iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 12h

"There's a masculinity crisis!!" Also "Mooooom! Bouie is mean and scary. Make him stoooop!"

BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I do think there's a difference between a Talaraico win and a Hinojoso win. The first can be blamed on Paxton as a uniquely awful and corrupt candidate. The second is the complete collapse of the GOPs biggest state redoubt

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This isn't to dismiss or excuse these actions. The threat is just different. They're not going to meaningfully prevent people from voting. I think it's clear they're hoping to create a pretext for state officials to discard election results.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This is stupid, dangerous and mal-intentioned. But again, we have to remind people that they simply don't have the bodies. 1K is not enough to matter at all. Your typical congressional district has 200+ polling stations.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

He told Pierzynski earlier in the year that he's been following along

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

When all the cockroaches and worms of the Trump admin try to rehab their images after he's gone, we can't let this go. Rubio promised that PEPFAR wouldn't be impacted. It happened anyway. When he tries to be a "Normal Republican" in 6 years, remember he let hundreds of thousands die for no reason.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

He'll quickly be at the point where his only comps on approval historically are: - late-stage GWB - post-Watergate Nixon - (sadly) post-firing-MacArthur Truman The public is not going to be in a generous mood

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

There's basically no chance that would work. 1. Trump couldn't manage a "rally around the flag" bump even when COVID hit. He won't get one for something obviously his fault. 2. He's lazy and an awful communicator. So he'll have done no work to convince the public that invading cuba is necessary.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Ossoffs been leaning a lot more into anti-corruption stuff which has the nice benefit of being mostly free.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

This is actually why I think Ossoffs approach is a much better fit for the environment than progressives. We're not doing any new, big programs. Sorry. Every dime is going to reducing the debt and preventing Medicare and social security from collapsing.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

"Why are Republicans worried?" Because they believe the Presidents lies about election fraud.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

"Why are Democrats worried?" Because the President has lied about election fraud, was caught intimidating election officials into fabricating results in his favor and then attempted a coup based on lies about fraud. And he's lying about fraud again and interfering w/ election administration.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There's an entire conservative intellectual sphere that can't ask "why" about anything because it would ruin their defense mechanism of pretending that Trump doesn't exist.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

"Wow! The out-of-power party is about to have a huge midterm performance! All of our problems have been solved!"

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

"Short-lived" 50% of the years in the chart

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

He basically did this for the Georgia Senate runoffs in 2021. He'll absolutely do it again

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

It's why Matthew McConaughey is the best celebrity. Made his millions and now he just hangs out on the sidelines of every UT event

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

It'll be way cooler when Burnham collapses and we're graced with the Mark Carney Personal Union

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

"oh but if they're talking about safety, then they don't need to talk about the energy costs" Really? What have you observed about opposition to data centers (which is like an 80-20 issue) that makes you think this will just go away if Anthropic keeps talking about alignment?

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Like, let's take a concrete example. Suppose you're mad that AI training and inferencing burns a lot of energy. Does adding regulatory steps that slow down development (even if they don't accomplish anything else, even if they don't slow down development much) make that problem better or worse?

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I know that tech people can be annoying, but can anyone explain the galaxy brain take behind "introducing regulation on AI for safety" makes it *less* likely that other impacts of AI would be regulated?

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Pour one out for "we love football and AES doesn't!". Such a brilliant attack thwarted by a single photo of non-white people enjoying football

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Now do Michigan Gov vs Michigan Sen

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

No actually the President is the most powerful villain

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I just think it's funny that, even in the most charitable interpretation of Vance's narrative, he's more afraid of making his boss mad than he is about US Servicemen dying.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I just think it's funny that he thinks he can land that plane. Pal, you can't go out and say "this war is different because we have a *smart* President" and then turn around and say "well, yes, but secretly, in the privacy of my own home, I once whispered that the war was dumb"

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

And after the Houthi PC Small Group re-established deterrence?!?! How?

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Sure, but the implied point is about how the President retains control of the party because he retains control of the base. 70% of voters in GOP primaries approve of Trump. Sure, maybe there are former Republicans who don't vote in GOP primaries anymore - but that's sort of the point!

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The appeasement framing elides an important dynamic -the "economic anxiety" narrative is useful to the policy goals of certain factions in the left-center coalition.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Not only was he not in the rubble, but spent the aftermath of 9/11 bragging about how he now owned the tallest building in NYC

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

And "have SCOTUS strip a 50 year old right that highly motivates POTUS' party" is also not happening so even 2022 is out of the question. So then you're just looking at a range from "we get annihilated" (2014) to "we get nuked from orbit" (1994, 2006, 2010, 2018)

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

It's wild how disconnected midterm strategy discussion is from history. The only strategies that have avoided POTUS' party losing the midterms are 1) win the Cold War, 2) have the opposition impeach a wildly popular president over something the public thinks is stupid and 3) have 9/11 happen.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

I just can't believe that tv deals can destroy a 110 year old conference but can't make Michigan play Notre Dame.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Inauguration Day 2029 is going to be sick

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

It's why, with all the trade stuff, commentators are constantly inventing bespoke explanations of his goals or his complaints. They genuinely can't countenance the idea that the President could be so dumb that he thinks any trade deficit is bad.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Donald Trump's greatest superpower is having beliefs that are so idiosyncratic and stupid that media, commentators are unable to actually take them at face value.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Did it ever? This latest jobs report just seems like the latest in a long line of Doves freaking out over the smallest whiff of weakness in the labor market followed by the labor market continuing to be strong.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Genuinely funny how people have such an ingrained hatred of statistics as made-up, neoliberal propaganda that a graph of "literally just asking people what they think about their own circumstances" has to be rejected.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Can't wait for the followup - remaking It's a Wonderful Life but with Mr Potter as the hero

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Remember that time that it was a huge scandal when Austin was in the hospital for a couple of days?

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

We're not talking about the absolute number (73% in 2025). We're talking about the number relative to the past (73% vs 75% in 2019) when consumer sentiment was good. Unless people who weren't doing well became **more reluctant** to admit it in 2025 than they were in 2019, it doesn't matter.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Putting aside the ridiculousness of this trade (you receive: forgiveness for crimes against the nation, we receive: you not being an asshole), maybe we could reflect on how dumb the structure of this would be. Dems give an irrevocable benefit. Trump pledges an ongoing behavior.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Gee that sounds like a very serious sanction. Let me just check who is buying all that Iranian oil...

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The biggest flaw in our media isn't an obsession with balance or assuming good faith to a fault. It's a refusal to accept answers that are mundane. Tariff policy isn't coming from some profound repudiation of economists. It's because the President knows less about the economy than a hs freshman.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

What is maddening about the Trump era is that all policy discussions are fake. The reason for any policy decision is that the President is a complete moron. But that's really boring, so the ideological zambonis come in, inject their own rationales and insist you ignore the actual President.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

No argument has been made to Americans for what specific conditions must be resolved. Only vague complaints about a deal *that he negotiated* and some hyper specific complaints (ex. tariff rate quotas on dairy). There's nothing that Americans care about or believe is worth any sacrifice.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

And, contra commentators who imply that Americans are too indulgent to bear these costs, this willingness is driven by perceived benefit. Trump made the stakes existential for Canada.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Time and again we keep seeing people believe that conflict is determined simply by which side can cost the other more. Willingness and ability to accept those costs is determinative.

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BernankesBeard @bernankesbeard.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

The next Dem President needs to end Cooper's and other careers. Not because the war is unsuccessful. Not because they didn't push back against it publicly. Because they went beyond their obligations to serve President and violated their obligation to tell the truth to the American people.

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