombers from RAF Fairford
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 15h
PILOT ACCUSED OF HIJACKING PASSENGER FLIGHT Interrogation findings indicate a Flydubai pilot allegedly tried to hijack a passenger flight. The reporting states the pilot planned to crash the aircraft into Ben Gurion Airport.
Pilot accused of hijacking passenger flightPilot accused of hijacking passenger flightPilot accused of hijacking passenger flightPilot accused of hijacking passenger flight
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 19h
PUTIN ADVISER WARNS OF PRE-EMPTIVE NUCLEAR STRIKE A political adviser in Moscow stated that Russia could launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike if NATO forces deploy to Ukraine. The reported warning frames alliance deployment as a direct trigger for strategic escalation.
Putin adviser warns of pre-emptive nuclear strikePutin adviser warns of pre-emptive nuclear strikePutin adviser warns of pre-emptive nuclear strikePutin adviser warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 23h
RUSSIAN FORCES STRIKE KYIV NORTH BRIDGE ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS Russian forces struck the North Bridge in Kyiv on Sunday for the second consecutive day, blasting a crater into the road deck.
Russian Forces Strike Kyiv North Bridge on Consecutive DaysRussian Forces Strike Kyiv North Bridge on Consecutive DaysRussian Forces Strike Kyiv North Bridge on Consecutive DaysRussian Forces Strike Kyiv North Bridge on Consecutive Days
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
HOUTHI FORCES TARGET RIYADH WITH MISSILES AND DRONES A regional faction launched ballistic missiles and drones at Aramco installations in Riyadh. The faction described the strike as a response to a bombing of Sana'a hours earlier.
Houthi forces target Riyadh with missiles and dronesHouthi forces target Riyadh with missiles and dronesHouthi forces target Riyadh with missiles and dronesHouthi forces target Riyadh with missiles and drones
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
FEDERAL AND ALLIED FORCES CAPTURE MEKELLE Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Forces have captured Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, after TPLF rebel forces withdrew. This development carries high significance for the regional conflict.
Federal and allied forces capture MekelleFederal and allied forces capture MekelleFederal and allied forces capture MekelleFederal and allied forces capture Mekelle
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
FOREIGN ENVOY BACKS ENRICHMENT PROGRAM IN TEHRAN A foreign state envoy stated that the nuclear program in Iran is an inalienable right. This public position offers diplomatic backing as external governments pursue enhanced oversight of uranium enrichment.
Foreign Envoy Backs Enrichment Program In TehranForeign Envoy Backs Enrichment Program In TehranForeign Envoy Backs Enrichment Program In TehranForeign Envoy Backs Enrichment Program In Tehran
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
DRONES DAMAGE TRANSFORMERS NEAR ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT Drones damaged transformers near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. Following the strikes, the IAEA called for a ceasefire.
Drones Damage Transformers Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear PlantDrones Damage Transformers Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear PlantDrones Damage Transformers Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear PlantDrones Damage Transformers Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
YEMEN FORCES FIRE MISSILES AND DRONES AT REGIONAL TARGETS Yemen’s forces fired five ballistic missiles and seven suicide drones targeting Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Aden’s Al-Shaab base, hitting the Al-Dara Al-Watan command hub.
Yemen Forces Fire Missiles and Drones at Regional TargetsYemen Forces Fire Missiles and Drones at Regional TargetsYemen Forces Fire Missiles and Drones at Regional TargetsYemen Forces Fire Missiles and Drones at Regional Targets
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
JAPANESE LAWMAKERS PROPOSE LETHAL ARMS EXPORT POLICY SHIFT Japanese lawmakers have proposed transferring Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, ending a rigid post-WWII ban on lethal arms exports. We judge this policy shift carries high significance for Tokyo and international security alignment.
Japanese Lawmakers Propose Lethal Arms Export Policy ShiftJapanese Lawmakers Propose Lethal Arms Export Policy ShiftJapanese Lawmakers Propose Lethal Arms Export Policy ShiftJapanese Lawmakers Propose Lethal Arms Export Policy Shift
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
ISRAELI FINANCE MINISTER STATES SETTLEMENT EXPANSION INTENT Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that Zionism must expand West Bank settlements. The stated objective of this expansion is to kill the idea of a Palestinian state.
