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Adam Isacson

@adamisacson.com
9.3K followers 424 following 3.5K posts

He/Him. I work on security, borders, and migration at the Washington Office on Latin America (my views, not necessarily theirs). I'm also at wola.org, adamisacson.com, borderoversight.org, Mastodon elefanti.co/@adam

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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 03/10/2026
Flying back to DC, still savoring yesterday’s win. My testimony dove deeply into the numbers showing that Big Bend is *not* an area of high illegal entry. The transcript will show me saying, “OK this is going to get really nerdy.” And yeah, it was. From www.marfapublicradio.org/news/2026-10...
Marta.
PUBLIC RADIO
Donate
The Big Bend Sector is historically the least trafficked sector along the southwest border, accounting for just 1.3% of all apprehensions in the last fiscal year.
Among the expert witnesses who testified in court Friday was Adam Isacson, Director of Defense Oversight for the Washington Office on Latin America, a non-profit that tracks trends along the border. He said that while the Big Bend Sector makes up 28.5% of the southwest border in terms of miles, it consistently sees by far the least traffic in terms of apprehensions and drug seizures, according to CBP data dating back decades.
"It is in extraordinarily distant last place," Isacson said. "It doesn't play in the same league as the other sectors."
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 02/10/2026
You love to see it.
The Court ENJOINS Defendants as follows: Effective immediately and until the Court
orders otherwise, Defendants SHALL NOT build border barrier or related infrastructure, or
engage in any construction or ground disturbing activities, in the Big Bend Sector until and
unless Defendants comply with all applicable laws. Defendants must comply with all applicable
laws notwithstanding the “Big Bend Waivers,” including the “West Waiver,” 91 Fed. Reg. 7297
(Feb. 17, 2026), as amended by 91 Fed. Reg. 40550 (July 2, 2026), the “National Park Waiver,
080
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 30/09/2026
You see, Trump is joking about how hundreds of migrants fall from the giant new border wall each year, but "only" dozens of them actually die. Freaking hilarious, right?
These numbers come from Scripps Mercy Hospital and UC San Diego Medical Center. Together, the two Hillcrest hospitals provide trauma services for a 30-mile stretch of the border from the Pacific Ocean to Tecate.

In 2023, these two facilities collectively recorded 629 falls from the 30-foot steel structure severe enough to result in a hospital stay. So far in 2024, the total number of severe falls is up to 993, though that number is incomplete. UC San Diego data covers January through September while the total provided by Scripps runs through August.

Each facility, then, has averaged two border fall admissions per day, about double the caseload observed in 2021, when the number of falls spiked significantly.
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 29/09/2026
If you're in Washington tomorrow and want a more hopeful take on a key aspect of Colombia’s 10-year-old peace accord, join us at the Notre Dame Keough School's Washington office at 10:00. RSVP here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
KEOUGH SCHOOL
10.00
WASHINGTON OFFICE
Crossing Borders in the Search for Truth:
Lessons from Colombia's Groundbreaking Exile & Transitional Justice Model
Wednesday, September 30 10:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
Keough School Washington Office
1400 16th St NW, Suite 120, Washington, DC
The Keough School of Global Affairs Washington Office, in partnership with the Center for Peace, Democracy & Development at the University of Massachusetts in Boston and Humanity United, cordially invites you to an in-person panel discussion to explore critical themes of exile, memory building, transitional justice, migration, and truth-seeking.
We are bringing together leading scholars, policymakers, and diaspora advocates to examine the groundbreaking work of the Colombian Truth Commission with exiled citizens around the world through a network that included hundreds of volunteers in 24 countries, and collected more than 2,000 testimonies to produce the chapter on exile of the final report.
The presentation, which will draw lessons learned from a new book on the process, will highlight actionable policy recommendations and evaluate how the Colombian model can serve as an innovative paradigm for future global peace processes and transitional justice frameworks.
This is part of the University of Notre Dame's Legacy Project.
Light refreshments will be served.
The event will feature presentations by:
Josefina Echavarría Álvarez, Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame
Jeffrey Pugh, Center for Peace, Democracy & Development, UMass Boston
Adam Isacson, Director for Defense Oversight, WOLA
Leslie Wingender, Senior Portfolio Director of Peacebuilding, Humanity
United
Cristina Espinel, Colombian Human Rights Committee
Roxanna Vigil, Former White House National Security Council and Treasury Department Official
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 28/09/2026
I'm very much looking forward to participating in this discussion of Colombia's peace efforts at @KeoughGlobalND's Washington office, this Wednesday morning. Join us in person! You can register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Crossing Borders in the Search for Truth: 
Lessons from Colombia’s Groundbreaking Exile & Transitional Justice Model

Wednesday, September 30
10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
 
Keough School Washington Office
1400 16th St NW, Suite 120, Washington, DC

The Keough School of Global Affairs Washington Office, in partnership with the Center for Peace, Democracy & Development at the University of Massachusetts in Boston and Humanity United, cordially invites you to an in-person panel discussion to explore critical themes of exile, memory building, transitional justice, migration, and truth-seeking.
We are bringing together leading scholars, policymakers, and diaspora advocates to examine the groundbreaking work of the Colombian Truth Commission with exiled citizens around the world through a network that included hundreds of volunteers in 24 countries, and collected more than 2,000 testimonies to produce the chapter on exile of the final report. 
The presentation, which will draw lessons learned from a new book on the process, will highlight actionable policy recommendations and evaluate how the Colombian model can serve as an innovative paradigm for future global peace processes and transitional justice frameworks.
This is part of the University of Notre Dame’s Legacy Project.
Light refreshments will be served.
 
