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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Thanks. Not sure we can fit Goblin Valley in, but I'm looking forward to Kodachrome Basin.

Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

My final #COVID19 update for a couple of months (due to a vacation.) - COVID levels still rising. - COVID worse in the South & West than the Northeast & Midwest. - This surge is still lower than past surges. - I've included tips for how to check risks in your area. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

COVID’s Summer Surge Continues: My Last Weekly Update (August 28, 2026) for a While

The summer surge continues and shows signs it will extend well into September. COVID is high in some spots, and it’s certainly worth…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

I will add this, which is a guesstimate: Back in 2024, I thought people were being infected, on average, every 18 to 24 months. Given the reduction of COVID in US wastewater, that might be once every eight years, which is comparable to the flu. Low vax rates threaten this, but it's still good news.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

A COVID reinfection can still leave you with chronic health issues. But if COVID infection risks are 50 to 80% lower than they were in the past four years, that is a significant reduction in those risks. I still take care, but I adjust to the risks. You do you—just be accurately informed! 5/5

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

In general, the risk of being infected this past winter was almost half as much as the prior summer. It was less than half as much as from winter 2024/25. It was 75% lower than Summer 2024. And it was more than 80% lower than the riskiest period—winter 2024/25. 4/5

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

I broke the year into Winter (Nov to Apr) and Summer (May to Oct) to align with how #COVID19 surges. This summer isn't complete, but if we compare the risks of infection last winter, they were the lowest since summer 2021 (when almost everyone was recently vaccinated and many still took care.) 3/5

An area-under-the-curve analysis of COVID risks since 2020. It demonstrates that average daily COVID level in US wastewater has dropped considerably in recent years:

Winter 2023/24: 471 PMMoV
Summer 2024: 330 PMMoV
Winter 2024/25: 193 PMMoV
Summer 2025: 153 PMMoV
Winter 2025/26: 81 PMMoV
To-date summer 2026: 30 PMMoV

While different variants can affect shedding (and thus impact PMMoV measures), this generally suggests a significant decline in the number of people infected and the risk of infection.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

First, in full disclosure, different variants can cause unique levels of shedding, so this isn't 100% accurate, but it is mostly dependable. I conducted an “area under the curve” analysis, which is a way of understanding COVID risks throughout a period (and not simply looking at peak levels.) 2/5

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

I often speak about how much both the surges and the lulls of #COVID19 have fallen. I remain concerned and cautious about infections given the science of COVID's potential chronic impact on health and wellbeing. But lower risks are worth celebrating, IMO. How much have they fallen? An analysis: 1/5

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

New weekly update published. Our summer surge continues and is expected to do so another 3 or 4 weeks. We're still lower than past surges, however. This update also discussed this week's changes to the CDC's NWSS and the future federal funding of wastewater monitoring. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

US Summer COVID Surge Continues, But Data is Getting Weird and Harder to Get: Update for August 21…

First things first: COVID is still surging and is (for now) remaining lower than past surges. The South, the Bay Area, Alaska, and Hawaii…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

So, the same guy who's been ranting non-stop about communism is now canceling military exercises with South Korea because of his "very good relationship with..." communist leader Kim Jong Un. Is there nothing Republicans won't believe so long as Trump says it? newrepublic.com/post/214399/...

newrepublic.com

Trump Hands North Korea’s Kim Jong Un a Massive Gift

Donald Trump appears to think North Korea’s dictator is his friend.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

If you're in Anchorage, I'd definitely start being cautious about viral risks. For some reason, #COVID19 in Anchorage wastewater has exploded to near-record levels in the past week. Unsure why this is happening, but it's concerning. It is 12x higher than any other US sewershed at present.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

It seems the pace of COVID evolution may be slowing, and prior infections and vaccinations are keeping more safe. BUT low vax rates and people ignoring all mitigations, even in surges, invite the risks of higher surges. And, the chronic risk of Long COVID and other issues from reinfections remains.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

COVID is rising in the US, but the overall trends are positive. Up until January 2024, each winter and summer COVID surge and lull was generally growing. Since then, the trend has been very consistent through five winter and summer surges, each lower than the next. Will the trend continue? 1/2

