Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 15hHegseth et ses purges sont évidemment graves, mais le fait est que sa guerre contre la bureaucratie du DoD, il la perd 18 à 0. Pendant qu’il fait des pompes avec les cadets, les lifers du Pentagone ricanent. Pour réformer le DoD, il faut un comptable sourcilleux, pas un chroniqueur tatoué. 012
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Note this detail: one of Russia 1st intention is to cut 🇺🇦 from external power supply. Could explain the hacking of Polish utilities last year. 2 powerlines bring Polish electricity to UA. Maybe they wanted to disrupt 🇺🇦 main power backup to supplement the air campaign? www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/w...nytimes.comRussia Is Planning Its Most Powerful Blow Yet to Try to Freeze UkraineUkraine showed European partners what it said were intercepted Russian plans to cut off major cities from power, heat and water this winter. 002
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026As the cyber risks of 🇨🇳 EV garner more attention, a broader challenge arises: Western militaries are integrating a growing number of smart/electrified vehicles, which are also digitally vulnerable. The issue is not just "Made in China", it’s connectivity itself. warontherocks.com/power-and-te...warontherocks.comPower and Tension: The Cyber Security Problems of Military ElectrificationWhat would it take for someone to hack a tank? Modern Western militaries may well be about to find out. The militaries of the United States, Germany, 010
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026"The hackers are accused of stealing academic journals, theses, dissertations, and electronic books, targeting data across dozens of fields. […] The stolen documents were given to the government of 🇮🇷 and were sold through two websites to universities in the country" therecord.media/iran-montene...therecord.mediaIranian accused of hacking American universities extradited from MontenegroAn Iranian national accused by the U.S. of taking part in dozens of breaches involving the theft of academic data and intellectual property has been extradited from Montenegro. 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026So… - Option 1: law enforcement redirected resources, put in extra hours, and luckily caught the guy shortly after the whole FBI leak shitstorm - Option 2: the guy was identified long ago, investigators were patiently building a broader case, but the current shitstorm forced their hand 1/ 122
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026A reminder that economic espionage, when done well, can have a huge impact. I wonder what a similar study, 40 years from now, will find about 🇨🇳. The resources they’ve put into it (and the degree of integration they’ve reached) dwarves East Germany many times over. www.reuters.com/business/eas...reuters.comEast German espionage raised GDP by 7.4% in late 1980s, study findsEast Germany's extensive Cold War economic espionage in the 1970s and 1980s lifted its overall economic output by 7.4% at the end of the 1980s, according to a study by the Rockwool Foundation Berlin... 010
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026#EpicFury À l’instar des Patriots et des ATACMS, les stocks d’armes cyber US commencent aussi à s’assécher. De fait, ces outils sont “périssables”: au fil des cyberopérations 🇺🇸, les Iraniens repèrent les failles logicielles exploitées, et patch leurs systèmes… 1/ breakingdefense.com/2026/09/cybe...breakingdefense.com'Cyber magazine' can run out 'pretty damn quick' in modern conflict: Admiral - Breaking DefenseIn the wake of public debates about the health of physical US munitions, a senior Navy official said the "cyber magazine" isn't infinite either. 144
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Very significant. War games have shown that, if 🇨🇳 imposes a naval quarantine, energy (not food) would be the first thing to run out. The possibility of Taiwan holding on a bit longer if isolated (say, long enough for a distant ally to arrive in force) could change Beijing strategic calculus… 011
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026I hope one day people realize that this whole concept is, ultimately, based on *one sentence* from Thucydides 650 pages volume. Not a detailed, repeated argument. One isolated sentence. Allison then twisted the historical record to claim some sort of pattern. The trap is a narrative, not a theory. 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026On rappellera que la Pologne est le principal fournisseur de terminaux Starlink aux forces armées ukrainiennes… 🤔 032
