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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 16h

#TreasuriesToday: Happy Fiscal New Year! Yields mixed, off session highs, with curve steeper. 10Y reached 5.34%, highest since 2002. Next week's 3Y/10Y/30Y auction sizes TBA at 11am & buyback of up to $6b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm. Sept index return -2.24%, YTD -2.8%.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed. Yesterday's ranges included highest 30Y (near 5.62%) since 2002. $202b coupon settlement ($58.4b net). Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.07 year. Coupon auctions resume Oct. 6.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 1bp-3bp, off session highs including new YTD high for 2Y near 4.96%. Monday's ranges included multiyear highs for 5Y-30Y. TIPS buyback of up to $750m in 1Y-10Y maturity bucket closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The 30-year "Covid Bond" sold in May 2020 with a 1.25% coupon traded at a record low dollar price under 43 today.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by 3bp-6bp. Day's ranges include new multiyear highs for 10Y (5.23%) & 30Y (5.54%). Ahead this week: month-end index rebalancing to extend duration by estimated 0.07 year. Coupon auctions resume Oct. 6.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by as much as 3bp-4bp inside Thursday's ranges (which included highest 5Y & 10Y since 2007, 30Y since 2004) with curve steeper. October options expire. Sept. 30 index rebalancing to extend duration by estimated 0.07 year.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed with curve steeper. 10Y, 20Y & 30Y reached new multiyear highs. For $44b 7Y note auction at 1pm WI yield near 5.06% is higher than all results since tenor's 2009 reintroduction. Buyback of up to $6b in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp, off session highs including year's high for 2Y (4.79% vs Tuesday's 4.787% auction stop). $70b 5Y auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.86%, higher than results since Oct 2023. Target size for Thursday's 20Y-30Y buyback TBA at 11am.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 2bp-3bp, off session highs including highest 2Y (near 4.79%) since July 1, 2024. $69b 2Y note auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.75%, higher than results since June 2024.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 3bp-5bp amid steeper yield declines in most European bond markets. Ahead this week: $69b 2Y, $70b 5Y, $44b 7Y new-issue auctions Tues-Thurs & 1st expanded buyback in 20Y-30Y sector Thurs, with target size (at least $4b) TBA Weds.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by as much as 5bp-6bp (2Y-5Y) despite lower oil prices, flattening curve. Ahead next week: $69b 2Y, $70b 5Y, $44b 7Y new-issue auctions Tues-Thurs & 1st expanded buyback in 20Y-30Y sector Thurs, with target size (at least $4b) TBA Weds.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices & UK yields by 2bp-5bp, inside Wednesday's ranges. $19b 10Y TIPS reopening at 1pm has WI yield near 2.64%. Buyback of up to $4b in 7Y-10Y sector closes at 2pm. Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $69b 2Y, $70b 5Y, $44b 7Y projected.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp inside this week's ranges as oil prices fall & UK bonds surge. For Fed rate decision at 2pm, some 23bp of tightening is priced in. Two hikes by year-end & three by mid-2027 are fully priced in.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed, off highs including highest 10Y (5.04%) since 2007. Curve steeper. $13b 20Y reopening at 1pm has WI yield near 5.40%, exceeding all results since 2020 debut. $119b coupon settlement ($76b net). Buyback of up to $500m in long TIPS closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve slightly flatter, mostly inside Friday's selloff ranges, however 10Y eked out new multiyear high near 4.98%. Reopening auctions ahead this week: $13b 20Y Tues (day earlier than normal because FOMC has Weds), $19b 10Y TIPS Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 1bp-2bp, off session highs including YTD highs for all tenors. Pre-CPI, swaps price in 70% of a Sept. 16 Fed rate hike & fully price one in for October. Reopening auctions next week: $13b 20Y Tues, $19b 10Y TIPS Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by 1bp-3bp near session highs including YTD highs for 2Y, 5Y & 10Y. $22b 30Y reopening (1st) at 1pm has WI yield near 5.323%, last exceeded in 2001. Buyback of up to $6b (upsized from $2b) in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by as much as 2bp-3bp. 2Y-5Y reached YTD highs. $39b 10Y reopening (1st) at 1pm has WI yield near 4.81%, exceeding results since 2007. Size of tomorrow's 1st expanded (from $2b original) buyback (in 10Y-20Y range) TBA at 11am.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by 1bp-2bp. $58b 3Y auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.48%, exceeding results since June 2024. Ahead this week: $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (1st) Weds & Thurs & first expanded buyback operation Thurs (max size TBA Weds).