Israeli Finance Minister States Settlement Expansion IntentIsraeli Finance Minister States Settlement Expansion IntentIsraeli Finance Minister States Settlement Expansion IntentIsraeli Finance Minister States Settlement Expansion Intent
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
INTERCEPTED PLAN REVEALS EXTENSIVE MISSILE CAMPAIGN AGAINST GRIDS A regional monitor reports an intercepted state plan for a one thousand missile campaign against grids in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa.
Intercepted plan reveals extensive missile campaign against gridsIntercepted plan reveals extensive missile campaign against gridsIntercepted plan reveals extensive missile campaign against gridsIntercepted plan reveals extensive missile campaign against grids
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NATO OFFICIAL DECLARES UNITED STATES STRIKES ESSENTIAL An alliance official declared United States nuclear strikes on Iran an essential military necessity from Brussels, Belgium. The stance disregards non-proliferation norms and risks driving rapid atomic escalation across the Middle East.
NATO Official Declares United States Strikes EssentialNATO Official Declares United States Strikes EssentialNATO Official Declares United States Strikes EssentialNATO Official Declares United States Strikes Essential
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
UNITED STATES CONDUCTS NON-NUCLEAR SUBTERRANEAN TEST The United States conducted a non-nuclear subterranean test using chemical explosives. The stated objective involves improving the detection of low-yield nuclear blasts.
United States conducts non-nuclear subterranean testUnited States conducts non-nuclear subterranean testUnited States conducts non-nuclear subterranean testUnited States conducts non-nuclear subterranean test
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
PUTIN HIGHLIGHTS FRENCH AND BRITISH NUCLEAR ARSENALS The Russian President stated that France and the UK possess nuclear arsenals while claiming Russian weapons remain unparalleled. Observers are tracking how this rhetoric shapes Moscow's strategic posture regarding NATO.
Putin highlights French and British nuclear arsenalsPutin highlights French and British nuclear arsenalsPutin highlights French and British nuclear arsenalsPutin highlights French and British nuclear arsenals
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE HITS KYIV NUCLEAR RESEARCH INSTITUTE A Russian drone strike hit a nuclear research institute in Kyiv, Ukraine, sparking a fire near the VVR-M research reactor. Authorities stated that safety-critical systems sustained no damage.
Russian Drone Strike Hits Kyiv Nuclear Research InstituteRussian Drone Strike Hits Kyiv Nuclear Research InstituteRussian Drone Strike Hits Kyiv Nuclear Research InstituteRussian Drone Strike Hits Kyiv Nuclear Research Institute
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
POLITICAL FIGURE ANNOUNCES LARGE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN A political figure announced a $22.3 billion plan featuring a 6.5 GW gas plant in Encinal, Texas, eight nuclear reactors, and the Alaska LNG project. The location is specified as Encinal, Texas, USA.
Political figure announces large energy infrastructure planPolitical figure announces large energy infrastructure planPolitical figure announces large energy infrastructure planPolitical figure announces large energy infrastructure plan
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
ETHIOPIA PULLS TROOPS FROM SOMALIA TO COUNTER COALITION The Ethiopian government will pull 3,000 troops from Somalia. This shift counters the Alliance for Survival coalition that seized Erebti and nears Afdera. The desk assesses that this creates a realistic possibility of security voids.
Ethiopia pulls troops from Somalia to counter coalitionEthiopia pulls troops from Somalia to counter coalitionEthiopia pulls troops from Somalia to counter coalitionEthiopia pulls troops from Somalia to counter coalition
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
EUROPEAN LEADERS URGE DEFENSE INDEPENDENCE FROM WASHINGTON A European official stated that the continent must end its reliance on the United States to counter Russia and build independent defense capabilities.
European Leaders Urge Defense Independence From WashingtonEuropean Leaders Urge Defense Independence From WashingtonEuropean Leaders Urge Defense Independence From WashingtonEuropean Leaders Urge Defense Independence From Washington
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
MOSCOW WARNS EUROPEAN CAPITALS OVER KALININGRAD BLOCKADE A state official warned European capitals that Moscow has codified a nuclear response to any NATO attempt to blockade Kaliningrad, following a clarification at the Russian embassy in Ireland.