The event will feature presentations by:
Josefina Echavarría Álvarez, Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame
Jeffrey Pugh, Center for Peace, Democracy & Development, UMass Boston
Adam Isacson, Director for Defense Oversight, WOLA 
Leslie Wingender, Senior Portfolio Director of Peacebuilding, Humanity United 
Cristina Espinel, Colombian Human Rights Committee
Roxanna Vigil, Former White House National Security Council and Treasury Department Official
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 27/09/2026
I have childhood memories of WHN: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WEPN_(AM)
Overall though, WHN's ratings were still low. After a lot of research, on February 26, 1973, WHN became a country music station. The New York Metropolitan Area had never been a country music hot spot, and prior to WHN, the area had only had two country music stations: WJRZ in Hackensack, New Jersey, and WTHE in Mineola, New York. In the early years of WHN's country format, it featured on-air personalities such as Larry Kenney, Big Wilson and Jack Spector. Some of these were holdovers from the previous middle of the road format.

As a country music station, they played artists like Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, Waylon Jennings, Tanya Tucker, Lynn Anderson, Kenny Rogers, Mel Tillis, Charley Pride, Mickey Gilley, Ronnie Milsap, and many more. Also, they mixed in non-country and country-pop cross-over artists that had country-friendly songs such as The Eagles, Elvis Presley, Anne Murray, Olivia Newton-John, Linda Ronstadt, and others. Over the years, as WHN evolved as a country station, on-air personalities such as Dan Daniel, Alan Colmes, Jerry Carroll and others moved in.

During this era, WHN was programmed by Ed Salamon, who was inducted into the Country Radio Hall of Fame in 2006. Salamon and promotional partner Dale Pon were able to walk the line between country music like Johnny Cash, Dolly Parton, and latter day Elvis, Top 40 radio programming tactics, and the late 70s rock artists –including The Eagles, Ronstadt, Newton-John, and Rogers– who had absorbed country into their contemporary pop– and, using extensive, award-winning television and transit advertising, into one of the most successful Country radio stations in history.[citation needed]
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 27/09/2026
My latest declaration in the *Ruidosa Church* case against the Big Bend border wall has 31 pages of charts and tables, showing how rare illegal border crossings have been in an environmentally fragile area where the Trump admin wants to build barriers. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
U.S.-Mexico Border Patrol Migrant
Apprehensions by Sector, 2026 (as of July)
Big Bend Share of BorderWide Apprehensions: Pie chart shows Big Bend-26% of border miles but just 2% of total apprehensions.
188
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 25/09/2026
You know how DHS is spending over $7 billion on a border wall in the Big Bend region, calling it an area of "high illegal entry?" Well, Border Patrol now arrests more migrants in *upstate New York* (blue) than it does in its Big Bend Sector (green). Neither Big Bend nor Lake Ontario needs a wall.
Migrant Apprehensions in Border Patrol’s Big Bend (Texas) and Buffalo (New York/Pennsylvania) Sectors

	25-Feb	25-Mar	25-Apr	25-May	25-Jun	25-Jul	25-Aug	25-Sep	25-Oct	25-Nov	25-Dec	26-Jan	26-Feb	26-Mar	26-Apr	26-May	26-Jun	26-Jul	26-Aug
Buffalo	100	104	136	107	207	169	176	219	173	170	117	137	134	201	174	197	197	262	208
Big Bend	165	235	324	237	156	142	208	202	185	219	178	152	158	187	158	124	148	98	161
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 25/09/2026
The article says, "The message makes no reference to Cuba." But it's possible this is a plan for Cuba. However, Southcom may instead be planning a major ramp-up of operations hemisphere-wide. In August, Gen. Donovan discussed a "campaign plan" going online in November: www.war.gov/News/News-St....
During the meetings, Donovan said next steps were decided, which included refining priority network campaign plans, designating roles and lead nations, establishing working groups with specific objectives and milestones, and initiating coalition campaign assessments.


"Between now and November, we are going to write an A3C campaign plan," he said. "We will staff it with our teammates and our members here in the room, and we'll approve it by November." 

The general also said coalition nations are eager to volunteer to lead in areas important to them. 

"Yesterday, by the end of our session, we went out and made the initial pulse … who wants to lead in different regions? Who wants to lead, to … go after these networks?" Donovan said. "We had volunteers right away, nations that wanted to step forward and take [the] lead in subregions and go after certain threats."
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 24/09/2026
Photos of heavily armed US military personnel participating in raids today somewhere inside Ecuador. Seems to meet the War Powers Resolution’s definition of "hostilities." From x.com/DanielNoboaO...
Appears to be a Marine carrying a rifle on a stairway. US flag patch on shoulder.Soldier in tactical gear, 2 US flag patches on uniform, talking to man in Ecuador police gear
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 24/09/2026
An overnight operation in 3 provinces of Ecuador "in coordination with US troops and the DEA." This says "A US prosecutor and a local prosecutor participated in the raids, while military personnel from the Southern Command provided information and technology": www.eluniverso.com/noticias/seg...
Tweet from https://x.com/PoliciaEcuador/status/2103082426863890906

Policía Ecuador
@PoliciaEcuador
OPERACIÓN CONJUNTA CONTRA UNA ESTRUCTURA DE NARCOTRÁFICO

La madrugada de hoy bajo el liderazgo de nuestro 
@CmdtPoliciaEc
 #GraSPabloDávila y el Ministro del Interior en coordinación con tropas norteamericanas y la 
@DEAHQ
 
ejecutó una operación conjunta que permitió la detención de varios sujetos en #Guayaquil, #Daule, #Samborondón, #Ventanas, #Babahoyo, #Puebloviejo, #Vinces y #Machala.

La investigación permitió identificar una estructura dedicada al acopio, intermediación, distribución, transporte y comercialización de grandes cantidades de droga proveniente de #Colombia, que pretendía ser enviada por vía marítima desde puertos de Guayaquil y Machala hacia Centroamérica, Estados Unidos y Europa.

