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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

A nodal model is right for 2028 and wrong for 2046. Nobody knows yet what gets built or retired by then. Where to switch to equilibrium economics is what I keep chewing on. www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/enhance...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Most bad surprises I've seen came from the node, not the hub. Basis eats the return, and nobody notices until the model's built. Our PowerVAL folks just put nodal basis on a map so you can catch it sooner. www.ascendanalytics.com/powerval-boo...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Is "green-ish" good enough in NYISO and ISO-NE? Hard to forecast when policy and project risk move together. Webinar Oct 15, 11am MT. www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/nyiso-i...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Heard a version of this at the Ascend Summit in Boulder and keep coming back to it. A large load can show up in two or three years. New generation takes five or six. Somebody has to commit money before the load is certain, and I'm not sure we've agreed on who that should be.

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Sat in on the Day 2 keynote panel at Ascend Summit 2026. Google's Jacob Susman framed the new generation as a coordination problem, and I think that's the right frame. Large loads, developers, and grid operators each plan on their own clock. The hard part is getting them onto one shared picture.

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Left Ascend Summit Day 1 with one worry. Our industry explains data center growth well to itself and badly to the public, who may pay for it. Still figuring out what good education looks like. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Ascend Summit 2026 opened with a panel on who pays for AI load growth. Cost allocation is the hard part to me, and public trust may settle it before market design does. Who's working on that? www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

ascendanalytics.com

Ascend Summit 2026 Agenda & Registration | Ascend Analytics

Join power market experts at Ascend Summit 2026 for energy market developers, utilities, investors, and buyers.

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

ERCOT and PJM have run different reliability designs for 20 years. Large load growth is the first thing I've seen stress both at once. Curious whether the answers converge at the Ascend Summit. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Heading to the Ascend Summit next week. The session I care about most is hedging when load growth is itself the uncertain variable. Never found a clean answer on the trading side. Has anyone? www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

A battery's value sits in a handful of hours at one node. In my experience, that's the hardest part of the valuation to get right. I'll be at the Ascend Analytics Summit next week to compare notes. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Fired up for this lineup. A former @ferc.gov Chairman opens day one on demand, cost, and reliability, then ERCOT, PJM, and CoreWeave on turning policy into practice. Ascend Summit, Sept 30-Oct 2: www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Power markets are running closer to the edge of supply, and forecasting errors are becoming asymmetric. An extreme hour now costs a lot more than an average one. www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/enhance...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Ascend Summit 2026: sessions on capacity market shifts, procurement decisions under load growth, capital allocation, and M&A/asset valuation in a risk-aware market. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Bidding on 3CE's Clean Energy and Reliability RFP? Ascend Analytics is hosting a webinar today on the process, ahead of the Sept. 25 deadline. 2 pm MT / 1 pm PT. Register: www.ascendanalytics.com/3ce26/clean-...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

PJM and ERCOT don't need the same capacity market fix. Their load and resource mix differ. Megawatts matter less than who shows up when the system is actually stressed. www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/load-gr...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I don't think the frameworks that finance and permit power have caught up to how fast load growth and reliability risk are moving. We're digging into that at the Ascend Summit, Sept 30-Oct 2: www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Utility Dive projected ERCOT at 154 GW by 2035, and our own is closer to 120 GW by 2030. Interconnection queues aren't a forecast, they're requests. The gap is timing and attrition. www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/ercot-l...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

3CE's 2026 RFP seeks 20+ MW of renewable generation, paired with storage or standalone, to meet RPS, GHG, and reliability goals. Ascend hosts a webinar on Sept 16 at 1 pm PT. Register: www.ascendanalytics.com/3ce26/clean-... #3CE

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Mark Christie ran @ferc.gov. He's opening day at the Ascend Summit, then ERCOT, @pjminterconnection.bsky.social, and CoreWeave have to show how reliability holds up on a live grid. That's the part worth watching. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Running real assets teaches you what backtesting can't. Ascend Analytics just hit 5.2 GW of live battery storage bid through SmartBidder. Matt Tormollen on why the scale matters: www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/ascend-...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

The real bottleneck in energy right now isn't capital or technology, it's speed to power. Interconnection queues and regulatory reform haven't kept up with how quickly load is coming online. Digging into this at Ascend Summit this year. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Battery storage in NY is not solar redux. Dispatch strategy determines the economics. Optimize it right and beat solar returns, mess it up and you don't have a deal. www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/new-yor...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