Moscow Warns European Capitals Over Kaliningrad BlockadeMoscow Warns European Capitals Over Kaliningrad BlockadeMoscow Warns European Capitals Over Kaliningrad BlockadeMoscow Warns European Capitals Over Kaliningrad Blockade
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
EVERY FILE CARRIES MORE THAN ITS CONTENTS ExifTool reads and writes metadata across essentially every format in circulation. It is the reference implementation, and it has been maintained by one person for over two decades.
Every file carries more than its contentsEvery file carries more than its contentsEvery file carries more than its contentsEvery file carries more than its contents
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
THE VERIFICATION TOOLKIT BUILT FOR PEOPLE CHECKING VIDEO Keyframe extraction, reverse image search across several engines at once, metadata reading and magnification, in one plugin. Built by a public research programme, not a vendor.
The verification toolkit built for people checking videoThe verification toolkit built for people checking videoThe verification toolkit built for people checking videoThe verification toolkit built for people checking video
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
ONE USERNAME, CHECKED AGAINST HUNDREDS OF SITES IN ONE COMMAND People reuse handles. Sherlock takes one and checks it against several hundred platforms, returning where that name exists.
One username, checked against hundreds of sites in one commandOne username, checked against hundreds of sites in one commandOne username, checked against hundreds of sites in one commandOne username, checked against hundreds of sites in one command
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
THEY DO NOT THINK LIKE YOU Assuming an adversary reasons the way you do is called mirror-imaging, and it is the most durable failure in the profession.
They do not think like youThey do not think like youThey do not think like youThey do not think like you
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
MISSILES AND DRONES STRIKE TARGETS ACROSS KYIV Approximately six Iskander-M ballistic missiles struck targets across Kyiv tonight, with local reports also suggesting Geran-5 drone involvement. Here is how analysts separate demonstrated physical capabilities from unverified field reports.
Missiles and Drones Strike Targets Across KyivMissiles and Drones Strike Targets Across KyivMissiles and Drones Strike Targets Across KyivMissiles and Drones Strike Targets Across Kyiv
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A SHADOW WILL TELL YOU WHAT TIME A PHOTO WAS TAKEN Sun position is deterministic. If you know where a photo was taken, the shadow gives you when, and if you know when, the shadow helps give you where.
A shadow will tell you what time a photo was takenA shadow will tell you what time a photo was takenA shadow will tell you what time a photo was takenA shadow will tell you what time a photo was taken
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
YEMEN PARLIAMENT AUTHORIZES GENERAL MOBILIZATION AGAINST HOUTHIS The parliament in Yemen has approved a declaration of general mobilization to confront Houthi escalation. This move expands the scope of mobilization across the country.
Yemen Parliament Authorizes General Mobilization Against HouthisYemen Parliament Authorizes General Mobilization Against HouthisYemen Parliament Authorizes General Mobilization Against HouthisYemen Parliament Authorizes General Mobilization Against Houthis
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
TARGETED STRIKE HITS BUILDING IN CENTRAL KYIV A targeted strike hit the National Academy of Sciences building in central Kyiv, causing a fire and reported casualties while footage showed people fleeing. Here is how analysts separate the physical act from the underlying intent.
Targeted strike hits building in central KyivTargeted strike hits building in central KyivTargeted strike hits building in central KyivTargeted strike hits building in central Kyiv
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Russia hit Ukraine's grid, data centers and steel plants Sept 23-25: 295 drones overnight, 267 intercepted, 6 oblasts dark, 10 killed. Ukraine struck back at refineries deep inside Russia. Confirmed vs claimed vs assessed breakdown, sources and a 90-day forecast in the carousel.
BLACKSITE slideBLACKSITE slideBLACKSITE slideBLACKSITE slide
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
STREET-LEVEL IMAGERY WHERE THE BIG PROVIDERS NEVER DROVE Google's coverage stops at a lot of borders. Crowd-sourced street imagery frequently does not, which makes it the geolocation resource of last resort.
