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Aidan

@arandomguy641.bsky.social
365 followers 147 following 768 posts
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
I mean it is an issue but it’s an issue like how Wind Turbines killing birds is an issue. Like yeah it happens but its ultimately not that big of a problem. Plus if push comes to shove you can just burn them (though obviously reuse and downcycling would be preferred).
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
The U.K. comes to mind. It seems the world is less in a competition for first and more in a race to the bottom. Whichever society self-sabotages the least, wins.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
I mean by that time the A-4 was in vogue and you really just can't beat the A-4 in the "being cheap and lugging munitions" department.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
It's also worth mentioning the counterfactual. What if fewer militia or Russian army units defected? Even if one argues their presence wasn't critical to the uprising, denying their use to the opposition forces is still incredibly valuable.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Getting the regular or part of the regular army is critical in the opening stages. If it doesn't effect a complete coup d'etat, it buys the time to further recruit, train, and equip units which is necessary in the last stage of the conflict.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
2. Broken Back War. A lot of the best resources are expended by both sides. This is where further training and rearming occurs as the conflict stagnates. 3. Further intensification. As new units and armaments begin to accrue the intensity rises until one side or the other falls apart.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
You can generally divide these protracted conflicts (and in fact most wars) into three stages. 1. Oubreak (most relevant) where it's high intensity with just about only the materials and people on hand at the start participating. Maybe some scratch militias but these aren't very effectual.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
And yet they bought the necessary time to set the conditions for further campaigns.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Where did I ever imply they did? And again, please read the previous comment, they were not meant to be homogenous cases. The point is that to win you need a regular army. The best time to build up support in the regular army is now and losing critical positions to protest resignations is bad.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Yet you seem way more enthusiastic about murdering scientists than trying to affect these steps, even violently.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Notice how I broke up the examples instead of painting them with a broad brush. It might, just might, reflect they embody different aspects of how defections and a regular army plays into a revolutionary campaign.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
And yet they do defect, as seen by the examples given. You need to bring more than platitudes. What is the specific goal that their resignations serve and how does that compare to the potential of regular military support in an armed confrontation? Because in the latter it can be decisive.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Really, and this system can't at all be changed so the best way to handle things is to regress as a society and go all Pol Pot?
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Are you willing to kill scientists over this? It's a pretty simple yes or no question, one I have asked and one you persist on avoiding directly answering, trying to use other people's words as insulation. So I ask for clarification of your position, are you willing to kill scientists over this?
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
What happened to "setting the conditions for revolution"? What did you think that meant? Vibes, papers, essays? Here it means keeping potential revolutionaries in power and importantly not trying to shame them out of that power for marginal gain.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Does it ever occur to you that it is better to concentrate forces at specific times and places and not to winnew them away trying to fight every single battle?
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Who? Robert? He's a Podcaster. Musk? He's an asshole Billionaire. I fail to see what bearing this has on the conversation. Words have meanings. If you don't actually mean what you say maybe you should keep your mouth shut.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
So your first step before the army proves it's on our side is to remove all the dissenting elements? Genius move. One wonders at your truly peerless intellect.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
"Governor Newsom demonstrates his plan to cut all Republican politicians in half on JD Vance during a live televised broadcast."
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
There is actually a timeline longer than "tomorrow" and you need to learn how to be strategic. It's a good thing Mao never had you as an advisor because you would've insisted on fighting the nationalists and Japanese instead of forming the united front and consolidating power.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Read Robert's goddamn post. Are you willing to actually kill scientists over this? Because that's what would be required and is called for. Maybe one day you will learn to think through your opinions, what they involve and what they imply, but I doubt today will be that day.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Please explain to me how people against Trump in the military resigning is going to substantially improve the current situation. The vast majority of the repression is by the para-militaries so you are trading a potentially very valuable card for maybe an ever so slight (and temporary) loosening.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
"Well, hopefully people solve that first, because until they do I'm with Robert." You explicitly state that if it cannot be shared with everyone they should be murdered. Maybe you should pay attention to what you are actually saying rather than blindly assuming a position.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
So it's better to kill the researchers and doctors so that everyone is equally diseased than try to improve and reform things? Has it ever crossed your mind that advances in modern medicine also benefit less developed areas of the world?
