iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Taiwan lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.14% from 3.29% due to concerns over US trade policies and domestic budget cuts. Despite these headwinds, exports are projected to grow by 7.08% in 2025, driven by demand for tech exports related to AI.

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Hong Kong is facing its longest string of fiscal deficits in two decades, with a projected shortfall of $12.9 billion this year. The government is considering raising taxes on high earners, capping a transport subsidy for seniors, and legalizing basketball sports betting to increase capital.

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

Completions of multifamily houses are expected to drop from 600k in 2024 to under 400k this year and next as the average time it takes to build increases

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Forecast nosedived on Friday after a pessimistic consumer confidence data print last week combined with slowing consumer spending

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

According to Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok, the combined impact of DOGE and tariffs will create a mild, temporary economic shock, leading to slight increases in inflation and modest decreases in GDP.

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

Expectations for June rate reductions have risen back to nearly 75%, after dipping to a mere 34% two weeks prior.

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

Us imports have surged in January ahead of Trump's tariffs being implemented

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

While foreign direct investment into Peru and Mexico has grown over the past two years, it still lags behind their pre-pandemic average and peer econoomies.

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

Global foreign direct investment grew to $41 trillion in 2023 (+4.4% y/y; + $1.75). FDI between advanced economies grew by 3.6% ($880 million), while investments from AEs to emerging markets rose by 7.6% ($538 million). The US maintained its position as the top FDI destination.

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

The probability of a recession in the next 12 months for the US, UK, and Euro Area has ticked up slightly over recent weeks

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Investors are snapping up Latin American assets, betting on potential business friendly political shifts in the Brazilian and Mexican2026 elections YTD equity performance - Venezuela 62% - Colombia 17% - Chile 9% - Mexico 6% - Ecuador 2% - Brazil 2%

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Europe has been in dire need to create a security market union

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Kenya's gross public debt fell by 2% to $84.6 billion (as of December) due an appreciating shilling, which rose 21% last year

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 15/02/2025

Great waterfall chart showing how the fiscal deficit has changed between 2017 and 2024 Unsurprisingly non-discretionary spending accounts for 2/3 of total spending

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 15/02/2025

In the past 30 years Chinese manufacturing as a share of the world has risen from 5% to 32% making it difficult for companies/countries to break ties and reroute supply chains

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Goods imports make up 11% of US GDP and 43% of US imports come from Canada, Mexico, and China Therefore 5% of US GDP is directly impacted by tariffs on our largest trading partners

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

Ah this is very useful! And this chart is amazing - suppliers are putting fake destinations on EU customs declarations Also expands on "dual use" goods from the video game console example, but to your point, the range of dual use sanctions still has limited effect

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Straightforward trend of less "unicorns" (private startup that's achieved a $1 billion valuation) during periods of high interest rates

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Only 6% of companies report using AI for regular production today (top chart), even though the types of work tasks automatable by Gen AI would result in several thousand dollars of cost savings per worker (bottom chart) The (good?) thing is most industries expect to expand adoption in 6 months+

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Thank you for helping me get to 1,000 followers! 🥳 Hope to continue sharing insightful international macrofinance until we reach 2k!

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

European stocks have outperformed equities in the US for January, benefiting from solid earnings and on speculation the region will be spared from immediate US tariffs The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is up 6.6%, their biggest monthly gain in two years, while the S&P 500 is up 3.2%

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Investors are struggling to reach consensus on DeepSeek's disruption to Magnificent 7 stocks

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Even during the DeepSeek AI disruptions this week and after the NASDAQ fell nearly 3% on Monday, its largest ETF saw its largest one-day inflow since 2021 of more than $4.3 billion By sector, technology ETFs easily saw the largest amount of investment flows in January

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

While US household debt has been on the rise and delinquency rates for credit cards have been climbing, the ratio of deb-service payments to disposable (post-tax) income remains around the 2019 level, a period when interest rates were much lower, showing that US consumer resilience is very real

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Mentioning of "tariffs" during corporate earnings calls have been skyrocketing since the outcome of the US election

