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Jason Cohen

@asmartbear.com
9.6K followers 2.3K following 8.4K posts

Keyword, buzzword, half-truth, adjective, hey look at me! (founder of two unicorns: WPEngine.com, SmartBear.com). Writing for 18 years at: longform.asmartbear.com

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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 5m
Data tells you about the past, but you have to decide what you think will happen in the future. The future is data-informed, but not data-driven.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 4h
Thank you so much, that's very appreciated! LMK how you end up liking it!
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 4h
That's a really good and deep point I think. It 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 avoid embarrassment, and with it, avoids any chance of being interesting, or great.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 9h
I didn't invent it - I reference the creator and his article from 1951. It's also what Tadlock uses with his "superforecasters."
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 9h
So, heed the advice of investors who say to raise more than you think you'll need, as it's prudent given the inherent unpredictability in a new business's trajectory. More money if you do, more money if you don't ( (5/5)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 9h
Underestimating funding needs by not raising "more than enough" upfront is denying the reality that projections will be off. This sets up a cash crunch 9-12 months later. (4/5)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 9h
The only scenario where the original funding estimate is accurate is if revenue growth exactly matches the plan over the next 12-18 months, which is extremely unlikely to occur. (3/5)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 9h
This is because revenue growth rarely perfectly matches projections - it is either slower than expected, requiring more funding to sustain operations, or faster than expected, requiring cash for rapidly scaling up hiring, customer support, etc. (2/5)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 9h
Startups and new businesses almost always require more funding than initially projected, even when founders try to account for potential overruns. (1/5)
longform.asmartbear.com
More money if you do, more money if you don’t
A business always takes more money than you expect, even when you take this fact into account. Here’s why.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 19h
If you want your forecast to be correct in the long run, just guess the overall average. But the average contains no insight, no additional information, so it’s not a good forecast. Here’s how to measure forecasts properly:
longform.asmartbear.com
How to measure the accuracy of forecasts
How do you assess forecasts, when the forecast is only a probability? It’s not just about accuracy. Let’s dive into the math.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 29/09/2026
We can’t read the label from inside the jar, which is why things like creating your strategy or writing great customer interview questions is best with a facilitator. So, here’s exactly what that looks like! New Smart Bear Live E08:
youtube.com
E08: Creating customer interview questions before you have customers
He built it, and they didn’t come.Rison Simon built PainPointy to scan Reddit so that marketers could learn the pain points of their customers and come up wi…
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 29/09/2026
The real bar for execs: If I took a six-month sabbatical to another galaxy and never checked in… would that department be measurably better when I return? Meaning: Processes better. Team stronger. Output higher. That’s “lift.”
longform.asmartbear.com
How to hire people who are better than you
If you don’t hire people better than you, the organization gets bigger, not better. But how do you hire for something you don’t understand?
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 29/09/2026
When you're honest about why people return a product, then even if they buy it, they 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘵 those flaws, and they don't return it. Yes there’s real data about that too. Be honest about flaws; you’ll sell more, and have fewer cancellations.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 28/09/2026
Actions > Words So, e.g. [How our customer service works] > “We love our customers”
longform.asmartbear.com
Hello, I’m 1074018628
Is “customer service” a genuine service? Or is it a shield so that most people at your company never have to speak to one of those pesky customers?
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 28/09/2026
Yup, and half of yesterday's was wrong, and they're copying it. :-)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 28/09/2026
Have you wanted to see how to implement my customer interview process live, and with the gory, messy detail of real-world implementation? New Smart Bear Live E08 just dropped! Starring Rison Simon (PainPointy):
youtube.com
E08: Creating customer interview questions before you have customers
He built it, and they didn’t come.Rison Simon built PainPointy to scan Reddit so that marketers could learn the pain points of their customers and come up wi…
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 28/09/2026
Who cares. If the customers want it, do it. Competitors will make their own software fast, or not, no matter what you do.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 27/09/2026
If your competitors are watching, they'll see everything. If they're not, then why are you worried about them copying you.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 27/09/2026
Any time you ship anything -- design, website, code -- others will see it, and some will copy it. The better your ideas, the more likely they'll be copied. It’s the cost of doing great work. So don’t get worked up about it. Just do more great work, and you’ll win.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 27/09/2026
It's not "eventual" if you're using GAAP accounting -- it's always been the case that "costs required to deliver the product" must be in COGS (or "gross margin" more accurately). Internal dev is R&D; deliery is GM
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 27/09/2026
They go hand in hand, in the sense that you decide first what the strategy of the company is (e.g. marketshare-first vs revenue-first), and then look for investors who want to take that particular set of trade-offs. Not first investors and then product.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 27/09/2026
So you're saying the founders of companies like eBay and Facebook and Cloudflare grew with free customers because they wanted more funding, not because it was their strategy to win their market?
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 27/09/2026
New Smart Bear Live E08 just dropped! Writing the customer interview questions you need before you have any customers. Starring Rison Simon (PainPointy):
youtube.com
E08: Creating customer interview questions before you have customers
He built it, and they didn’t come.Rison Simon built PainPointy to scan Reddit so that marketers could learn the pain points of their customers and come up wi…
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 27/09/2026