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
This is ignoring the countless smaller and less small coups that have occured throughout history. The military is the center of gravity around which the state can ultimately exert violence. To want to brush it off because you think it's gauche only shows your lack of comittment.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
It's how the Soviets, Syrians, and Americans weren't crushed at the start of their revolutions. It's how Mao eventually destroyed the Nationalist Army. It was Vietnamese tank divisions, not ragtag citizens that took Saigon.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Revolutions are generally not decided by the everyday populace, they are decided by regular military units that defect. You want as many of these people in military positions as possible and to turn as many military units as you can when the time comes.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Uh yeah, it's called "modern medicine". Obviously people are working more directly on anti-aging but elements like curing diseases, sequencing and understanding DNA, etc, are a part of extending life and improving quality of life. Answer me why you felt the need to call such people "Mengeles".
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
See when you use the term "Joseph Megeles" about solving the eternal curse of mankind, I tend to think people are actually rather serious about wanting to murder scientists. You're preemptively creating a moral framing within which their murder is justified without any evidence.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
If Zelensky does that and renames a city "Trumpgrad" V Corps will be across the border before lunch.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
"Reality", buddy it isn't even a thing yet. You don't know that.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
"Umm actually he was only joking about murdering scientists."
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
That's not an intractible political problem. There are ways to deal with that outside of murdering scientists.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
"We should murder the Wright Brothers because flight will only be for the rich." "We should murder Michael Bliss because Insulin will only be for the rich." "We should murder municiple workers because indoor plumbing will only be for the rich."
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
Unironically this is the easiest way to get American support. Just jingle keys and he follows. I remain half convinced if the Ukrainians “rename” Sevastopol to Trumpgrad he’ll order V Corps over the border by that afternoon.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
The average soldier kills 3 hun using a pistol each year. This is a deceptive statistic because of Alvin York who shoots 10,000 hun a day with his 1911 and should be regarded as an outlier.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
And no they are not going to be simply ignored because at the end of the day they are a market. A very low price market but also a very large one. There will be llms and companies that appeal to this and they will be cheap or “freemium” models.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
And to get back to the original discussion, we are talking about the cost for the vast majority of users, users who will be happy with a cheap and dirty llm. Like I have previously mentioned I do not expect it to be free but for these low level users the price is not going to be very high.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
The equilibrium point for price is not determined on money saved over humans (it is already far lower), rather it is determined by how much it costs for someone else to join at a lower price. Sure companies will pay to reduce wages but they would also rather pay less to reduce those same wages.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
For most people (ie: high school students) the cheapest available will probably suffice but for entertainment companies I could see more intensive LLMs used for animated shows or whatnot where AI foibles and irregularities are easier to patch up and ignore.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
How many people actually use highly specialized prompts. At what level of use do such prompts become useful? How difficult is it to come up with new ones? The vast majority of users are your average high schooler getting help or “help” on their homework. I don’t think they care.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Even more elastic than that. Anyone can make one and for (comparatively) little capital expenditure. The question is going to be “what’s the minimum training and processing power needed to create an acceptable model”.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
They had these just after ww2. I’d need to crack open my Friedman book for exact dates. They were initially developed since a sub was less vulnerable to Kamikaze than the destroyers that had been acting as picket (and taking losses).
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
The thing is they cannot reasonably monopolize the market. Anyone with the capital can set up a model. Sure if you have more capital to burn you can make a better model but “good enough” and cheap usually wins people over more.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
The fundamental issue is that your highest tier of LLM with hundred million or more poured into training is also competing against lower tier LLMs with One to ten million in training. Sure they can jack the prices up but I don’t think those companies will survive.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
It doesn’t understand what the words mean, what the meaning of the statement as a whole is, or what the meaning of the question is, it simply picks out the optimal association. What it does have is an internet’s worth of people talking and a lot of processing power.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
I think it would be more accurate to say they can “display” complex thought. They only seem to think because they have so much data backing them up. For example a set of objects are associated and the query asks about one. The answer should then include them all.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Sure price is going to go up (like maybe a light subscription with free versions that play an ad or something) but it’s still going to be incredibly cheap.
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Aidan @arandomguy641.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
It’s depressed in that it’s often free. A lot is made out of the energy and water consumption but these really aren’t all that high (sure several times a normal search but a normal search is in the range of small fraction of a cent).
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