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026ShinyHunters, un groupe cybercriminel, aurait mis la main sur les info personnelles de milliers d’agents du FBI. Parmi eux figureraient notamment des officiers de contre-espionnage travaillant sur la 🇨🇳 et la 🇷🇺 , ou encore des membres de l’unité de piratage du FBI. www.reuters.com/world/hacked...reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: Hacked FBI data has sensitive information about employees’ intelligence rolesFBI data allegedly stolen by the hacking group ShinyHunters carries granular detail about scores of bureau officials’ job assignments, including sensitive work against Chinese spies, Russian intellig... 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Mustang Panda, a major 🇨🇳 APT group, continues to target the shipping sector intensively. At ESET we’ve even seen them deploy malware on cargo ships themselves. I worked on the case a bit and the truth is: the ultimate purpose of the whole thing is not quite clear… 😬 www.politico.eu/article/chin...politico.euChinese hackers targeted shipping in at least seven EU countries, cyber agency reportsThe China-based Mustang Panda group represents a “significant threat” to EU organizations, the ENISA said. 011
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026« Trump’s 2nd term has brought about an aggressive reaffirmation of US interests in Latin America, which threatens various 🇨🇳 investments throughout the region […]. We suspect that FamousSparrow’s activities are intended to help China better monitor the reaction of local governments to US pressures » 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Undersea cables are the definition of a strategic headache: super important, super hard to defend, super easy to damage. The logical response should be to aim for greater resilience. Well, guess what? There’s currently a grand total of 22 repair ships in service globally… 🫠 033
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Que la ‘guerre hybride’ soit devenu un piège conceptuel politiquement malsain, c’est certain. Mais ne pas oublier que le concept était problématique depuis longtemps déjà. Pour rappel, il a été consacré à l’origine par Frank Hoffman… *en 2007* pour parler des nlles tactiques du Hezbollah au 🇱🇧 ! 1/ 111
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 01/09/2026The announced countermeasures are good, but they’re a one-off. The broader issue at hand is re-establishing a strategic grammar, in which 🇷🇺 understands that certain actions will systematically result in a certain dose of pain. How about we say: for each sabotage, we’ll seize a shadow fleet vessel? 011
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Leaving aside the sheer stupidity of it all, how do these things actually happen? Some minion in the White House is specifically tasked with pressuring Google? Does Google have a special red phone for presidential whims? Or do they just do it out of their own will, as a show of obedience? 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 30/08/2026Counterintuitively, environmental disasters are among the CCP’s top concerns in terms of social stability: they mobilize people around an inherently non-ideological topic, which state propaganda cannot easily dismiss as unpatriotic or Western-inspired. Remember Chernobyl. www.bbc.com/news/article...bbc.comTibet-Nepal floods: Shocking footage isn't being shown in China - and we know little about victims thereSome of the most dramatic footage from the deadly flash flooding is hidden from public view in China. 110
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 30/08/2026Interesting time to be alive: on commence à voir des employés de l’appareil de défense US offrir leur service à des agences de renseignement européennes, tant ils désapprouvent la politique de l’administration actuelle. (Le FBI ne les attend pas moins au tournant…) www.justice.gov/opa/pr/forme...justice.govFormer U.S. Government Employee Pleads Guilty to Attempting to Provide Classified Information to Foreign GovernmentNathan Vilas Laatsch, 29, of Alexandria, Virginia, a former IT specialist for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), pleaded guilty yesterday to transmission of national defense information to a forei... 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Les hackers du régime iranien ont maintenant ciblé + de 100 stations de traitement d’eau en sol 🇺🇸. Ça peut sembler anecdotique, mais ça esquisse un changement de paradigme: le « homeland » n’est plus totalement immunisé des contrecoups des aventures militaires US. techcrunch.com/2026/08/26/c...techcrunch.comCISA confirms hackers targeted over 100 US water systems during July | TechCrunchThe federal cyber agency's warning comes amid a wave of suspected Iran-backed cyberattacks targeting critical water systems across the United States. 012
