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Anton Falco

@antonfalcowx.bsky.social
148 followers 88 following 161 posts

Likes: Tornadoes, Aurora, Wildlife, Environmental Science, Volcanoes, Iceland, Italy. Dislikes: A longer list than above. Forecasting blog: antonfalco.substack.com Photography site: www.antonfalco.com The rest: linktr.ee/antonfalco

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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Hamilton (YHM) September Summary: -Above average high & low temperatures. -Only 22% of climatology expected rainfall. -September 2nd Severe Weather Outbreak. -Well above average Pacific Hurricane Season. antonfalco.substack.com/p/hamiltons-...
antonfalco.substack.com
Hamilton's September 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Warmer Than Average, Significantly Below Average Rainfall. Elsewhere: Very Active Pacific Hurricane Season.
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I cover the synoptic meteorology and potential outcomes for severe weather that will be possible across Southern Ontario for September 2nd, 2026. Risks include: damaging winds, hail, torrential rain and a more conditional risk for tornadoes either embedded within a squall line youtu.be/FIHL4QbN-HE
youtu.be
Severe Weather Outbreak Likely For Southern Ontario: September 2nd, 2026
YouTube video by Anton's Weather & Photography
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Hamilton (YHM) August Summary: -Right on average high & low temperatures (again). -Exceeding double the average monthly rain -More flash flooding just outside city bounds. -Lunar Eclipse & Weather Event Coverage antonfalco.substack.com/p/hamiltons-...
antonfalco.substack.com
Hamilton's August 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Near Average Temperatures, Double Expected Rainfall. Lunar & Solar Eclipses.
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I discuss the severe weather setup and tornado risk, within the north west flow, for Southern Ontario and the US over the next few days. antonfalco.substack.com/p/severe-wea...
antonfalco.substack.com
Severe Weather Risk For Southern Ontario & New York State - August 31st Through September 2nd, 2026
Severe weather in Southern Ontario, especially in late August and early September, isn’t uncommon, but the main weather related stories, through July and August this year, have been recurring flooding...
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
With Environment Canada expected to switch to a polygon style warning system soon, I discuss what it is and the weaknesses of the previous system (that I'm sure many Canadians have personally dealt with over the years). antonfalco.substack.com/p/environmen...
antonfalco.substack.com
Environment Canada To Switch To Polygon Based Warning System For Severe Thunderstorms & Tornadoes Soon
If implemented well, it would be a welcome change from the current system
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
I discuss the meteorology behind the second flash flooding event across parts of Southern Ontario in 14 days. The synoptic setup was a bit different than before, but more widespread across the day. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
The Second Flash Flooding Event In 14 Days Hits Parts Of Southern Ontario
St. Catharines and areas east of Hamilton, Ontario saw 4+ inches of rain in a day. For some areas, the second time in 14 days.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
It isn’t quite Déjà vu to July 21st, but yet another high moisture, training storm event, tracking SW to NE, produces heavy rain in similar areas as before. My area saw about 1.5 inches of rain in an hour, but the bullseye zone seems to be near Simcoe.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Hamilton (YHM) July Summary: -Right on average high & low temperatures. -Below average rain month, but near record flash flooding just outside city bounds. -Wildfire smoke from northern Ontario invades the area mid month open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's July 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Near Average Highs & Lows, Barely Dodging Major Flash Flooding, Wildfire Smoke Blankets Region
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
I discuss the meteorology behind the deluge of rainfall east of Hamilton, Ontario yesterday that dropped 100 mm+ (over 4 inches of rain) in just over an hour. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Localized Flash Flooding: Four Inches Of Rainfall In An Hour Outside Hamilton, Ontario
Areas east of Hamilton, Ontario saw 4+ inches of rain in about an hour on July 21st.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I discuss the severe weather risk for Southern & Eastern Ontario for tomorrow: July 18th, 2026. A few factors (ongoing convection, lingering smoke, energy return) may impact the peak of event potential. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Severe Weather Risk For Southern & Eastern Ontario: July 18, 2026
Primary concern of damaging winds, but tornado risk is not out of the question
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
I discuss the synoptic overview of the wildfire smoke invading the Greater Toronto area and parts of the northeast, with air quality impacted for several more days. youtu.be/yNluspn7DOo
youtu.be
Wildfire Smoke Invading Ontario & The Northeast. July 15th, 2026
YouTube video by Anton Falco Photography
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Northeast seasonal allergy sufferers thinking they're out of the worst of it after hitting July. July:
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I wanted to give my first video forecast for the Quebec/Maine severe weather risk later today. Tornadoes are a concern among discrete storms later today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBZu...
youtube.com
Severe Weather Forecast For July 14 2026: Southern Quebec & Maine
YouTube video by Anton Falco Photography
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Hamilton (YHM) June Summary: -Right on average high & low temperatures. -Very wet month, with one day carrying 52% of the monthly rainfall. -Very active June for tornadoes in the US. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's June 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Average Temperatures, Well Above Average Rainfall. Very Active Tornado Month In US.