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed inside yesterday's rally ranges ahead of Aug jobs report, with a Sept Fed rate hike about half priced in. Auctions ahead next (holiday-shortened week): $58b 3Y new issue Tues, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (1st) Weds & Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session lows with oil prices rising. Next week's auction sizes at 11am; $58b 3Y new issue, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (1st) projected. Buyback (cash management) of up to $1.25b in 1m-2Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session highs including highest 2Y (4.41%) & 5Y (4.57%) since January 2025, 10Y (4.82%) since November 2023, amid retreating oil prices. 30Y topped 5.29% for first time since before Aug. 19 buyback announcement.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices (& hefty slate of new corporate bonds anticipated) by 1bp-3bp with curve steeper. YTD highs reached by 5Y (4.536%) & 10Y (4.792%) & 2Y came within 1bp of its July 23 high. August index return 0.3%, YTD -0.5%.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve steeper, reversing some of Friday's sharp flattening move. $207b coupon settlement ($74.6b net). Month-end index extension at 4pm will extend index duration by estimated 0.10 year. Coupon auctions resume Sept. 8.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields slightly higher inside week's ranges with curve steeper ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Ahead next week, Monday's month-end index extension to increase its duration by estimated 0.10 year.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp as oil prices stabilize after past week's decline. New 5Y still just below 4.393% auction stop. $44b 7Y auction at 1pm (last coupon sale until Sept. 8) has WI yield near 4.52%, higher than 7Y results since May 2024.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher (despite lower oil prices) by less than 2bp with curve flatter, however new 2Y (4.19%) holds small gain vs Tuesday's 4.204% auction stop. $70b 5Y auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.36% vs last month's 4.408% result, highest since December 2024.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 2bp-3bp. $69b 2Y auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.23%. Last month's 4.315% result was highest since December 2024. Buyback of up to $4b in 5Y-7Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields mostly lower with oil prices (& Canadian bond yields with steeper declines) by as much as 3bp with curve flatter. 2Y little changed, above 50-day average level. Auctions ahead this week: $69b 2Y Tues, $70b 5Y Weds, $44b 7Y Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

This transfixing display of bricks manufactured (c. 1850-2000) on the banks of the Hudson appears at the Hudson River Maritime Museum in Kingston. Last year we tossed all but about 20 of the dozens left behind by a previous homeowner. Still-legible brands are circled.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday will return Aug. 24, rested and ready. Peace

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 2bp-4bp. New 10Y 4.67% vs 4.683% auction stop, highest since 2007. For $25b 30Y at 1pm, WI yield near 5.23% exceeds results since 2001. Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $16b 20Y new issue, $8b 30Y TIPS reopening projected.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The new 10Y note to be sold via $42b auction at 1pm (the Aug36) appears (WI yield 4.68%) headed for a coupon of 4.625% (matching Feb35 as highest since 2007) vs 4.375% for the current (the May36). That issue has been as cheap as 4.745% (July 31) and as rich (June 29) as 4.36%.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

TreasuriesToday: Yields down 2bp-3bp near session lows reached concurrently with oil prices. New 3Y 4.26% vs Tuesday's 4.291% auction result. $42b 10Y new-issue auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.67%, higher than all but one result since 2007.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed, off session highs after oil prices stabilized. Quarterly new-issue auctions begin with $58b 3Y at 1pm. WI yield near 4.31% exceeds 3Y stops since Jan 2025. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by as much as 2bp-3bp, inside Friday's rally ranges, with curve flatter & short-term rate contracts still pricing in a 25bp Fed rate hike by year-end. New issue auctions ahead this week: $58b 3Y Tues, $42b 10Y Weds, $25b 30Y Thurs.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower (with oil prices) by 2bp-3bp inside Thursday's (mainly oil-driven) selloff ranges. Pre July jobs data, short-term rate contracts price in ~15bp of Fed tightening for Sept, ~33bp by year-end & nearly 50bp by mid-2027.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Good morning to everyone including this worker, whose gusto for breakfast rivals my own.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by ~3bp across tenors, near session highs reached after Alphabet set large bond offering. Wednesday's narrow ranges included lowest 2Y (4.175%) since July 20, reached toward end of US day without clear provocation.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The majority was correct. "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

home.treasury.gov

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve flatter as oil firms. Treasury Dept at 8:30am announces next week's auction sizes & projections for August to October, with focus again on whether guidance on stasis will change from "at least the next several quarters."

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Here's my shakedown of big US bond dealers on how they're thinking about tomorrow's Treasury Quarterly Refunding. Next week's note and bond auction sizes will be announced and, by convention, sizes through October projected. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

Bond Dealers Expect US Will Avoid Signaling Auction Increases

The US Treasury will need to increase the sizes of at least some of its fixed-rate borrowing programs next year but is unlikely to signal the shift just yet, according to bond dealers.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session highs, with oil prices edging lower. Ahead Wednesday, Treasury Dept projects auction sizes for August to October, with focus again on whether guidance on stasis will change from "at least the next several quarters."

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 5bp-6bp, trailing steeper declines in UK bond market, with oil down more than 5%. Friday's ranges included YTD highs for 10Y (4.745%) & 30Y (5.28%). July index return -1.1%, YTD -3.5%. Ahead Weds, Tsy Dept projects auction sizes for Aug-Oct.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp with curve slightly flatter but still notably steeper on the week after Fed didn't hike. Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr. Ahead next week, Treasury Dept Weds announces auction sizes for Aug-Oct.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed with curve steeper, extending Wednesday's dramatic post-FOMC moves (5s30s shifted 7bp, most in a year, as 30Y rose 11bp to 2007 levels). Short-term rate contracts price in ~16bp of tightening for September & 2 hikes by mid-2027.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-3bp with oil benchmarks up nearly 5%. New 7Y 4.51% vs Tuesday's 4.473% auction result. Ahead of 2pm Fed rate decision, short-term rate contracts price in about 9bp of tightening & fully price in 2 hikes by mid-2027.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-3bp with oil benchmarks down 1%-2%. $44b 7Y note auction at 1pm (last coupon sale until Aug. 11) has WI yield near 4.50%, higher than 7Y auction results since December 2024. Buyback (max $2b) in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.

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Beth Stanton @bethstanton.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp inside last week's ranges, which included YTD highs for all tenors but 30Y, amid steep oil-price drop. Final coupon auctions of May-July financing quarter begin with 2Y at 11:30am, $70b 5Y at 1pm. WI yields exceed results since Dec 2024.

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