Chart of COVID levels in US wastewater from WastewaterSCAN data. It shows two trends during the pandemic. Up until January 2024, each winter and summer COVID surge was growing, and the lulls in between surges also were typically rising, as well. Since January 2024, however, the trend has been very consistent through five winter and summer surges, each lower than the next (declining from over 1,000 PMMoV in January 2024, to over 600 in summer 2024, almost 400 in January 2025, less than 200 in January 2026, and around 100 today—although still rising in this surge.) Likewise, lulls have also declined, from over 100 PMMoV in Spring 2024 to under 15 PMMoV this past spring.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

New weekly update of #COVID19 in the US has been published. Pretty much the same story it's been for weeks—still surging, but still significantly lower than past surges. But, there are hotspots in the US. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

COVID’s Moderate Summer Surge Continues in the US: Update for August 14, 2026

Both the positive rate of COVID testing and COVID in wastewater continue to rise, but as mentioned in past updates, the levels are much…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

My weekly update on #COVID19 levels and risks in the US. COVID continues to rise (both positive rate and COVID levels in wastewater). Viral activity is highest in the South, along with Alaska and Hawaii. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

COVID’s Modest US Surge Continues, with Higher Levels in the South: Update for August 7, 2026

Data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) and WastewaterSCAN indicate our still-modest COVID surge continues. Infection…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Trump's an ineffective troll who rages behind his Truth Social account while the rest of the world ignores and laughs at him—and us. We either endorse this aberrant and harmful situation or we fight by voting in November. What will you do? #VoteBlue www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

washingtonpost.com

Trump keeps making threats. The world has stopped flinching.

The president’s bombast has ceased to rattle world leaders, who have seen him fenced in by courts, rebuffed by Congress and strung along by Iran.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

I want to stress that this surge is still relatively modest in most of the US, as we can see from this chart of six months worth of data. We're still a long way from the levels seen in last winter's surge (and that surge was the smallest we'd had in years.) 2/2

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

#COVID19 is still low in most of the US, but this is not the case in certain spots in Alaska, Florida, and Georgia, where around 1 in 100 is infectious. There are other spots with modest rises in COVID, such as in AL, LA, OH, and TX. It's smart to take care in parts of the US now. But… 1/2

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

My new weekly update on #COVID19 risks in the US: - This summer's surge remains quite modest. We may have just this week surpassed the lowest level the US experienced in the prior four years. - Risks are varied. Hotspots are in AK, FL, HI, LA, and OH. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

COVID’s Modest Summer Surge Continues, with Varied Risks: Update for July 31, 2026

COVID is rising in the US, but at a fairly consistent and modest pace. Thus far, this surge is well below past surges, although the risks…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

RIP Kavinsky. Two of my favorite DJs/electronic music artists have recently passed. Starcadian/Georgios Smaragdis was killed in an e-bike accident last year, and Kavinsky/Vincent ‌Belorgey was recently found dead at his home of a presumed stroke (at 50!). www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV_3...

youtube.com

Kavinsky - Nightcall (Drive Original Movie Soundtrack) (Official Audio)

YouTube video by Record Makers

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Healthcare workers: “We care for people.” Me: “Then you'll wear a mask?” HCW: “We don't care that much.” STUDY: “Hospital-acquired COVID-19 infections remain significant (and) associated with higher mortality rates than non-hospital-acquired infection.” www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

Epidemiology and mortality among hospital-acquired cases of COVID-19 in the pre-Omicron and Omicron periods: A data-linkage study in Victoria, Australia

The aim of this study was to compare the epidemiology and mortality of hospital-acquired versus non-hospital-acquired COVID-19 infections among hospit…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

- Levels remain low compared to the past four years, but risks differ in different spots. - The positive rate of testing is level or rising only modestly right now, suggesting this surge will remain modest. 2/2

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

My weekly update on #COVID19 in the US: - The CDC NWSS's data is more complete but harder to interpret. It indicates COVID is rising in the West and Northeast. - WastwaterSCAN's data is less complete but more specific. It suggests the South is increasing. 1/2 medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

