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Bear Market Brief

@bearmarketbrief.bsky.social

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Russia's Economy and Politics. In Brief.

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 20h

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) $2.9 billion - the sales of the German food retailer Metro Group in Russia in the 2024/25 financial year. A presidential decree placed Metro’s Russian assets under temporary state management last week. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 349 - of 450, the number of United Russia deputies in the new convocation of the State Duma, up from 324 in 2021, a record and a constitutional supermajority. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

What makes Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman significant enough for the European Union to go to great lengths to lift their sanctions? The EU passed a three-year extension for 3,000 individual sanctions in order to lift the aforementioned two. Read this week's Brief to find out why.

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

To address its precarious finances, Russia plans to defer debt repayments to regions and raise further taxes. While the focus remains on war spending, the government announced budget allocations for families and infrastructure projects to placate public concerns. More in the #BearMarketBrief ⬇️

Let’s Get Fiscal

New taxes target passive income, e-commerce, and select producers in Russia’s 2027 budget

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

In this week's #BearMarketBrief, András Tóth-Czifra and Lee Block highlight: - the parameters of Russia's 2027 federal budget - a successful push for the relief of sanctions against two oligarchs - the arrest of Alexander Kynev, a political scientist critical of the recent Duma elections

bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Let’s Get Fiscal

New taxes target passive income, e-commerce, and select producers in Russia’s 2027 budget

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 4.8 trillion rubles - the planned deficit of the federal budget in 2027, according to Vladimir Putin. This would be an estimated 2 percent of GDP. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 400 billion rubles - the projected losses to Russian online marketplaces from drone strikes, according to an analysis by Data Insight. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1)3,300 km - The distance from Novy Urengoy to Ukraine, the site of a successful Ukrainian drone strike. The strike hit an industrial plant in Russia’s largest oil- and gas-producing region. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Watch the event discussing "Moscow's Mercenaries," a new book on the #WagnerGroup by Christopher M. Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Colin P. Clarke. www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZF9...

Moscow’s Mercenaries: The Rise and Fall of the Wagner Group

FPRI’s Eurasia Program Director Dr. Emily Holland hosted a book talk marking the release of Moscow’s Mercenaries: The Rise and Fall of the Wagner Group with authors Christopher M. Faulkner, Raphael…

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 8.2 trillion rubles - the new forecast by the Central Bank of Russia for this year’s federal budget deficit.

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 6 percent - Vladimir Putin’s approval rating according to the Public Opinion Foundation after its largest drop during the duration of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

China stopped providing Russia with technology for large-tonnage ice-class ships, which Russia needs to help turn the Northern Sea Route into a major trade route. Further delays will make investment for Russian Arctic cities less likely. Read more in the latest #BearMarketBrief.

Fruitful attacks

Ukraine targets Wildberries warehouses with a new wave of drone strikes

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 25.6 percent - the amount by which trade between Russia and China rose year-over-year in the first half of 2026, according to Russian official data. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

In this edition of the #BearMarketBrief, András Tóth-Czifra highlights Russia's cost of war shifts onto low-level budgets. An example is the city of Bodaibo, which is set to lose 500 million rubles in an anticipated tax reallocation. buff.ly/yfHaSzP

The ongoing fuel crisis begins to affect other industries

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Sara Ashabugh highlights Ukraine's launch of an operation targeting Russian commercial ships, forcing Russia to restrict shipping in the Sea of Azov. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture affirmed that grain ships are prepared to re-route. Read more in the latest #BearMarketBrief.

bearmarketbrief.substack.com

The ongoing fuel crisis begins to affect other industries

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

As Russian natural resources and personnel numbers are dwindling, revisit Senior Fellow Suzanne Loftus' report: Russia's War of Self Destruction. She highlights Russia's rising costs across sectors, demographic challenges, eroding support networks, and declining influence abroad. buff.ly/2ZsZUvl

Russia’s War of Self-Destruction - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Russia’s war against Ukraine has precipitated a large-scale structural decline for the Kremlin across economic, military, and geopolitical dimensions.

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

In the latest edition of the #BearMarketBrief, Sara Ashbaugh and @minczifra.bsky.social break down the impact of fuel shortages on agriculture and public services, new shipping restrictions in the Sea of Azov, and a financing scheme that funds the war effort. buff.ly/yfHaSzP.

The ongoing fuel crisis begins to affect other industries

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 7 trillion rubles - corporate debt arrears including bank loans and debts towards suppliers and employees. Employers have criticized the policy, but it appears likely to stay due to higher inflationary pressure. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 5.73 trillion rubles - Russia’s federal budget deficit in the first half of 2026, almost 70 percent more than the same period in 2025. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Check out the latest #BearMarketBrief for updates on increasing Russian federal measures addressing the fuel shortage, Ukraine obtaining the US Patriot missile system license, Valentin Konovalov's inclusion on the Communist party federal list, and more. buff.ly/QEmOhjb

You reap what you sow

Ukrainian drone strikes exacerbate Russia’s fuel crisis

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

The Kremlin confirmed that it is looking to allies to supplement a falling fuel supply, including Kazakhstan, who says a formal request has not been placed, and India, who denies that Indian companies sell oil directly to Russia. More details in the latest #BearMarketBrief. buff.ly/uZSfkbA

The United Russia party names its candidates for the State Duma elections

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 2-3 percent - the predicted drop in investments this year according to German Gref, the head of Sberbank, if the Central Bank does not accelerate its key rate-cutting. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 60 percent - the percentage of Russians who believe that the economic conditions in their area are getting worse. This is the first time since 2006 that the majority of Russians believe the economy is deteriorating. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

