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The net-transfer in the first 243-days of fiscal-2026 is +$40B (+2.5%) more than last year.

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Fund-flows, net transfers, and nominal spending are all higher year-over-year, indicating strong underlying market liquidity.

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Bullish sentiment has jumped above average, acting as a contrarian indicator ahead of mid-September SPX weakness.

SPX is poised for short-term strength over the next two weeks, driven by positive fund-flows and supportive liquidity models.

Hair-on-fire over a mistaken belief.

All four major fund-flow metrics are higher year-over-year, supporting a bullish outlook for the SPX into fiscal year-end.

The market is being pressured by the Geopolitical situation (the failed "smash-and-grab" Iranian war), but the fund-flows continue to put upward pressure on the market.

The net-transfer in the first 209-days of fiscal-2026 is $27B(+2.1%) more than last year.

Jim Stewartson (Mind War on Substack) has written a piece that explains the Geopolitical mess that is holding the market back even though the fund-flows are bullish.

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Now that the June tax-take has been returned

We are not at the top of the bull market yet.

big increase from last year

The June tax-take removed $140B from the private sector, and the SPX has stalled as expected (pink-ovals, below).

The current bull market is entering its most lucrative and speculative phase, driven by FOMO and exponential price growth.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) experienced a significant net drain of $87B from private bank accounts due to the June 15/26 tax-take.

Greed and Gullibility

The herd got spooked on Friday, but the market is not about to go over the proverbial cliff just yet.

Fund-Flows

In case there is any doubt that Elon is anything but a grifter who sells science fiction cartoon stories:

The net-transfer in the first 156-days of fiscal-2026 is -$81B (-9%) less than last year.

Quarterly interest payments from reserves to the private sector typically precede SPX pullbacks, followed by subsequent rallies.

The HY-spread has an inverse correlation with the SPX.

The 20-day average net-drain (blue curve below) has peaked and is now improving (blue-arrow).

Fund-Flows (fiscal-year)

I'm not chasing this market.

Both the stock market and the real estate market are cyclical.

In the last seven trading-days, $383B has been removed from private bank accounts.

The stock market went on a counter-trend rally during last week’s tax-take; the SPX made new highs even though $300B was drained from private bank accounts during the week. We still expect a pullback,...

Fund-Flows

Money is the fundamental driver of the stock market, so it is important to understand monetary operations.

Last year during tax season, Trump was slapping the economy with tariffs.

Criminals are using religious sects for their own purpose; to enrich themselves and avoid prosecution for corruption.

The net-transfers, although lower than last year, are increasing as the mid-March to mid-April tax-take approaches.