Operativo en desarrollo.
077
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 20/09/2026
People Killed by U.S. Boat Strikes in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific

A chart showing the content of this CSV file:

Date,People Killed,Location
2-Sep-25,11,Caribbean
15-Sep-25,3,Caribbean
19-Sep-25,3,Caribbean
3-Oct-25,4,Caribbean
14-Oct-25,6,Caribbean
16-Oct-25,2,Caribbean
17-Oct-25,3,Unspecified
21-Oct-25,2,Eastern Pacific
22-Oct-25,3,Eastern Pacific
23-Oct-25,6,Caribbean
27-Oct-25,15,Eastern Pacific
29-Oct-25,4,Eastern Pacific
1-Nov-25,3,Caribbean
4-Nov-25,2,Eastern Pacific
6-Nov-25,3,Caribbean
9-Nov-25,6,Eastern Pacific
10-Nov-25,4,Caribbean
15-Nov-25,3,Eastern Pacific
4-Dec-25,4,Eastern Pacific
15-Dec-25,8,Eastern Pacific
17-Dec-25,4,Eastern Pacific
18-Dec-25,5,Eastern Pacific
22-Dec-25,1,Eastern Pacific
29-Dec-25,2,Eastern Pacific
30-Dec-25,11,Eastern Pacific
31-Dec-25,5,Unspecified
23-Jan-26,3,Eastern Pacific
6-Feb-26,2,Eastern Pacific
9-Feb-26,3,Eastern Pacific
13-Feb-26,3,Caribbean
16-Feb-26,11,Eastern Pacific
20-Feb-26,3,Eastern Pacific
23-Feb-26,3,Caribbean
8-Mar-26,6,Eastern Pacific
19-Mar-26,2,Eastern Pacific
25-Mar-26,4,Caribbean
11-Apr-26,6,Eastern Pacific
13-Apr-26,2,Eastern Pacific
14-Apr-26,4,Eastern Pacific
15-Apr-26,3,Eastern Pacific
19-Apr-26,3,Caribbean
24-Apr-26,2,Eastern Pacific
26-Apr-26,3,Eastern Pacific
4-May-26,2,Caribbean
5-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
8-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
26-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
27-May-26,2,Eastern Pacific
29-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
30-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
3-Jun-26,2,Eastern Pacific
16-Jun-26,3,Eastern Pacific
18-Jun-26,3,Eastern Pacific
21-Jun-26,8,Caribbean
23-Aug-26,2,Eastern Pacific
25-Aug-26,4,Caribbean
9-Sep-26,3,Caribbean
19-Sep-26,4,Caribbean
075
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 20/09/2026
New boat strike tonight. 4 more killed in the Caribbean. The utter degradation of the United States of America continues. www.southcom.mil/News/PressRe...
234 reported people killed (including 23 unrecovered survivors).
67 reported attack events.
71 reported boats struck.
3 reported survivors recovered.
45 reported events in the Eastern Pacific. 20 reported events in the Caribbean. 2 reported events in unspecified locations.
32 events ordered by Southern Command Commander Gen. Francis Donovan (101 reported killed). 19 events ordered by President Donald Trump (76 reported killed). 14 events ordered by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (50 reported killed). 2 events listed as “under the direction of U.S. Southern Command” (7 reported killed).
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 18/09/2026
2 weeks ago, 1,000 riot-police shields were one of the first deliveries of security assistance to Bolivia in nearly 20 years. Now, Pennsylvania State Police are training Bolivian counterparts in crowd control techniques. Seems to be a pattern here.
Sean Parnell

@SeanParnellASW
Yesterday, the 
@DeptofWar
 - working with the 
@StateDept
 and 
@Southcom
 - delivered 1,000 protective shields and 12,500 MREs to vetted Bolivian security forces protecting peaceful citizens and maintaining public order.
 
This is Peace Through Strength.
Embajada de Estados Unidos en Bolivia

@EmbEUAenBolivia
👮‍♂️🤝👮‍♀️ Culmina con éxito la capacitación de la Policía Nacional de Bolivia con la policía de Pennsylvania.

El programa fortaleció el manejo de multitudes, promoviendo comunidades más seguras.
196
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 17/09/2026
Data through August were released yesterday. After a year of lethal boat strikes (230 dead) in seas south of the US, are authorities finding less cocaine reaching US borders? No. Sorry. - 12 months before strikes began: 70,387 lbs seized - 12 months since: 69,703 lbs seized A 1% drop.
Monthly CBP Cocaine Seizures Since Fiscal Year 2024