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
I discuss the hot and muggy conditions expected across the northeast and Great Lakes this week (June 29th through July 5th). I cover why this is occurring and the severe weather risk that will likely be around much of this week. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Building East Coast Ridge Means Hot, Muggy Conditions & Severe Weather Risk for Great Lakes And Northeast This Week
Ridge riding storms may be a risk much of this week, but predictability is tough.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
I discuss the Glencoe, Ontario tornado from yesterday (June 25th, 2026). I cover the synoptic setup and any mesoscale interactions that may have influenced tornadogenesis. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
The Synoptic Setup Of The Tornado Near Glencoe, Ontario. June 25th, 2026
A sneaky setup that has produced tornadoes here in the past produces yet again.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
I forgot to post this here yesterday. The current conditional risk mentioned yesterday is producing a tornado warned storm near Wyoming, Ontario. The interaction of the north and south cells will be of interest in the next few scans.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
In this article, I discuss the next two days of severe weather expected across the Plains of the US, with yet another conditional risk in Illinois on Sunday. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Déjà Vu: Similar Areas Under Threat For The Third Time In 10 Days
For the 3rd time in 10 days, Illinois will be at conditional risk for severe weather.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
In this article, I discuss the active severe weather pattern expected for the next two days across the central Plains of the US, with emphasis on Wednesday. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
More Severe Weather In Familiar Areas: Iowa, Illinois & Indiana. June 16th and 17th.
Yet another active week ahead
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
In order: -cell merger -left split sheds -tornadogenesis The smaller cells interacting with the right side FFD may mean upscaling or mass growth. We'll see in a few scans.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
In this article, I discuss the active severe weather pattern expected across the northern US and Canadian Plains this week.
open.substack.com
Severe Weather Pattern Expected Ahead: June 8th Through At Least The 11th
Tornado and MCS wind risk for much of the Northern Plains this week
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
I rag on Canadian radar velocities regularly, but S Band radars are so good at picking out obvious target boundaries. You rarely need satellite to confirm.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Hamilton (YHM) May Summary: -Below average high & low temperatures. -Beginning and end dry stretches, middle was rainy. -Very quiet May for tornadoes in the US. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's May 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Below Average Temperatures, Above Average Rainfall. Quiet Tornado Month In US
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
In this article, I discuss the QLCS tornadoes that occurred in Southern Ontario, what they are, and the conditions from the May 19th event. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Multiple QLCS Tornadoes Form Across Southern Ontario. May 19, 2026
Two tornadoes and an EF1 downburst
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
It’ll be a low risk due to likely linear nature, but highest chances of a quick spin up lie in zone with highest 3CAPE + maximized low level shear. SW flow will kill boundary layer energy near the cold lakes and maximize any discrete storm with highest residence time in best zone.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
It’s that time of peak near lake temperature difference. You can ride your bike to temperatures nearly 40F less.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
In this article, I discuss the weather pattern shift expected to bring much warmer weather to the northeast and severe weather across the Southern Plains and the midwest US. I will break down days individually if the expected synoptic parameters increase further. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Weather Pattern Shift: Severe Weather Outbreaks Possible Early Next Week In US & Major Warm Up For Great Lakes
Major changes from what we've seen up to now in May
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Reposted by Anton Falco
Northern Tornadoes Project 🇨🇦 @westernuntp.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
It's Emergency Preparedness Week, and your help is needed on a related letter-writing campaign. ECCC has decided to shut down its long-standing radar research program. This affects severe weather warnings, and the work of the NTP and its partners. Details here: actionnetwork.org/letters/reve...
actionnetwork.org
Reverse the Loss of ECCC Severe Weather Radar Science
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) recently disbanded its High Impact Weather Research section that included radar research. The radar research group was tasked with ensuring that our new $1...
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Hamilton (YHM) April Summary: -Well above average high & low temperatures. -Very rainy (17 days of rain). -Little snow (as expected). -Many tornadoes in the US. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's April 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Very Warm, Very Wet. High Tornado Totals Observed Stateside
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
Perhaps another interesting day of cell mergers
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
I discuss the impact of nudgers and convection on the Braman & Enid tornadoes in Oklahoma yesterday. I was impressed that two strong tornadoes, from two different supercells, gave a similar look, influenced by nudger/mergers, within an hour of travel distance. antonfalco.substack.com/p/similariti...
antonfalco.substack.com
Similarities Abound: A Mesoscale Meteorological Comparison Of The Two Tornadoes In Northern Oklahoma - April 23rd, 2026
A similar environment and mesoscale interactions led to two similar looking tornadoes of likely similar strength.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Two violent tornadoes (one in far northern OK and the other near Enid, below) looking nearly identical to each other, formed on nearly identical processes; with nudger convection from the SW hitting and influencing the RFD of the already tornadic supercells.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Hamilton (YHM) March Summary: -Above average high & low temperatures. -Some frigid nights. -Well above average monthly rainfall, but below average snowfall. Apologies on the delay, an unexpected shingles outbreak on the right side of my face had shut me down until recently.