The large-load market is stuck. Utilities and developers want to move, but they're trapped on the same question: how do you make the energy transition economical? Ascend has the modeling rigor and the data to answer it. That's the work. www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/ascend-...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Central Coast Community Energy's new RFP: 4-hour storage minimum. 20-year contract ceiling. Open to alternative tech. That's not standard utility procurement anymore. The market is reshaping, and the procurement is following. www.ascendanalytics.com/3ce26/clean-...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Load growth is reshaping the reliability and capital allocation math faster than most markets move. That's why 350+ energy leaders are gathering in Boulder next month. This is where the conversation is actually happening. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Heading to Boulder for the Ascend Summit. Mark Christie, former FERC Chair, headlines with execs from ERCOT, PJM, and SPP on grid reliability and load growth. Early bird pricing ends next month. www.ascendanalytics.com/insights/asc...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Hitting commercial operation isn't the finish line for a merchant battery, it's where new risk starts. Our SmartBidder team and Tenaska Power Systems are running a session on this Aug 27 at 11 a.m. MT, if useful: www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/beyond-...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

ERCOT's large-load queue has passed 200 GW since 2024, but generation is lagging. Ascend Analytics' Robert LaFaso told Utility Dive: merchant storage may not be investable without firmer revenue. www.utilitydive.com/news/supply-...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Grid build-outs are 5 to 10 years behind AI demand. Collocation helps, but the economic hurdles in deregulated markets are huge. Expect major power market price impacts. How are you tracking this structural volatility? See the full picture: bit.ly/4vBOxZD?utm_...

bit.ly

Breaking the speed limit: Wood Mackenzie warns AI data centre power race threatens projects and consumers

The race to power artificial intelligence is pushing US data centre development to break the speed limit of grid development - creating significant risk for projects, markets and consumers, according ...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

The gap between Europe's climate targets and actual delivery is widening. For trading desks, this infrastructure lag means widening basis spreads and unpredictable volatility. How are you positioning for this? Discover the advantage: www.woodmac.com/market-insig...

woodmac.com

Energy transition outlook: EU | Wood Mackenzie

The European Union maintains its position as a global climate leader, yet faces mounting challenges in translating ambitious targets into tangible outcomes – and implementation gaps are widening .

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

How is your book adjusting to the US-Iran deal? Reopening the Strait of Hormuz alters global risk premiums immediately. We break down crude volatility, Argentina's shale, and regional data centre load growth. See the full picture: www.woodmac.com/blogs/energy...

woodmac.com

US and Iran agree initial peace deal | Wood Mackenzie

US and Iranian sources, and the government of Pakistan which has been mediating between them, announced a peace deal had been agreed.The agreement will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with further detail...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

China's EV slowdown to 2024 levels changes the game for energy commodities. With next-generation battery timelines extending, ultra-fast charging and storage are driving regional power market price impacts. Discover the advantage. bit.ly/4uQR56o?utm_...

bit.ly

China EV market shift 2026

The global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets.

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Every crisis sparks talk of a permanent market shift, but global gas markets are built to adapt. Supply diversity and infrastructure resilience are redefining commodity volatility. How are you adjusting your positions? Listen here. youtu.be/YvO3fAEpQwU?...

youtu.be

Why gas is winning the data centre race | Energy Gang

YouTube video by Wood Mackenzie

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

EU methane regulations could double European gas prices to US$17 per thousand cubic feet. This is an import compliance bottleneck, not a physical shortage. Traders must anticipate these new basis spreads. Listen to our latest analysis. youtu.be/ib8mULR-meA?...

youtu.be

LNG crisis: will Europe's methane rules trigger a gas shock? | Energy Gang

YouTube video by Wood Mackenzie

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

The Iran war supply shock changes everything for commodity markets. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz will not be smooth sailing. @woodmac.com mapped three scenarios for structural volatility and the shift from molecules to electrons. See what comes next: www.woodmac.com/horizons/ira...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Cushing crude stocks are <2M barrels from tank bottoms. Pipeline outages mean standard logistics could hit a wall, pushing stress models toward $200/bbl. @woodmac.com data shows why real-time physical visibility is vital for alpha. www.woodmac.com/press-releas...

woodmac.com

Cushing crude stocks sit less than 2 mmbbls above operational floor amid global supply crisis

The global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets.