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Benin has successfully improved their domestic revenue mobilization with the assistance of digitalization Their tax-to-GDP ratio increased by more than 2 percentage points over the last two years, exceeding the average improvement of other countries within this same timeframe

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Switzerland's central bank president is expecting inflation to remain low this year, potentially going negative in some months, although this isn't a large concern since they target inflation in the medium-term Chart shows normality of month-over-month inflation dipping below 0% going back to 2016

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Since there's interest in this, we're seeing broad market reaction, including in the dollar, 10yr Treasury, S&P 500, and even a jump in rate expectations for December All happening around the 2pm statement release and 2:30pm press conference

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Summary of central bank decisions today - US held at 4.50% - Canada cut 25bps - Sweden cut 25bps - Brazil hiked 100bps - Georgia held at 8% All in-line with expectations

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Look at these wild swings after the statement was released and after JPowell clarified the first paragraph changes were textual and had no real meaning Markets believed the omission of "progressing towards...2% objective" means inflation is worsening, but this was not the case

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist notes that the current US economic context is strong and rate as strong GDP growth and low unemployment has only occurred 6% of the time historically

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

The ECB's 4Q bank lending survey shows renewed net tightening of credit standards for enterprises from 0% to 7%, above bank's 4% expectations amid rising risk perceptions (left panel) Political uncertainty in Germany and France drove the overall trend (right panel)

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Surveyed analysts unanimously expect a rate hold by the FOMC today at 2:30pm EST while option-implied markets are pricing in 1.7% of a 25bps cut as the Fed's preferred inflation measure remains above target

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Economists at Morgan Stanley estimate while potential GDP this year stands at 2.5%, they only expect a 1.9% growth rate as falling net migration to the US lowers population growth

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Over 80% of Obamacare applications are from "red states"

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

The EU-wide poverty rate in 2024 was at 16.2% (71.7 million people) Among the most impoverished regions were French Guiana (53%), Calabria, IT (40.6%), and Sicily, IT (38%). Among the least impoverished were Bucureşti-Ilfov, Romania (2.1%), Bolzano, IT (3.1%), and East Flanders, Belgium (5.4%)

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

US equity speculative option volume is rising

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Private credit is squeezing its way into mainstream investment allocations

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Worth plotting Nvidia’s single-day $600 billion loss to certain countries GDP

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Have been avoiding NYT's The Daily for weeks since they can't seem to cover other important things going on in the world

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

UK employment figures fell further-than-expected in December to -47k vs -8k expected, their largest decline since 2020

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Indian equities fell to its weakest level since the June amid $5.4 billion in foreign outflows this month Weak corporate earnings combined with worries about India's growth outlook have weighted on the Nifty 50 Index, which is down 13% since its recent September high

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Although the Brazilian real fell 21% last year, higher rates amid stubborn inflation is deterring bearish speculators and improving their carry trade premium The local currency's carry-to-vol ratio is now the highest among major EM currencies, despite recent volatility in late December

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Economists at Goldman Sachs are estimating the size of tariff evasion under multiple conditions (see chart) Tariffs can be avoided in three ways: 1. Shipping goods through another country 2. Underreporting the value of products 3. Mislabeling them as similar goods with lower duty rates

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Mexican inflation slowed more than expected in the first half of January increasing the odds of another rate cut in early February, but analysts are divided whether Banxico will cut by 25 or 50bps Year-over-year 3.96% from 3.99% vs 3.75% expected

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Brazilian inflation slowed much less than expected in the first half of January, cementing expectations for a 100bps hike on Wednesday Year-over-year 4.5% vs 4.36% expected from 4.71% Month-over-month (chart) 0.11% vs -0.2% from 0.34%

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

For the first time on record, the majority of all trading in US stocks are now consistently occurring off major exchanges and are over-the-counter, on alternative trading systems, trade reporting facilities, electronic communication networks, and dark pools

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Andrew Antonino Ferrante @andrewaferrante.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Canada seems to be below at 1.37% in 2024 www.nato.int/nato_static_...

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