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Fun fact: one of the guys Ratcliffe met in Moscow, FSB director Alexander Bortnikov, has been in office for *18 years* now. It’s more than Yuri Andropov, the longest-serving KGB chairman. That’s pure meritocracy of course, no intelligence failure in Russia in the last 18 years. 033
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Acrimonie transatlantique au maximum, stocks de munitions US au plus bas, les forces 🇺🇸 le pied coincé dans le Golfe, des Européens encore mal organisés mais en train de remonter en puissance. Comme Robert Jervis l’a montré: bcp de décisions fatidiques résultent d’une fenêtre d’opportunité perçue… 002
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Today, if you’re an intelligence agency trying to assess US intentions, or what latest US intel says on a specific issue, all you have to do is identify a few Polymarket accounts belonging to Trump’s inner circle, and look at how they bet. www.reuters.com/business/fin...reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research findsMore than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable... 0117
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Donc la guerre hybride va maintenant du bête graffiti sur un mur jusqu’à l’usage de drone explosif contre des installations stratégiques. Depuis 10 ans, on ne cesse d’étirer le concept pour y faire entrer des actes tjrs + graves, sans jamais définir où il s’arrête. Ce n’est plus tenable. 023
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Since 2013, a group of Iranian state-sponsored hackers has conducted a massive campaign of scientific espionage, targeting more than 170 Western universities (this includes the Silent Librarian & Cobalt Dickens campaigns). The US just indicted *17 members* of the plot www.justice.gov/opa/pr/17-ir...justice.gov17 Iranians Charged with Conducting Massive Cyber Theft Campaign on Behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Other Iranian Entities 010
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 19/08/2026A perfect storm is brewing: midterms are approaching, Trump has eviscerated CISA, and Iranian state-sponsored hackers are on the hunt for high-payoff targets. Cherry on top: based on the current polls, some people may see that as the perfect excuse to eventually contest the results… 🇺🇸🗳️ 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 17/08/2026So, four Chinese-speaking students were arrested with a GRU-style arsenal on Canadian soil, and no one knows what the hell this is about. 👀 www.thebureau.news/p/four-accus...thebureau.newsFour Accused in Western University Explosives Case Now Face 31 Counts, Including Possession of TNT and SilencersLONDON/OTTAWA — Four former Western University students at the center of a sprawling firearms and explosives investigation now face 19 new charges alleging possession of TNT and three other explosive ... 011
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 17/08/2026The Pentagon is paying $200 mio for something, they seem totally hooked on this shit, everyone has an opinion about it, yet it’s still a freakin mystery to me what they actually do with these models. Like, what are the concrete operational uses? Can anyone explain?? Do we know?! 020
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 15/08/2026I’m not sure people realize that Russia is now *importing gasoline* from North Africa. Not huge amounts, but still. Russia, gasoline. Last year, some analysts were saying Ukraine had no chance to meaningfully impact 🇷🇺’s oil industry with their strikes… africa.businessinsider.com/local/market...africa.businessinsider.comRussia finally imports gasoline from an African country as Ukrainian drone strikes squeeze fuel productionRussia has imported about 30,000 metric tonnes of gasoline from Morocco as Moscow searches for alternative supplies following repeated Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries 21511
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 11/08/2026I’ll say it again: Russia hacked Poland’s energy infrastructure in the dead of winter. And NATO’s answer (6 months later) has been a joint attribution and a bunch of sanctioned individuals. Highly unusual attack, awfully normal answer. They’ll keep probing, because they don’t see any pushback. 121
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Surely, Western travel Youtubers will mention this in their future glossy videos about China 🤔 010
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 01/08/2026Des groupes de hackers affiliés à l’Iran ont visé des stations de traitement des eaux dans 7 États 🇺🇸 dans les derniers jours (une trentaine juste au Minnesota…). Teheran veut montrer qu’ils peuvent, eux aussi, toucher le sol américain à leur manière. www.wired.com/story/securi...wired.com7 States’ Water Systems Hit by Cyberattacks Likely Tied to IranPlus: The FBI eyes AI-powered tech to detect future crimes, Russia charges Telegram’s founder, xAI sues to stop a state’s “nudification” ban, and the Democrats learn a lesson about getting scammed. 012