COVID Low but Rising in the US, Particularly in South and West: Update for July 24, 2026

The latest data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) and WastewaterSCAN are not completely aligned. However, the new…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Among the causes is “declining trust in medical professionals among right-leaning individuals, including lower willingness to seek care, follow clinical advice or believe in medication effectiveness, even for issues unrelated to COVID-19.” FAFO! 2/2

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Conservatives ignoring science and putting their health at risk is nothing new. A new study found that, in the 2010s, “conservative Americans experienced worsening health and higher mortality than liberals.” 1/2 www.fastcompany.com/91561329/wid...

fastcompany.com

Conservatives are dying at higher rates than liberals. A new study points to mistrust in medicine

The health divide emerged over the last decade and has widened since 2020, according to research that links ideology to outcomes from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and other internal causes.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

We are in a (so far) small summer surge in the US. #COVID19 in wastewater has roughly tripled, but to put this into perspective, here is the chart of US sewersheds over the past 12 months. Our surge remains so mild you can barely see it relative to levels this past year.

Chart of the level of COVID in around 196 sewersheds over the past year. The chart shows many sewersheds over 500 PMMoV last September and many over 1,000 PMMoV this past winter. At present, a handful are over 100 PMMoV and none exceed 250 PMMoV.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Well, to be clear, there are ALWAYS mutations. We just haven't had a significant one that contributed to a surge or change in illness severity in years. BA.3.2v seems to have caused some small surges, particularly in kids, but nothing sustained like the early omicron waves.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

I think it's likely a combination of immunity built up from prior infections and vaccinations, combined with the fact we haven't seen a major mutation in covid in years. Seems to be running out of evolutionary space, if we are lucky.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

New weekly update on #COVID19 in the US: COVID is rising but remains low in aggergate. Risks are quite diverse. The NWSS indicates COVID viral activity is Moderate in TX, while 5 of the 7 sewersheds with the highest levels in WastewaterSCAN's dashboard are in FL. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

COVID Rising in Portions of the US but Remains Very Low in Most of the Nation: Update for July 17…

The latest National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) data hints that COVID is rising in portions of the West, while data from…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Air quality is no better today in the Midwest. Air is unhealthy in New York, very unhealthy in Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington, and hazardous in Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, and Milwaukee. Be careful!

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Proposal: Rather than test the military for low testosterone, we test for low IQ. That way, we can get a new Secretary of Defense.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Donald Trump is manipulating the stock market with his posts, and now he's selling early access to his posts so both he and Wall Street can profit from his manipulation. Meanwhile, he thinks your affordability crisis is a hoax. #VoteBlue www.cnn.com/2026/07/16/b....

cnn.com

Truth Social will sell Wall Street quicker access to posts | CNN Business

Truth Social will sell Wall Street firms quicker access to market-moving posts from President Donald Trump, the company said on Thursday.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Well, at least in summer it typically is. In winter it tends to be the Midwest and Northeast.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

The WastewaterSCAN #COVID19 dashboard is bouncing around this week. Most of the sewersheds with elevated levels of COVID (4 of the top 6 at present) are in Florida. If we eliminated FL, we might not be having much of a surge at all. (I mean, it's not much of a surge anyway thus far.) FL chart:

Wastewater data of COVID levels in Florida over three months. The average stayed below a very low 20 PMMoV until May 26. Then it rose to 57 PMMoV in the three or four weeks following. Since then, COVID has risen abruptly to 142 PMMoC on July 6 and 327 PMMoV on July 7 (although very recent data is preliminary and subject to change.)

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

STUDY: "Grandparents had 9.9% higher hazard of #COVID19 infection during birthday risk windows. The risk was greater for birthdays of preschool-aged grandchildren (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15) than during birthdays of school-aged grandchildren (AHR, 1.07)." jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

jamanetwork.com

Children’s Birthday Gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Grandparents

This cohort study uses Danish registry data to examine the association of grandchild birthdays, as a proxy for opportunity for social gathering, with SARS-CoV-2 infection in grandparents.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

“I will choose to remember the time before Trump. Because I believe in an America after Trump.” - Hunter Biden

@HunterBiden tweet:
When I heard about Senator Graham’s death last night, the first thing I thought about was not all the things he said and did in service of Donald Trump. I thought of the time before Donald Trump when he was a brother to Senator John McCain.

