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The analysis in this Partners Update maps Low-Income Housing Tax Credit production across the Southeast, highlighting strong micropolitan and rural output, state variation, and Southeastern patterns that diverge from the nation. Read more: atlfed.org/4ARhPqF.

Atlanta Fed graphic featuring text and headshots

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 02/10/2026

Gaining employment in a booming employment sector can yield significant benefits over the course of a career—but not always. Examining worker data from a previous tech boom, a new Policy Hub: Macroblog post discusses outcomes that varied widely: atlfed.org/4rAQKUq.

Image showing post's title, "What Happened to Workers Who Joined the Last Tech Boom?," and the author's name, Adrien Matray

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 02/10/2026

Both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2%) changed little in September, the @usbls.bsky.social reported today. atlfed.org/4rHJNkD

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 01/10/2026

On October 1, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 3.7%: bit.ly/32EYojR. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 01/10/2026

During the past month, both initial and continued unemployment claims activity remained steady. In the third week of reporting in September, there were fewer than 198,000 initial unemployment claims filed nationally on a seasonally adjusted basis. atlfed.org/3TFpLdV

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 30/09/2026

While there is a broad-based slowing among some of the near-term measures of underlying PCE inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/4giDCzo

Atlanta Fed 09-30-2026 Underlying Inflation Dashboard chart

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 30/09/2026

With newer generations of US women less likely to have children than preceding generations, the authors of this Policy Hub paper identify reasons for declining birth rates as well as the variation among a range of generational cohorts: atlfed.org/4zbINrA.

Image showing the paper's title, "Declining Birth Rates in the US: It’s Not Only about Preferences," and the coauthors' names: Julie Hotchkiss and Deborah Partey

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 30/09/2026

Join Federal Reserve Education on Tuesday, October 20, as we celebrate #EconEdMonth with our webinar, Teaching Monetary Policy: From the Fed’s Origins to Today’s Tools. For more information and to register, visit atlfed.org/3VNyIlW.

Teaching Monetary Policy webinar Tuesday, October 20, at 5 p.m. (ET) / 4 p.m. (CT)

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 30/09/2026

Sep 30: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis in addition to updated nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed and Atlanta Fed: atlfed.org/4rEK5Zn.

Atlanta Fed's 09-30-26 Taylor Rule line chart

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 30/09/2026

Most firms are keeping tariff refunds as cash—but others are using them to the benefit of consumers and employees. atlfed.org/4dgJFCx

Dual line chart showing the Atlanta Fed's 09-30-26 Survey of Business Uncertainty's revenue and growth expectations

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 30/09/2026

On September 30, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 3.7%: bit.ly/32EYojR. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 29/09/2026

When Atlanta Fed researchers examined how housing and other financial factors affected displaced residents following Hurricane Michael (2018), their findings revealed the challenges to successful relocation: atlfed.org/4hTso51.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 29/09/2026

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 29/09/2026

Documenting facts about uninsured deposits, the authors see benefit in increasing deposit insurance for households’ deposits relative to firms’ deposits and show that reducing bailouts increases bank failures due to runs and causes major macroeconomic impact: atlfed.org/4iQmsuD.

Image showing the paper's title, "Bailing Out (Firms’) Uninsured Deposits: A Quantitative Analysis," and the authors' names: N. Aaron Pancost and Roberto Robatto

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 28/09/2026

Homeownership affordability deteriorated nationally in July as mortgage rates remained elevated and the median sales price reached its highest level on record. atlfed.org/49LVIoH More highlights of the recent update to our Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) in the thread below.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 28/09/2026

Developing algorithms for estimating high frequency principal components (PCs) for monthly macroeconomic data, the author finds that when suitably aggregated those PCs can closely approximate those calculated from monthly data even during a government shutdown: atlfed.org/3TniXS5.

Image showing the paper's title, "Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Principal Components When Not All Months Are the Same," and the author's name: Patrick Higgins

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 28/09/2026

In this working paper, economists revisit the relationship between factors that play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy. Their proposed method finds some support of a nonlinear pass-through of labor market tightness to core inflation. Read more: atlfed.org/3TmG3bv.