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 01/08/2026A new Russian cyber espionage campaign exploits hotel wifi to compromise high-profile individuals. At ESET, we’ve seen diplomats and military officers being targeted in several countries. Microsoft attributes the operation to APT29/Cozy Bear (so, the SVR 🇷🇺). www.microsoft.com/en-us/securi...microsoft.comCaptiveCrunch: Midnight Blizzard targets travelers worldwide for malware delivery and credential theft | Microsoft Security BlogStorm-2945, a sub-cluster of the Russian threat actor Midnight Blizzard, has been observed compromising the sign-in portals of hospitality-related organizations such as hotels since May 2026 in order ... 112
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 31/07/2026I’ve never much believed in the practicality of cyber deterrence, but that sure won’t help the cause… 010
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 30/07/2026Sur le cas Xenia Fedorova: je saisis cette belle occasion pour republier ce bijou d’enquête *publié en 2019*. Tout était déjà exposé on ne peut plus clairement. Encore une fois: n’ont pas vu que ceux qui ne voulaient pas voir. www.vanityfair.fr/pouvoir/medi...vanityfair.frEnquête sur RT, la chaîne russe qui bouscule les médias françaisÀ la faveur de la crise des Gilets jaunes, une mystérieuse chaîne russe s'est imposée parmi les premiers médias de France sur Internet. Sa recette ? Montrer que tout va pour le pire en Occident. 141
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 25/07/2026And cyberespionage plays a significant role in it. Every month or so, our APT research team sees China-aligned hackers groups target organizations active in the semiconductor industry (especially in Taiwan 🇹🇼). And you can tell it is a persistent, well-targeted, cross-group effort. 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 22/07/2026I am 6 again, and Fantasia’s Mickey Mouse loses control of the enchanted brooms he tasked with carrying water. Except this time, Mickey has lobbyists all across D.C. to make sure no one keeps the sorcerer’s apprentice in check. 🧙♂️🧹🪣 www.bbc.com/news/article...bbc.comOpenAI says its AI went rogue and launched 'unprecedented' cyber-attackIt is one of the first publicly disclosed cyber-attacks carried out by AI without direct human involvement. 010
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 18/07/2026What people need to understand is that 🇨🇳 is way past trying to influence who becomes president. They’re interested in congressional & state-level races. They’re interested in candidates of Chinese descent, etc. It’s about cultivating influence from the ground up. www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...usatoday.comTrump Chinese election meddling statement faces skepticism. Here's whyPresident Donald Trump made many allegations in his address on election integrity. Experts, former U.S. intelligence officials are skeptical. 120
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 13/07/2026Bottomline: after a 6 months wait, a joint attribution and a bunch of sanctioned individuals. That’s an awfully normal response to a worryingly unusual attack, if you ask me. What message do we think that sends? What Stringer Bell would call « a 40-degree day ». therecord.media/russia-blame...therecord.mediaRussia's FSB blamed for Poland grid attack as UK and EU impose first joint cyber sanctionsThe allies blamed Center 16, the FSB’s signals intelligence arm, for acts of attempted cyber sabotage targeting Poland’s energy sector and water treatment facilities, alongside “a wide range of malici... 065
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 11/07/2026« An investigation by Dutch intelligence services revealed that the Russian operation targeted cameras on doorbells installed along military transport routes, in order to determine which weapons were being delivered to Kyiv ». unn.ua/en/amp/russi...unn.uaRussia spied on NATO military bases through doorbell cameras in search of weapons for Ukraine - Dutch intelligence | УННУНН War in Ukraine ✎ Russian hackers gained access to doorbell cameras to monitor the transportation of military equipment to Ukraine. 049
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 09/07/2026Bottomline: intelligence analysis is hard. Thankfully, today, all you’d have to do is identify 2-3 Polymarket accounts belonging to Trump’s inner circle, and look at how they bet. Then you would know what the latest US intel says about the issue at hand. www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v...volkskrant.nl‘Unique source’ blinded Dutch intelligence agencies to Putin’s invasion: ‘What a fuck-up’Despite persistent warnings from American and British officials, the Dutch intelligence agencies refused to believe Putin would invade Ukraine in 2022. An investigation by de Volkskrant reveals how th... 010
