Sign in

Adrian Del Rio

@adridelrio.bsky.social
939 followers 372 following 35 posts

MSCA Postdoctoral fellow. University of Oslo. Research on elite politics, dictatorships, democratization, and education. Website: www.adelrio.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Comparativesky Dictatorsky CivMilSky PoliSci Journals
000
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Check our conclusions for more on the implications, scope conditions, and future research avenues! Full paper here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
A rainbow in the dark? The electoral impact of elite divisions within the ruling party in dictatorships - Adrián del Río, Javier Padilla, Dean Schafer, 2026
Dictators often rule through political parties. While they might bolster regime survival, ruling parties can also provide a means for party members to defy the ...
100
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Democratization scholars have long flagged elite divisions as key to regime change—especially democratic transitions. We find major party divisions do correlate with change within the regime, but less often trigger regime change itself. 🏛️
121
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Why should you care about this piece? We establish a benchmark: past work offers competing takes on whether elite divisions help, hurt, or don't matter for a dictator's electoral performance. In roughly 1/4, divisions don't align with electoral decline—consistent with real boundary conditions 🎯
110
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Please check our above 90-page appendix: robustness checks + discussion of limitations + alternative explanations including past electoral decline, candidate selection, party personalization, regime type, pro-democracy movements, party-military ties & elite defections. 📊🔍
110
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
3. They erode the regime's public image. These leaks make the government look unreliable and incompetent in the eyes of citizens, fueling discontent and making it feel safer for people to push back — including through protest. 📉
110
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
2. They weaken regime mobilization. That damaging information splits party resources between loyalists, dissenters, and fence-sitters instead of unified action — while local officials and security forces grow wary of using intimidation tactics, which start to look riskier and less legitimate ⚖️
110
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
1. They expose regime weakness. Divisions leak credible signals that undermine the state's grip on media and censorship. Competition within the ruling party exposes damaging information that spreads to other officials, citizens, and the opposition alike 🔓📰
120
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
(2) Still, divisions aren't inconsequential. Democratization is a long process shaped by shifting actors—and elite divisions are linked to change within the regime, boosting democratization prospects in three key ways: 🔄
121
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
(1) Severe elite divisions can hurt the dictator's party at the polls—but they're only weakly tied to the opposition actually winning. The hope of regime change that internal power struggles inspire often fades in authoritarian politics' bleak landscape... a rainbow in the dark. 🌈🌑
110
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Can elite divisions undo dictatorships? @schaferd.bsky.social, @javierpadilla.bsky.social and I examine the electoral consequences of elite divisions in dictatorships. @politicsjournal.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... A thread 🧵
1177
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Anita Gohdes @argohdes.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
We're hiring a Post-Doc (3 years) at the @hertieschool.bsky.social for a @scripts-berlin.eu project on authoritarian influence in the video games industry (I am soooo excited about this project)! More details here (deadline 31 May): hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com/en/p/en/jobs...
hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com
Postdoctoral Researcher - Narrative, Power, and Control (gn) full-time (40 hours/week)
18567
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
📢 New article 👥 @adridelrio.bsky.social, Woseeok Kim, @chknutsen.bsky.social @anjaneundorf.bsky.social & 2 others 👉 Enhancing Transparency and Replicability in Data Collection: Lessons from the Construction of Three Education Datasets 📖 Published in Perspectives on Politics 🔗 doi.org/10.1017/s153...
doi.org
Enhancing Transparency and Replicability in Data Collection: Lessons from the Construction of Three Education Datasets | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
Enhancing Transparency and Replicability in Data Collection: Lessons from the Construction of Three Education Datasets
052
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
New publication! Collecting data is key for social science. @adridelrio.bsky.social, Woseeok Kim, @chknutsen.bsky.social, @anjaneundorf.bsky.social, Agustina S. Paglayan & @eugenian.bsky.social suggest how to enhance transparency and replicability based on education datasets tinyurl.com/yskszsdt
073
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
They forgot to add "Sir Lord" before your name =D jokes aside, thank you for your and Philipp work!
120
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Your name looks cooler in that font haha
110
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Perspectives on Politics @poppublicsphere.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
NOW OUT ON FV!! Enhancing #Transparency & #Replicability in #Data #Collection: Lessons from the Construction of 3 #Education #Datasets By @adridelrio.bsky.social, Woseeok Kim, @chknutsen.bsky.social, @anjaneundorf.bsky.social, Agustina S. Paglayan & @eugenian.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S153...
093
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Thanks @apsa.bsky.social for the mention to my coauthored #education dataset with @chknutsen.bsky.social and @plutscher.bsky.social in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... Data: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...
0175
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Happy to chat about the source of agreement/disagreement too
010
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Thank you, Sara. This is so kind of you. Let me know if you need any further recommendations =)
110
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
New article alert! @adridelrio.bsky.social & Masaaki Higashijima examine at @cpsjournal.bsky.social the relationship between elite divisions within authoritarian governments and democratization prospects.Check it out! #OpenAccess #Dictatorsky #comparativesky #CivMilSky #PolSci tinyurl.com/bdf6ryws
tinyurl.com
Democratic Reforms in Dictatorships: Elite Divisions, Party Origins, and the Prospects of Political Liberalization - Adrián del Río, Masaaki Higashijima, 2024
Divisions among regime elites in autocracies are often an important step toward political liberalization. However, we know little about when such divisions cont...
0113
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Thank you all who helped us on the way =)
010
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
We also discard many alternative hypotheses stemming from other party characteristics, factionalism, ideology, democratic culture, regime origins, economic development & inequality, leaders’ tenure, personality cults, and military power. Too much work in here!
110