	Sep-24	Oct-24	Nov-24	Dec-24	Jan-25	Feb-25	Mar-25	Apr-25	May-25	Jun-25	Jul-25	Aug-25	Sep-25	Oct-25	Nov-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26	Aug-26
Coastal/Interior	4263	3193	557	6719	2122	741	1335	288	2595	1942	673	1106	3043	2236	2106	1995	3059	4756	1567	1058	333	1485	538	568
Northern Border	0	0	1	1156	8	246	117	535	564	354	516	273	1053	0	395	45	0	26	14	0	0	388	0	2
Southwest Border	3503	2799	2143	2822	3042	3065	3887	4110	2713	4411	4615	3973	3369	3507	5283	1805	2492	2952	3829	2901	3325	4690	4727	6156
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 17/09/2026
US Marines have been clearing land for an airfield in Ecuador. www.dvidshub.net/image/991327...
LCF-24: CLB-8 Airfield Clearing [Image 3 of 22]
A yellow Komatsu D155AX bulldozer is actively pushing and clearing soil and vegetation debris on an open field. The machine is identified with the unit marking 'BD-01' and appears to be in operation during land clearing or grading work. The setting is an outdoor construction or agricultural site with trees visible in the background under a partly cloudy sky.
ECUADOR
09.02.2026
Photo by Lance Cpl. Allison White 
24th Marine Expeditionary Unit  
 Subscribe111
A U.S. Marine with Combat Logistics Battalion 8, Littoral Combat Force-24, operates heavy equipment bulldozer to clear an airfield in South America, Aug. 2, 2026.  U.S. military forces are deployed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility in support of Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere, Department of War-directed operations, and the President's priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking, deter malign actors and protect the homeland through continuous presence. (U.S. Marine Corps photo) 
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 17/09/2026
Border Patrol's apprehensions of migrants at the US-Mexico border declined 5% from July to August, a typical summer decline. August was also typical of Trump admin-era trends: - 64% from Mexico; 87% MX+Central America - Rio Grande Valley TX busiest sector - 88% single adults bit.ly/cbp-encounters
Border Patrol Apprehensions by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border
	Feb-25	Mar-25	Apr-25	May-25	Jun-25	Jul-25	Aug-25	Sep-25	Oct-25	Nov-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26	Aug-26
Mexico	4238	4762	6127	6248	4117	3071	4426	5826	5515	4962	4109	4321	4561	6114	6620	6809	6461	5858	5637
Guatemala	1436	830	779	954	797	508	501	811	971	898	835	617	702	709	762	1245	1248	1178	1131
Honduras	563	370	438	436	377	301	440	519	399	445	390	339	413	492	576	675	755	762	670
Colombia	126	94	85	74	72	41	101	110	110	101	139	78	93	115	109	153	148	183	149
Venezuela	125	157	171	194	139	150	182	216	195	128	168	105	101	134	140	131	116	138	131
Ecuador	213	105	86	90	67	71	72	89	115	133	150	91	102	131	165	264	327	341	327
El Salvador	272	187	148	192	116	97	121	168	162	185	153	126	164	192	154	201	225	234	228
India	141	48	34	39	42	30	48	60	30	56	76	30	67	27	22	55	23	18	78
China	130	60	35	44	37	46	40	61	56	37	71	57	44	23	50	49	78	82	87
Other Countries	1105	566	473	453	302	277	386	526	435	408	385	312	352	333	368	429	474	502	432U.S.-Mexico Border Patrol Migrant Apprehensions by Sector
	Feb-25	Mar-25	Apr-25	May-25	Jun-25	Jul-25	Aug-25	Sep-25	Oct-25	Nov-25	Dec-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Apr-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26	Aug-26
Rio Grande Valley Sector	1289	1103	1339	1439	980	949	1362	1661	1603	1599	1365	1273	1381	1785	1802	1989	2231	2438	2101
El Paso Sector	2109	1628	1958	2011	1631	1096	1304	1447	1385	1265	1191	1040	1261	1220	1614	1877	1912	1529	1497
Tucson Sector	1335	1068	1327	1588	966	671	1067	1753	1740	1368	1062	1018	1020	1470	1688	1939	1758	1544	1528
San Diego Sector	1648	1200	1315	1394	895	555	715	946	960	833	855	798	850	947	958	1151	1039	1065	918
Laredo Sector	565	708	749	878	573	519	741	1203	873	1037	826	824	923	1241	1485	1505	1399	1322	1333
Del Rio Sector	894	928	1056	927	652	474	643	882	910	758	703	627	671	986	857	1000	991	933	885
Big Bend Sector	165	235	324	237	156	142	208	202	185	219	178	152	158	187	158	124	148	98	161
Yuma Sector	243	184	175	121	137	109	194	203	161	142	140	149	139	170	201	216	182	159	247
El Centro Sector	101	125	133	129	76	77	83	89	171	132	156	195	196	264	203	210	195	208	200
031
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 17/09/2026
One wonders what Colombian soldiers and police, who saw comrades killed or wounded in combat with drug-trafficking armed groups over the past year, think of the Trump admin "decertifying" Colombia while Venezuela—where security forces widely collude with those groups—is now fully "certified."
In Venezuela, thanks to my Administration’s arrest and removal of former illegitimate dictator and drug trafficker Nicolás Maduro, we are already seeing the results of growing cooperation with the country’s interim government against cartels, including the elimination of Tren de Aragua leader Niño Guerrero. Given the positive steps taken under interim President Delcy Rodríguez, I have determined Venezuela should no longer be designated as having failed demonstrably to fulfill its drug control commitments.  I expect to see continued, measurable progress from the interim government in dismantling narcoterrorist groups and stopping drug trafficking through Venezuela to the United States.
172
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 17/09/2026
The White House keeps Colombia "decertified" for not meeting anti-drug goals—but waives penalties—even though the new president is a gung-ho hard-line drug warrior. www.state.gov/releases/off...
The people of Colombia made the courageous choice to elect Abelardo de la Espriella as President.  He has pledged to lead an aggressive campaign against coca cultivation and cocaine production, which reached record levels under the failed socialist policies of his predecessor.  Colombia is poised to resume its place as our foremost security partner in the hemisphere, and the country’s military, police, prosecutors, and courts now finally have a worthy champion in President de la Espriella.  If, as expected, Colombia makes progress on aggressive coca eradication and dismantling its narcoterrorist networks over the coming year, I will consider lifting the country’s “failed demonstrably” status, which remains in place solely due to the incompetence and chaos produced by the previous far-left government in office throughout the bulk of the past year.
153
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 16/09/2026
Trying to measure drug seizures in the US is a terrible mess, as this 2019 Congressional Research Service report explains. It should be more of a scandal that we don't even measure *this* well. www.congress.gov/crs-product/...
Notably, there is no central database housing information on illicit drug seizures from all law enforcement agencies. In addition, there is not a set of discrete, yet comprehensive, drug seizure datasets that, if combined, could tally illicit drug seizures for all of the United States. Rather, there are a number of datasets and systems that contain some information on drug seizures.
120
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 16/09/2026
"The State Department on Tuesday notified Congress that it will reprogram $52 million in foreign military financing [FMF] from Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia." That would roughly double FMF to those four countries. apnews.com/article/fore...
FOREIGN MILITARY FINANCING PROGRAM
[Budget authority in thousands of dollars]
Country/Program
Budget
Authority
Colombia
...-
37,025
Costa Rica
FATHEREA
10,000
Ecuador
10,000
Estonia
...
10,000
Europe/Eurasia
100,000
Latvia
10,000
Lithuania
10,000
Mongolia
3,000
Morocco
20,000
Panama
2,000
Thailand
10,000
Vietnam
12,000
Western Hemisphere Regional (including Peru)
20,250
164
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 15/09/2026
The photo in this tweet is from Ecuador, interestingly: www.dvidshub.net/image/991343...
U.S. Marines @USMC: "Security Reinforcement" - photo of a helmeted Marine stringing barbed wire on a fence, but no location is given.
02211
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 15/09/2026
As this post on my blog lays out, "The reasoning behind this event is important, though it takes a few sentences to explain." See adamisacson.com/monday-the-2...
Too many current political discussions start from the premise that protecting populations from violence requires restricting rights, eroding checks on executive power, or tolerating abusive behavior.

