Sign in

Jennifer Lang

@actuarialeye.bsky.social
383 followers 497 following 95 posts

Sydney based actuary and director looking at the world through an actuarial eye. Lots of statistics, often feminist. She/her

PostsRepliesMedia
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The Kinks: Sunny afternoon (starts "the taxman's taken all my dough")
010
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
There is a difference in culture, sure, but providing there is good shade and greenery, just look at what George st is becoming to realise that Australians do congregate in public spaces if you provide good infrastructure. And the Sth parts of Darling Harbour that the intelligentsia love to hate.
030
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Thanks that makes a lot of sense.
050
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
And I'm curious whether you think it is important/ a good idea for the census to collect data on how many people are trans (assuming they can do it well)? I thought it would be (eg for service provision, etc) which is why all the official queer orgs are supporting it? But do you agree?
140
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Thank you. Much food for thought for this actuary. Many insurance companies are going down a similar path right now, with similar consequences I imagine.
070
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Came here to point you to this study which you might find interesting. Of course you may have already seen it. espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:3f08...
espace.library.uq.edu.au
UQ eSpace
The University of Queensland's institutional repository, UQ eSpace, aims to create global visibility and accessibility of UQ’s scholarly research.
010
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
I do love these, which are all over Italy and Spain, but they work well because people are happy to spend their time there catching up with their neighbours, rather than inside in their own homes, helped by the homes being smaller there. In Australia, just creating a square wouldn't create that.
000
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Did you see this from Australia? Pretty exciting given Queensland's often more conservative politics on other issues. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05...
abc.net.au
Surfers Paradise ditches cars for pedestrians as esplanade closed for good
The Gold Coast council has voted to permanently close part of the Surfers Paradise Esplanade despite division over traffic and business impacts.
020
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Plus improving public transport and active infrastructure like Paris can reduce car transport massively
000
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
I think the reason Bondi Beach doesn't have a train (it stops 2km away and then you have to catch a bus, was finished in the 70s) is that the locals didn't want all the people from the suburbs coming to their beach.
010
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
I love the new cycle ramp up to the Sydney Harbour Bridge, which was built in the teeth of local opposition (which meant that it was designed to be absolutely lovely, to spike complaints), and now that its open, many of them have now said how lovely it is. www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/cur...
transport.nsw.gov.au
Sydney Harbour Bridge Cycleway Ramp
The Sydney Harbour Bridge Cycleway Ramp is now open! Sydneysiders and visitors can say goodbye to 55 stairs and hello to a new 170m long bike ramp, making riding over Sydney’s stunning harbour accessi...
0537
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
I’ve published my annual reading list for 2025 here, as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular highlights from this year’s books, which, as always, are a bit of an eclectic mixture.https://actuarialeye.com/2026/01/26/what-did-i-read-in-2025/
actuarialeye.com
What did I read in 2025?
I’ve just published my annual reading list for 2025 here, (a little late, but its still January!) as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular h…
022
Reposted by Jennifer Lang
Political Gadgets @politicalgadgets.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
We've literally been working on this for years. Our new database of politicians declared interests is now live. Want to know who has accepted hospitality from Sportsbet, or is a member of a gun club... politicalgadgets.com/Interests/db...
01411
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Someone will always do it! "The Opposition’s [NSW, Australia] proposed license plate scheme would require specific rider cohorts [under 18s, commercial, share bikes] to have a government issued license plate attached to an e-bike when in use." nswliberal.org.au/news/e-bike-...
nswliberal.org.au
E-bike Reform After Overnight Incidents
Following two separate e-bike incidents last night, Shadow Minister for Transport Natalie Ward has called on Transport Minister John Graham to urgently act, accusing the Minns Labor Government of putting ideology ahead of community safety.
010
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Oh, and unlike many other countries, Australia had very few COVID-19 deaths in 2020, because of those closed borders.
020
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
My colleague @rhsl-fiaa.bsky.social who did the international analysis did try some of that analysis early on, but from memory there are too many variables!
000
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Yes we do, so far. Although we do it by cause of death, rather than in aggregate so (for example) cancer deaths stayed on the improvement trajectory throughout the period, whereas some other causes increased or stayed steady.
030
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
In 2020 with the borders closed, Australia didn't have a flu season, and so winter deaths were much lower than normal.
120
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
In our view, the “new normal” level of mortalitywill continue to improve, but we expect it to stay above the pre-pandemic trend for some time. Our baseline prediction for 2025 implies that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a three-year pause in mortality improvement. #ends
2291
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Worldwide mortality experience since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2024) shows excess deaths over that period in almost every country measured. Australia (+6%) was below average, and New Zealand (+0.1%) the lowest we measured.
Graph showing excess mortality for the period 2020-2024 in 40 selected countries across the globe.
212680
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Mortality rates from other causes were quite mixed compared with previous years, with other respiratory diseases (eg pneumonia +10%) and lower respiratory conditions (+5%) higher than anticipated, and deaths from cancer (-2%) and ischaemic heart disease (-3%) lower than the baseline.
170
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Covid-19 mortality was at a similar level in 2024 as 2023, contrary to our prediction of a reduction in mortality rates.
Graph showing mortality rates in Australia from December 2019 to December 2024, with waves of high mortality roughly every six months, and the 2024 mortality rates higher than the predicted line of reduction since 2023.
1101
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
You can see a very high level view of mortality rates over the last decade in this graph, which shows the standardised (for age and sex) mortality rate in each calendar year since 2015.
Graph of standardised mortality rates showing the line of average improvement 2015-2019, and showing that all mortality rates from 2021 onwards were significantly higher than the line assuming improvement continued from 2015, with 2022 furthest away from the line.
270
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