Image showing the paper title, "Testing for Contemporaneous Exogeneity in Linear Time-Series Models," and the authors: Prosper Dovonon and Nikolay Gospodinov

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 25/09/2026

On Sept. 25, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 5.0%:atlfed.org/3T3U1ir. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/43UNhVO.

Line chart showing Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate at 5.0%.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 24/09/2026

Firms’ inflation expectations for the coming year increased to 2.4 percent. Sales levels and profit margins compared to "normal times" decreased, according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest Business Inflation Expectations survey. atlfed.org/4rt1tQG.

Image showing businesses' inflation expectations at 2.4 percent for the year ahead.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 24/09/2026

Some firms will receive a windfall from tariff refunds. But what firms plan to do with this revenue varies widely among recipients. Examining recent survey data provides some clarity, and a new Policy Hub: Macroblog post scrutinizes the range of expectations: atlfed.org/4xvSHTn.

Chart showing what firms plan to do with tariff refunds

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 23/09/2026

Measuring the pass-through of shipping costs to US producer prices, the authors show that though this pass-through is normally negligible, the pandemic’s broad, persistent surge reached production costs and was built into prices cumulatively as firms repriced: atlfed.org/4dTX0Rt.

Image showing the paper's title, "Shipping Cost Shocks and US Producer Prices: Normal versus Crisis Pass-through," and the authors: Simon Gilchrist, Bin Wei, Vivian Z. Yue, and Egon Zakrajšek

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 22/09/2026

Curious about launching a Qualified Opportunity Fund or connecting with social-impact investors? This Connecting Communities session will cover practical strategies, resources, and collaborative approaches to ensure Opportunity Zone dollars benefit communities. Register now: bit.ly/4rpgTFx.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 22/09/2026

Linking confidential census trade records to Bureau of Labor Statistics producer-price microdata for 6,000 US manufacturers, the authors find shipping-cost pass-through is negligible in normal times but roughly ten times larger during the pandemic: atlfed.org/4y9yOCT.

Image showing the title of the working paper, "Shipping Cost Shocks and US Producer Prices: Normal versus Crisis Pass-through," and the coauthors: Simon Gilchrist, Bin Wei, Vivian Z. Yue, and Egon Zakrajšek

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 21/09/2026

Image showing post title, "How Are Firms Using Their Tariff Refunds?," and coauthor names: Jose Maria Barrero, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México—Business School; Nick Bloom, Stanford University; Steven J. Davis, Hoover Institution and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research; Kevin Foster, Atlanta Fed; Aaron Jalca, Atlanta Fed; Brent Meyer, Atlanta Fed; Emil Mihaylov, Atlanta Fed; and Michael Navarrete, Atlanta Fed

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 17/09/2026

On September 17, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 5.1%: bit.ly/32EYojR. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

Line chart showing GDPNow estimate at 5.1%

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 16/09/2026

Sep 16: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data with the new fed funds target rate range midpoint used in the heatmap following the recent FOMC meeting: atlfed.org/4gZmvTG

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 16/09/2026

On Sept. 16, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 5.1%:atlfed.org/3SN3w5t. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/43UNhVO.

Line chart showing Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate at 5.1%.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 14/09/2026

September 14: We've updated our Market Probability Tracker following the @usbls.bsky.social release of August's CPI. View the Atlanta Fed update online now: atlfed.org/4r8wXvc

Line chart showing proabability of a rate hike or a rate cut

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 11/09/2026

While there is a broad-based slowing among some the near-term measures of underlying CPI inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/4giDCzo

Atlanta Fed 09-11-2026 Underlying Inflation Dashboard chart

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 11/09/2026

September 11: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating BLS data in addition to updated nowcasts from the @clevelandfed.bsky.social and Atlanta Fed: atlfed.org/4h5UvMU

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 11/09/2026

The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 3.1% (on an annualized basis) in August, following a 3.5% increase in July. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 2.7%. atlfed.org/4cDm8vj

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 11/09/2026

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 4.1% in August from 3.8% the prior month. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker held at 3.6% in August, while the Tracker for those changing jobs increased to 5.0% from 4.4% in July. atlfed.org/4iYoVTJ

multiple line chart showing wage growth estimates

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 10/09/2026

On Sept. 10, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 4.4%:atlfed.org/4iWrLIT. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/43UNhVO.

