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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

Now that the deadline has passed and the dust has settled, it's time to look back and evaluate the model's performance. The results? Pretty good, with a slight improvement over last summer. @johnbitzer.bsky.social goes further in depth: www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/202...

baseballtradevalues.com

Baseball Trade Values: 2025 Trade Deadline Analysis: How Did Our Model Do?

How did our model do at the 2025 deadline?   Starting with the Josh Naylor trade, here’s the scorecard:   Number of trades:...

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

And that's a wrap! We'll have our usual post-deadline coverage and analysis in the coming days, but for now, we're taking a short break to catch our breath. That was a lot of fun! As always, thank you for all of your continued support!

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

Today the #Brewers reportedly acquired RHP Shelby Miller ($0.4M surplus trade value), LHP Jordan Montgomery (-$7.5M) and cash ($5.5M) from the #DBacks in exchange for a PTBNL or cash. The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending the PTBNL.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

SS Jorge Quintana ($3.4M) also goes to the Padres in this deal. That makes it a moderate underpay by San Diego.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Tigers reportedly acquired RHP Charlie Morton (-$3.2M surplus trade value) from the #Orioles in exchange for LHP Micah Ashman (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Detroit, pending Ashman's addition.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Royals acquired OF Mike Yastrzemski ($0.5M surplus trade value) from the #SFGiants in exchange for RHP Yunior Marte ($1.2M). The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Astros reportedly acquired SS Carlos Correa (-$35.1M surplus trade value) and cash (reportedly $33M) from the #MNTwins in exchange for LHP Matt Mikulski (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model as a minor overpay by HOU, pending Mikulski's.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Phillies acquired RHP Matt Manning ($0.1M surplus trade value) from the #Tigers in exchange for OF Josueth Quinonez (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending Quinonez's addition.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #RedSox reportedly acquired RHP Dustin May ($2.3M surplus trade value) from the #Dodgers in exchange for OFs James Tibbs ($9.1M) and Zach Ehrhard ($2.5M). The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by Boston.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

RHPs Ben Peoples ($1.6M) and Duncan Davitt (not yet in system) also go to the White Sox in this deal. Still accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Rays reportedly acquired RHP Adrian Houser ($4.5M surplus trade value) from the #WhiteSox    in exchange for 1B Curtis Mead ($3.3M). The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Yankees acquired RHP Camilo Doval ($3.5M trade value) from the #SFGiants in exchange for C Jesus Rodriguez ($1.8M), RHP Trystan Vrieling ($1.4M), LHP Carlos De La Rosa ($0.2M) and IF Parks Harber (not in system) Deal tentatively accepted by our model, pending Harber

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Rays reportedly acquired RHP Griffin Jax ($25.7M surplus trade value) from the #MNTwins in exchange for RHP Taj Bradley ($30.2M). The deal is accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Tampa Bay.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #BlueJays reportedly acquired RHP Louis Varland ($13.4M surplus trade value) and 1B Ty France ($1.3M) from the #MNTwins in exchange for OF Alan Rosen ($10.3M) and LHP Kendry Rojas ($5.2M). The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Rangers reportedly acquired RHP Phil Maton ($2.0M surplus trade value) from the #STLCards in exchange for RHP Skylar Hales ($1.6M), LHP Mason Molina (not yet in system) and international bonus pool money. The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending Molina

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Rangers reportedly acquired RHP Merrill Kelly ($4.8M surplus trade value) from the #DBacks in exchange for LHPs Kohl Drake ($7.8M) and Mitch Bratt ($2.9M) and RHP Dave Hagaman ($2.8M) ($13.5M total) The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by Texas.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Padres reportedly acquired LHP Nestor Cortes ($2.3M surplus trade value) from the #Brewers in exchange for OF Brandon Lockridge ($0.4M). The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Yankees reportedly acquired UT Jose Caballero ($6.8M surplus trade value) from the #Rays in exchange for OF Everson Pereira ($0.0M) and a PTBNL. The deal is accepted by our model as a major underpay by NYY.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Royals reportedly acquired LHP Bailey Falter ($3.6M surplus trade value) from the #Pirates in exchange for LHP Evan Sisk ($0.6M) and 1B Callan Moss (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model as a minor underpay by KC, pending Moss's addition.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Cubs reportedly acquired UT Willi Castro ($3.1M surplus trade value) from the #MNTwins in exchange for RHPs Sam Armstrong ($1.0M) and Ryan Gallagher ($1.0M) ($2.0M total). The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

...and IFs Cobb Hightower ($2.2M), Victor Figueroa ($0.3M) and Brandon Butterworth (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model as a minor underpay by San Diego, pending Butterworth and Smith's additions.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Padres reportedly acquired OF Ramon Laureano ($6.6M surplus trade value) and 1B Ryan O'Hearn ($4.1M) ($10.7M total) from the #Orioles in exchange for LHP Boston Bateman ($2.3M), RHPs Tyson Neighbors ($2.3M) and Tanner Smith (not yet in system) Cont'd...

