Poland’s right-wing President has been largely successful at transforming his office into an assertive centre of resistance to the liberal centrist-led government, frustrating its agenda through extensive use of constitutional powers. He has emerged as the leading unifying figure on the fragmented Polish right but faces new challenges moving towards the next election. Scuppering the government’s reform agenda Last month, Polish President Karol Nawrocki marked the first anniversary of his inauguration following a surprise victory in the May-June 2025 presidential election over Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO), Poland’s main governing party since autumn 2023 led by prime minister Donald Tusk.

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The biggest-ever split within Poland’s main right-wing opposition party is a serious self-inflicted wound, signalling a more fragmented conservative landscape and complicating the right’s path back to power. While it provides a tactical boost for the Tusk government, there is still every chance of a conservative comeback if the right-wing parties co-operate effectively. Radical right challengers At the end of last month, the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, Poland’s ruling party between 2015-23 and currently the main opposition grouping, saw the biggest split in its 25-year history.

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The parliamentary survival of Poland’s agrarian party is on a knife-edge as it has lost much of core rural-agricultural electorate, and its distinctive identity is overshadowed in the governing coalition. The party’s ability to clear the electoral representation threshold could determine whether pro-government groupings secure a majority at the next election. A class-based rural-agricultural party In December 2023, a coalition headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO, until last autumn Civic Platform: PO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years’ rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

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We examine the prospects for Poland’s ruling coalition ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election. Plus: we head to Paris to...

Poland’s ruling coalition is likely to survive until the scheduled 2027 parliamentary election despite presidential veto constraints and internal frictions because access to state resources incentivises cohesion. However, its re-election prospects depend on whether the election focuses on the government’s domestic record or national security narratives. Little prospect of an early election In December 2023, a coalition headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years’ rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

Poland’s main right-wing opposition grouping faces its most serious internal crisis as falling poll ratings and pressure from more radical rivals expose deep factional divisions. A bitter clash between the ascendant traditionalist-conservative and former prime minister’s modernising-technocratic factions raises the real possibility of a damaging split before the next election. Opinion poll slide Law and Justice (PiS), Poland’s right-wing ruling party between 2015-23 and currently the main opposition grouping, has been on the back-foot since last autumn when the honeymoon from its candidate Karol Nawrocki’s unexpected June 2025 presidential election victory began to wear off.

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The right-wing Polish President’s veto of an EU defence loan programme ignited a fierce clash with the liberal-centrist-led government, crystallising deep divides over military modernisation and EU relations. While the President minimised the anticipated political costs, the dispute sharpened polarisation and turbo‑charged the ruling coalition’s ‘Polexit’ and security narratives. A politically explosive veto Last month Polish President Karol Nawrocki - who is aligned with the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, the country’s main opposition grouping - vetoed government legislation creating a financial instrument enabling Poland to access its 43.7 million Euros allocation from the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence procurement initiative.

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The new speaker has transformed the post into a forceful political weapon, using its powers to shield the government, sideline opponents and amplify the left’s influence. Controversial yet highly effective, he has become one of the liberal-centrist prime minister’s key strategic allies and the ruling coalition’s uncompromising enforcer. A key strategic position In December 2023, a coalition headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years’ rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

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A far-right politician’s unexpectedly strong presidential bid has up‑ended Poland’s right-wing landscape, transforming him from a political eccentric into a disruptive force that the mainstream can no longer ignore. His surge exposes deep fractures on the Polish right and raises the question of whether his radical 'anti‑system' appeal marks a temporary protest spike or more lasting re-alignment. Presidential election wild card…

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The Polish Embassy was the venue for the launch of Prof Aleks Szczerbiak’s Routledge published book, ‘Political Parties in Post-Communist Poland’.

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While Poland is secularizing, Catholicism still shapes its politics in subtle but significant ways.

Although the right-wing candidate’s presidential election win initially emboldened the opposition, it increasingly turned in on itself as the government stabilised its position. Nonetheless, the conservative camp still appears on track to win a majority at the next election if the President can help re-construct the broad alliance that secured his victory. Emboldening the opposition In December 2023, a coalition government headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

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After recovering from the shock of its candidate’s presidential election defeat, Poland’s ruling coalition is doubling down on holding its right-wing predecessor to account for alleged abuses of power and focusing on national security. However, the government still faces considerable political and socio-economic challenges, and many Poles remain frustrated at its inability to deliver on flagship election promises. A radically new political landscape…

The imminent resignation of a TV-personality-turned-politician from the leadership of the nominally ‘anti-duopoly’ liberal-centrist party that he founded threatens the ruling coalition’s cohesion and stability. To remain in office after the next election, it will need a replacement pro-government party that can appeal to voters looking for ‘newness’. Crucial for Mr Tusk’s victory The liberal-centrist ‘Poland 2050’ (Polska 2050) is a junior partner in the current ruling coalition - led by Donald Tusk, leader of the Civic Coalition (KO - until October 2025 Civic Platform: PO), a larger liberal-centrist grouping that was Poland’s main governing party between 2007-2015 - which came to office in December 2023.

While the Polish Church remains a totemic force in Polish society, the relationship between parties and religion in post-communist Poland is a complex one.

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The political fall-out from the recent Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace passed over quickly suggesting that most Poles have normalised the fact that there is an armed conflict on their border. The incident also shows how the right-wing President and opposition’s close political alignment with US President Donald Trump is potentially a double-edged sword. A pivotal moment? On the night of September 9th-10th, in what the Polish government and its NATO allies condemned as an unprecedented act of aggression, an estimated twenty Russian military drones were recorded repeatedly violating the country’s airspace.

Embracing an active model of the presidency, including in the foreign policy sphere, puts pressure on Poland’s new right-wing head of state to fulfill his election promise of strengthening the country’s relations with the Trump administration. But he has secured a significant political success following the US President’s pledge to maintain, and even expand, America’s military presence in Poland. An active President…

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Although not involved in day-to-day governance, Poland’s new right-wing President will de-stabilise, and act as the centre of resistance to, the liberal-centrist coalition government, severely complicating its institutional and legislative reform programme. He could also limit its room for manoeuvre on the international stage and help to shake-up Poland’s EU trajectory and trans-Atlantic ties. De-stabilising the Tusk government On August 6th, historian Karol Nawrocki was sworn in as President of Poland for a five-year term.

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The results of the recent Polish presidential election could bring changes to the relationship between Ukraine and Poland. The new conservative Polish

The right-wing opposition candidate’s presidential election victory has radically changed Poland’s political dynamics, scuppering the liberal-centrist coalition government’s plans to re-set its reform agenda. However, there is no immediate prospect of a change of prime minister or government and the coalition is likely to survive until the next election, albeit considerably weakened and divided. Presidential election is a huge blow…

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Professor of Politics at the University of Sussex, Aleks Szczerbiak, discusses Poland's new temporary immigration rules on its border with Germany and Lithuania.

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The stakes for this year’s Polish presidential election were high.