This event, held in New York concurrent with the UN General Assembly, will challenge this status quo by showing how states and civil societies can deliver short-term improvements in citizen security without sacrificing civic space or accountability. It will focus on recent experiences in Latin America.

Across the Americas, governments and civil society are delivering short-term security gains while upholding rights and democracy. They are doing so through a wide variety of innovative community interventions, policing adjustments, public space efforts, social services, and improved transparency and participation.
010
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 15/09/2026
What an absolutely remarkable thing for ICE to do, one day before House Republicans hold a hearing on the brutality of the Ortega-Murillo regime in Nicaragua. www.expedientepublico.org/ice-detains-...
Expediente Público: ICE Detains Luis Galeano, Nicaraguan Journalist Exiled and Stripped of Citizenship by the Ortega-Murillo Regime
septiembre 14, 2026House Foreign Affairs Committee: Confronting the Totalitarian Ortega-Murillo Regime
Meeting Status:
Rescheduled
Hearing
Date:
Tue, 09/15/2026 - 2:00 PM
Location:
2200 Rayburn
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 11/09/2026
Besides, aerial fumigation didn't work. As WOLA demonstrated back in 2015, coca kept increasing in the mid-2000s even as fumigation increased. Manual eradication was more effective (though also flawed when not accompanied by state presence and services). www.wola.org/analysis/eve...
Chart showing coca increasing during the mid-2000s even as fumigation reached record levels. Title reads "2004-2007: Fumigation Disappoints."
032
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 11/09/2026
Colombia’s police are reviving aerial fumigation of coca crops with herbicides, with a test project using 2 planes in Putumayo department (where Plan Colombia ops began in 2000). Colombia suspended this practice in 2015, citing public health concerns. www.policia.gov.co/noticia/comu...
Plan Piloto Aspersión Aérea Policía Nacional
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 10/09/2026
See, this is why I don't stay at the Overlook Hotel.
A Kubrickian shot, from a State Department tweet, of Secretary of State Rubio's wife and Abelardo de la Espriella's wife, during Tuesday's visit to Colombia.
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 10/09/2026
The Trump admin has put 4 Ecuadorian criminal groups/gangs on the US terrorist list. It's not clear what the strategic value is. Here's a graphic the Ecuadorian outlet Primicias made, using @acleddata.bsky.social data, showing 48 criminal groups. Lots of room for growth, right?
A bubble graph showing 48 criminal groups mentioned in press reports in Ecuador.

Los Lobos
Los Choneros Los Tiguerones
• Los Chone Killers Los Aguilas
•Los Lobos Box
Los Lagartos
Los Igualitos
Los Fenix CDF: Comandos de la Frontera (COL) • Los Freddy Kruegers Mafia-18 Latin Kings • Los PepesLos Carniceros
Los R FARC Disidencia - Frente Oliver Sinisterra (COL) |
| Los Lobos Espejo Comuneros del Sur (COL)
Los AK47• Los Netas
FARC Disidencia - Frente Ivan Rios (COL) • Los Duendes •Los Silenciosos Los R7
El Tren de Aragua (VEN)
Los Borrachos FARC Disidencia - Segunda Marquetalia (COL)
FARC Disidencia - Frente Carolina Ramirez (COL)
• Los Enjoyados Los Cuestas Los Vatos Locos Clan del Golfo (COL)
•FARC Disidencia- Guerrillas Unidas del Pacífico (COL)
Los Maracuchos
Nueva Generacion PGP
Los Malditos Volados • UL 091 • Los Tijeras
Los Esmeraldeños FARC Disidencia - Frente Raul Reyes (COL)
Familia Alkaeda
Los Pikas
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 10/09/2026
3 of the last 4 boat strikes have been in the Caribbean. “We haven’t had a strike in the Caribbean Basin in almost 5 weeks. Do you know why? It’s not because we stopped looking. It’s because no one wants to get on a boat anymore and do that. So it’s been effective.” —Marco Rubio, *last December*.
All deaths charted out by day and ocean. Here's the CSV:

