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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/09/2026

Blake Snell looks healthy and ready for the stretch run. Only 26 innings, but Cy-worthy swinging strike rates are back and he's avoiding hard contact better than ever. Full endorsement for the fantasy and real playoffs. #MLB #Dodgers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/09/2026

Mickey Gasper is a fun story; 146 wRC+ as a 30-year-old late bloomer. My numbers love his patient approach. Lack of power against lefties is the biggest hole. If he only faced RHP fastballs, he'd be a MVP candidate. #MLB #RedSox

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 01/09/2026

I hate to say it, but we've hit the Shohei Ohtani decline phase. After three seasons with wRC+ in the 170-180's he's now at 144. Worse, my point-in-time projection for him is 129. Hilarious that he can fall 30 points in wRC+ and still be one of the best hitters in baseball. #MLB #Dodgers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 28/08/2026

Kyle Harrison is one of the best starters in baseball, full stop. Pitch mix looks more like a closer than a starter, but it works for him. Swinging strikes and hard to square up for hard contact. If he learns a changeup, watch out. #MLB #Brewers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 28/08/2026

I hadn't noticed how badly Zach Neto's skills have eroded because his counting stats look fine. Power is basically gone against righties and his eye is gone against both. He's having one of those late Michael Young 700 PA mirage seasons. Huge sell going into 2027. #MLB #Angels

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 27/08/2026

Shane Baz is having a strange season. My numbers roughly match up with his results -- he's a ~4 ERA guy. Decent strikeout and walk numbers. Sometimes you are just at the mercy of your defense/BABIP/run support and you go 4-14. #MLB #Orioles

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 27/08/2026

Did you know that Otto Lopez is Top 5 in fWAR? Great season, but my predictive model kind of hates him: 85 wRC+ projection, 78 against RHP. Given, much of his value is defense and baserunning, but I would be surprised if he could maintain his 114 wRC+ in the long run. #MLB #Marlins

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 25/08/2026

Really rough stretch for Zack Wheeler, but I'm still buying. Terrible BABIP and HR/FB rates, which I know are part luck and part skill, but are looking unlucky to me. Above average swinging strikes on his fastball against both hands and good Hard BIP numbers. He'll be fine. #MLB #Phillies

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 25/08/2026

It was good to see Big Dumper have a night. I've been a Cal defender all season. My wRC+ projection for him has been around 100-110 while his actual was in the 70's. My projection for him last year was in the 130's while his actual was in the 160's. Could not have a stranger two years if you tried.

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 24/08/2026

In the last 30 days, no player has a higher adjusted bat speed (takes into account location, movement, speed, and count) than Jordan Walker. He's on a heater, but the predictive model is seeing cracks with his eye and contact rates against righties. Caution down the stretch. #MLB #Cardinals

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 24/08/2026

Spencer Jones is giving Joey Gallo. All-or-nothing hitter who swings hard (+5.6 adjusted bat speed) at the expense of consistent contact (-2.1 adjusted square-up). Solid tools to build from, but as pitchers figure out weaknesses, he's going to need to find ways to hit singles or take walks. #MLB

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 21/08/2026

My model still likes Christian Yelich quite a lot -- at least against righties. Still has a great eye against both, but the power and swinging strikes against lefties have cratered. Against righties, he has good contact and good enough power to remain a near-elite bat (proj 134 wRC+). #MLB #Brewers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 21/08/2026

I continue to be perplexed by Lars Nootbaar. He has an 89 wRC+ and a projected 137 (141 against RHP!). Elite eye and contact should be setting a floor that is higher than league average, but the results always seem to lag. He hit a pinch hit homer on Wednesday, maybe that will get him going. #MLB

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 21/08/2026

Noah Cameron has been a nice surprise this season, but I see warning signs. Below average swinging strikes on his fastball. He mostly throws breaking balls, which is fine, but those have below average swinging strikes too. Projected 113 wRC+ allowed going forward; 117 against righties. #MLB #Royals

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 20/08/2026

Edgardo Henriquez is a fun arm for the Dodgers. According to my data, in the last month, no one has been harder to square up. The projected wRC+ shows an extreme platoon split (56 vs RHB, 115 vs LHB). PitchingBot has him at 127 Stuff+, 87 Location+. A man of extremes. #MLB

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 19/08/2026

I'm buying the Troy Melton breakout. Good swinging strikes on his fastball and can throw secondary stuff for strikes. My model likes him a lot more against righties than lefties, but overall this is a solid pitcher. I don't think the sub-2 ERA can hold up, but I'd buy sub-4. #MLB #Tigers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 18/08/2026

PCA's wRC+ is 154 and my projection is 107. His hard hit rates don't justify his current power output and he rarely hits medium balls in play at all. Whatever I'm missing, other systems are missing too -- ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat all have him in the 110-120's. Generational sell high opportunity. #MLB

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 18/08/2026

Fair enough. He outperforms his xSLG every year, even with the Rays. So maybe it's just something about his swing rather than a luck thing.