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Middle East supply disruption isn't felt equally. While Hormuz bottlenecks block some, flexible producers are positioning for massive price spreads. We look past the headlines on 16 June to map the trajectories. Discover the advantage. go.woodmac.com/l/131501/202...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

The deregulated power model faces a massive test. Data centre load growth requires gas, but high capital costs challenge PJM and ERCOT. To incentivise capacity, prices must rise. How are you managing this volatility? Discover the advantage: www.woodmac.com/horizons/can...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Siloed data cannot protect your positions from falling capture prices. Join us in London on 16-17 September at @woodmac.com European Power Investment Summit to analyse standalone storage and PPA risk dynamics with BW ESS. See the full picture. www.woodmac.com/events/euro-...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

European BESS is shifting. Ancillary revenues are fading, making energy arbitrage the primary driver. How are you adjusting your trading models for this volatility? See how @woodmac.com expanded our benchmarks to the Netherlands and Belgium. www.woodmac.com/news/opinion...

woodmac.com

BESS revenue outlook: the Netherlands and Belgium

Europe’s utility-scale battery storage market is no longer a story about a handful of pioneering markets

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

The AI story is fundamentally a commodity volatility story. With grid connection timelines stretching up to 10 years, the scramble for immediate firm power is completely rewriting regional price spreads. See @woodmac.com's live analysis of the shift. youtu.be/YvO3fAEpQwU?...

youtu.be

Why gas is winning the data centre race | Energy Gang

YouTube video by Wood Mackenzie

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Can you see supply shifts before they alter the curve? 📈 Vaca Muerta is scaling toward 1.6 million boe/d by 2035. For trading desks, this means deep structural shifts for global LNG arbitrage and price volatility. Discover the advantage: www.woodmac.com/blogs/the-ed...

woodmac.com

Is Argentina’s giant shale play the next Midland Basin? | Wood Mackenzie

Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play is emerging as a world-class oil and gas resource. Discover six key insights on production growth, LNG exports, investment trends and why it could become the next Mi...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Solar and storage locked down 91% of new US capacity in Q1. 🔋 Policy headwinds didn't stop the buildout. For traders, this supply surge means a new era of price volatility and shifting spark spreads. Dive into @woodmac.com outlook: go.woodmac.com/l/131501/202...

go.woodmac.com

US Solar Market Insight | Solar Service | Wood Mackenzie

Leverage Your Solar Potential with our North America "US" Utility Solar Services expertise for Reliable in-depth analysis of the nation's largest solar market.

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

How do you navigate renewed volatility in global gas markets? We asked traders and exchanges to weigh in on these shifting dynamics. See the financial implications in our “Trading in a new reality” recap. www.woodmac.com/news/opinion...

woodmac.com

Where global gas markets are mispricing risk | Wood Mackenzie

Insights from Wood Mackenzie and our trading panel at the Gas, LNG & The Future of Energy Conference.

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Hydrogen no longer serves as just a climate play. It hedges against supply chain concentration. Disruptions alter global basis risk and ammonia spreads. We expect state support to last 15 to 20 years. Price the shift. Discover the advantage. www.woodmac.com/blogs/energy...

woodmac.com

Middle East conflict adds a new dimension to hydrogen strategies | Wood Mackenzie

The Middle East conflict is reshaping hydrogen strategies, with energy security emerging as a key driver. Higher gas prices and supply risks could strengthen the case for low-carbon hydrogen, but long...

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Siloed data hides the real risk. US solar dominates capacity, but annual growth flatlines through 2031 due to grid constraints and FEOC rules. This structural drag directly impacts spark spreads and basis risk. Map the trading implications. www.woodmac.com/news/opinion...

woodmac.com

The US solar industry has a robust pipeline. So why is 2026 looking flat?

he industry enters a period of stability, but structural and policy headwinds are dampening growth

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Solar generation costs are a blind spot. Volatility lives in integration. Grid infrastructure demands up to 80% of system investment. We equip you to trade localised basis risk by modelling the entire power system. Discover the advantage: bit.ly/4v2vQyu

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

How are you pricing the basis risk from AI infrastructure? 12 GW of new data center load is triggering localised congestion and severe price volatility. We provide the grid data you need to trade these widening spark spreads. www.woodmac.com/insights/

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

"Something's got to break." Europe relies on US & Qatari LNG, but new methane rules make compliance incredibly tough. What happens when energy security and climate goals clash? We discuss the real market risks. Listen here: youtu.be/ib8mULR-meA

youtu.be

LNG crisis: will Europe's methane rules trigger a gas shock? | Energy Gang

YouTube video by Wood Mackenzie

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Matthew Boyda @atxcanadian.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Simon Flowers distilled 10 takeaways from @woodmac.com's LNG conference. Near-term price risk is real, long-term demand holds, and trading is reshaping the industry faster than most models assume. www.woodmac.com/blogs/the-ed...

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