Street-level imagery where the big providers never droveStreet-level imagery where the big providers never droveStreet-level imagery where the big providers never droveStreet-level imagery where the big providers never drove
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
ASSUME THE PICTURE WAS ARRANGED FOR YOU Denial hides what is real. Deception shows you what is not. Both assume you are watching, and both are cheap compared to the capability they protect.
Assume the picture was arranged for youAssume the picture was arranged for youAssume the picture was arranged for youAssume the picture was arranged for you
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
YOUR ASSESSMENT IS ONLY AS STRONG AS THE WORD YOU END IT WITH Intelligence communities fix a small set of probability words to fixed number bands, and do not let analysts improvise. Likely is not a mood. It is a range.
Your assessment is only as strong as the word you end it withYour assessment is only as strong as the word you end it withYour assessment is only as strong as the word you end it withYour assessment is only as strong as the word you end it with
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
ONE SOURCE IS NOT CORROBORATION, EVEN WHEN IT IS QUOTED TWICE Circular reporting is when a single origin returns to you through several channels and reads like independent confirmation.
One source is not corroboration, even when it is quoted twiceOne source is not corroboration, even when it is quoted twiceOne source is not corroboration, even when it is quoted twiceOne source is not corroboration, even when it is quoted twice
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
SHIPS BROADCAST THEIR OWN POSITION, UNTIL THEY CHOOSE NOT TO AIS is a collision-avoidance system, not a surveillance one. The interesting analytic moment is when a vessel stops transmitting.
Ships broadcast their own position, until they choose not toShips broadcast their own position, until they choose not toShips broadcast their own position, until they choose not toShips broadcast their own position, until they choose not to
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
MILITARY ANALYSTS ALWAYS BRIEF TWO ENEMY PLANS Not a guess and a hedge. Two formal products: most likely course of action and most dangerous course of action. A brief carrying only one is incomplete.
Military analysts always brief two enemy plansMilitary analysts always brief two enemy plansMilitary analysts always brief two enemy plansMilitary analysts always brief two enemy plans
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
ESTONIA OPENS TALKS WITH FRANCE ON EUROPEAN NUCLEAR DETERRENCE Estonia has begun talks with France about joining a French initiative to strengthen European nuclear deterrence, according to a state broadcaster. The Estonian prime minister made the statement on 15 September.
Estonia opens talks with France on European nuclear deterrenceEstonia opens talks with France on European nuclear deterrenceEstonia opens talks with France on European nuclear deterrenceEstonia opens talks with France on European nuclear deterrence
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
THE NUMBER THAT MAKES MOST ALARMING CLAIMS BORING Base rate neglect is judging how likely something is from how vivid it is, instead of how often it actually happens.
The number that makes most alarming claims boringThe number that makes most alarming claims boringThe number that makes most alarming claims boringThe number that makes most alarming claims boring
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
HOUTHIS CLAIM STRIKE ON KHAMIS MUSHAIT AIRBASE The Houthis report firing dozens of missiles and drones at the Khamis Mushait airbase in Saudi Arabia and hitting hangars, runways, and depots. The claim comes from the attacking party and has not been independently corroborated in the source item.
Houthis claim strike on Khamis Mushait airbaseHouthis claim strike on Khamis Mushait airbaseHouthis claim strike on Khamis Mushait airbaseHouthis claim strike on Khamis Mushait airbase
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
ISRAEL MOBILIZES RESERVE DIVISION AS DAMASCUS STRIKE KILLS SEVEN Israel has mobilized its first reserve division for southwestern Lebanon, and a strike in Damascus killed seven people and wounded eleven. Hezbollah officials have pledged to continue fighting as operations expand into the sector.
Israel mobilizes reserve division as Damascus strike kills sevenIsrael mobilizes reserve division as Damascus strike kills sevenIsrael mobilizes reserve division as Damascus strike kills sevenIsrael mobilizes reserve division as Damascus strike kills seven
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
THE PAGE WAS DELETED. THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT IS GONE Deletion is a signal. What was removed, and when, is often more informative than what remains published.
The page was deleted. That does not mean it is goneThe page was deleted. That does not mean it is goneThe page was deleted. That does not mean it is goneThe page was deleted. That does not mean it is gone
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSTRUCTION SURGE AT PICKAXE MOUNTAIN SITE Satellite imagery reveals a surge in construction at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain site. The activity is likely intended for uranium enrichment and centrifuge assembly.