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Angels reportedly acquired IF Oswald Peraza ($0.0M surplus trade value) from the #Yankees in exchange for OF Wilberson De Pena (not yet in system) and international bonus pool money. The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending De Pena's addition.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Dodgers reportedly acquired OF Alex Call ($3.4M surplus trade value) from the #Nationals in exchange for RHPs Sean Paul Liñan ($2.3M) and Eriq Swan ($1.7M) ($4.0M total). The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Rangers acquired LHP Danny Coulombe ($0.9M surplus trade value) from the #MNTwins in exchange for LHP Garrett Horn ($1.0M). The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Padres acquired UT Will Wagner ($5.7M surplus trade value) from the #BlueJays in exchange for C Brandon Valenzuela ($1.2M). The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by San Diego.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Astros reportedly acquired OF Jesus Sanchez ($12.6M surplus trade value) from the Marlins in exchange for RHP Ryan Gusto ($6.3M), SS Chase Jaworsky ($1.4M) and OF Esmil Valencia ($0.9M) ($8.6M total). The deal is accepted by our model as a major underpay by Houston.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Dodgers reportedly acquired RHP Brock Stewart ($6.0M surplus trade value) from the #MNTwins in exchange for OF James Outman ($1.3M). The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by Los Angeles.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

It's based on percentage of total value and scales with the size of the trade. This one was right on the borderline - removing Sanchez at $1.1 makes it accepted as a major overpay.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Yankees reportedly acquired RHP Jake Bird ($6.5M surplus trade value) from the #Rockies    in exchange for 2B Roc Riggio ($1.7M) and LHP Ben Shields ($0.4M) ($2.1M total). The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by New York.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Mets reportedly acquired OF Cedric Mullins ($3.3M surplus trade value) from the #Orioles in exchange for RHPs Anthony Nunez ($2.8M), Raimon Gomez ($1.6M) and Chandler Marsh (not yet in system) ($4.4M total). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending Marsh

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Update: RHP Stephen Kolek ($4.7M) is reportedly headed to the Royals in this deal as well. That makes this deal into a minor overpay for the Padres.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Catcher is a deep position for the Yankees' org, so this package doesn't hurt them quite as much as the values might suggest. Relief prices have also been high across the board, and New York may have lost the game of musical chairs with many other top arms already off the board.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Yankees reportedly acquired RHP David Bednar ($7.4M surplus trade value) from the #Pirates in exchange for Cs Rafael Flores ($7.3M) and Edgleen Perez ($4.3M) and OF Brian Sanchez ($1.1M) ($12.7M total). The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by New York.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Padres reportedly acquired C Freddy Fermin ($5.4M surplus trade value) from the #Royals in exchange for RHP Ryan Bergert ($3.3M). The deal is accepted by our model as a minor underpay by San Diego.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Tigers acquired RHP Codi Heuer ($0.0M surplus trade value) from the #Rangers in exchange for cash considerations. The deal is accepted by our model.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Phillies reportedly acquired OF Harrison Bader ($3.1M surplus trade value) from the #MNTwins in exchange for OF Hendry Mendez ($3.1M) and RHP Geremy Villoria (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending Villoria's addition.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Tigers reportedly acquired RHP Kyle Finnegan ($0.6M surplus trade value) from the #Nationals in exchange for RHPs Josh Randall ($2.1M) and R.J. Sales (not yet in system). The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending Sales' addition.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

This is a massive price to pay for a reliever, even one as dominant as Miller. The Padres may look to stretch Miller out as a starter in the future. Preller fired his biggest bullet in De Vries, and the inclusion of Sears gives him more flexibility to trade Cease and Suarez.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Padres acquired RHP Mason Miller ($30.4M surplus trade value) and LHP JP Sears ($12.4M) from the #Athletics    in exchange for SS Leo De Vries ($50.5M) and RHPs Braden Nett ($2.8), Eduarniel Nuñez ($2.0M), and Henry Báez ($1.4M) ($56.7M total) Deal is accepted as a moderate overpay

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Stephen has a ton of helium and has been one of this season's biggest pop-up prospects. That seems like a very high price to pay for Bieber, even considering the latter's obvious upside.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Bieber is a very risky acquisition. His $16M player option for 2026 is all downside - if he pitches well down the stretch, he declines it, making him a rental; if he pitches poorly or reinjures himself, he accepts it, and Toronto is on the hook for that $16M.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #BlueJays acquired RHP Shane Bieber (-$2.1M surplus trade value) from the #Guardians in exchange for RHP Khal Stephen ($9.8M). The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by Toronto.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Kittredge has been effective at times, but he's been pretty close to replacement level (by fWAR) each of the last three years. He's owed $4M down the stretch, including the buyout on his 2026 option.

Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Cubs acquired RHP Andrew Kittredge (-$3.1M surplus trade value) from the #Orioles in exchange for SS Wilfrid De La Cruz ($1.9M). The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate overpay by Chicago.

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Baseball Trade Values @baseballvalues.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Today the #Tigers acquired RHP Paul Sewald (-$1.5M surplus trade value) from the #Guardians in exchange for a PTBNL or cash. The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending the possible PTBNL.