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Employing a panel matching estimator, we found strong evidence in support of our argument, as well as the causal mechanisms wherein the autocrats provide "carrots" to the military and employ "sticks" to citizens and the opposition by strengthening coercion and controls.
100
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
When the party is founded in violent struggles, elite divisions do not result in liberalizing autocratic countries. Under such regimes, alliances between the dictator and military are credibly tight, so the autocrats crack down on regime threats led by elite schism
100
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
In the paper, we explore when elite divisions in dictatorships lead to political liberalization, arguing how autocrats create their ruling party is crucial
100
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
When and why do some elite divisions in authoritarian governments improve democratization prospects and others dont? @mhigashi.bsky.social & I provide one answer in a new article in @cpsjournal.bsky.social Comparativesky Dictatorsky CivMilSky Polisky #openaccess journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
282
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Employing a panel matching estimator, we found strong evidence in support of our argument, as well as the causal mechanisms wherein the autocrats provide "carrots" to the military and employ "sticks" to citizens and the opposition by strengthening coercion and controls.
000
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
When the party is founded in national struggles, elite divisions do not result in liberalizing autocratic countries. Under such regimes, alliances between the dictator and military are credibly tight, so the autocrats crack down on regime threats led by elite schism
100
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
In the paper, we explore when elite divisions in dictatorships lead to political liberalization, arguing how autocrats create their ruling party is crucial.
100
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Thank you, Magnus :') I am really glad that you like it.
000
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 08/11/2024
📢 New article 🌟 👤 Adrian del Rio Rodriguez @adridelrio.bsky.social 🔎 Revisiting citizen preferences for who should govern and how. the case of cross-national surveys 📖 Open Access in Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Revisiting citizen preferences for who should govern and how. the case of cross-national surveys
A growing body of literature suggests that many citizens reject representative politics and demand instead that people or unelected experts direct governmental decision-making. This study contribut...
041
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 08/11/2024
📢 New article 🌟 👥 Adrian del Rio Rodriguez @adridelrio.bsky.social & Xavier Coller 🔎 Building Political Agreements: Pragmatic and Responsive Decision-Makers 📗 Open Access in American Behavioral Scientist journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Building Political Agreements: Pragmatic and Responsive Decision-Makers - Adrián del Río, Xavier Coller, 2024
Are politicians willing to betray their ideology, party, voters, and/or own principles to reach agreements with rivals? Focusing on the case of Spain, this arti...
051
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 27/05/2024
Education plays key roles in the lives of people & states.Yet, we need systematic & extensive data to study the development and effects of education. @chknutsen.bsky.social, @plutscher.bsky.social & I offer our dataset on education systems worldwide #OpenAccess journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Education Policies and Systems Across Modern History: A Global Dataset - Adrián del Río, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Philipp M. Lutscher, 2024
We introduce a global dataset on education policies and systems across modern history (EPSM), which includes measures on compulsory education, ideological guida...
061
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 27/05/2024
Education plays key roles in the lives of people & states.Yet, we need systematic & extensive data to study the development and effects of education. @chknutsen.bsky.social, @plutscher.bsky.social & I offer our dataset on education systems worldwide #OpenAccess. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Education Policies and Systems Across Modern History: A Global Dataset - Adrián del Río, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Philipp M. Lutscher, 2024
We introduce a global dataset on education policies and systems across modern history (EPSM), which includes measures on compulsory education, ideological guida...
010
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 27/05/2024
Education plays many key roles in the lives of people & states. Yet, we need systematic and extensive data to study the development and effects of education. Carl Knutsen, Philipp Lutscher & I introduce our dataset on education systems worldwide #OpenAccess🥳 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Education Policies and Systems Across Modern History: A Global Dataset - Adrián del Río, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Philipp M. Lutscher, 2024
We introduce a global dataset on education policies and systems across modern history (EPSM), which includes measures on compulsory education, ideological guida...
010
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Felix Wiebrecht @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social · 02/02/2024
Unfortunately, our expenses for @apsgworkshop.bsky.social are increasing. If you can, please consider donating to keep our operations running - any support is much appreciated! polisky dictatorsky
001
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Felix Wiebrecht @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social · 15/01/2024
APSG will be back soon with a new exciting season! 👇 Subscribe to get all the Zoom links (and more): tinyletter.com/APSG_workshop polisky dictatorsky
011
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 12/01/2024
And...it is Friday...so yeah! Celebrate! :D
010
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 02/11/2023
I had great and productive time in Regensburg. Great colleagues, city, (and beers). So long and thank you for all the schnitzel! =)
010
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Philipp Lutscher @plutscher.bsky.social · 12/10/2023
I just received this link on political science related skies from @melinscribe.bsky.social: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
021
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 07/10/2023
Beautiful Regensburg! I will definitely enjoy living here and working at IOS
010
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 02/10/2023
Add me too! :D
000
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 30/09/2023
Today, a chapter ends. Finished my time as a Humboldt postdoctoral fellow in Berlin. I am grateful for good times here, wonderful colleagues, and the hard times. Next week, I will become a visiting scholar at the Institute for East European Studies in Regensburg. Let me know if you are in Munich!
010
Reposted by Adrian Del Rio
Fabio Angiolillo @fabioangiolillo.bsky.social · 29/09/2023
APSG moved! Is there a better way to land here than by opening with a brand new call for papers? Apply and share widely — especially grad students! Polisky Dictatorsky
054
Adrian Del Rio @adridelrio.bsky.social · 30/09/2023
If you work on authoritarian politics, you MUST apply to this call. A great opportunity to receive high-quality feedback and reach your audience!
030