iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Requiring third party safety checks for AI developer has been debated for years but is now center stage after 2026 laws in Illinois and California along with the labs themselves recently asking for such measures. I walk through the history and the current debate in full: mailchi.mp/ccac29b727ee...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Either extreme would put us at a record number of one-party control states in 2027. Most likely we'll see something in between, but the high number of trifectas are likely either way. Full analysis: mailchi.mp/multistate.u...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Of course, if the polls are way off base and Republicans actually have a great election, the state trifecta map could look like this in 2027, which has the GOP picking up 4 new trifectas:

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Electoral hypothetical: Let's say that Democrats have a "wave" election in 2026. Assuming they win every competitive governor race and state leg chamber, Democrats could potentially gain 6 new trifectas in 2027 with a map like this:

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

What we've learned from yesterday's primary elections in Arizona: Biggs wins GOP nomination decisively to take on incumbent Hobbs (D), the superintendent race remains a nail-biter, and a write-in candidate pulled off a real upset. Highlights and live tracker here: www.multistate.us/elections/pr...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Overall, state leg seats without a major party challenger hovers around a 40% average (2010-2024) but so far this year it's dropped to 32.6% mostly driven by strong candidate recruiting on the Dem side. www.multistate.us/elections/un...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

GOP-only seats are down from a historical 23.1% average to 14.7% this cycle. The same data point for Dem-only seats is flat. Democrats recruited candidates in every single state leg district in MD, SC, and TX, and came only 2 districts short in NC. www.multistate.us/elections/pr...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Another early sign Democrats are headed for a good election year: Uncontested state legislative seats are at their lowest rate since 2018 — a year Dems gained 7 governorships and flipped 6 leg chambers. mailchi.mp/multistate.u...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

State fiscal health is deteriorating: 40 states stable two summers ago → 34 last summer → 26 today. With 10 states now facing serious short-term challenges. Andrew Jones breaks down who's in trouble and why in this week's Morning MultiState: mailchi.mp/multistate.u...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Illinois will become the third state with a frontier AI safety law as SB 315 heads to the governor. While the IL bill aligns with CA and NY, it includes third-party audit requirements that got cut from the previous laws. We've come a long way in the 2 years since SB 1047. mailchi.mp/multistate.u...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

The last sitting governor to lose a primary was Kansas's Jeff Colyer (R) in 2018. Rhode Island's Dan McKee (D) may be next. He's down 34 points to Helena Foulkes in the latest UNH poll. This has only happened 3 times since 2010. mailchi.mp/multistate.u...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Unintended consequences of policymaking: Way back in the 2010s, voters in 6 red states enacted "health care freedom amendments" as a reaction to Obamacare. Last week, Wyoming's high court struck down the state abortion ban for violating that right to health care. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

After Gov. Walz's announcement, at least half of the 36 governor elections this year will be open seats. This is important because of the growing success rate that incumbent governors have enjoyed at the ballot box (90+%). mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

My thoughts on the AI EO: I anticipate this order resulting in a lot of lawsuits but not much policy change. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

In Reversal from 2021, Democrats Sweep Odd-Year Elections: mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

This would put split government states near the modern-day record low (i.e., near record number of one-party states) and place Democrats near a recent record high of trifectas (but still 7 less than GOP trifectas).

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

Now that the AP has called the VA governor's race for Spanberger, Democrats will have gained a new trifecta in 2026 (map pending outcome of NJ gov's race). www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

CA Gov. Newsom chose to sign the narrower AI chatbot bill on his desk, but supporters of the vetoed measure filed a initiative, circumventing the gov altogether. Considering the public's (shallow?) support of regulating AI, I’m surprised a ballot measure took this long. mailchi.mp/multistate/v...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

The first-in-the-nation AI safety law that Gov. Newsom signed into law last week is a part of a smaller — but important — subset of the 1,000+ AI-related bills we've been tracking this year. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

We broke down the AI safety bill last week (and several iterations of it previously). www.multistate.ai/updates/vol-75

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Ok, the article leaves a bit of nuance on whether Newsom was actually referring to Sen. Wiener's bill (or one of the other 10 AI bills on his desk). But it certainly sounds like he's referring to SB 53.

