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Up to €1.6 Billion for Users, €153 Million for Producers: Does It Matter Where SAF Support Lands?

Same bankability logic as for e-fuels: no compliance demand, no financeable plants. Voluntary purchases don't get debt over the line; a compliance market does — if the form is right. I made the case for the SAF version here: achimczerny.substack.com/p/up-to-16-b...

achimczerny.substack.com

Where the money enters the supply chain is the wrong question — what matters is how it is spent. Orders of magnitude, a bench experiment, and why per-litre money doesn’t build plants.

Glad we agree on pricing tonnes. Fungibility is real, which is why some proposals cap volumes or set separate targets instead of a conversion rate. On permanence, direct air capture into rock is like-for-like with fossil CO2. Tiny capacity today argues for compliance demand, not against it.

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OMG! Sooooo beautiful!! I have been there---but tooo long ago! Have to go back some day. Take my son with me! Wow!

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Thanks for sharing — a serious piece of work. Its core point: the case for market mechanisms — pay per tonne of CO2 avoided and let the market find the cheapest pathway. Letting direct-air-capture removals count for compliance is the logical endpoint; the July ETS proposal would take a first step.

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4 Ways Transport Researchers Can Have More Impact — Joan Walker (UC Berkeley) at ITEA 2026

Joan Walker has a compact answer to how transport research can have more impact: coordinate. Open data and code. Comparable methods and reporting. Trust and credibility. Better communication with policymakers. From our conversation at ITEA 2026 in Bergamo: youtube.com/shorts/QvAlI...

youtube.com

YouTube video by Achim I. Czerny | Aviation & Maritime Economics

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Europe earmarks up to €1.6bn of carbon-market money for airlines using sustainable aviation fuel — and €153m for the producers that make it. Placement matters less than you'd think. Form is everything: per-litre money moves money; it doesn't build plants. achimczerny.substack.com/p/up-to-16-b...

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On "whatever that means": the label hides the real question — which pathway earns it. That's what market mechanisms are for: price the carbon, keep support technology-neutral, and let competition reveal the right whatever. The administrator's guess is usually worse.

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Achim I. Czerny | Substack

Thanks, Damien! One caveat for Bart: that webinar predates the July ETS revision, so the EU-approach chapter has moved since. The podcast rec holds; for the current state of play I write up the economics at achimczerny.substack.com — two essays in, on exactly this.

achimczerny.substack.com

Click to read Achim I. Czerny on Substack. Launched 15 days ago.

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 17/08/2026

I am sure your mother will keep making fabulous art! My father has been so creative his whole life. His dementia is progressing fast, but it is absolutely amazing to see what he's doing, how much he loves it, and how much we love seeing him remain so creative and dedicated.

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 17/08/2026

So true. It really does start at home. If we can’t practice understanding and kindness with the people closest to us, we can’t expect to build a more peaceful world outside.

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 14/08/2026

Spotted a whale in the sky! 🐋✈️ You can look at all the pictures you want online, but seeing the Beluga in real life hits entirely different.

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 14/08/2026

As Emirati author and pioneering journalist Aysha Taryam once wrote, 'It is harder to unite than to divide.' This mural shows exactly that—bearing the crushing weight of trying to bring a fractured world together.

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 12/08/2026

I’m definitely not a biologist, but you’re on the right track! It’s the water, but specifically the tiny plants in it. Marine phytoplankton produce about 50% of Earth's oxygen via photosynthesis. Marine life uses a lot of it up, but what's left is so important for our survival! 🌊

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 12/08/2026

Spot on. Fuel shocks are hitting margins, but airBaltic was uniquely vulnerable with an incredibly low ~10% fuel hedge ratio for 2026. When geopolitics sent jet fuel soaring past $1,800/ton, that unhedged exposure collided with cash burn and grounded Pratt engines. Survival mode.

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 12/08/2026

Nature-based solutions like this are everything! 🌊 Beyond the climate crisis, our oceans are at the absolute forefront of what we need to protect. Fun fact: Marine organisms produce over 50% of the Earth's oxygen. If the ocean doesn't breathe, we don't either. Awesome to see NZ leaning into this!

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 11/08/2026

Spot on. The real issue isn't technological feasibility; it’s economic reality. eSAF currently costs about 7x more than conventional jet fuel ($5k+ vs ~$700 per metric ton). Until that cost premium collapses, these milestones are just drops in a very expensive bucket.

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 11/08/2026

Incredibly powerful. Time to spread those wings and fly!

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Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

What are the latest news on Heathrow's additional capacity program. I thought that it was dead, then I heard from a friend based in the London area that it isn't. What is it? What's your take?