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 18/08/2026

Isaac Paredes is a strange case. This year he's gone all in on contact, but it's come at the expense of power. His worst pull rates in years. Has 16 HRs, but SLG is 47 points higher than xSLG, so it's a mirage. Let it rip Isaac! #MLB #Astros

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 18/08/2026

I've been bullish on Kyle Tucker this season, but it's hard to ignore the downturn. Sometimes we see a player struggle because they are choosing contact over power or vice versa. Tucker has negative residual bat speed and square-up percentage, which tells me he can't do either. Hidden injury? #MLB

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 17/08/2026

Brandon Pfaadt is a fun story; 7-1 with a 3.11 ERA. I'm skeptical he can keep it up. His best skill is limiting hard contact, but he's doing so mostly by throwing out of the strike zone. This is a BABIP regression time bomb. He's never had a BABIP below .315 and right now he's at .259. #MLB #DBacks

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 17/08/2026

I'm excited Jackson Jobe is back. He has a 6+ ERA in two starts, but his skills look very good. Most of the data here dates back to pre-surgery, but good swinging strikes on several pitches and can throw secondary pitches for strikes. Sleeper for the stretch run. #MLB #Tigers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 17/08/2026

I love a late career breakout. Michael Peterson didn't make it to the majors until 30, and now at 32 my numbers have him as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Elite level swinging strikes on his fastball against both hands. Limits hard and medium contact. Closer-worthy. #MLB #Marlins

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 14/08/2026

The big question for any type of sports projections is how much to weight recent trends. My model derives weights based on a rolling window of 100 leading plate appearances. It thinks Edwin Diaz is fine. The thing to watch is swinging strikes. Right now, they are down, but only 11 innings of data.

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 13/08/2026

Big night for Trent Grisham. I've been on him all year. Hits both hands well. Flawless against righty fastballs. Monster stretch run incoming. #MLB #Yankees

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 12/08/2026

As a Lawrence Butler fan, this year has been rough. He has a sub-80 wRC+ right now, but his skills are much better than that. He has good patience and contact skills, and has decent power against righties. 120's wRC+ stretch run incoming? #MLB #Athletics

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 12/08/2026

I'm not sure what happened with Joc Pederson last year, but he's all the way back. Gotta love a pure platoon player; projected 141 wRC+ vs RHP, 86 vs. LHP. It's very rare to have a hitter with a positive residuals on bat speed and squared-up percentage at the same time. #MLB #Rangers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 12/08/2026

Riley Greene currently has a Top 5 wRC+ projection in my system (141). He is much better against righties - nearly flawless against RHP fastballs - but is patient enough against lefties to compete. Underrated. #MLB #Tigers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 11/08/2026

Over the last 30 days, the leaders in Hard BIP over expected are Rice, Alonso, and... Jackson Merrill. Further, Merrill has positive Medium BIP over expected, which the other two don't. He's on fire. Yet, my wRC+ projection for him is only 103 because he refuses to take a ball. #MLB #Padres

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 11/08/2026

MacKenzie Gore is one of my guys. Don't trust his 4.43 ERA, his skills are outstanding. Good swinging strikes and limits hard and medium contact on most pitch types. Projected wRC+ allowed is 82, which isn't quite ace-level, but a solid fantasy starter. #MLB #Rangers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 10/08/2026

Spent some time reworking the Baseball DNA visuals. Still some work to do, but it's getting there. Here's Cal Raleigh's. He has a +3.9 adjusted bat speed, which is very good, but the swinging strike rates set a low ceiling. Red residuals for hard and medium balls in play across the board. #MLB

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 05/08/2026

Gage Jump is 4-7 with a 4.59 ERA, but I'm loving his underlying skills. Outstanding hard contact avoidance and very good control. I'm not alone -- he's got a 107 Stuff+. Strong rebound incoming. #MLB #Athletics

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 05/08/2026

The Paul Skenes regression looks like more than just bad luck to me. Velo down a tick, quality of contact is up. This is still a very good Baseball DNA profile, with a 90 wRC+ allowed projection, but it just feels like a disappointment given his first two years in the league. #MLB #Pirates

