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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes)

@badbaltictakes.bsky.social
1.8K followers 8 following 257 posts

“Baltic Takes skewers the lazy prejudices of the foreign commentariat and serves them up sizzling.” - Edward Lucas

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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 7h
Countries usually like to keep quiet about espionage cases. Sometimes that helps gather more counter-intelligence without revealing methods. Often though, it can just be about saving face and keeping relations uncomplicated. Those days are over: www.baltictakes.com/estonia-just...
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 22h
You are kind. Will keep doing it then!
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
I think this is the most recent interview he has done and hopefully shouldn’t be behind a paywall for you. www.ft.com/content/75f7...
ft.com
Transcript: Francis Fukuyama on democracy, AI and his own intellectual journey
Gideon Rachman talks to political scientist and author Francis Fukuyama
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
Absolutely agree. I think a slightly bland name actually helps with edgier content because you don’t have to waste time explaining what the project is about and just focus on more of those stronger takes.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
Yeah, I liked that name but a lot of people found it confusing. And if the project is more clearly named then I think more people actually get to read the content, which is what really matters. The style stays the same!
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
Also made a request to the Latvians to serve us all the flavours of Kārums they’ve been hiding from us. They did not disappoint. In return, Estonians in attendance pledged to raise hell if anyone ever messed with what makes Kārums so delicious and so Latvian. #notasponsoredpost
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
Today’s latest article is a deep dive into why Friedman’s golden arches theory proved so spectacularly wrong: www.baltictakes.com/golden-arche...
baltictakes.com
‘Golden arches theory’ was meant to predict peace. It encouraged war
The West thought economic integration restrained aggression, while Russia thought it restrained any response to its aggression. Only the willingness to defend rules actually matters.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
Genius. That’s saved a couple of million euros on branding consultants. So the hub for this project is now baltictakes.com. If you’re a fan of a rules-based world of sovereign nations, sign up there or get in touch at editor@baltictakes.com.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
Badbaltictakes is now simply Baltic Takes. Been spending time in Latvia, talking to wonderful followers about how we better amplify Baltic perspectives, not just play whack-a-mole with bad takes thirsty for attention. “So why didn’t you just shorten the name to Baltic Takes?” they pointed out.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 29/09/2026
Estonia’s Internal Security Service (KAPO) has officially attributed an arson attack against a defence company to Russia. “Estonia remains a safe and secure country, and we are committed to doing everything necessary to keep it that way.”
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
The only real deterrence is to always stand firm on your values and be prepared to defend them no matter what.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
Russia escalates its aggression where it senses weakness. The connections and friendship you try to build with it - like “Russia is not my enemy”, blah blah - can make you a bigger target for that aggression.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
The lack of a stronger international response to each escalation of Russian aggression, such as after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, and all that nonsense about resetting the relationship just reinforced its perception that it could keep escalating more.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
That’s clear from listening to strategic thinking and commentary on the Russian side from the 90s. They also saw “McDonalds countries” as Friedman called them, even if they didn’t call them that, but they just interpreted that relationship as weakness that could be exploited.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
Western and Russian thinking around Golden Arches theory had each taken the exact opposite lessons. The West thought economic integration restrained aggression, while Russia thought economic integration restrained any response to its aggression.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
Nevertheless, the theory continued to take hold, especially in thinking around Russia and the West - and from both sides. Ok, now here’s the really important bit that got missed..
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
Friedman’s book on Golden Arches theory was released with darkly comic timing, just after ethnic violence in McDonalds-loving Yugoslavia prompted a military invention by McDonalds-loving NATO countries.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
It’s basically a rebranded version of arguments in the 1910s that proved so disastrously wrong before the First World War. The theory looked prophetic in the 90s only because McDonalds was slowly expanding into countries already stable. The real cause and effect was inverse to the theory.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
More broadly, he argued countries that are economically integrated and codependent won’t go to war, hence the world needs more “McDonalds countries”.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 27/09/2026
‘Golden arches theory’ is still not aging well, as this McDonalds warehouse burns in Ukraine after a Russian attack. Let’s talk about this. Thomas Friedman came up with the Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention in the 90s, arguing that countries with McDonalds don’t fight each other. 🧵..
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
And ICYMI, here’s a deeper dive into Narva although one correction from the post below. Baltic intelligence assessments did not assess a low but growing threat of a direct attack on NATO and the CIA is now in line with that, as reported above.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
And some more key context from last night:
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
“Russia is not winning in Ukraine the way it planned. Instead of stopping the war and negotiating peace, Putin has chosen more aggression and intimidation. He is looking for other ways to put pressure on us, but he is not succeeding.” 💯 🎯
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
“We must call things what they are: Russia is carrying out acts of terrorism,” says Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas. “And it will not change because Russia is desperate.”
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
Raivis Melnis, Latvia’s defence minister, concurred. “Latvia and Nato currently face no direct military threat,” he said. “The overall threat situation has not changed significantly in recent weeks … There is no reason to create unnecessary fear.”
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
“This very much reflects the Russian framing of the Baltics, and is also incorrect. If you look at the track record, the Baltics have been not just very resilient to all manner of Russian meddling but also the most proactive in taking real actions to address the threat.”
