iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Small professional update. Looking forward to the start of a new chapter in Owen Sound as the director of analytics and hockey research 🐻

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

RIP having fun at Bournemouth, 2023-2026.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

I would toss my very limited free time hat in the ring but I also exclusively work in R because academia and that can be annoying. However, if you want something simple that remains underexplored, may I suggest score effects in women’s hockey? I think something weird is maybe going on.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

This is 20 feet (give or take three inches either side). In an isolated penalty shot style, this distance results in a goal probably around 8-13% range (I’m speculating), while penalty shot success rate is typically 30ish? So 20 feet becomes interesting as a point value discussion.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Yep, small details that make a big difference. Since goalies are hyper fixated on stick angles and body positioning, it’s just quicker pattern recognition if the puck carrier commits to pass even a split second early.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

There’s probably some ratio of (pass speed + shot speed) to goalie time to position that has an impact on goal outcomes. Which means your options to increase value are increase the puck movement speed, or a find a way to slow the goalie down (I.e. deception before a pass).

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Slightly longer pass here, but Woll has to play it through a slide. It's this type of comparison which has me fixated on this type of question surrounding developmental needs in sport. And then also, tactically at professional/collegiate levels.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Here's an example of Elaine Chuli getting to this one timer entirely set, basically negating the value of the pass. Meanwhile if we compare a not so dissimilar play from a Capials - Leafs game...

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Definitely a trade off to some capacity here. On target % is ~72% from within 20 feet, and ~56% from beyond. Part of that I think is due to shooters trying to still pick a better spot from distance, because goalies get in position at better rates on one timers in women's vs men's..

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

I’ll take a peak at this tomorrow but the shooting percentage beyond is fairly low. Off the top of my head, most unscreened traditional “point shots” grade out at less than 0.01 xG, which is not ideal.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

This ends up being a small case study on one timers in women’s hockey, which is something I’ve probably spent too much time thinking about. If one timers are so good, why don’t they go in more?

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

While updating my USport womens hockey xG model this summer, I got fixated on one question If analytical models at higher levels of play tell us something isn’t very good when we feel it should be, do we need to focus more on it at younger levels, or abandon it? sites.google.com/view/bencsie...

sites.google.com

Ben Csiernik - How Analytical Models Can Inform Player Development

How analytical models can inform player development: A case study using WHIMS V2

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

I’ve spent a lot of time on this and zone independence is the approach I like most. This allows you to create more meaningful NZ outcomes that are related to future OZ states (a pass that allows a middle lane zone entry on a rush). The speed of situation change is just so much faster than soccer..

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

I think about (and cite) this blog (well, the original manuscript) and work a lot. dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/... The balance between best prediction possible vs understandable and usable prediction feels under explored in some circles, though everyone says they’re thinking about it.

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

How Do We Know a Metric Is Good? A Case Study on VAEP

In sports analytics, the primary goal is to develop indicators that quantify the skills, capabilities, and tendencies of athletes and…

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

You’re probably right, but I look forward to the idea of Viggo stepping directly into the NHL next year and causing havoc from day 1 regardless.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

Do we think Viggo gets past Seattle at 7? The people yearn for a short king center after Stankoven’s playoff run.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Love this. I still think the glaringly “obvious” stat we’re missing is clean shot save percentage. That is, all non-tipped and non-screened shot attempts (including posts and near misses as the eye test for on target is iffy). Basically goalie version of swing and miss in baseball.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Enormous week for me personally. Got to present at my first conference outside of North America on how advanced analysis tools in hockey can inform practice design and measure learning, AND Nik Ehlers is Stanley Cup champion.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Jordan Staal, well established hall of fame level finishing?

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Reposted by Ben Csiernik

Rhys Jessop @rhysjessop.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

I remember writing this all the way back in 2012. Incredible.

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Reposted by Ben Csiernik

Micah McCurdy @hockeyviz.com · 15/06/2026

A great day for analytics, and therefore the world.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Rightfully, Ehlers. Couldn’t be better.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social work is always so thoughtful and well explained. I am constantly amazed at the level of knowledge we have in the world of hockey that’s at the hands of passionate people working on things they care about. It’s really cool.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Real time depiction of this past season looking at rush chances on Bluesky.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

For whatever it’s worth, there’s virtually no difference in my modeling work for in zone shots vs non advantaged rushes. Advantaged rushes are the driver, which intuitively makes sense, since a breakaway is probably more valuable than a 1 on 3. Also, excellent sleuthing on this work!