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The climate lesson writes itself: don't prescribe technologies, price the externality. Make CO₂ a cost line and the same competitive machine starts hunting carbon. US sulfur trading and California's fuel standard both showed it: the cheapest compliance route is always the one nobody foresaw.

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 05/08/2026

Correct — and the mechanism deserves the spotlight. This is what competition does when a cost is visible: fuel is an airline's biggest expense, so the industry cut fuel burn per seat by roughly half over the same period, with no mandate telling anyone how.

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London is one of the most exciting aviation markets in the world right now. Routine use of Gatwick's second runway by 2030 will help handle surging traffic and boost healthy competition among London airports. It’s a massive milestone, though there's still a long way to go! ✈️

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Everyone assumes Brussels waters down carbon pricing under industry pressure. The 2026 EU ETS revision does the opposite for aviation: the 5,000 km scope limit expires in 2032 — the default becomes full coverage. New essay on what it gets right and wrong: open.substack.com/pub/achimcze...

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Universal truth. This needs to be standard signage for every hiking trail on Earth. 🌍🥾 #LeaveNoTrace

Above the clouds, it’s a whole different world. I don’t think I’ll ever get tired of this view. ☁️✈️ #Cloudscape

Great news for Stoke Space! 🚀 Expanding infrastructure means faster testing to solve the ultimate bottleneck: full reusability. Throwing away rockets keeps space transport unsustainably expensive. True affordability happens when vehicles fly repeatedly like airplanes. 🌌

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 03/08/2026

Thank you for sharing this breathtaking video. 🙏✨ A beautiful reminder that our planet is alive with quiet magic and hidden wonders. To see an arid desert instantly awaken into a sea of lilies shows just how deeply enchanting nature can be. 🌸🌍 #NatureLovers #Namibia #EarthMagic

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 03/08/2026

Incredible numbers! ✈️ Tracking over 153k commercial flights in a single day is a massive milestone. But with how fast global aviation is expanding, this record won't last long. We'll be hitting a new high score before we know it! 📈 #AvGeek #aviation #FlightTracking

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 03/08/2026

Your gut feeling? What do you think?

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 01/08/2026

Exactly. Geopolitics completely changes route economics. When detours drain profitability, carriers have no choice but to drop high-risk routes and prioritize their core regional networks.

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 01/08/2026

Fascinating research! Living in Hong Kong's dense skyscraper landscape, I'm curious: does your data view extreme vertical density like ours as a net economic win or a strain on infrastructure?

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 30/07/2026

"Correction: A huge thank you to snowdayblue.bsky.social for pointing this out! This beautiful quote is actually by environmental author David W. Orr from his book Earth in Mind, not the Dalai Lama. Beautiful words either way! ✨"

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 30/07/2026

Families belong together on long flights—parents and kids shouldn't have to pay extra for that.

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 29/07/2026

True, they are less comfortable—but wallet comfort matters more to most travelers! If long-haul narrow-bodies keep ticket prices low and eliminate annoying layovers, passengers will absolutely accept the trade-off. Price is king. 👑

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 29/07/2026

Thinking of everyone affected by Kumamoto 10 years ago. 🙏 Checking in from Shirahama Beach (Wakayama), far from the quake zone. It's incredibly peaceful here. The beach + onsen combo is amazing, and the water is perfect. Sending love to Japan today. ❤️ #Shirahama #Japan #BeachLife

"low-cost climate goals" is slightly misleading... It should be: "achieving climate goals at low cost"... Hope this clarifies!

Fascinating read! The "One Line" story perfectly shows how obscure trade rules shape our world. By dismantling protectionist barriers, it proves how global trade allows local innovations to scale, ultimately expanding consumer choice and lowering costs. 👟🌐

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Policy makers often miss basic economics, like using market mechanisms for low-cost climate goals. Teaching these fundamentals takes massive time and effort, but we must keep pushing the message. It's the only way forward. 🏛️

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Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 26/07/2026

Love the cover! Priya looks so cool. 😎 It really makes you think about how tough traveling still is for wheelchair users, whether by air, rail, or road.

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An amazing photo of an impressive aircraft indeed! Wow!

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 26/07/2026

Congratulations for reaching this milestone! Didn't know you were on YouTube. Will certainly have a look at it and subscribe to make it 10,001 subscriptions! 😉

Achim I. Czerny @achimczerny.com · 26/07/2026

The photos really look amazing. This must have been quite an experience. I have never been flying an airplane myself, and have only been flying in commercial airplanes until now. It's hard for me to imagine the feeling of flying such a small thing over a city like this. Truly impressive!