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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The Secret Harbour by-election result was extra-ordinary, but not the Liberal preference flows to One Nation which confirm past results that show about 70% of Liberal voters preference One Nation over Labor. Link to blog post in first response. #secretharbour antonygreen.com.au/preference-f...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Why are there no novelty candidates like Count Binface in Australia? Within reason it used to be allowed, but a protest on ballot papers by anti-Family Court activists in 1998 saw the law changed making it much harder. antonygreen.com.au/why-australi...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Victoria is today set to abolish group voting tickets (GVTs) for Legislative Council elections. It will increase the power of voter first preference votes and diminish the influence of preferences. Without GVTs the losers will be low polling parties. antonygreen.com.au/how-gvts-hav...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

The Impact on Senate Election Results of Abolishing GVTs – the Lessons for Victoria. Abolishing GVTs in 2016 ended preference harvesting and changed who gets elected by increasing the importance of votes over preferences. antonygreen.com.au/the-impact-o...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

South Australian electoral boundaries finalised for the next Federal election. The vast outback seat of Grey has been re-named O'Donoghue, but otherwise minimal change with 5 of the 10 seats retaining their existing boundaries. Less than 2% of voters change seat. antonygreen.com.au/fed2026-redi...

antonygreen.com.au

Antony Green's Election Blog

Musings on Elections and Politics

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

20 years ago the Tasmanian seat of Lyons touched the state's east, north and west coasts. After today's redistribution it is now entirely landlocked and includes a new urban corner with the inclusion of northern Hobart. My redistribution analysis at antonygreen.com.au/fed2026-redi...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

ABS statistics released today mean no change to state representation in the House at the next Federal election. Queensland falls short of gaining a 31st seat. The official determination will be made by the Electoral Commissioner in July. antonygreen.com.au/abs-populati...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

The graph below with its non-existent parties caused much mirth. But the analysis in the article has a number of faults including assertions about strong flows of Green preferences to One Nation at the SA election. antonygreen.com.au/the-financia...

antonygreen.com.au

The Financial Review’s Inaccurate Preference Analysis

One Nation’s polling surge has triggered an intense dissection of recent election results. One Nation made the final preference count at the recent Farrer by-election. One Nation also finishe…

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Haruspicy will abound next week as analysts inspect the entrails of this weekend's Nepean by-election trying to divine prospects for November's Victorian state election. And next week's Farrer by-election. #springst #nepean antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepe...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

While writs have been returned for the SA election, the discovery of an unopened absent early ballot box from Port Pirie is causing problems. The votes match the roll mark-off, with 81 for Narungga where One Nation won by 58 votes. I've just posted on the subject. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-it-tu...

antonygreen.com.au

SA2026 – it turns out the count ain’t over

Just when you thought counting was over for the SA election, it turns out another box of absent early votes has been located. The votes were cast at the Port Pirie Early Voting Centre in the electo…

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

A big win for Labor at the SA election but a warning in the result detail. Swings to Labor in Liberal and Labor marginal seats, but big swings against Labor and to One Nation in Labor's safe seats. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-huge-...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

he electoral version of "doing a Bradbury". Independent Lou Nicholson wins the South Australian seat of Finniss from fourth place after the distribution of preferences. #auspol antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-finni...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

As counting winds up for the South Australian election, it looks like fourth placed Independent candidate Lou Nicholson will win the seat of Finniss. I explain why it happened in this post. But it won't be a win from the lowest primary vote. From antonygreen.com.au

antonygreen.com.au

Antony Green's Election Blog

Musings on Elections and Politics

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Early voting going gangbusters for the SA election. With two days to go, numbers have passed total for 2022. This is first SA election where Early votes will be counted on the night. This post has the early and postal numbers plus detailed figures by district. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-track...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

88% of Green preferences flowed to Labor at the 2025 election but not by "deals". Green voters reflexively preference Labor which shows up in seats like Fremantle where the Greens didn't recommend preference to Labor but the Independent still lost. antonygreen.com.au/do-greens-vo...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

The how-to-votes are out for the SA election. Does it matter what they recommend? Check out my post from December with full detail on whether voters followed HTVs in 2022 including a link to detailed analysis of 2022 preference flows. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

A record 388 candidates to contest the lower House of Assembly at the South Australian election on 21 March. That's an average of 8.3 candidates per seat. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-close...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

s Farrer more traditionally a Liberal or National seat? I break down the last Liberal versus National contest in 2001 by local government area. But boundary changes since have added a big slice of National voting territory from the Riverina. antonygreen.com.au/farrer-a-lib...

antonygreen.com.au

Farrer – a Liberal or National Seat?

In a previous post published on Friday, I went through a detailed history of the Farrer electorate. In short, the seat was created in 1949. Until 1983 the seat was based on the southern NSW rural c…

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

The success of local Independents, the contest in Kooyong and what it tells us about where national politics is going. antonygreen.com.au/the-success-...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

One Nation finished as one of the top three candidates versus Labor and the Coalition in 25 seats last May. These seats with One Nation in the 3CP would be amongst the legitimate first targets for the party on current polling. antonygreen.com.au/one-nations-...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

As in the past, the Nationals have increased their % of Coalition seats in opposition. The collapse in Liberal seats has delivered the Nationals more power, but can National policy priorities fight ONP and help Liberals win city seats? antonygreen.com.au/here-we-go-a...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

The Coalition split and the re-emergence of One Nation. Lessons on what a 20% vote for One Nation looks like from the only other election to produce such a result, Queensland 1998. antonygreen.com.au/the-coalitio...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

My wrap of the Federal election result in Queensland. It continues to be Labor's worst state, but as in 2022, not bad enough to deny Labor victory. Labor gained seven seats including two from the Greens and Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

More party name games. The VEC has approved a name change, Companions and Pets Party now known as End Mass Migration - Reform AU. Might be a crowded field by later in the year. Though there will be no benefit from group voting tickets if they are abolished as promised. #springst

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

If the Senate were increased to 14 Senators per state in 2028, as is rumoured, the next half-Senate election would be for 8 Senators with the quota reduced to 11.1%. That would be very tempting for One Nation.

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Talk of One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce taking a NSW Senate seat from the Nationals is not correct. The NSW Coalition agreement reserves Senate spot 2 for the Nationals in 2028. It would be the third Liberal seat at risk. Unless the Coalition polls under 20%.

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

I had a few problems getting my SA Election blog post to re-publish but finally sorted it out. SA Electoral pendulum with colour coded seat maps is now working at new address antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pe...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 07/12/2025

I've updated my South Australian election pendulum article with colour coded maps of the electorates. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother? antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-... #qldpol

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor. antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr... #auspol

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change. antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...

antonygreen.com.au

Antony Green's Election Blog

Musings on Elections and Politics

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 22/03/2025

Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats. antonygreen.com.au/2025-western... #wavotes

antonygreen.com.au

2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results

This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised. Originally the post just covered changes in membe…

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...

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Antony Green @antonygreenelec.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

I've updated my #prahran and #werribee commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee. #springst www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

abc.net.au

Commentary - Prahran/Werribee by-election

Werribee by-election 2025 Commentary

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