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

I don’t disagree, she’s fantastic. The big question will be the price point for an expansion team taking her with an EFO though, which I’m sure is a consideration for Ottawa right now. Lots to weigh.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

As always with smaller forwards, imagine the discussion around him if he were 6’1. I’m with you on the Benson comp, someone’s going to look like a genius when they get him in the 10-14 range.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

I think there’s a related effect with point shot numbers down, tip values down, which all lead towards teams having more deliberate in zone approaches. A little less spray generally. I do think rush value is much less impacted with increased data granularity though, public data issue maybe.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Women’s hockey in Hamilton rocks so much. Despite my hometown biases, Hamilton (and the surrounding communities) have been such a hub for girls and women’s hockey for so long.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Agreed on all accounts. I tend to think that players capable of playing lower minute roles w/ more defensive starts, pk expectations etc. need to showcase those abilities in college for them to realistically be successful making the transition to professional hockey.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Really exciting time for Detroit hockey, and women’s hockey in the state of Michigan. Too much good girls and women’s hockey from the state to not have more representation and here we go.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Yeah, also how I feel. There’s essentially no academic work on it (though many opinions), so I do feel your work is one of the best things we can look to. Turns out things are complicated.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Micah, I know all your work is standardized, but how much of the big jumps that you see in years 1/2 to years beyond for young players do you think is attributed to opportunity, rather than player “development”?

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

An Nguyen makes my PhD feasible and will undoubtedly get the appropriate credit throughout the document as she deserves.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

Also historically true of European goalies, where we have a bit of this too. We could count Freddie being drafted twice to really throw a wrench in this. Like all drafting, there’s a lot of complex moving pieces at play.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

Isn’t this also reflected by the fact a vast majority of goalies are taken in the third round or beyond?

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

This is the same phenomenon in hockey around turnovers. People said that goals happen more within 5 seconds of a turnover and some people interpreted that as if you create a turnover, you have to take the puck immediately to the net. Who knew context and nuance may matter.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Agreed. The idea of her playing with Wynn at the professional level (which means you also have Keller) is laugh out loud funny.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Oh I genuinely believe that Seattle’s -23 goal differential becomes a lot more like -6 to -10 with her on the first pair. Adding one of, if not the best player, in the world on a team with some skilled shooters and solid goaltending would do wonders.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Barring some weird things where they find themselves being eliminated with 3 games left and going 0-3 to end it. That feels like the ultimate worst case scenario of this season, somehow ending up drafting second or third. (Second or third will still be selecting wonderful hockey players)

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

No I think you’re right and largely do agree. I guess their “not eliminated” points situation stems from 5 teams having a negative goal differential. Big gap from the top 3 to the bottom 5

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

Altogether, I’m genuinely really surprised to see these results. Score effects are such a well known phenomenon in professional men’s hockey, I assumed they’d have stability. Ultimately maybe there’s something else going on here, always more to think about and examine.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

Teams down 1 is where there’s something interesting happening. This is where we maybe start to see that the leading team is sitting back rather than the trailing team necessarily pushing. Again, I suspect this is influenced by penalty timing (more on this another time).

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

When teams are down 2, we don’t see the gap in offence that we see at the NHL level. In fact, teams down 2 in the second period are largely content to remain down 2 in the second period. They do get a little bit of life in the third, but I suspect some of this is penalty timing and the empty net

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

I don’t have the luxury of having data that has access to the 60 minute game clock, so I have to approximate using bins of percentage time. For now, I’ve split each period into six bins, each roughly equal to 33% of the game event data that I do have. Overall we see second periods are busier.

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Ben Csiernik @bcsiernik.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

Re-reading a @hockeyviz.com article on adjusted possession metrics from 2014 (!!) and more recent work, and running into something I think is interesting. Score effects may behave differently across levels of sport. Some preliminary work from Canadian women’s college hockey…

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