Even if you want to raise money, first get 100 paying customers without raising money. An “existence proof” addresses almost all investor objections. And, you can decide whether or not you want to raise anyway.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 26/09/2026
Why do you think that is? Sincere question, i.e. if you can see the benefits (and problems of course), why doesn't it translate to other contexts for you?
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 26/09/2026
Often local optimization is global inefficiency. With processes, always optimize globally. With people, global still gets the nod, but you don’t want to crush everyone’s spirit. My ideas on this:
longform.asmartbear.com
Individual efficiency vs administrative efficiency
When to prioritize individual autonomy, and when to standardize for global optimization.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 26/09/2026
When you’re small, all employees understand the customer. Can’t help it. You lose that as you scale. Combat that by having weekly tours through support or sales. Not doing the work, just paying attention. Unless you think understanding the customer is a disruption.
longform.asmartbear.com
The fundamental forces of scale
These forces make larger companies slower and more difficult to execute, but also more effective when harnessed and leveraged.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 26/09/2026
1000 true fans does not get a creator enough money to quit the day job. Sorry, that theory has never been true. Also doesn’t work for one-time revenue products. Does work for SaaS.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 25/09/2026
I’ve seen a price change of +$5/mo result in a 20% 𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘱 in new-buyers-per-month. I’ve seen a price change of +$300/mo result in a 50% 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 in new-buyers-per-month. You don’t know until you try. One of the biggest levers you have. (I know, it’s scary.)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 25/09/2026
See?? Proof!!!
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 25/09/2026
Haha, nice, true.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 25/09/2026
Bravery is being scared and doing it anyway....
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 25/09/2026
Precious few companies are truly trying to make a big difference in the world, a higher purpose. Most are making the world a 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 better, in that the world isn't worse, and the product is useful. You decide what impact you want to strive for.
longform.asmartbear.com
Mission, Vision, poTAYto, poTAHto
Mission, vision, purpose, BHAG. Are they useful north stars, or academic nonsense?
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 25/09/2026
"Being well-rested" == "Productivity"
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
More on finding your own path, while extracting 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦 advice or inspo from others: (7/7)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
Therefore, what 𝘺𝘰𝘶 should do is: Follow your nature. Because the natural path is the one you will be able to maximize, and the one most likely to be joyful, or at least satisfying, because it is consonant with your nature. (6/7)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
And there are paths in-between. And some are more straight (Zuck, Kalanick) and some are not (Jobs, Hastings). So, it's personal, and circumstantial, even when it’s successful. (5/7)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
There are also visionaries, the usual ones trotted out are Jobs, Musk, Zuck, Kalanick, Hastings. They really did see a multi-decade vision -- they wrote it down or was recorded on video so they really did. (4/7)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
I believe it's personal. There are people like Linus (and me) who put one foot in front of the other, on a good path but without an end goal or "vision," and get there. (3/7)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
Do you believe in linear progression? Immediate needs → a bit bigger goals → even bigger goals → even bigger and so on. Or do you believe in starting with a very big ambition and doing everything to get there? === MY ANSWER === (2/7)
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
I got this question the other day (edited): === QUESTION === Was watching a Linus interview today. He said: "I like seeing people looking at the stars and wanting to be there but I'm a type of guy who looks at the ground and wants to fix the potholes" (1/7)
longform.asmartbear.com
Distinguishing constructive criticism from bad business advice
Beware of advice that tries to change who you are. True wisdom guides you to a better version of yourself.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
Just because something has never been easier, doesn’t mean that it is easy.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
You mean WITH a case study…
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 24/09/2026
Stars stream light in all directions, but only the tiniest fraction hits our eye. We are the ICP. So too there are so many ways to fail at something, and a small number of ways that are perfect.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 23/09/2026
So you watched it and didn't see it?
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 23/09/2026
There’s a million AI voice companies. George Paladichuk founded one of the successful ones (NaiL), but most of his revenue comes from one big franchise. How should he expand within a franchise? And land the next? It’s all in Smart Bear Live E07:
youtube.com
E07 w/ Dan Martell: 1 big logo won’t get him the next 10
How can George Paladichuk take his startup NaiL from 1 huge customer, to the next 100 customers?Cohost Dan Martell and I dig in: A candid working session inc…
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 23/09/2026
Only one way to find out!
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 23/09/2026
If you found an advertising channel efficient enough that for every $8 spent, you got $1/mo revenue… …and you offered two months free on an annual plan… …your marketing budget would be infinity. So, why isn’t that your goal?
longform.asmartbear.com
How annual pre-pay creates an infinite marketing budget
Dozens of founders have used this technique to transform the cash-flow of their businesses. Now it’s your turn.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 23/09/2026
Formulate a theory from your marketing data, then test it rigorously. As opposed to: Random A/B tests, followed by more random tests. “See what sticks” thoughtlessness. Why:
longform.asmartbear.com
The Pattern-Seeking Fallacy
We humans are terrible at discerning patterns from randomness, and in marketing data we unwittingly find “insights” that are actually noise. Here’s how to fix that.
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Jason Cohen @asmartbear.com · 22/09/2026
It was fun teaming up with Dan Martell to brainstorm with George Paladichuk (NaiL) on scaling AI voice both inside one big customer, and across to new customers in adjacent markets. It’s all in Smart Bear Live E07:
youtube.com
E07 w/ Dan Martell: 1 big logo won’t get him the next 10
How can George Paladichuk take his startup NaiL from 1 huge customer, to the next 100 customers?Cohost Dan Martell and I dig in: A candid working session inc…
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