open.substack.com
Hamilton's March 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Very Rainy, Above Normal Highs & Lows
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Hamilton (YHM) February Summary: -Below average high & low temperatures. -Some frigid nights. -Below average monthly snowfall & rainfall. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's February 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Below Average Temperatures, Some Frigid Nights & A Break From Snowfall
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Hamilton (YHM) January Summary: -Below average high & low temperatures -Below average monthly snowfall. -Major Toronto lake effect snow event open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's January 2026 Climatology vs Observed: Frigid Temperatures & Tons Of Lake Effect Snow For The Greater Toronto Area
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
I discuss the Lake Effect snow event of January 25th that impacted the west side of Lake Ontario: Toronto, Oakville and Burlington. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Analysis Of Toronto's Lake Effect Snow Event Of January 25th. Upwards Of 60cm Downtown
Before we get into the analysis, if you want a more in depth breakdown on the meteorology of how lake effect snow forms, follow this link. It will give you the expected parameter breakdowns and condit...
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Synoptic snow is largely coming to end across S ON. Scarborough/Toronto are mercifully out of the ripper band as the wind shift will send it further south. Oakville is in the heaviest part now, but Burlington, Hamilton and areas east of there may get some of it before tomorrow.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
I discuss the arctic air mass intrusion and impact of the winter storm across the US and Southern Ontario. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Arctic Air Intrusion & Major Winter Storm For Southern US & Northeast: January 23-25th
Snow and freezing rain across much of the US and Canada.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
YHM's Yearly Weather Summary: -Above average yearly highs and lows (lower than 2024) -Major lake effect snow in snow belts -Well below average precipitation totals (good storms) -Near climo Great Lakes ice coverage -Alberta visit & 4 Screech Owlets open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Hamilton (YHM) December Summary: -Below average high & low temperatures -Well above average monthly snowfall. -Notable ice storm in surround areas (me) -Major Lake effect snow banding off Lake Huron several times this month (same as November) open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's December 2025 Climatology vs Observed: Colder & Snowier Than Average. Ice Storm Recap, Lake Effect Snow & California Tule Fog
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
One question I wrote about yesterday was the quantity of freezing rain for the GTA/Hamilton area before the change to rain. East of Hamilton, we’re already seeing several mm of accretion (some was from Boxing Day). The longer this lasts, the more problematic the winds may be.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
I discuss the upcoming strong synoptic storm that will present a myriad of risks: strong winds, freezing rain risk, heavy rain, flash freeze, lake effect snow, arctic air intrusion & the timing of it all. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Strong Synoptic Storm With Widespread Impacts Expected: January 28th Through The 30th Across Ontario
Parts of the Great Lakes will see freezing rain, heavy rain, strong winds and perhaps even snow with the arctic air trailing the low
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
I discuss the arctic air mass intrusion and Alberta Clippers expected to run through the Great Lakes into early January. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Incoming Arctic Air Mass For The US Northern Plains & The Northeast Headed Into January
Cold to warm, then back to cold for the Great Lakes
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Hamilton (YHM) November Weather Summary: -Below average high & low temperatures -Well above average monthly snowfall (nearly double) & Top 10 highest November daily snowfall. -Major Lake effect snow banding off Lake Huron several times this month. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's November Climatology vs Observed: Below Average Temperatures & 10th Highest November Snow Total Since 1959
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
When a few inches of snow falls before the leaves are finished falling
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
In addition to the synoptic snow, parts of Hamilton and Grimsby area are likely seeing some lake effect enhancement with the NE near surface flow from Lake Ontario. Near shore may be closer to wet snow/rain with the warm lake and further away from the lake is snow (me).
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
A cold burst for much of eastern Canada and the US and potentially snow this weekend for the Great Lakes. I cover it here. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
A Far Reaching Cold Wave & Potentially Snow For The Great Lakes Region This Weekend (November 9th Through 11th)
An early taste of winter
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
Hamilton (YHM) October Weather Summary: -Higher than average high temperatures (pushing record early month) -Warm & Dry streak is over -Below average monthly rain streak continues (though alleviated elsewhere in Ontario) -Hurricane Melissa Breakdown open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Hamilton's October Climatology vs Observed: Welcome Rain For Southern Ontario, Hurricane Melissa Breakdown
Comparing weather normals vs daily readings from Hamilton airport (YHM) and brief reports on weather related events across the world.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Right on time. Buffalo will dodge the snow this time, but the lakes are plenty warm and more troughs will come.
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Anton Falco @antonfalcowx.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Lake Effect Rain (yes, you read that right) expected for the familar snow belt areas as this Fall setup emulates the snow producing setups come Wednesday and Thursday. I explain the hows and whys. open.substack.com/pub/antonfal...
open.substack.com
Pattern Shift: Lake Effect Rain (Not a Typo) For The Usual Lake Effect Snow Regions
If you’ve been following my monthly Hamilton weather breakdowns, you’ll know much of Southern Ontario (and especially Eastern Ontario) has watched ridging take hold around here most of the summer and ...
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