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 07/07/2026Le groupe hacktiviste pro-🇷🇺 NoName057(16), connu pour ses nombreux DDoS, a vu un 3e de ses membres être arrêté – en Espagne. Il était aussi membre de Cyber Army of Russia Reborn (CARR). Les 2 groupes ont été formellement associés au GRU par la justice US fin 2025. www.theregister.com/security/202...theregister.comSpain collars alleged pro-Russia hacktivist after FBI tip-offPalencia man suspected of links to CARR, Z-Pentest, and NoName057(16), plus helping a Ukrainian hacker flee to Russia 233
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 04/07/2026Et ça s’étend très largement au cyber-espace: notre équipe observe très fréquemment les groupes de hackers affiliés au renseignement biélorusse cibler des organisations de la diaspora en Pologne. La répression transnationale ne vient pas que de la Chine et de l’Iran. www.la-croix.com/internationa...la-croix.comEn Pologne, les espions étrangers sèment la terreur parmi les communautés biélorusse et ukrainienne du paysUne recrudescence des activités d’espionnage a conduit les autorités polonaises à arrêter toute une série de suspects ces derniers jours. Le 15 juin 2026, un caricaturiste russe a même été assassiné e... 02611
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 01/07/2026An Iranian hacker affiliated with the IRGC has been arrested in Montenegro and now faces extradition to the 🇺🇸. Not the 1st time this would happen, but still quite notable. A reminder that state-sponsored hackers must choose their holiday destination carefully… www.reuters.com/world/monten...reuters.comMontenegro police, FBI arrest Iranian wanted by US for hackingMontenegrin police and the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested an Iranian national suspected of hacking attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure to the tune of $3.4 billion, Montenegrin po... 011
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 27/06/2026Il y a 2 ans, discussion avec un ami qui affirme (à regret) que « la Russie ne peut pas être battue ». Je rétorque que si l’🇺🇦 reçoit 1000 Storm Shadow par mois et tape les raffineries chaque nuit, dans la durée, Moscou va finir par flancher. On y est pas (encore), mais on voit la logique à l’œuvre… 000
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 26/06/2026If one APT group has adopted « move fast and break things » as their motto, that’s Gamaredon: we documented 35 distinct phishing campaigns of the group in 2025, *all targeting Ukraine 🇺🇦 *. A new ESET Research blog about our old friends from FSB Center 18. www.welivesecurity.com/en/eset-rese...welivesecurity.comGamaredon in 2025: Leveraging tunnels, workers, dead drops, and new alliancesESET Research analyzes Gamaredon’s new toolset and the group’s growing reliance on legitimate online services to hide its C&C infrastructure and exfiltrate stolen data. 001
Reposted by Alexis RapinAlexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 24/06/2026The most beautiful thing about Russian propaganda: even those specifically trained and tasked with spreading it do not believe it for a second. GRU Lieutenant Colonel Kirill Stupakov 👇🏼 (Source: vsquare.org/welcome-to-t...) 013
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 24/06/2026The most beautiful thing about Russian propaganda: even those specifically trained and tasked with spreading it do not believe it for a second. GRU Lieutenant Colonel Kirill Stupakov 👇🏼 (Source: vsquare.org/welcome-to-t...) 013
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Is the idea of APT groups as unitary, monolithic entities (a PLA unit, an MSS bureau) still viable? When it comes to China, maybe not so much. Cool paper discussing the new ecosystem of 🇨🇳 cyber operations and its complex mesh of contractors, fronts, quartermaster etc. bindinghook.com/understandin...bindinghook.comUnderstanding modern Chinese cyber operations means shifting from ‘APT’ to composite responsibilityCyber operations today can include anything from PLA units to companies acting independently, and often include a mix of actors, complicating attribution and response 232
Alexis Rapin @alexis-rapin.bsky.social · 11/06/2026The (in)famous Vietnamese APT group OceanLotus is back, with a campaign that targeted stock buyers via a compromised investment app. We suspect this operation was part of the 🇻🇳 government’s ongoing crusade against corruption and financial crime. 010