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Abul Rizvi

@abulrizvi.bsky.social
813 followers 18 following 523 posts

Interested in population and immigration policy. Father of 2 daughters and 2 grandsons. Collingwood supporter since 1968.

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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
This morning Tony Burke said Treasury NOM forecasts would, for the first time, be treated as targets. In 2025 he said ‘there is no magic number’. I called for NOM targeting in this speech to the NPC in 2024. youtu.be/2-srtoBV-Xc
youtu.be
IN FULL: Professor Michael Wesley & Dr Abul Rizvi's Address to the National Press Club of Australia
YouTube video by National Press Club of Australia
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Just waiting for Trump, Netenyahu & Murdoch press to attack her. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10...
japantimes.co.jp
Nobel Peace Prize goes to international jurist Navi Pillay
The committee said it awarded Pillay for her efforts to promote peace and international law.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
A bidding war on who can cut NOM the most is not very intelligent. Aren’t we a bit smarter than that? podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/c...
podcasts.apple.com
Coalition’s 'race to the bottom on migration' and former immigration official answers your questions
Podcast Episode · Inside Politics · 8 October · 38min
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Coalition’s proposed policy actions would not deliver their NOM target or their temporary entrant stock reduction target. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
independentaustralia.net
EXCLUSIVE: Coalition's migration targets clash with its own policies
From labour shortages to industry pressure, everything points to the Coalition failing to deliver on its latest promise to reduce migration. Dr Abul Rizvi reports.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Coalition won’t come close to delivering its NOM target of 100k in each of first two years. Those are political targets not policy targets. Bringing back the Ag visa would turbo charge exploitation & abuse of the asylum system. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Angus Taylor’s immigration plan misses the target – on politics and on policy | Abul Rizvi
The most surprising aspect of the Coalition’s policy is that in six pages of detail there is not a single mention of the labour market
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
More nuance in this than usual media on Canadian immigration policy. Canada reduced NOM from very high level in 23-24 to less than 200k in 2025 (in conjunction with a weak labour market), NOM rebounding strongly in last 2 quarters with a stronger labour market www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
theguardian.com
Would slashing migration tank the economy or reset Australia’s living standards? Canada may offer clues
Annual population growth for the North American nation has slowed to just 0.5% – and the economy is ‘adjusting’
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Detention & deportation is never easy nor cheap. Politicians who think they can quickly and cheaply implement ‘mass deportations’ either don’t understand this or are happy to mislead voters.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Gaming of the asylum system by agents/lawyers took off in 2015. Why has it taken over 10 years to act? Will the action work? www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10...
abc.net.au
Labor will go after lawyers trying to 'game' the visa system
Labor is moving against lawyers and migration agents accused of profiting from visa applications that have little prospect of success.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Hegseth is worried about bias in advice on future of warfare so he has appointed Musk to advise him - someone with heaps of $Billion defence contracts & zero conflict of interest!!! www.foxnews.com/politics/elo...
foxnews.com
Elon Musk lands new Trump administration role shaping future of American warfare
Elon Musk will co-lead Project Meridian with Palmer Luckey and Newt Gingrich to map future warfare domains and military technologies for the Pentagon.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Govt has managed this very poorly. The gaming was entirely predictable. www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
theguardian.com
Australian colleges warned ‘do not try to game’ student visas after last-minute enrolments for cancelled diploma soar
Julian Hill says educational providers are being closely watched by government after course attracted non-genuine students
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
For those who argue population ageing isnt an issue & Japan isn’t becoming increasingly reliant on overseas workers. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09...
japantimes.co.jp
Japan’s Specified Skilled Worker visa holders rise to record numbers
The number of foreign workers in the country on the visa reached a total 444,256 at the end of June, up 13.8% from six months earlier.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Concern of farmers about Burke’s recent immigration announcements do not relate to number of WHMs in OZ. They relate to (1) No of WHMs forced to work on farms. (2) Increased risk farmers using undocumented workers will be caught. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
independentaustralia.net
Coalition boxed in by working holiday visa policy
The Coalition’s opposition to tighter working holiday visa rules is at odds with its lower migration target, leaving few politically palatable options for achieving it.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
ABS this week published comprehensive data on all permanent migrants since 2000. It shows skill stream migrants, inc partners of skill stream migrants, perform extraordinarily well in OZ labour market. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/09...
johnmenadue.com
Settlement outcomes of permanent migrants are much better than media tells us
New ABS data show high employment, qualifications and earnings among skilled migrants and their accompanying families. The findings raise questions about calls for deep cuts to Australia’s permanent s...
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
There are better ways to hit NOM targets & reduce number of ‘permanently temporary’ than ramping up refusal rates. thepienews.com/australia-sq...
thepienews.com
Australia squeezes dependants as wider student migration questions emerge
Australia is squeezing access to dependant visas as the government moves to reduce net overseas migration, with wider questions emerging over its student migration settings and 295,000 student intake ...