Date,People Killed,Location
2-Sep-25,11,Caribbean
15-Sep-25,3,Caribbean
19-Sep-25,3,Caribbean
3-Oct-25,4,Caribbean
14-Oct-25,6,Caribbean
16-Oct-25,2,Caribbean
17-Oct-25,3,Unspecified
21-Oct-25,2,Eastern Pacific
22-Oct-25,3,Eastern Pacific
23-Oct-25,6,Caribbean
27-Oct-25,15,Eastern Pacific
29-Oct-25,4,Eastern Pacific
1-Nov-25,3,Caribbean
4-Nov-25,2,Eastern Pacific
6-Nov-25,3,Caribbean
9-Nov-25,6,Eastern Pacific
10-Nov-25,4,Caribbean
15-Nov-25,3,Eastern Pacific
4-Dec-25,4,Eastern Pacific
15-Dec-25,8,Eastern Pacific
17-Dec-25,4,Eastern Pacific
18-Dec-25,5,Eastern Pacific
22-Dec-25,1,Eastern Pacific
29-Dec-25,2,Eastern Pacific
30-Dec-25,11,Eastern Pacific
31-Dec-25,5,Unspecified
23-Jan-26,3,Eastern Pacific
6-Feb-26,2,Eastern Pacific
9-Feb-26,3,Eastern Pacific
13-Feb-26,3,Caribbean
16-Feb-26,11,Eastern Pacific
20-Feb-26,3,Eastern Pacific
23-Feb-26,3,Caribbean
8-Mar-26,6,Eastern Pacific
19-Mar-26,2,Eastern Pacific
25-Mar-26,4,Caribbean
11-Apr-26,6,Eastern Pacific
13-Apr-26,2,Eastern Pacific
14-Apr-26,4,Eastern Pacific
15-Apr-26,3,Eastern Pacific
19-Apr-26,3,Caribbean
24-Apr-26,2,Eastern Pacific
26-Apr-26,3,Eastern Pacific
4-May-26,2,Caribbean
5-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
8-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
26-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
27-May-26,2,Eastern Pacific
29-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
30-May-26,3,Eastern Pacific
3-Jun-26,2,Eastern Pacific
16-Jun-26,3,Eastern Pacific
18-Jun-26,3,Eastern Pacific
21-Jun-26,8,Caribbean
23-Aug-26,2,Eastern Pacific
25-Aug-26,4,Caribbean
9-Sep-26,3,Caribbean
072
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 10/09/2026
230 reported people killed (including 23 unrecovered survivors).
66 reported attack events.
70 reported boats struck.
3 reported survivors recovered.
45 reported events in the Eastern Pacific. 19 reported events in the Caribbean. 2 reported events in unspecified locations.
32 events ordered by Southern Command Commander Gen. Francis Donovan (101 reported killed). 19 events ordered by President Donald Trump (76 reported killed). 14 events ordered by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (50 reported killed). 1 event listed as “under the direction of U.S. Southern Command” (3 reported killed).
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 10/09/2026
The boat strikes death toll hits 230. This is the first strike announcement not attributed to a *person* who ordered it, like Gen. Donovan. Don't know what that means. These have been happening for over a year. Still no deterrence. This is neither "peace" nor "strength." It's gruesome.
U.S. Southern Command
@Southcom
On September 9, under the direction of #SOUTHCOM, Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere executed a lethal kinetic strike on a go-fast vessel operating along established narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean. Confirmed intelligence revealed the vessel's active involvement in narco-trafficking. The operation killed three narco-terrorists.
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 09/09/2026
Note Rubio's use of passive voice when asked about confronting Colombia's ELN inside Venezuela. The ELN specializes in attacking oil infrastructure. Kicking this hornet's nest inside Venez could complicate Trump's oil deal and create new problems for Delcy's regime. www.state.gov/releases/off...
QUESTION:  (In Spanish.) There has been talk about the border of Colombia and Venezuela- And it is a critical issue.  President de la Espriella will discuss it now.  Will the ELN, designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, be bombed on the border?  Are there talks with Delcy Rodríguez?

SECRETARY RUBIO: (In Spanish.)  Well, without a doubt, that needs to be discussed, and it has been discussed in the past.  It’s not sustainable to have drug trafficking, criminal, and terrorist organizations operating within the national territory of another country and threatening others within this country.  They operate with impunity, and they have done so for a long time.  I’ve spoken about this for a long time.  This will undoubtedly be key to improving relations between Venezuela and Colombia because it’s a direct threat to Colombia.  Imagine if a criminal gang were operating from one territory across the border, entering your country, committing crimes, murders, and attacks, and then returning and hiding in another country.  That’s not sustainable. We have to confront it.  Obviously, we want to do so in cooperation.  And this has been discussed and will continue to be discussed, not only with the interim authorities now in Venezuela, but also with a future democratic government within Venezuela.  Because this will take time to resolve, but, without a doubt, we have to confront this threat.  This threat, as it exists now, cannot continue.  A solution must be found, and it must be quickly.
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 09/09/2026
That's fine: a hasty, all-military, rights-violating offensive can do huge harm, and there are many past mistakes to avoid repeating. This, from de la Espriella, was the most detail offered about what Colombia wants; Rubio didn't specifically endorse it. www.state.gov/releases/off...
Another very important point that I mentioned to Mr. Secretary, it’s our foreign policy is based on a main policy.  It’s that Colombia relates with the world from its own national interests.  It has sovereignty, autonomy, pragmatism, and also a long-term vision, and this is where we’re perfectly tuned with the United States.  We have now resources, geographic positions, human talent, and also very strategic assets.  Our diplomacy needs to turn those strengths in opportunities to be able to become the best partners of the U.S.  And we’re going to do it, Mr. Secretary, because this is a new rebirth.
010
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 09/09/2026
Anyone else surprised by the lack of specificity about US security aid to Colombia in yesterday's Rubio appearances? I thought they'd be recklessly speed-running a big military offensive, but yesterday's message was more like "we need more details." www.state.gov/releases/off...
SECRETARY RUBIO:  (In Spanish.)  First, two things. Number one, the relationship between the United States and Colombia concerning security issues has been on-going for almost 20-plus years; they’re the strongest in the hemisphere.  It was interrupted for a time, but not completely.

Obviously, we want to hear more details about what the President’s ideas are regarding how we can cooperate, but we are willing to do everything necessary within the bounds of the law in Colombia, within the decisions made by its sovereign leaders.