A time when senators from different parties could fight about politics and still be friends. A time when a conservative Republican from South Carolina could say of my father: “If you can’t admire Joe Biden as a person, you’ve got a problem. He’s the nicest person I’ve ever met in politics. As good a man as God ever created.”

That is the Senator Graham I will remember today. Not because I have forgotten what came after. Because in that memory there is hope. Hope for a country where brothers can fight like hell over policy and still share a meal, and a laugh, and the loss of the people they love.

I will choose to remember the time before Trump. Because I believe in an America after Trump.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

STUDY of patients with a #COVID19 diagnosis between June 1 and November 30, 2022, finds that total healthcare costs during 11 months of post-acute follow-up were 27% higher among adults and 42% higher among pediatric patients with COVID-19 compared to controls. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

tandfonline.com

Evaluation of long-term healthcare utilization and costs associated with COVID-19 among adults and children in the US

This study assessed long-term healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and direct medical costs associated with COVID-19 among adults and children in the United States. Using a large national claims ...

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

I've posted a detailed update on #COVID19 risks in the US. The CDC's NWSS isn't showing much of a trend, but WastewaterSCAN suggests COVID has more than doubled in a month. It still looks less like a broad national surge than like a series of brief, localized surges. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.com

COVID Is Rising for the First Time in 2026: Update for July 11, 2026

For several years, I provided weekly updates on COVID risks in the US. I suspended them three months ago, with COVID falling to near-record…

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

At the current time, around 1 in 853 actively infectious, on average. The sewersheds that are surging the most at present are in FL, TX, AL, and CA. (The south and west can expect worse surges than the Northeast and Midwest in summer.) 3/3

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Starting this late, we can expect this surge to peak in late August. Starting this low, it's still likely to continue our trend toward consecutively lower surges--but time will tell. 2/3

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Both the level of #COVID19 in US wastewater and the positive rate of testing have almost doubled in the past 3 weeks. We're still WELL below the levels in past lulls, but we might not be within two or three weeks at this rate. 1/3

Six months of COVID wastewater data from the US. It peaked above 140 PMMoV six months ago, fell to around 14 in early June, and is up to around 26 PMMoV today.

2 years of data on the positive rate of testing for COVID in the US. It peaked at almost 12% in 2024 and around 9% in 2025. It fell to 0.8% this summer and has risen to 1.5% now.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

The positive rate of #COVID19 testing is rising, which signifies our summer surge is underway. The positive rate is still low relative to past lulls (1.5% now vs ~2% for lulls in 2025), but the trend is definitely rising at this point. Wastewater data was interrupted by the holiday weekend.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

Even with the recent rise, levels are still more than 75% lower than the LOWEST levels we saw from mid-2022 to mid-2025. If this develops into a true summer surge (and I think it may), it is likely to be the lowest surge since 2020.

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

No new wastewater data from the CDC today due to the holiday. #COVID19 is rising in the US for the first time since December, based on WastewaterSCAN's incomplete data. The positive rate is also gently rising. Thus far, the rise is modest and not accelerating. 1/2

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Will Republicans just sit back and put our nation's most sensitive information in the hands of a man who has mishandled national secrets and who has a suspiciously close history with Putin. Why would any president need a list of all foreign espionage targets? www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/u...

nytimes.com

Inside Intelligence Agencies, a Fight Over Building a Master List of Spies

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Augie Ray @augieray.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

I created an interactive tool that estimates the proportion of people who are infectious with #COVID19. The 2 data points you need are wastewater level today and 10 days ago, which you can get nationally and locally in many places, such as WastewaterSCAN. us-covid-infectious-estimates.netlify.app

us-covid-infectious-estimates.netlify.app

COVID Prevalence Estimator — Wastewater Signal Tool

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