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I was on The Brieging this morning discussing immigration policy. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com
Fox News joins Trump boycott + Australia's migration debate explained
Podcast Episode · The Briefing · 21 September · 39min
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
In 2019, I wrote this for SMH on Frydenberg’s assumptions in 2019 (back in black budget) of 270k per annum NOM & fertility of 1.9 births per woman. Today’s IGR assumes NOM of 235k per annum & fertility falling to 1.34 births per woman. Hence we age faster. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
smh.com.au
Dodgy population assumptions crucial to budget figuring
Contrary to the government's "congestion-busting" rhetoric, Treasury projects high fertility and migration rates, which conveniently bolster surplus forecasts.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
It’s good Burke commited to a NOM target. He announced some good initiatives and some poorly designed ones. But its the problems he failed to address that was disappointing. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
independentaustralia.net
Burke's immigration plan commits to net overseas migration targets
Tony Burke's immigration policy changes are like a Curate's Egg - good in parts, but are they enough to lower NOM to the targets Burke has set for himself?
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Before usual suspects start conspiracy theories behind fertility rate assumption in today’s IGR, remember OZ fertility rate is still one of highest in developed world & we will be one of the last developed nations to reach point where deaths exceed births.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
We live in an Australia where the left thinks no problems can arise from immigration levels & the right thinks every problem is caused by immigration. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
By fixating on immigration numbers, are our leaders missing the bigger picture for working Australians?
It can be tempting to blame grievance politics or the rise of One Nation for the tenor of current debate, but these are symptoms of a deeper malaise
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This is a beat up. Problem is not a shortage of WHMs. Number of WHMs currently in OZ at all time record contibuting massively to NOM. Problem is inability of farmers to attract enough WHMs to do farm work. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09...
abc.net.au
Farmers warn of food security impact from visa changes
Agricultural industries warn changes to the Working Holiday Maker program could threaten crops and Australia's food security.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Barnaby exposed huge gaps in ON policy on day of release. No target for permanent program; confused if his NOM target is negative 250k pa; backpeddled on disallowing skilled temporary entrants from bringing spouse/dep children. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/09...
johnmenadue.com
Barnaby Joyce exposes the gaps in One Nation’s migration plan
One Nation promises negative net migration and a major reduction in temporary entrants, but its policy leaves crucial questions unanswered about permanent migration, skilled visas and how its headline...
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Without a perm migration target, it’s impossible to work out change in stock of TEs or NOM outcomes (negative or otherwise). In 9 pages of policy manifesto, ON does not once mention permanent migration. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
independentaustralia.net
One Nation’s migration maths doesn’t add up
One Nation’s plan to slash temporary migration by 750,000 promises dramatic cuts, but its numbers, assumptions and economic consequences don’t add up.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It’s easy to say ‘mass deportation’. As Trump is finding, it’s much harder to do it. www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
theguardian.com
Pauline Hanson’s immigration cuts will cost ‘many billions of dollars’ to implement, former top official says
Former department deputy says One Nation’s hardline approach would require huge funding for enforcement, legal costs and detention centres
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Now have NOM targets for each party. Labor 225k; Coalition 170k; ON 130k. None say why their target is best for OZ longterm; or how target will be delivered; or consequences managed; or how problems in visa system fixed. But it’s good each has a target. It’s a start.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Having a large humanitarian program without adequate settlement services is not generosity. theconversation.com/around-90-of...
theconversation.com
Around 90% of refugee kids live in poverty in their first year in Australia: report
New research reveals how the visa someone arrives on shapes whether their first ten years are secure or spent in poverty.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Malinauskas & Cook push back against migration cuts likely linked to reduced allocation for state sponsored regional visas. It’s now mid Sept & only allocations for TAS and NT have been revealed. They wouldn’t be interested in DHA’s problems with mess visa system is in. www.afr.com/politics/fed...
afr.com
Major parties trying to appease One Nation on migration: Malinauskas
The South Australian premier has blasted Labor and the Coalition for joining One Nation in a race to the bottom on immigration.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
This is yet another example of govts making visa changes without a longterm NOM management framework. www.afr.com/policy/econo...
afr.com
UK backpacker surge turns holiday visas into de facto work permits
Australia is smashing the UK on backpacker numbers. The government granted 74,000 backpacker visas last year, while only 8000 Australians went the other way.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Many organisations demand places for the visas they like. Rarely do they consider what that means for NOM or the permanent migration program. helloleaders.com.au/article/who-...
helloleaders.com.au
Who will take care of older Australians if migration slows? | Hello Leaders AUS
Australia’s aged care workforce already relies heavily on migrant workers, while demand for workers continues to grow. With migration settings under review, providers need to understand what changes t...