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
“What is unhelpful is the assumption that Baltics are Russia’s primary, almost a natural target, that they are small, not very capable countries, easily crushed by even the smallest of disruptions,” said Liis Mure at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) think tank in Tallinn.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
Marko Mihkelson, Chairman of the Estonian Foreign Affairs Committee, points out that the root problem is the reluctance of some European countries to “articulate a clear strategic objective to help Ukraine achieve victory and push back Russian aggression”.  Some other key quotes:
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
There is consensus that Russia is stepping up “sub-military activities” across Europe in a misguided attempt to weaken support for Ukraine, but they “see no reason whatsoever to believe that Putin is preparing any kind of ground attack on the Baltic states nor any other part of Nato”.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
Great journalism here in the Times from Oliver Moody, Larisa Brown, and Marc Bennetts listened to a wide range of European security officials and defence ministers. A quick summary.🧵 www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
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Reposted by Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes)
heepst @heepst.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
You've verbalized what bugs me about the debate. People assume that Estonians and Balts haven't been paying attention to the Russian threat or what tactics Russia has employed in Ukraine. They also assume that there are active separatist movements in the region. None of these assumptions are true.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
It much prefers trying to create panic. This whole episode, hosted with 26-year CIA veteran Marc Polymeropoulos, is really informative. A nice antidote to much of the coverage elsewhere this week. They also discuss why “hybrid warfare” is a terrible term, and why a strong response shouldn’t wait.
thebulwark.com
Inside the Strange CIA Briefing That Sent Europe Into a Panic
Marc Polymeropoulos and Michael Weiss examine the growing Russian threat in Europe, separating the real danger of Russian sabotage and state terrorism from the media panic over a potential Russian inv...
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
They all see Russia seeking ways to escalate its campaign of sabotage and so-called hybrid attacks across Europe, although not a direct military attack on NATO. Russia does not want to trigger a strong response.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 26/09/2026
The CIA revised down its assessment of Russia’s threat to NATO, reports Michaeld Weiss on The Bulwark. Despite a lot of “clickbait bullshit” this week, the CIA is aligned with European intelligence agencies, including in the Baltics.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
Yes. Even though we can argue about whether all countries would respond firmly enough, it would still trigger the huge kind of European response that Russia really wants to avoid.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
Frankly, to all our fellow Europeans and to all fans of a rules-based world of sovereign nations, stop pitying Narva and start learning from them. And remember the best defence is to stand firm on our values and support Ukraine. Full story: www.badbaltic.com/listen-to-th...
badbaltic.com
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
And that whole-of-society approach to defence goes much deeper, including through education on media literacy, for example, or how to spot attempts at grooming assets, and involving all civic society in crises exercises.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
People who live in Narva are not background actors waiting to take their cue in Russian narratives. It is an Estonian town, home to people trained and proud to defend their country, Estonia, against any adversary and every day prove themselves capable of disrupting those who would harm their town.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
Narva is actually a great example of that resilience, exemplifying the whole-of-society approach to defence across Estonia and the Baltics and especially in Finland.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
Despite what many “Russia experts” will tell you, Russia’s calculations about whether and how to escalate are not predetermined. They are constantly calculating the strength of our resilience.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
TL;DR: We spend a lot of time arguing about what Putin will do next. But the future of our nations can never be dependent on the whims of one adversary. What really matters is ensuring our countries are secured against any adversary who would seek to harm us.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
I was writing about that yesterday when the Danish report came through so decided to put it all together in this one article.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
The analysis was based on a number of flawed assumptions about local dynamics, which hugely overstate Russian capabilities, including inside the town of Narva itself, and hugely understate Estonian capabilities in their own country.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
Also, the Institute for the Study of War recently released a plausible-sounding analysis about how a Russian incursion into Estonia at Narva might unfold. Not too plausible to a lot of people who live there though, especially those in the Estonian Defence League.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
The clue is that would pretty obviously trigger a strong, united European response - exactly what Russia wants to avoid - so that threat only works for Russia as a story about what Putin might do.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
A couple of things have confused the public perception of all this. Firstly, El Mundo released a story just before about CIA warnings of military drone strikes across Spain, France, and Italy. Macron made clear later that wasn’t true.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
Russia will escalate wherever it senses weakness. The really crucial bit in the intelligence is that Russia still wants to keep everything below the threshold of triggering a military response. And the purpose is to deter us from supporting Ukraine.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
That Danish intelligence report is broadly in line with what the Baltics are saying. The threat assessment is unchanged here. Leipzig shows how all of Europe is threatened by Russia - and all of Europe could actually learn more from the Baltics. Full story: www.badbaltic.com/listen-to-th...
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 24/09/2026
When you’re so anti-imperialist that you think only Westerners have agency. Greetings from the Baltic countries, by the way. Do us next. In that same period, the Baltics achieved some of the highest levels of human freedoms and fastest growth in the world.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 23/09/2026
And now the Baltic Freedom Caucus is more relevant and more active than ever. It started 2020 with 13 senators so it’s almost tripled in six years. Thats a huge show of support for continued Baltic freedom and the values on which that is based, which of course includes the freedom of Ukraine too.
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