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Aubrey Clayton

@aubreyclayton.bsky.social
294 followers 73 following 177 posts

Author of Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science. I write about statistics, history, and the history of statistics. Opinions and Bayesian priors are my own. He/him

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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Please, Mr. Clayton was my grandfather. You can call me Dr. Clayton.
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Ghost in the Machine @ghostdoc2026.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
GHOST IN THE MACHINE is coming to @pbs.org and YouTube September 14th at 10pm ET / 7pm PT! Visit notaidoc.com for details on where to watch and stream!
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Today is I think a good day to reread Thurston's essay On Proof and Progress in Mathematics
Rather, as a more explicit (and leading) form of the question, I prefer How do mathematicians advance human understanding of mathematics? This question brings to the fore something that is fundamental and pervasive: that what we are doing is finding ways for people to understand and think about mathematics. The rapid advance of computers has helped dramatize this point, because computers and people are very different. For instance, when Appel and Haken completed a proof of the 4-color map theorem using a massive automatic computation, it evoked much controversy. I interpret the controversy as having little to do with doubt people had as to the veracity of the theorem or the correctness of the proof. Rather, it reflected a continuing desire for human understanding of a proof, in addition to knowledge that the theorem is true.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Every school form seems to have been authored by someone with no absolutely no experience filling out forms.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Dawn of The First Day -72 Hours Remain-
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Emily M. Bender @emilymbender.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
How about a jet-lagged live posting while I read? Trying to read this because I keep getting tagged in posts about it, but the first paragraph already contains synthetic text (a quote from Claude). I will skip that bit and persevere... www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
theguardian.com
Could AI be conscious?
Experts believe it’s at least possible. We urgently need a plan to navigate the ethical implications
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
And so I enter day 5 of having Golden from KPop Demon Hunters in my head.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Auto exec: "We need a name for this car company. Something that sounds American with strong Anglo-Saxon phonemes like Ford or Buick." VP of Marketing, about to have a career-defining moment: "So, I'm thinking we basically start with the French word for a female goat..."
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
How can you not be romantic about baseball?
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
"Are you, or is anyone else, safe right now?" is quite a question for an AI lawyer to ask in 2026.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Go see this when you can
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
In this Berkeley coffee shop, Massie still means algebraic topology. But they do know this: Trump has tied himself in knots trying to unseat an incumbent Kentucky Republican
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Teen pregnancy understood as a public health emergency ➡️ Largely successful interventions to reduce teen pregnancy ➡️ Unexpected feminist consequences in boosting young women's access to education and the workforce ➡️ Old conservative dudes panicking about "low fertility rates" ➡️ Repeat?
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Q: What's the weather like in Boston this week? A: Yes.
The weekly weather forecast for Boston showing temperatures from 49 to 95 and rain
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anil oza @aniloza.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
wow — the preprint host, arxiv, is banning authors for a year if they submit papers with hallucinated citations 🤖
Twitter thread from Thomas Dietterich, reading "Attention 
@arxiv
 authors: Our Code of Conduct states that by signing your name as an author of a paper, each author takes full responsibility for all its contents, irrespective of how the contents were generated. 1/
3:03 PM · May 14, 2026
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Thomas G. Dietterich
@tdietterich
·
1h
If generative AI tools generate inappropriate language, plagiarized content, biased content, errors, mistakes, incorrect references, or misleading content, and that output is included in scientific works, it is the responsibility of the author(s). 2/
Thomas G. Dietterich
@tdietterich
·
1h
We have recently clarified our penalties for this. If a submission contains incontrovertible evidence that the authors did not check the results of LLM generation, this means we can't trust anything in the paper. 3/
Thomas G. Dietterich
@tdietterich
·
1h
The penalty is a 1-year ban from arXiv followed by the requirement that subsequent arXiv submissions must first be accepted at a reputable peer-reviewed venue. 4/
Thomas G. Dietterich
@tdietterich
·
1h
Examples of incontrovertible evidence: hallucinated references, meta-comments from the LLM ("here is a 200 word summary; would you like me to make any changes?"; "the data in this table is illustrative, fill it in with the real numbers from your experiments") end/"
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
I've never felt the need to learn the different types of bears. All bears are the kind that can kill you, as far as I'm concerned.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Very savvy sponsored results for chatgpt here...
a google search for "claude" showing chatgpt's codex as the first sponsored result
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Coincidentally, the score at halftime was 86-47.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
"It was because... that caused... bc..." is an impressive amount of causality to pack into a single tweet. Kudos to the former congresswoman.
A tweet from Marjorie Taylor Greene reading "One day in the future, parents will tell their children that it was because of Trump’s war on Iran that caused farms to fail bc farmers couldn’t afford fertilizers and the cost of farming was too high."
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
ACA(stung by)Bs
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Like most people who work in education, my one and only hope is that someday a student will address me as "Yo, teach!"
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
So by this MAHAmath if, say, a vaccine reduced the fatality rate from 100 to 5 per 10,000 cases that would be 2000% effective, right?
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Patriots' Day was invented by the marathon companies to sell more marathons.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