Obviously, we are willing to do a lot, everything possible between our two countries.  As to the Shield, the Shield is important.  The President has invited us to open an operations center in Medellin, for the entire region, not just Colombia.  And I think that the capability that exists in Colombia’s security system is enormous, it’s incredible. That hasn’t gone away.  Unfortunately, there were three or four years when they weren’t receiving the necessary resources.  But the key function of any government, any country in the world, is security.  It’s the most important thing any government does.  And we are willing to work in any way possible, in anything that is asked of us; they have to ask.  We are not going to dictate.  But whatever is asked of us, and is made possible for us, we are willing to provide.  If it is possible, if it is asked of us.  Because of the importance Colombia has and because it has been our strongest ally in security matters, and economic as well, in the region for over two decades.
120
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 08/09/2026
Some of the first US aid to Bolivia in nearly 20 years is… a rush planeload of riot-control shields and MREs 🤔.
Sean Parnell

@SeanParnellASW
Yesterday, the 
@DeptofWar
 - working with the 
@StateDept
 and 
@Southcom
 - delivered 1,000 protective shields and 12,500 MREs to vetted Bolivian security forces protecting peaceful citizens and maintaining public order.
 
This is Peace Through Strength.
33614
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 08/09/2026
Will this stop cocaine trafficking? Perhaps in some eastern Pacific routes. But no, because profits are high and there are many other ways to transship a substance whose production for an entire year could fit into 1% of a cargo container ship. From WOLA: www.wola.org/analysis/kil...
Even though cocaine production appears to be at record levels, the product itself is small and hard to detect when scattered across such a vast transit zone. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that global cocaine production quadrupled in the decade from 2014 to 2023, rising from 869 to 3,708 tons.[234] Conservatively assuming about 500 kilograms per cubic meter, that entire annual supply could fit into about 225 standard 20-foot shipping containers. (To give a sense of scale, a single large container ship carries about 20,000 such containers.) Break that amount across countless shipments, routes, and concealment methods, and interdiction becomes a classic “needle in a haystack” mission.
143
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 08/09/2026
If Southcom's new anti-“refueling station” operations near Ecuador are truly happening according to US and international law—responsible use of force, nobody tortured after arrest, etc.—then they’re a sharp improvement over the past year’s lethal, illegal boat strikes. www.southcom.mil/Media/
Southcom press release titles:

Interdiction of Narco-Terrorist Refueling Vessel, Sept. 7, 2026
Sept. 7, 2026
Interdiction of Narco-Terrorist Refueling Vessel, Sept. 5, 2026
Sept. 5, 2026
Interdiction of Narco-Terrorist Refueling Vessel, Sept. 3, 2026
Sept. 3, 2026
Interdiction of Narco-Terrorist Refueling Vessel, Sept. 2, 2026
Sept. 2, 2026
Interdiction of Narco-Terrorist Refueling Vessel, Aug. 28, 2026
Aug. 28, 2026
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 04/09/2026
So Colombia's civilian and military leadership are posing in front of dead bodies now? During a 2000s crackdown, Álvaro Uribe cited security statistics. This is bloodlust. Take this to its logical conclusion, and Colombia's government will start putting human heads on pikes like in medieval Europe.
Abelardo De La Espriella
@ABDELAESPRIELLA - tweet posing in front of dead bodies wrapped in white sheets

Hoy es un gran día para Colombia. La Operación Centinela de la Patria dio un golpe contundente al narcoterrorismo: gracias a una acción impecable de nuestra Policía Nacional y de un comando especial de la DIJIN, fue dado de baja alias Naím o “Bendito Menor”, uno de los criminales más peligrosos del país.
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 02/09/2026
Here are some of the many other ways to move cocaine, from WOLA's July report: www.wola.org/analysis/kil...
It is crucial to recall, too, that “small boats on the high seas,” which the boat strikes aim to target, are just one of many options available to cocaine traffickers moving their illicit product from South America to the United States. Other methods include:

Smuggling inside shipping containers aboard boats carrying licit cargo. No estimates exist for how many tons of cocaine are smuggled this way each year, because it is impossible to know what has gone undetected. However, large-scale container seizures have become more frequent in recent years, especially at European ports.[236]
Submarines and semi-submersible craft. These have larger payloads than small boats and are harder to detect. Authorities in Colombia and Ecuador periodically raid sites, often hidden in dense Pacific mangrove estuaries, where traffickers build these vessels.[237]
Small boats making short hops up the coasts of South and Central America. This is more time-consuming than using the open ocean and probably requires paying off more corrupt authorities along the way. However, it involves less time in international waters and is less vulnerable to interdiction, lethal or otherwise, from U.S. forces.
Overland transshipment, usually along road networks, perhaps combined with shorter maritime routes. Land routes are the principal vector for migrant smuggling, and drugs are harder to detect and easier to conceal than humans.
Riverine routes. Traffickers are particularly using the Orinoco and Amazon rivers, and their tributaries, to move cocaine to eastern areas of South America, closer to markets in Europe. The Defense Department’s Humire testified that, in response to the boat strikes, traffickers’ “movements shifted eastward through Venezuela and Guyana into Suriname.”[238]
Aerial routes. Smuggling via small aircraft appears to be less frequent than it was during the 20th century, as U.S.-backed “airbridge denial” programs in Colombia, Peru, Honduras, and elsewhere—which today rarely kill people …
070
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 02/09/2026
"Congratulations" to DOD for reducing small-boat trafficking on specific high-seas routes. If that was the only way to move cocaine, maybe you'd have something to show for killing 227 people with no evidence. But there are many alternate routes—and zero evidence of reduced cocaine supplies.
Kingsley Wilson

@PressSecDOW
🚨 
@Southcom
’s counternarcotics operations over the past year have driven RECORD REDUCTIONS in illicit maritime activity:

- 65% reduction in the Western Caribbean
- 60% reduction in the Eastern Caribbean 
- Nearly 50% reduction in key areas of the Eastern Pacific
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 02/09/2026
The last strike took place on August 25.
Chart showing strikes over time.
052
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 02/09/2026
The first of the Trump admin's lethal, illegal boat strikes happened 1 year ago today. They're still happening. The death toll has spiraled to at least 227. See WOLA's running tally: www.wola.org/2025/11/us-m... See our July 24 report, "Killing Spree": www.wola.org/analysis/kil...
227 reported people killed (including 23 unrecovered survivors).
65 reported attack events.
69 reported boats struck.
3 reported survivors recovered.
45 reported events in the Eastern Pacific. 18 reported events in the Caribbean. 2 reported events in unspecified locations.
32 events ordered by Southern Command Commander Gen. Francis Donovan (101 reported killed). 19 events ordered by President Donald Trump (76 reported killed). 14 events ordered by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (50 reported killed).
25529
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 01/09/2026
One last screenshot before I delete the app:
Google Maps “lake America”
4187
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 31/08/2026
ICE has almost completely stopped deporting Mexican citizens across the land border. It’s flying most to Mexico’s far south. ICE deports over 1,100 3rd-country citizens per month at the land border—then Mexico’s government buses them to the far south. Things in Mexico's far south are very bad.
FROM APRIL TO JULY 2026
ICE FLIGHT MONITOR COUNTED 408
DEPORTATION FLIGHTS TO INTERNAL MEXICAN DESTINATIONS.
39,717
MEXICAN CITIZENS DEPORTED
TO INTERIOR MEXICAN DESTINATIONS IN APRIL TO JUNE 2026.
95%
DEPORTATIONS OF MEXICAN CITIZENS TO THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO IN JUNE.
THE MIGRATION POLICY UNIT COUNTED
119 DEPORTATIONS INTO NOGALES IN JUNE, A DECREASE COMPARED TO THE JANUARY-APRIL AVERAGE OF 1,511 PER MONTH.A freeze in land deportations, and a drop in deported citizens of Mexico.
hNogales, KBI had been receiving many Mexican citizens deported from the United States until April 13, 2026, when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) implemented a major policy shift: halting most deportations of Mexican nationals across the land border. Instead, ICE is now deporting most Mexican citizens by air deep into Mexican territory, in most cases to the cities of Villahermosa, Tabasco, and Tapachula, Chiapas, near Mexico's southern border with Guatemala, but also to Mérida, Yucatán; Cam-peche, Campeche; Tulum, Quintana Roo; Huatulco, Oaxaca; Morelia, Michoacán; and Mexico City.ICE's easily preventable actions are worsening trauma and desperation in Tapachula
KBI and Fray Matías have encountered a large number of cases of ICE failing to return people's official identity documents-pass-ports and ID cards-upon their deportation.
This is true of both Mexican and non-Mexican citizens, although it appears to be happening more frequently to non-Mexican citizens. So not only are people being dropped deep in an unfamiliar country with no clear way to regularize their status or support themselves: many are also forced to fend for themselves with no way to prove who they are or what their nationality is.
Between December 2025 and July 2026, KBI interviewed 387 Mexicans deported through
Nogales. Of them, 42% reported that their be-longings-including identification documents, money, and other valuables-were not retur-ned.
Separation from family members in the United States multiplies the trauma. Of Mexican citizens deported into Nogales with whom KBI interacted, 58 percent reported being separated from U.S. citizen family members by deportation. In some cases, parents said that ICE did not afford them any opportunity or choice to bring their U.S.-born children with them or to make childcare arrangements in the United States.Flight from the United States carrying deported persons lands at Tapachula International Airport, Chiapas.
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 29/08/2026
Looks like I owe an apology to the annoying kids with the Che Guevara posters on their dorm walls, for telling them that reality is actually more nuanced than portrayed in Rage Against the Machine songs.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
BREAKING NEWS: The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY! At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer. This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future, while helping to continue to set Venezuela on a course toward Tremendous Success and Great Prosperity. This Transaction will greatly strengthen the already growing relationship between Venezuela and the United States! Thank you for your attention to this groundbreaking matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J.
TRUMP
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 29/08/2026
Oh, that guy. theintercept.com/2015/07/06/c...
The intercept: At a time when the State Department strategized over how best to keep Zelaya out of power while not explicitly endorsing the coup, Clinton suggested using longtime Clinton confidant Lanny Davis as a back-channel to Roberto Micheletti, the interim president installed after the coup.

During that period, Davis was working as a consultant to a group of Honduran businessmen who had supported the coup.
052
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 28/08/2026
Just got my 500th perfect puzzle on NYT Connections. (I’m not good at many things, let me have this.)
Statistics
630
Completed
99
Win %
2
Current Streak
153
Max Streak
500
Perfect Puzzles
BADGES
Tap on any badge to view it in detail.
221
Purple First
500
250
Perfect Puzzle
JUST EARNED
x57
Reverse Rainbow
Aug. 27,2026
View all badges
Purple First
D 221/250
MISTAKE DISTRIBUTION
500
1
2
3
4
89
22
10
9
2120
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 28/08/2026
Still unchanged on my phone
110
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 26/08/2026
The 2-month lull in boat strikes (following the Venezuela earthquakes) is over. 6 killed this week.
Chart showing boat strikes over time. Big gap between June 21 and August 23.
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 26/08/2026
227 reported people killed (including 23 unrecovered survivors).
65 reported attack events.
69 reported boats struck.
3 reported survivors recovered.
45 reported events in the Eastern Pacific. 18 reported events in the Caribbean. 2 reported events in unspecified locations.
32 events ordered by Southern Command Commander Gen. Francis Donovan (101 reported killed). 19 events ordered by President Donald Trump (76 reported killed). 14 events ordered by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (50 reported killed).
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