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
This is a consequence of govt pretending NOM boom of 22-23 was just ‘catch-up’ & would just go back to ‘normal’ & not create huge problems. Delaying action has just made fixing the problems more difficult. www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politic...
thesaturdaypaper.com.au
‘A bit of biffo’: Inside the Chalmers–Burke stand-off
The home affairs minister is blaming the treasurer for the repeated failure to launch his immigration policy, which has now been rejected by cabinet at least five times.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Yes I agree. I wouldn’t abolish genuine test. Just rely on it much less.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
This is good but there should be no onshore legal capacity to switch to a course that is not designated by the minister as being in longterm demand. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09...
abc.net.au
Labor shuts down course linked to student visa misuse
The federal government is preventing new enrolments in a graduate diploma it fears is being used by non-genuine international students to switch courses and prolong their stay in Australia.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
If they score well on an exam, they are much less likely to avoid study.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Also, high refusal rates based on very subjective criteria are very resource intensive.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
That’s the problem. We should be focused on capability.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
If students are highly capable, why wouldn’t we want them to migrate? What’s wrong with an outstanding engineering student from Sydney university becoming a permanent resident? The key is if they are highly capable.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Yes. Make them sit a University entrance exam tailored to the proposed course with Govt determining the passmark to manage numbers.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Yes. It works OK in extreme circumstances but using it on a mass refusal basis is just unsustainable.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
It’s called the ‘genuine student’ test. It’s a bit like beauty. In the eye of the beholder.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Ramping up student visa refusal rates using highly subjective criteria is an untargeted, inefficient, opaque & ultimately unsustainable way of reducing NOM. Govt has to find a better way. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
independentaustralia.net
Ramping up student refusal rates is wrong way to reduce net migration
Labor’s opaque crackdown on student visa approvals is an inefficient and unsustainable way to reduce net migration.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
This is not a function of complexity. Its due to laziness & ignorance. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
smh.com.au
Five days later, Hanson still struggles to articulate migration policy
Hanson again appeared to confuse net migration with permanent migration, creating more uncertainty about One Nation’s actual policy.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
For years, Labor argued it didn’t need a NOM target because it wasn’t something govt managed. Coalition before it also didn’t manage NOM. It is good they both now realise importance of managing NOM. They now just need to get right how they are going to do it. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
independentaustralia.net
Labor's transformation on net overseas migration
The Albanese Government's plan reassures the public and requires the Minister to proactively report and manage net overseas migration.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Most important part of leaks to the OZ today is that the Minister will be required to report to cabinet on a quarterly basis on progress towards the NOM target. That changes everything. It’s what I called for in this speech to NPC. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-sr...
youtube.com
IN FULL: Professor Michael Wesley & Dr Abul Rizvi's Address to the National Press Club of Australia
YouTube video by National Press Club of Australia
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Inevitable they would do this. 2023 decision to increase intake without massive increase in settlement services was a mistake. Money saved should be used to address 110,000 unsuccessful asylum seekers in OZ. www.afr.com/politics/fed...
afr.com
Labor cuts refugee intake by a third
As it looks for ways to reduce migration, the government says the previous increase in the refugee quota to 20,000 was never intended to be permanent.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Many politicians calling for a mass deportation program. But copying Trump on this would be a costly mistake. A carefully designed removals strategy requires an understanding of how we got here & main source nations. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/08...
johnmenadue.com
Debunking mass deportation hype
Both One Nation and the Coalition have been talking up their mass deportation target of around 75,000 – with zero details of how that would be implemented or what it would cost. Abul Rizvi looks beyon...
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Most of these 200,000 will appeal cancellation decision. That will further clog up US courts until matter is resolved by US Supreme Court. It would be far cheaper (and legal) just to process the applications than try to override US law with an Executive Order. www.msn.com/en-au/news/o...
msn.com
MSN
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Net migration targets will continue to converge as more scrutiny is applied to how the targets are to be delivered. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
independentaustralia.net
Australia’s major parties converge on net migration targets
Labor, the Coalition and One Nation are edging closer on net migration targets as political realities collide with immigration rhetoric.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Ask why Hanson & Canavan want this visa quarantined from any cuts to immigration? A visa with no English or skill requirement but an extraordinary history of worker exploitation & abuse. www.smh.com.au/interactive/...
smh.com.au
They came to Australia to build a better life. The cost was more than they imagined
For workers, it’s an unparalleled earning opportunity. For Pacific nations, it offers economic stability at home. But there is a growing consensus that the architecture of the scheme puts its Pacific ...
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Why wasn’t immigration policy looked at through this ‘comprehensive’ lens when Parkinson Review was commissioned & O’Neil’s migration strategy released? www.afr.com/politics/fed...
afr.com
Economic implications played role in Labor’s migration policy delay
Although other factors were at play, cabinet members felt more work was needed to assess the impact of migration cuts on the economy, as well as specific sectors.
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
After 2 years of driving down NOM (well into negative territory), Canada in June Q26 increased study permits by 45% compared with June25. Universities & industry in Canada must be suffering whiplash. Highlights merits of steady & predictable management of NOM. Could our politicians learn from this?
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Abul Rizvi @abulrizvi.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Clare avoided the key question. Why did he increase the student national planning level by 25,000 when the govt was still is trying to reduce net migration? That led industry to ramp up recruitment only to force Hill to massively increase student refusal rates. youtu.be/AcdxXi_FKsA
youtu.be
Jason Clare questioned on net overseas migration in education sector
YouTube video by News24
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