On the subject of popes and moral leadership, I was reminded recently that the strongest case I ever encountered against the eugenics movement was given by Pope Pius XI in 1930
"In keeping with views on the sanctity of family that long predated Galton, the Catholic Church unsurprisingly came down especially hard on eugenics, particularly the practice of forced sterilization. In the encyclical of 1930, Pope Pius XI stated in emphatic terms that the state had no business deciding who was fit to get married or have children, a sacrament that, according to Christian theology, was given to mankind by God, and that “public magistrates have no direct power over the bodies of their subjects; therefore, where no crime has taken place and there is no cause present for grave punishment, they can never directly harm, or tamper with the integrity of the body, either for the reasons of eugenics or for any other reason.”
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
[citation needed]
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Move slowly and build things.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Nature is healing
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Ever since I was a kid I've wanted to engage with modeled facilitation protocols
A snippet of a description of an event. The description include the phrase "you will engage with modeled facilitation protocols."
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
There's a general problem in media that it's nearly impossible to tell a story about a charismatic but villainous white man, because too many people will end up siding with him. See also Walter White.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
We don't drink it to be safe. We drink it to feel alive.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
A reader described Trumpian logic as "modus trollens."
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
My latest opinion, in meme form
A meme of the distracted boyfriend, where the boyfriend is labeled GOP, his girlfriend is labeled War on Science, and the other woman he is looking at is labeled War on Math
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
*Math guy looks around at what's happening in the world* "This place needs more math."
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Trump's outlandish numerical claims — like reducing drug prices by 600% — are a good reminder of the importance of math education as a civic virtue. I wrote about it in the NYT www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Trump White House Needs a Refresher on Basic Math
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
I find these to be mostly harmless annoyances, with the exception of calling people like Epstein "PDF files," which is just great.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
I know the amount of Nintendo I played as a child was probably unhealthy, but at least that thing never served me any ads.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
At a Superbowl party in Newton, MA, my wife's cousin just said, "It's like we're sittin' shiva here."
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
A formative experience I had as a young person in Chicago was hearing then-mayor Daley say, essentially: space-savers are fine and sensible. This was, to my understanding, clearly against the law, but I learned that sometimes the people are governed by a higher, unwritten law.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Where are Mike Mulligan and his steam shovel when you need them
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Hey I know this one: the answer is eugenics
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Today I learned: there was briefly a plan for a Nintendo character called "Walupeach," the evil version of Princess Peach as Wario is to Mario and Waluigi is to Luigi. But Shigeru Miyamoto scrapped the idea because it was too similar to existing anime characters. www.reddit.com/r/Waluigi/s/...
reddit.com
From the Waluigi community on Reddit: Waluigi's creator shares images of unused character Walupeach on Instagram
Explore this post and more from the Waluigi community
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
People have been trying (understandably) to dunk on the FDA about this, but I think there's real progress in their acceptance of Bayesian stats. When I wrote about pediatric COVID vaccines in 2022 the FDA was still requiring frequentist methods, delaying the approval. www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | I’m a Parent and a Statistician. There’s a Smarter Way to Think About the Under-5 Vaccine. (Published 2022)
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Ghost in the Machine @ghostdoc2026.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
"Ghost in the Machine approaches ubiquitous questions like “What is AI?”, “Who is building it?”, and “What will humans become?” by exploring how emerging technologies have historically reshaped identity, culture, and global power..." Read the full interview with @valerieveatch.bsky.social here!
thenewcurrent.co.uk
TNC | Sundance Interview 2026 | Valerie Veatch
The untold origins of artificial intelligence lie not in machines but in power, revealing the fantasies behind the hype that got us here and where we go next.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
I’m thrilled to be a part of @ghostdoc2026.bsky.social a landmark documentary that’ll be mandatory viewing for anyone thinking about or using AI. The film is directed by Valerie Veatch and premieres at #SundanceFilmFestival next month. Follow or sign up for updates at ghostinthemachinedoc.ai
ghostinthemachinedoc.ai
Ghost in the Machine
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Update: I needed this to solve a problem, and in the course of that solution I also claimed that 219 is prime. Really showing off my math skills.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Doing some advanced math today.
A calculator screen showing the calculation 419-219=200
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Chat is there a name for a crime committed while one is waging war? I feel like this may have come up
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Trump's concern for "any President" is much like my 4-year-old asking if "people" are allowed to eat Halloween candy for breakfast.
But on Saturday, Mr. Trump said in a statement to The New York Times that “many friends” had asked him to pardon Mr. Hernández: “They gave him 45 years because he was the President of the Country — you could do this to any President.”
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Sometimes you meet the bar, and sometimes the bar meets you.
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Aubrey Clayton @aubreyclayton.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Real ones know that you only need to cook turkey to 165 if you're planning to eat it immediately at that temperature. Hold your bird at 150-155 for a few mins for juicy, bacteria-free results.
Graph of time vs temperature to eradicate bacteria from cooked food.
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