In the latest #BearMarketBrief, Sara Ashbaugh and András Tóth-Czifra highlight the United Russia Party's declining popularity, decreased refining capacity for gasoline production, and regions declaring states of high alert due to the fuel crisis. buff.ly/uZSfkbA

The United Russia party names its candidates for the State Duma elections

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 55 percent - Putin’s approval rating prognosis for September 2026, according to slides presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

"Social media posts showing detainments in the city of Penza suggest that military recruitment officers are conducting raids to boost mobilization, searching for draft evaders and anyone of age who hasn’t yet registered for military service." Read more in the latest #BearMarketBrief. buff.ly/ViuXw2Z

Ukrainian drone strikes continue to restrict Russia’s fuel supply

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Check out the latest #BearMarketBrief for updates on amplified fuel shortages, the Communist Party's candidate lineup, and mass detainments pressuring men to sign up for the Russian military. buff.ly/lNN7QBV

Ukrainian drone strikes continue to restrict Russia’s fuel supply

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 550 billion rubles - the amount of confiscated assets from billionaire Vadim Moshkovich, founder of the agricultural company Rusagro, that now belong to the state. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 203,000 - the staffing shortfall in Russia’s Federal Fire Service as of the end of 2025, indicating that the wartime anomalies of Russia’s labor market are exacerbating major shortages of personnel in vital public services. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

"The week’s drone strikes deepened an ongoing fuel crisis. Regions have introduced fuel rationing and signs reading 'No' were placed on fuel pump nozzles." Read more about fuel shortages in Russia in the latest #BearMarketBrief. buff.ly/CUU9JN1

Moscow does not believe in black rain

Ukrainian drones set fire to an oil refinery near central Moscow

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Check out the latest #BearMarketBrief for updates on the largest drone strike on Moscow, an increasing number of regional deficits across Russia, and black rain falling from the sky. buff.ly/CUU9JN1

Moscow does not believe in black rain

Ukrainian drones set fire to an oil refinery near central Moscow

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

"Despite larger-than-expected revenues from commodity exports due to the war on Iran, Russia’s public finances remain tight both federally and regionally. This is due to the untouchable priority of military spending and spiraling war costs." Check out the latest #BearMarketBrief.

bearmarketbrief.substack.com

No holds barred

The Russian government seeks to shore up its war economy

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Four districts of the Krasnodar Territory have been without a district head for at least six months. This could be a consequence of a wave of corruption cases, dissuading public officials from taking up local governance positions. Read more in the latest #BearMarketBrief.

No holds barred

The Russian government seeks to shore up its war economy

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

"The government framed the amendments as providing 'room to maneuver' in an unpredictable fiscal situation. In reality, they allow the government to increase war-related spending in hopes that this will precipitate a breakthrough in the war." More in the latest #BearMarketBrief.

bearmarketbrief.substack.com

No holds barred

The Russian government seeks to shore up its war economy

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) Close to 12 percent - the growth in the price of Kemerovo coking coal on the Chinese market in the first week of June. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Read about the Russian government exceeding its spending cap, ambassadors from Germany, France, and the UK meeting with the Russian foreign ministry, and a fuel crisis in Crimea in the latest #BearMarketBrief.

No holds barred

The Russian government seeks to shore up its war economy

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Read about the gloomy economic picture hanging over the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in the latest #BearMarketBrief.

bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Whither, Piter?

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum began on Wednesday

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 4 percent - the proportion of “foreign agents” designated by the Russian Ministry of Justice that actually receive foreign financing, highlighting how the definition of “foreign agent” was expanded over recent years. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 600,000 Lithuanians - the number of people affected by a recent data leak from the Lithuanian state-run Real Estate Register, resulting in personal information being stolen. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 2.9 billion rubles - the total amount of unpaid wages across Russia as of late April, a 35.2% increase compared to March. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 1.361 - Russia’s fertility rate in 2025. Following efforts to increase fertility rates, only 14 of 83 regions (and the occupied Sevastopol) were able to do so. More below👇️

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 1.361 - Russia’s fertility rate in 2025. Efforts to increase fertility rates include restricting access to abortion, increasing payments after birth, and obliging governors to increase fertility rates in their regions. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 209,000 - the number of small- and medium-sized businesses that closed in Russia from January to March 2026. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

In the latest #BearMarketBrief, Sara Ashbaugh and Andras Toth-Czifra write about the ongoing reshuffling of Russia's gubernatorial body, the 6 percent decline in coal output, and the largest two-day aerial attack on Ukraine since the war began. bearmarketbrief.substack.com/p/changing-o...

Changing of the guard

The Kremlin replaces two governors in regions bordering Ukraine

Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 53 percent - the proportion of those surveyed by the FOM (Public Opinion Foundation) who say the people around them are anxious. There has been a deterioration of the public mood and citizens’ trust. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 114 billion rubles - the amount of debt forgiven by the federal government for 21 regions on May 4. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Read the latest #BearMarketBrief to learn about an exchange of attacks leading up to Russia's Victory Day parade, tighter mobile restrictions employed over the weekend, and extended registration for the Russian primaries.

Hollow Victory Day

Moscow's Victory Day parade will feature no military equipment and few foreign dignitaries

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

🧵By the Numbers: Highlights from the latest #BearMarketBrief 1) 1 percent - the veteran employment quota that Tatarstan is introducing starting in September for companies with more than 200 employees to help with the reintegration of returning soldiers. More below👇️

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Catch up on the latest #BearMarketBrief before the next edition comes out. buff.ly/NpQZ5qc

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Bear Market Brief @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

"The EU adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting Russian oil revenue and 632 shadow fleet tankers. The Russian diplomatic mission to the EU called them economic coercion and a complete disregard for international law.” Check out the full #BearMarketBrief.

Smoke from damaged industrial facilities pollutes the air over Tuapse and Perm

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