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

Heliot Ramos is an interesting acquisition for the Yankees. Some decent skills here. He's basically an all-or-nothing hitter who survives by fouling off tough pitches. Possible breakout considering the change of park and a NYY infrastructure that breathed new life into Grisham and Goldschmidt. #MLB

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

Foster Griffin is a good pickup for Cleveland. Not a big swing-and-miss guy, but has good control and is one of the best in the league at limiting hard contact. In fact, he's second only to Nathan Eovaldi in expected hard BIP per PA. #MLB #Guardians

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

Lars Nootbaar could be a big pickup for Arizona. I love his skillset -- elite patience, elite contact, good power. Currently has his best hard hit rate of his career. This is a 120's-130's wRC+ guy if he can stay on the field. #MLB #DBacks

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

I've been advocating for Tyler Mahle as a good trade target, so I like this move for Atlanta. Refuses to throw strikes with his fastball. Good at limiting hard contact. His current ERA is over 5, but 'd expect an ERA in the high 3's the rest of the way. #MLB #Braves

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

Total conjecture, but I think the Blue Jays see something in Jose Soriano they can fix. My numbers loved him during his early season run, but cratered over the past couple of months. The model still likes him against righties, but sees a disaster against lefties. Approach change incoming? #BlueJays

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

I'm generally bearish on Adley Rutschman's profile. Given, I'm only looking at offense, but there isn't anything here to justify a wRC+ over 100. Best skill is patience and contact, but doesn't turn that approach into much beyond some medium balls-in-play. Maybe Fenway will agree with him. #RedSox

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

I love unique players. According to my numbers, Luis Arraez' hard/medium/soft ball in play breakdown for the year is 6/156/78. He also has a -46 residual swinging strikes (46 fewer than an average player would, given the same pitches). Unfortunately, it only adds up to a predicted 77 wRC+. #Phillies

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

I'm bearish on the Robbie Ray trade. Still a few standout swing-and-miss skills; fastballs against lefties and secondary stuff against righties. However, control and quality contact are problems. His ERA is near 3, but that's a BABIP and Oracle Park mirage. League average expectations. #MLB #Padres

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 03/08/2026

This has been a Jo Adell stan account for two years, so I'm excited about his change of scenery. The predictive model loves him against lefties. Good power on secondary pitches and survives fastballs by fouling them off. Solid pickup, IMHO. #MLB #Guardians

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 31/07/2026

Let’s not forget the Kaz Sazaki suitcase incident.

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 31/07/2026

I'm both worried and not worried about Hunter Greene. Worried because his fastball numbers aren't looking dominant anymore -- it actually has below average expected swinging strikes. However, his breaking ball looks absolutely killer. The predictive model still thinks he's ace-level. #MLB #Reds

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 30/07/2026

I'm buying the Garrett Mitchell breakout or reclamation or whatever you want to call it. Excellent patience and shockingly decent power (14% barrel rate!) even though he rarely hits it in the air. Whiffs will limit his ceiling, but a projected 130 wRC+ is outstanding. #MLB #Brewers

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 30/07/2026

Another solid outing last night for Christian Scott. The predictive model really likes him against righties, but is skeptical of his abilities to get lefties out. More swinging strikes would be helpful, but this is a solid profile. #MLB #Mets

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 29/07/2026

For the year, Bo Bichette has -89 residual balls (still working on my naming convention here, lol). The point is, an average batter would have 89 more called balls given the same pitches Bichette has seen. He's swinging his way into bad counts and doesn't have the contact or power to make it work.

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 29/07/2026

Joey Cantillo has given up 4+ runs his last two starts, but generally I'm a fan of his skillset. Very tough against lefties due to a good breaking ball. Good enough against righties. Start-to-start consistency depends on how many lefties he's facing (zero against CIN today). #MLB #Reds

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 28/07/2026

After my Ward deep dive today, I added Net Patience to the leaderboard, defined as balls minus called strikes. Best this year is McGonigle, Tucker, and Freeman. Worst are Scott, Meidroth, Vargas. Kwan being in the bottom 10 fits my mental model; patient to a fault and pitchers are taking advantage.

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Bergerball @bergerball.com · 28/07/2026

Taylor Ward is an interesting case. In my numbers, he leads the league with +120 called balls above expected. Meaning, if you take the expected outcomes of every pitch he's seen this year, you would expect 635 balls and he actually has 755. Is this good? (1/2)

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