Line chart showing Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate at 4.4%.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 09/09/2026

Small business owners, we are seeking your feedback! The #SmallBusinessCreditSurvey is now open. Your voice matters. Share your successes, challenges, and outlook for the future: atlfed.org/4rmtI3L.

Graphic with text:

Respond now!

Small Business Credit Survey

Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, St. Louis, San Francisco

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 09/09/2026

September 9: We've updated our Market Probability Tracker following @usbls.bsky.social release of August’s #employment report. View the Atlanta Fed update online now: atlfed.org/4yxMuHM.

09-09-2026 Atlanta Fed Market Probability Tracker line chart

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 03/09/2026

The Southeast economy continued to gradually expand in late summer, even as contrasts persisted between the spending habits of cost-conscious consumers of modest means and those of more affluent households. Read more in the latest Beige Book report from the Atlanta Fed: atlfed.org/4gtylFe

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 03/09/2026

On September 3, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 4.7%: bit.ly/32EYojR. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

Line chart showing GDPNow estimate at 4.7%

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 03/09/2026

The application is now open for our research analyst (RA) program! RAs get hands-on research experience with Atlanta Fed economists and develop their knowledge of economics, data analysis, and programming skills. They also participate in the policy process: atlfed.org/3SltjBy. #econsky

Atlanta Fed reasearch analysts and employees with Fed Governor Jerome Powell

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 02/09/2026

During the past month, both initial and continued unemployment claims activity remained steady. In the fourth week of reporting in August, there were fewer than 204,000 initial unemployment claims filed nationally on a seasonally adjusted basis. atlfed.org/4gR1iKf

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 02/09/2026

Some consumers continue to tighten their belts, and as a result businesses are following suit, according to the new Beige Book report from the Atlanta Fed: atlfed.org/4gtylFe.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 02/09/2026

The authors of this Policy Hub paper analyze potential factors contributing to downside risk to the stock market if investor sentiment turns negative, thereby driving down equity prices and posing downside risk to US aggregate consumption: atlfed.org/4xuLWSE.

Image showing the paper title, "Downside Risk to the Stock Market and Consumption," and the authors' names, Indrajit Mitra and David Rapach

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 01/09/2026

As severe weather affects the Sixth District, we'd like to remind you that the Atlanta Fed is prepared to maintain essential financial services and timely communication. Read more about our contingency information in this letter: atlfed.org/4zQLkIA.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 01/09/2026

On September 1, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 4.8%: bit.ly/32EYojR. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

Line chart showing GDPNow estimate at 4.8%

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 27/08/2026

Everyone buys groceries, but some of us pay more than others. This episode of the Economy Matters podcast discusses Atlanta Fed research into how food inflation varies among US cities: atlfed.org/4wXbUx4.

A quotation, “There are very large differences in the basket of goods between rich and poor MSAs," by Michael Navarette, Atlanta Fed research economist and podcast guest

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 27/08/2026

As financial pressures intensify, workers describe a job market where opportunities feel narrower and financial strain more acute. This article explores how low‑ and moderate‑income workers are navigating a shifting landscape marked by rising costs: atlfed.org/4gWqQqp.

Financial survival or stability? Workers and job market weigh in.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 27/08/2026

🏪 Retail 🏪 Although down slightly from last year’s levels, median Retail CREMI continues to perform strongly with almost 70% of markets reporting positive scores.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 27/08/2026

🏢 Office 🏢 At +0.09, median CREMI for Office is now just slightly above long-term average. This is primarily due to improved asset value performance as 80% of markets report asset value as a positive contributor to their CREMI score.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 27/08/2026

🏘️ Multifamily 🏘️ Median Multifamily CREMI was little changed over the quarter, with 57% of markets reporting negative scores. Overall trends are improved, however, as approximately 70% of markets report year-over-year increases in CREMI scores.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 27/08/2026

🏭 Industrial 🏭 Median CREMI increased just above long-term average with 56% of markets now reporting positive scores. Economic conditions continue to be favorable, as are CRE indicator’s occupancy rate and net operating income.

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Atlanta Fed @atlantafed.org · 27/08/2026

🏨 Hospitality 🏨 Median CREMI performance increased from -0.33 last quarter to +0.21 with 66% of markets reporting an overall positive CREMI score. Along with MSA-level economic indicators, occupancy rate was a primary positive contributor.

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