We predicted that overall mortality in Australia would return to the levels of improvement we'd seen before Covid-19. Actual mortality was slightly higher than that (0.4%), but not materially.
1110
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
The Actuaries Institute of Australia recently published our review of mortality in 2024, which you can find here. content.actuaries.asn.au/resources/re.... A quick summary of our major conclusions #thread.
content.actuaries.asn.au
12813
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
That's a good question. I'm reading that this set of data essentially uses numbers of deaths from 2015-2019 as the baseline (rather than a mortality rate). If the immigration and ageing patterns are consistent, that isn't an issue, but if they've changed, the projection could be misleading.
020
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
God rest ye merry gentlemen for the Christian song and How to Make Gravy by Paul Kelly for the secular one (very Australian choice) www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYqI...
youtube.com
Paul Kelly - How To Make Gravy (Official Video)
YouTube video by Paul Kelly
020
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
I use carshare (I don't own a car) and its half the price of owning the car. But people still are surprised that I'm happy to pay $30 to drive to my choir rehearsal if the weather is too bad to walk.
140
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
When I did the Tour de Mont Blanc (France, Italy, Switzerland) there were public buses AND banned private parking at many trailheads. We were on a group tour, but still used the public buses in most cases as they were the best option! So much better than the overfull parking lots we have here in Oz.
020
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Thanks, yes will fix!
010
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Bottom line is, increased global heating caused by climate change is and will be directly bad for human health and mortality, as well as all the other impacts on our world.
050
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
There's a whole lot of caveats around this - we could mitigate the worst experience - but there will also be other causes of death not counted here, like bushfire pollution, natural disasters, and increased tropical disasters.
130
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Further research (repackaged by Our World In data) concluded that heat related deaths would increase by 7.68 per 100,000 people by 2030, 20.39 by 2050, and 49.93 by 2090. that’s an increased death rate of 1%, 3% and 7% in 2030, 2050 and 2090 respectively.
100
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
The research I found, from Our World in Data, shows that in the hotter months, Australia is already getting around 0.6% extra deaths every summer due to climate change related heatwaves, or 300-350 extra deaths.
110
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Most deaths in heatwaves don't mention heat on the certificate. You probably pictured someone passing out from heat stroke. But this is not how most people die from “heat”. They die from conditions such as cardiovascular or kidney disease, respiratory infections, or diabetes.
110
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
The extra deaths will mostly be at older age groups, and among those who find it harder to shelter from heat. There are likely to be other climate related reasons death rates will increase – extra pollution from fires, more tropical diseases, natural disasters not included in this number.
110
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating.
110
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
I've written a new blog post about Climate change and mortality in Australia actuarialeye.com/2025/11/10/c...
actuarialeye.com
Climate change and Mortality – what can we expect?
In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating. The extra deaths will mostly be at older age group…
240
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
In Sydney, Australia, Citymapper does this, using the underlying open source map. It also gives you three options depending on your level of comfort with traffic. It's not perfect, but WAAAAY better than google, which doesn't even seem to notice bike lanes half the time.
140
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Lucrezia Borgia's hair ( and possibly her rings?) are in a museum in Milan
Lock of hair in a glass case on top of a stand with jewelled rings and lockets
1436
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
From memory NZ COVID has always been less than Oz. 2022 the big year in both countries, but lower in NZ. The actuaries institute in Oz will be putting out some international research in a couple of months so I'll post it here.
150
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
I'm also curious about this, the Covid experience in the last couple of years is significantly better than Australia (very similar before). Vaccination rates don't seem that different. NZers seemed to have retained a bit more of the idea of not going out when you're sick etc - cultural differences?
1162
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
Definitely true but I did love how easy it was to get across the river, so many bridges for pedestrians and cyclists. Of course I was comparing to Sydney Australia which is not much of a comparison.
000
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
I know Paris gets all the credit in France, but I stayed in Toulouse for two weeks last year, and the whole centre was just lovely, hardly any cars, bike share available everywhere (and integrated with the metro system), so many squares to hang out in. www.toulouse-tourisme.com/en/prepare-f...
toulouse-tourisme.com
Getting around Toulouse by bike - Toulouse Tourisme
Cycling is a very practical and eco-friendly way to get around Toulouse with more than 600km of cycling facilities and 300km of cycle paths.
1968
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Thanks!
010
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Hi Denis, I still follow your stats, and wondered if you know whether vaccination rates or doses etc in Australia are still being published? I've not looked for a while, and the actuaries are thinking of including them in our annual mortality report.
120
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
The full analysis is shown here. /ends www.actuaries.digital/2025/03/20/c...
actuaries.digital
COVID-19 Deaths the Key Driver for 2024 Excess Mortality to November - Actuaries Digital
In their latest article, the Mortality Working Group shares excess mortality analysis for the first 11 months of 20224.
020
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Our projected deaths were calculated using 2023 mortality rates as a starting point, with long term rates of improvements from non respiratory causes, the same mortality rates for respiratory diseases as 2023, and an assumption of reduced deaths from Covid-19. www.actuaries.digital/2024/04/24/e...
actuaries.digital
Excess Mortality: Considerations in Moving Away from a Pre-pandemic Baseline - Actuaries Digital
The Mortality Working Group is planning to make a significant change to the baseline (or expected number of deaths) used when measuring excess mortality for Australia.The Working Group intends to move...
120
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
The table below shows all major causes of deaths for the eleven months to November 2024, with the overall picture showing 1,400 more deaths than our prediction, all of which is explained by the extra deaths from Covid-19.
120
Jennifer Lang @actuarialeye.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
For other causes of death, respiratory deaths (excluding Covid-19) were 7% higher than predicted, with five times as many deaths from Covid-19 as from influenza. Deaths from cancer wwere 2% lower than predicted.
130