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

The MAHA movement is trickling down to the states in a big way. Already saw this with food additives this year. pluribusnews.com/news-and-eve... @pluribusnews.bsky.social

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

Democrats are likely to pick up a new trifecta next year after winning the VA governor's race. This moves the map to 16 dem controlled states and 23 GOP controlled states. Close to 2024's record number of trifectas. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

Waymo announces planned launches in Denver and Seattle, dipping their toes into snow-prone areas for the first time. If they follow through with their planned expansion plans, a dozen cities will have access to AVs next year! techcrunch.com/2025/09/02/w...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Industry, federal pushback foiling state AI regulation efforts. pluribusnews.com/news-and-eve...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

The most famous recent case of mid-decade redistricting sounds awfully familiar — it took place in Texas in 2003. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

States could see another hole shot through their budgets from the federal government if the CFTC allows prediction markets to offer sports betting. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

New York lawmakers passed an important AI safety bill last week, but we might not know the legislation's fate for another 6 months thanks to the governor's unique power to decide when and how to sign bills in NY. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

The early Congressional reconciliation drafts confirm what I've feared for a while: the gas tax is dead, and both the states and the federal government will rely on registration fees to fund future transportation investments. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

State lawmakers have introcued nearly 300 crypto related bills this year, but the new trend is whether states will fund a "Bitcoin Reserve." Arizona lawmakers passed such a bill yesterday. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

In one of the strangest state legislative process stories I've followed, Gov. Evers gets to keep his magic veto pen, so says the liberal wing of the state supreme court (unless the voters say otherwise). mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

People like their governors. Vermont's Gov. Scott (R) remains the most popular governor in the country, but overall, only one governor is underwater on approval, and she just declined to run for reelection. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

North Dakota might switch their legislative sessions to annual, which would leave only Texas, Nevada, and Montana as the biennial session holdouts. I dug into this, and it turns out the history of annual vs biannual in the states is quite cyclical. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

Virginia Gov. Youngkin vetoes the algorithmic discrimination bill. Not a huge surprise, but this would have been the 2nd state to enacted a comprehensive AI bill (CO SB 205 won't go into effect until 2026). Still a handful of them out there. www.multistate.ai/algorithmic-...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

The 4 strategies state lawmakers use to defeat citizen-led ballot measures: mailchi.mp/multistate/m... ✔️ Make it harder to qualify for the ballot ✔️ Refusing to approve + manipulating language ✔️ Raising the approval threshold ✔️ Ignoring, amending, or repealing

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

In case you were curious which states rely the most of federal dollars, I made a chart! • Louisiana - 50.10% • Mississippi - 45.84% • Indiana - 43.81% • South Dakota - 42.97% • New Mexico - 42.93% • Kentucky - 42.92% • Alabama - 41.62% • Michigan - 40.46% • Missouri - 40.37% • Montana - 40.29%

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

In (hopefully) the last of my (unplanned) 3-part series on how the 2nd Trump Administration has already moved the needle in the states, I take a look at the state-level DOGE groups. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Continuing my recent theme of how federal policy shifts are affecting the states, this week I look at how state anti-DEI efforts could put serious pressure on the private sector. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

How Ani-DEI Efforts Are Spreading at the State Level

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

My latest on how states will feel the impact of the Trump Administration's cost-cutting measures. Just how much of a state's budget comes from the federal government? A lot! mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

State Budgets in the Shadow of Federal Uncertainty.

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

After the courts frustrated their efforts last year, lawmakers in Utah want to make citizen-initiated statutes harder to get on the ballot. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Let's break down the political drama taking place in the Minnesota House this week. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Here's a WY lawmaker introducing a bill _promoting_ carbon dioxide framed as "asking the hard questions." www.wyomingnews.com/opinion/gues...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

We're a week into the new year, and MultiState is already tracking nearly 200 state-level AI bills. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

A heatmap of states that have introduced AI legislation so far this year showing 186 bills introduced in 22 states.

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

About 17% of state lawmakers will be new to the job next year (1,283 out of 7,386). This is slightly down from past election cycles but still outpaces Congress (which will have 14% new members in 2025). mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

By our count, state lawmakers introduced 246,405 bills over the 2023-24 legislative sessions. NY was the most with 24,284 bills and WY lawmakers only introduced 812. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Why did the total political makeup of state legislative seats only shift about 0.8% this election cycle? Well, a big reason is that only about 20% of seats are even competitive, and a third go uncontested altogether. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

A map illustrating the number of seats shifting political control in each state 2024 post-election.

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

The biggest shifts toward Republican state legislative seats were in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Nevada. The largest shifts toward Democrats were in Wisconsin and Montana (both states using new maps). Vermont was by far the biggest surprise here. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

A map showing the number and percentage of state seats shifting after the state legislative elections in 2024.

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

I crunched the numbers yesterday and pending a handful of recounts, I expect Republicans to gain about 60 state legislative seats net after this election cycle (out of 7,386 total seats). Next year I expect roughly 4,125 Republicans nationwide, 3,244 Dems, and 17 Indies. mailchi.mp/multistate/m...

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Bill Kramer @bkramer.bsky.social · 18/03/2024

Utah also enacted several bills to combat the proliferation of sexual deepfakes, making it the 11th state to explicitly do so. www.multistate.ai/deepfakes-se...

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