Satellite imagery shows construction surge at Pickaxe Mountain siteSatellite imagery shows construction surge at Pickaxe Mountain siteSatellite imagery shows construction surge at Pickaxe Mountain siteSatellite imagery shows construction surge at Pickaxe Mountain site
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
THE CHECK THAT FINDS THE THING YOU NEVER THOUGHT TO QUESTION A Key Assumptions Check lists what your judgement requires to be true but has not tested. Failed estimates usually fail here, not in the evidence.
The check that finds the thing you never thought to questionThe check that finds the thing you never thought to questionThe check that finds the thing you never thought to questionThe check that finds the thing you never thought to question
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
UN WATCHDOG CONFIRMS SYRIAN PLANT DESIGNED FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS The UN nuclear watchdog has confirmed that a plant uncovered in Syria was designed to manufacture nuclear weapons, per the agency's findings.
UN watchdog confirms Syrian plant designed for nuclear weaponsUN watchdog confirms Syrian plant designed for nuclear weaponsUN watchdog confirms Syrian plant designed for nuclear weaponsUN watchdog confirms Syrian plant designed for nuclear weapons
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
QUESTIONS COME BEFORE SEARCHING, ALWAYS Amateurs collect and then look for a question. The cycle runs the other way: requirement, then indicator, then collection.
Questions come before searching, alwaysQuestions come before searching, alwaysQuestions come before searching, alwaysQuestions come before searching, always
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
AIRCRAFT TRACKING THAT DOES NOT HONOUR BLOCKING REQUESTS Most flight trackers filter aircraft on request. This one is built on unfiltered community receiver data, which is why analysts use it.
Aircraft tracking that does not honour blocking requestsAircraft tracking that does not honour blocking requestsAircraft tracking that does not honour blocking requestsAircraft tracking that does not honour blocking requests
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
THE ONE QUESTION THAT SEPARATES A REPORT FROM AN ASSESSMENT So what. If a product does not answer it, it is a description of events wearing the label of intelligence.
The one question that separates a report from an assessmentThe one question that separates a report from an assessmentThe one question that separates a report from an assessmentThe one question that separates a report from an assessment
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
DOZENS REPORTED KILLED IN NIGERIA TERRORIST ATTACK A Nigerian news outlet reports that dozens of people were killed in a terrorist attack in Nigeria. The report says the attack hits a country already facing significant security challenges, including insurgencies and banditry.
Dozens reported killed in Nigeria terrorist attackDozens reported killed in Nigeria terrorist attackDozens reported killed in Nigeria terrorist attackDozens reported killed in Nigeria terrorist attack
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
WRITE THE ANSWER FIRST OR NOBODY READS IT BLUF, bottom line up front. The judgement goes in the first sentence, and the reasoning follows it. Reverse that order and the reader stops before the point.
Write the answer first or nobody reads itWrite the answer first or nobody reads itWrite the answer first or nobody reads itWrite the answer first or nobody reads it
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
IRANIAN STRIKES INFLICT BILLIONS IN DAMAGE ON U.S. INTELLIGENCE SITES Iranian missile and drone strikes have inflicted billions of dollars in damage on U.S. intelligence sites and surveillance equipment across the Middle East. The attacks expose vulnerabilities in U.S.
Iranian strikes inflict billions in damage on U.S. intelligence sitesIranian strikes inflict billions in damage on U.S. intelligence sitesIranian strikes inflict billions in damage on U.S. intelligence sitesIranian strikes inflict billions in damage on U.S. intelligence sites
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BLACKSITE @blacksiteintel.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
THE TECHNIQUE BUILT TO STOP YOU FALLING IN LOVE WITH YOUR FIRST ANSWER Analysis of Competing Hypotheses works backwards from how people naturally reason. You do not look for evidence that fits. You look for evidence that kills.
The technique built to stop you falling in love with your first answerThe technique built to stop you falling in love with your first answerThe technique built to stop you falling in love with your first answerThe technique built to stop you falling in love with your first answer
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