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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

the mass public. I call this idea ‘demographic determinism.’ In the link below you’ll find the overview, description, table of contents, and pre-order link. I’ll be available to give book talks mid-July through December 2026. Feel free to reach out! global.oup.com/academic/pro...

global.oup.com

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Overall, I show that recurrent political messaging on the threat posed by the majority-minority flip, or ‘the big flip’, sync with longstanding historical views of race in the U.S. These together drive deterministic views about the future of the country that fuel democratic erosion across

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

The book charts the early historical development of projected ideas of racial demographic change in the U.S., its growing role pertinence to party politics in the 21st century, and how the weaponization of ideas of the changing racial demography of the U.S. work to radicalize parts of the public.

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Hey y'all, my book The Big Flip: Racial Demographic Change and the Future of American Democracy is going to be published by Oxford University Press on June 3! It's been officially published online as of yesterday!

Cover with US Capitol building, people in a line to vote, American flag. Book title reads: The Big Flip: Racial Demographic Change and the Future of American Democracy

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

I think so, yuuup! I will say, too, that when we provide a nudge on national Hispanic growth, we see White fight sentiment generated in places with local growth (study 4). But it helps to add to the story here, as we note Also another piece of mine on this www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

cambridge.org

Anti-Black Political Violence and the Historical Legacy of the Great Replacement Conspiracy | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core

Anti-Black Political Violence and the Historical Legacy of the Great Replacement Conspiracy - Volume 23 Issue 1

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

7) PS, if you're curious, reach out to me about post-2024 Election continuation of these analyses. I have a LOT to say, and have even validated the efficacy of White fight sentiment with more recent studies.

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

6) Check our sections on "Addressing Caveats and Drawbacks." We unpack quite a bit there.

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

5) Black growth on county levels at base drives up White fight sentiment through the prime. Crucially though, when the prime is paired with a discussion of Hispanic growth on a national level, we see upticks of White fight sentiment among White Americans in counties with Hispanic growth too.

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

4) Consideration of national racial demographic change, NOT state level, is what generates White fight sentiment. We identify this through a similarly worded prime on state-level changes relative to national-level changes.

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

3) We build off of Gordon Allport's Scale of Prejudice and Discrimination to define the concept.

White Flight and White Fight within Allport’s Prejudice Scale. Description: Allport’s Prejudice scale with identification of White flight and White fight within the scale.

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

2) Similar conditions that motivated flight now motivate fight:

“There goes the neighborhood” is a historical expression of White reactions to local Black increases, explaining discriminatory reactions in the form of “defended neighborhoods” (56) and for some eventual flight from those locales (57). We ultimately expect that nationally generalized ideas of local demographic changes will cause a similar, but wider-scale reaction along the lines of “there goes the nation.”

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

1) Overall, we find that White Americans who live in counties with White American decline or Black American increase *specifically* become more violent and antidemocratic when they receive a simple prime about racial demographic change. We define this as "White fight sentiment."

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Andrew Thompson @andrewifethompson.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

My piece has been published in PNAS today!!! "The importance of local racial demographic changes in democratic erosion in the mass American public" www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.... A few takeaways...

pnas.org

PNAS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...

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Reposted by Andrew Thompson

CantlonLab @cantlonlab.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

“We must reject the coercive use of public research funding.” Over 150 college & university leaders from big and small institutions have signed a joint statement defending the right to speak “without fear of retribution, censorship, or deportation.” 🇺🇸 www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...

aacu.org

A Call for Constructive Engagement | AAC&U

A Call for Constructive Engagement

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Reposted by Andrew Thompson

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 07/11/2024

so far the only explanation i've seen that doesn't smack of "if only she'd listen to me she would have won" is "global discontent with incumbents because of inflation and post-pandemic malaise + toxic information environments"

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